The EKC Hypothesis Does Not Hold for Direct Material Flows: Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis Tests for Direct Material Flows in Five Industrial Countries

This study analyses the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis (EKC) with direct material flow data from the USA, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands and Finland in the years 1975 to 1994. Recently, there has been a discussion concerning the relevance of the EKC hypothesis suggesting that also the intensity of material use should decline with income growth. The EKC hypothesis has not been widely tested with direct material flow data, and this paper presents one of the first attempts to do such tests. The results of the empirical hypothesis tests indicate that the EKC hypothesis does not hold in the case of aggregated direct material flows among industrialised countries like Germany, Japan, the USA, the Netherlands and Finland.     

Changing Industrial Metabolism: Methods for Analysis

Research in the field of industrial metabolism traditionally has been focused on measuring and describing physical flows of economic systems. The metabolism of economic systems, however, changes over time, and measuring material flows is insufficient to understand this process. Understanding the relation between economic activities and material flows can help to unravel the socio-economic causes of these physical flows. Three issues are addressed: The importance of spatial scales and trade flows, empirical analysis of relations between economic development and material flows, and treatment of behaviour of and interactions between stakeholders. For each of these issues, methods for analysis are suggested.     

The Material Intensity of Growth: Implications from the Human Scale of Production

Contemporary empirical studies on the resource intensity of the economic process provide evidence of a gradual de-linking between natural resources use and economic growth. Resource intensity is evaluated through the Domestic Material Consumption/Gross Domestic Product (DMC/GDP) ratio, defined as the material intensity index. Trajectories of this ratio support the optimistic view that economic output is becoming progressively less dependent on resource flows, hence GDP is gradually dematerialized. The present study asserts that the DMC/GDP indicator fails to take into account the biophysical properties of the production process which define the resource requirements of the economy. The present study proposes the “resources required for producing one unit of GDP per Capita (Income)”, as an alternative indicator for evaluating the resource requirements of the economy. The resource requirement, evaluated at the level of income, approximates the human scale of production; goods should embody certain biophysical properties in order to satisfy human needs. The trajectories of DMC/Income index for global growth rejects the vision of a dematerialized growth and the de-linkage of the economy from natural resources.     

Rapid Socio-Economic Transition and Material Flows in Japan

Material Flow Accounting (MFA) is a useful tool to describe interactions between the environment and human activities. An international comparison of economy-wide material flows over the past 25 years was undertaken for five industrialized countries and successfully described the similarities and dissimilarities of the studied countries. This paper shows the relevance of MFA to Japanese environmental policy issues and summarizes the characteristics of recent Japanese material flows based on the outcomes of the international comparison study. In addition, it attempts to analyze longer-term trends in demographic changes and economic growth, as well as changes in material and energy production/consumption. An attempt is also made to offer some insights on the upcoming matured and aging society.     

The Transport System and Society’s Metabolism in the UK

This paper analyses the interrelation between the transport system and measures of resource consumption such as material and energy consumption over a 60-year period (1937–1997) in the UK. Non-motorized transport and time consumption for mobility are estimated in addition to conventional measures of transport. During the period analyzed, the UK population grew by 20% while transport of goods and persons increased more than threefold and material and energy consumption almost doubled. The transport intensity of domestic material input (DMI) doubled to 300 ton-kilometers (tkm) per ton of DMI while the transport intensity of domestic energy consumption (DEC) doubled to 20 tkm per gigajoule (GJ) of DEC. Thus, while the material and energy intensity of GDP declined significantly, a well-established trend in many advanced countries, the transport intensity of materials and energy consumption rose. These findings suggest a close link between transport, economic development, and long-term structural transformations. In the case of personal transport, a rebound effect was also observed: whereas the average speed of transport has greatly increased, the average number of hours per day devoted to personal transport has not declined.     

Conditions for Maintaining the Sustainable Development Level of EU Member States

For years we have been observing the exponential trend of the economic growth, energy consumption, mineral resources use and greenhouse gas emissions. The human population is exerting an increasing pressure on the environment, which in the highly industrialised regions has lost its natural ability for bio-capacity. The measurement of the member states’ progress in achieving the sustainable development is an integral part of the European Union strategy. The article deals with methods of measuring the level of sustainable development and presents diversification of the EU member states according to the synthetic indicators, such as: domestic material consumption, import dependency, risky external energy supply, diversity index, ecological footprint and total carbon intensity. These determinants affecting potential of the EU states to maintain the achieved level of development in future.     

