广东人口死亡状况研究

本文利用 2 0 0 0年第五次全国人口普查资料 ,全面分析广东人口死亡水平的发展变化、地区和城乡差别、性别与年龄差异以及影响因素。     

农村人口非正常死亡现象分析

文章以实际调查的 4 40例农村人口非正常死亡数据为依据 ,分析了农村人口非正常死亡的主要方式和原因 ,非正常死亡人群的性别、年龄和文化程度等特征。意在探讨建立有效机制 ,遏止不断上升的农村人口非正常死亡趋势。     

中国老龄人口死亡公平性分析

目的：本研究旨在分析中国2000年和2005年不同社会经济状况的地区间老龄人口死亡的公平性,并对其可能的社会决定因素进行讨论。方法：应用标准化集中曲线和集中指数对中国老龄人口在地区水平的死亡不平等进行测量。资料主要来源于中国2000年人口普查数据和2005年全国1％人口抽样调查数据。结果：2000年和2005年。中国老龄人口总的死亡集中指数分别为-0．028和-0．022。按性别计算的老龄人口死亡集中指数2000年为-0．032（女性）和-0．020（男性）,2005年为-0．022（女性）和-0．020（男性）。结论：在中国,尽管老龄人口死亡略微向低社会经济状况的地区集中,但其集中程度并不强。提示中国老龄人口死亡在地区水平上具有较好的公平性。而且,老龄人口死亡微弱的集中有消弱的趋势．这主要归功于老龄女性死亡不平等的减少。     

1958～1962年四川省人口死亡研究

文章运用人口普查资料及新修地方志所载数据,对1958-1962年间四川省各地人口的非正常死亡进行估计。结果表明,在这几年中,四川全省非正常死亡人口多达940万,占灾前全省人口总数的13％。     

人口死亡水平的国际比较

利用各国的人口资料,使用婴儿死亡率和平均预期寿命这两个关于人口死亡的重要指标,比较中国和世界 人口的死亡水平和变动趋势。根据各国的人均收入,揭示人均收入和平均寿命的统计关系。     

20世纪90年代末中国各民族人口的死亡水平

本文根据第五次人口普查资料,及各民族不同的人口规模,提出了计算年龄组死亡率的不同方法,由此得到了各民族在20世纪90年代末关于人口死亡的指标。计算结果显示,从总体上说,中国各民族与10年前相比,死亡力有所下降,但也存在着一些不容忽视的现象,如女性婴儿死亡率高于男性的民族数增加,一些民族至今还保持着较高的死亡力。另外,对死亡变化出现异常的情况,本文从死亡的随机误差作了一定的解释。     

甘南藏族自治州男性人口生命表和死亡分析

本文用Brass曾生子女存活比估算儿童死亡率的方法和Gompertz死亡率定律等方法对甘南藏族自治州的“五普”男性人口的死亡和生存原始数据作了进一步的修匀和校正。在此基础上。我们用Farlle死亡概率法编制出了甘南藏族自治州男性人口的简略生命表．并通过生命表的结果分析了甘南州男性人口的死亡水平、死亡模式和死亡的性别格局。     

中国西部民族地区的人口生育与死亡状况浅析

西部民族地区包括中国少数民族人口最集中的8个省区,少数民族人口占全国少数民族人口的63.41%。受到这些地区本身历史的、自然的、民族的、以及社会经济发展水平等多种因素影响,其人口状况也表现为与中国中、东部很大的不同,具有自身显著的独特性。本文通过对历次人口普查资料和有关统计数据的分析,对中国西部民族地区的人口变动以及自然增长状况进行了系统地分析,得出了一些有意义的结论。     

The momentum of mortality change

Mortality change is not usually assigned much importance as a source of population growth when future population trends are discussed. Yet it can make a significant contribution to population momentum. In populations that have experienced mortality change, cohort survivorship will continue varying for some time even if period mortality rates become constant. This continuing change in cohort survivorship can create a significant degree of mortality-induced population change, a process we call the ‘momentum of mortality change’. The momentum of mortality change can be estimated by taking the ratio of e ₀ (the period life expectancy at birth) to CAL (the cross-sectional average length of life) for a given year. In industrialized nations, the momentum of mortality change can attenuate the negative effect on population growth of declining fertility or sustained below-replacement fertility. In India, where population momentum has a value of 1.436, the momentum of mortality change is the greatest contributor to its value.     

Effects of targets and aggregation on the propagation of error in mortality forecasts

Official forecasts of mortality depend on assumptions about target values for the future rates of decline in mortality rates. Smooth functions connect the jump‐off (base‐year) mortality to the level implied by the targets. Three alternative sets of targets are assumed, leading to high, middle, and low forecasts. We show that this process can be closely modeled using simple linear statistical models. These explicit models allow us to analyze the error structure of the forecasts. We show that the current assumption of perfect correlation between errors in different ages, at different forecast years, and for different causes of death, is erroneous. An alternative correlation structure is suggested, and we show how its parameters can be estimated from the past data.

The effect of the level of aggregation on the accuracy of mortality forecasts is considered. It is not clear whether or not age‐ and cause‐specific analyses have been more accurate in the past than analyses based on age‐specific mortality alone would have been. The major contribution of forecasting mortality by cause appears to have been in allowing for easier incorporation of expert opinion rather than in making the. data analysis more accurate or the statistical models less biased.     