拉动经济增长的新兴消费产业研究——以老龄产业为例

中国三十年来的经济发展表明,在拉动中国经济增长的三种动力中对外出口会随国际形势的变化而呈现出不确定性与不可控性,政府投资仅仅是出口与消费受阻时所采取的权宜之计,具有波动性、滞后性特征,而基于消费需求尤其是老年消费需求基础上发展起来的老龄产业具有较高的稳定性和持久性,它能够促进生产力的持续发展,为国民经济的发展提供持久动力。所以,要从扩大消费内需入手,就必需大力发展以物质和服务消费为导向的老龄消费产业,使之成为推动中国经济发展的战略选择与重要增长极。     

Energy consumption patterns in the process of China’s urbanization

Urbanization has transformed daily lives and industrial production in China. We investigate the effects of this process on Chinese energy consumption patterns. Three energy-consuming sectors intricately associated with urbanization are identified and analyzed: residential households, transportation, and the building materials industry. Urbanization has profoundly affected each; moreover, the latter two are high energy consumption and potentially high carbon producing. We estimate energy consumption attributable to each sector to quantitatively evaluate their impacts on societal transition. Transportation and the production of building materials are identified as the most significant linkages from urbanization to energy consumption. Strikingly, despite the large increase in the proportion of the population that is urban, the share of urban energy consumption, as estimated here, in total energy consumption has remained stable. This suggests that economic growth, in the form of the production of goods for export and domestic consumption, is the most important driver of energy demand in China.     

中国公民消费价值观调查与分析

本项研究对教育部重大攻关项目(2003-2006)年“中国公民人文素质调查与对策研究”中有关中国大陆31个省市不同社会群体(共计32504人)的消费价值观的数据进行了统计分析,结果表明:(1)中国公民的消费价值观存在一致性,大部分人注重物质消费或投资,而忽视了精神消费;(2)不同的群体体现出不同的消费价值取向。     

On the maximum population size of a modernized China from the perspective of food resources]

The yearly per capita amounts of protein consumption between China, France, Japan, and the US are compared. Based on human dietary protein requirements and using quantitative methods and a mathematical model, the maximum population that can be supported by China's 9.6 million sq km of land after 2000 is calculated. The mathematical equation used is: ZGB + DBG = H; where ZGB is the ratio of plant protein over total protein required by the body consumed per unit time, and DGB is the ratio of animal protein over total protein required by the body consumed per unit time. H 1 means an excessive, H = 1 a balanced, and H 1 a deficient protein supply. Based on an average per capita daily energy requirement of 2,272 kcal, ZGB, DGB, and H are calculated for China, France, Japan and the US. The values between China and the US represent the extremes, with ZGB = 0.5776, DGB = 0.0813, and H = 0.6589 for China and ZGB = 0.2559, DGB = 0.8266, and H = 1.0825 for the US. Under the same conditions of land mass and unit production, the larger the H and DGB, the smaller a population that can be sustained. Conversely, the smaller the H and DGB, the larger the population that can be sustained. Using the values calculated by this equation, in order for China to attain a dietary level within 100 years comparable to that of the current US level, the Chinese population would have to be controlled to a size of about 680 million. A mathematical model for a balanced diet is given as an appendix.     

中国城镇化与环境污染排放:基于投入产出的分析

文章在阐释城镇化对污染排放影响内涵的基础上,基于投入产出分析方法,构建城乡居民人均消费完全排污系数以分析城镇化对污染排放的影响,并对中国1997～2007年数据进行了分析。研究表明,城镇居民人均消费完全排污系数远大于农村居民,二者均随时间呈现不断下降的趋势,但农村居民下降幅度更大。城乡居民人均消费规模差异是其化学需氧量、二氧化硫完全排放系数差异的主要原因,2007年其贡献率分别达到94.07%、90.16%。城镇化效应对1997～2007年中国消费引致化学需氧量、二氧化硫排放呈现持续的增效应。最后,基于2007年数据对城镇化的污染排放影响的测算表明,城镇化率每增加1个百分点,工业化学需氧量、工业二氧化硫排放分别增长0.48%、0.44%,十二五期间的城镇化进程将给减排目标的完成增加较大的工作难度。     