贵州省环境人口容量现状及提高路径分析

本文使用“P—E—R”环境人口容量模型,利用1952-2002年的相关统计数据,从经济承载力和资源承载力两个角度,对贵州省环境的经济人口容量和资源人口容量进行了动态分析和综合描述。从可持续发展角度出发,针对贵州省环境人口容量的现状和问题,提出了提高环境人口容量的对策。     

A simple method to estimate insect mortality from field census data: A modification of the Kiritani-Nakasuji-Manly method

Various methods have been proposed to estimate demographic parameters such as mortality from field census data. Simple methods proposed earlier are applicable only for limited situations. For example, the Kiritani-Nakasuji-Manly method is applicable only if individuals are observable until their death. Improved methods proposed later are not subject to such limitations, but are not so widely used in the field of applied entomology, probably because of the complexity of the calculations involved. In this paper, I propose an intermediate method that requires only a pocket calculator, considering the practical convenience for field scientists. This method, which is a modification of the Kiritani-Nakasuji-Manly method, gives an estimate of the number of individuals entering a stage from the frequency of two stages when the stage duration is known.     

The end of population growth in Asia

This paper presents probabilistic population projections for five regions of Asia (South Asia, Central Asia, China region, Pacific OECD and Pacific Asia) and Asia as a whole. Over this century, Asia will experience very heterogeneous demographic development: Central Asia is expected to almost double in population and South Asia will become by far the world’s most populous region, rapidly surpassing the China region. Simultaneously, the Pacific OECD countries are likely to shrink in population size and experience extreme population ageing. The proportion of the population aged 60 and above in these countries (with Japan having the greatest weight) is expected to reach 50 per cent of the total population (with the 95 per cent uncertainty interval ranging from 35 to 61 per cent). The China region will experience a more rapid speed of ageing, with the proportion aged 60 and above expected to increase by a factor of four from 10 per cent in 2000 to 39 per cent in 2100.     

Direct and indirect effects on infant mortality in a high-fertility US population

This article examines the direct and indirect effects of social and demographic measures on infant mortality using data from a church directory of the Old Order Amish of the Lancaster, PA, Settlement. The sample includes all infant deaths and a simple random sample of survivors (total n=2013). The results reveal that the death of the immediately prior sibling directly increases the risk of infant death nearly 30%, net of other factors. Also, the risk of mortality in the first year increases as birth order increases, particularly at the highest orders (8–17 prior sibs). Infants of the youngest mothers (age 13) are nearly 10% more likely to die in the first year of life than are infants of mothers age 24, nearly all of which is indirect via parity, prior sib death and birth interval. Further analysis shows that families adapting more rapidly to external community pressures face a higher risk of infant death than families living in more stable areas. These relationships emerge even in this homogeneous population with a relatively high standard of living and a traditional lifestyle, Implications are that indirect effects should be included in research on teen pregnancy and infant survival, and might be especially important for studies in transitional geographic areas.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1993 meetings of Population Association of America, Cincinnati.     

青海民族地区人口与经济协调发展的几点思考

人口与自然是否相适应,直接影响人口与经济环境的发展。人口与环境不协调发展已成为当前制约青海全面推进小康进程的瓶颈。只有制定出符合青海民族地区实际的计生政策,才可能有效地、整体地推动青海民族地区的经济发展。     

大城市中的外来人口影响研究——以上海市为例

本文根据关于上海市外来常住人口2000年人口普查数据和2005年1%抽样调查数据的分析,详细阐述了上海市外来常住人口的现状特征,并且研究外来常住人口在上海的分布状况,从而更好地全面认识上海市外来流动人口的结构特征、地理分布、存在的主要问题等。本研究能够为上海市完善流动人口管理与服务、进一步做好工作、构建融洽的社会主义和谐社会提供参考。     

我国开发区人口发展规律初探——以国家级经济技术开发区人口发展为例

由于基础数据的不完备以及发展时间较短,开发区人口研究较为薄弱。以三个国家级经济技术开发区的人口发展为例,通过个案分析的研究方法,探讨开发区人口发展规律。开发区人口呈阶段性增长态势、人口增长以机械增长为主、劳动年龄人口比重大、暂住人口比例高、就业人口中通勤现象比较普遍。开发区人口发展态势主要受开发区两大转变的影响,即经济增长方式的转变和功能定位的转变。     

Mortality inequality in two native population groups

A sample of people aged 40–67 years, taken from a longitudinal register compiled by Statistics Finland, is used to analyse mortality differences between Swedish speakers and Finnish speakers in Finland. Finnish speakers are known to have higher death rates than Swedish speakers. The purpose is to explore whether labour-market experience and partnership status, treated as proxies for measures of variation in health-related characteristics, are related to the mortality differential. Persons who are single, disability pensioners, and those having experienced unemployment are found to have substantially higher death rates than those with a partner and employed persons. Swedish speakers have a more favourable distribution on both variables, which thus notably helps to reduce the Finnish–Swedish mortality gradient. A conclusion from this study is that future analyses on the topic should focus on mechanisms that bring a greater proportion of Finnish speakers into the groups with poor health or supposed unhealthy behaviour.