医疗保险对农村居民家庭消费的影响分析--基于不同收入层级的跨地区比较

利用2009、2010农村固定观察点数据,分析了医疗保险对不同地区、不同收入层级的农村居民家庭医疗消费支出和非医疗消费支出的影响。实证结果表明：医疗保险对农村居民家庭的医疗类消费不存在显著影响,对非医疗类消费支出则存在显著的正向促进作用。分地区来看,医疗保险对东西部地区农村居民家庭医疗类消费的影响差异显著,对东中部地区农村居民家庭非医疗类消费支出的影响同样差异显著;分收入层级来看,医疗保险对家庭医疗类消费的影响在不同收入层级的农村居民家庭之间不存在显著差异,但对非医疗类消费支出的影响在不同收入层级之间差异显著。此外,商业医疗保险作为医疗保险体系的重要组成部分,对促进农村消费起到带动作用。最后,本文从加大政府补贴和完善保障机制两个方面提出政策建议以期有效降低农村居民家庭超常的预防性储蓄,促进农村居民家庭消费。     

中国未来人口发展的粮食安全与耕地保障

中国人口发展的粮食安全与耕地保证程度研究表明,随着人口增长和消费扩张,中国未来的耕地规模和人均耕地面积会进一步下降,人均粮食消费水平和粮食需求总量将进一步提高;2020年在人均粮食420~435kg的消费水平上,基于18亿亩耕地保证的粮食生产能力可以基本满足14.36亿人口的粮食需求;在人均450kg的消费水平上,中国未来耕地的粮食生产能力足以支持人口高锋时间的14.73亿人,但受耕地资源有限约束,人均粮食占有水平很难有进一步提高。从耕地、粮食与人口关系看,中国未来人口的粮食安全必须向食物安全转变,从耕地资源约束的粮食生产与人口增长驱动的食物消费两端着眼:一方面要重视耕地与粮食安全——藏粮于土,全面提高土地资源综合生产能力;一方面要关注食物与消费安全——倡导适度消费,建立动植物并重型食物结构;从生产与消费两方面来认识和解决中国中长期人口发展的食物安全与耕地保障问题。     

基于国际人力资本流动视角的中印技术创新模式比较研究

文章通过构建企业创新生产函数并引入国际人力资本流动因素,对中印两国技术创新的影响因素进行计量分析,并重点考察了国际人力资本流动的作用。实证结果表明,中国的技术创新主要来自高研发投入和以FDI技术溢出为代表的国际技术扩散,而印度则更多地依赖国际人力资本流动引致的技术创新、内需及制度方面的政府支持,以FDI为代表的国际技术扩散对其技术创新作用甚微。印度在国际人力资本流动推动技术创新方面比中国更具优势,中国技术创新模式虽然取得了一定成绩,但与印度依靠人才国际化推动创新的模式相比潜力相对不足。     

京津冀人口集聚对能源消费的影响

京津冀作为我国重要的人口集聚区,其区域发展面临严重的能源和环境问题。首先,基于STIRPAT模型构建京津冀面板数据模型,研究1990—2017年京津冀人口密度、经济增长、产业结构和环境规制对能源消费的影响。其次,采用SVAR模型通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解,研究京津冀人口密度变动对能源消费的作用机理和动态影响关系。结果显示,京津冀三地的人口密度、人均实际GDP与能源消费之间存在正向影响关系,其中河北省影响系数最大;北京和天津第三产业占比与能源消费之间存在反向影响关系,河北省第三产业占比对能源消费的影响不显著;北京和天津的环境规制对能源消费影响不显著,河北省环境规制对能源消费具有正向影响;京津冀地区和京冀两地人口密度变动对能源消费的影响在短期呈现负向效应,但是在中长期京津冀地区和三地人口密度变动对能源消费的影响均先上升然后缓慢下降,人口集聚具有集约用能效应。相对于能源消费自身影响而言,京津冀人口密度变动对能源消费的贡献相对较小,其影响效应有限。最后,对京津冀人口流动和能源消费一体化协同发展提出对策建议。     

Satisfied and dissatisfied South Africans: results from the General Household Survey in international comparison

Who are the satisfied South Africans 10 years into democracy? How do material factors contribute to their life satisfaction? These are the questions addressed in this paper. Earlier South African research has consistently found a close positive relationship between life satisfaction and material standards of living in the apartheid and post-apartheid era. Recently, a new source of information has become available to shed further light on the association between material and subjective well-being. In 2002, Statistics South Africa, the country’s official source of statistical information, agreed to ask South Africans participating in the General Household Survey whether they were satisfied or dissatisfied with life. The 2002 General Household Survey (n26’000) used a measure developed for the Euromodule that allows for international comparison. The wide-ranging information contained in South Africa’s official?household survey offers a unique opportunity to explore what makes for satisfied and dissatisfied South Africans in relation to their material living standards. Results indicate that the improved living standards afforded to many black South Africans under democracy are associated with increases in life satisfaction. Furthermore, habituation does not appear to have diluted the positive relationship between living standards and well-being. However, political factors continue to play an important role in shaping subjective well-being. In conclusion, it is argued that material gains might also have restored the pride and dignity denied to black South Africans in the past.     

城镇化进程中人口因素对水资源消耗的驱动作用分析——以太湖流域为例

基于IPAT模型及对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)分解法构建了包括人口规模、城镇化水平和城乡居民生活用水强度等人口因素在内的水资源消耗驱动因素模型,该模型从人口、经济角度全面探讨了水资源消耗的驱动因素并作了系统的量化。运用该模型研究太湖流域水资源消耗变化的驱动因素,分析结果表明:经济规模是影响太湖流域用水变化的主导因素;产业结构和产业用水强度对水资源消耗的增加起到抑制作用,并且产业用水强度对水资源消耗增长的抑制效应大于产业结构;人口规模对水资源消耗的增长具有显著影响;城镇化水平和城乡居民生活用水强度的历史驱动贡献率相对较小,但驱动力巨大,应予以足够重视。通过优化产业结构,以及降低单位GDP耗水量,提高水资源利用效率能够有效降低太湖流域水资源消耗。     

中国城市化进程中的低碳经济发展路径选择

随着中国城市化的快速推进,能源消耗和碳排放总量在未来一段时间内都将持续上升。如何有效遏制城市化进程中的温室气体排放成为控制我国温室气体排放总量不断增加的关键因素。改善城市化进程中的能源消费结构、进行技术创新和政策创新、促进低碳行业的不断发展将是我国低碳城市化发展的必由之路。     

人口增长、城市化对环境的影响——以CO2排放为例

基于1978—2007中国宏观经济时间序列数据,利用协整回归方法和误差修正模型(ECM),实证分析了人口增长、城市化水平、人均GDP和能源强度对CO2排放的影响。结果显示,人口总量、城市化水平、人均GDP和能源强度与CO2排放存在长期均衡关系。长期来看,人口总量对CO2排放量的影响最大,城市化水平其次,人均GDP最小。短期来看,能源强度和人均GDP对CO2排放波动影响较大,而人口总量和城市化水平影响不显著。     

Parental wealth and children's outcomes over the life-course in Brazil: A propensity score matching analysis

Parental wealth – as distinct from income, education and other parental socioeconomic resources – may play a large role in children's socioeconomic outcomes, particularly in developing countries, characterized by economic volatility, a weak social safety net and limited access to credit. Using a propensity score matching approach, we examine the influence of parental wealth on adult children's schooling, school quality, occupational status, consumption level, and wealth holdings in Brazil. Findings suggest a substantial effect of parental wealth on all these outcomes, with a positive effect of even modest levels of wealth. The effect of parental wealth on occupational status is largely mediated by parental investment in more and better education for children. In contrast, the effect on children's consumption and wealth is largely unmediated by labor market resources and rewards, a pattern that is more pronounced for sons than for daughters. This suggests direct parental financial assistance. Sensitivity analysis indicates that hidden bias emerging from unobserved confounders should have to be unlikely large to question inference of a causal influence of high levels of parental wealth, although the influence of low levels of wealth may be more susceptible to hidden bias.