Publication Decisions Revisited: The Effect of the Outcome of Statistical Tests on the Decision to Publish and Vice Versa

This article presents evidence that published results of scientific investigations are not a representative sample of results of all scientific studies. Research studies from 11 major journals demonstrate the existence of biases that favor studies that observe effects that, on statistical evaluation, have a low probability of erroneously rejecting the so-called null hypothesis (H ₀). This practice makes the probability of erroneously rejecting H ₀ different for the reader than for the investigator. It introduces two biases in the interpretation of the scientific literature: one due to multiple repetition of studies with false hypothesis, and one due to failure to publish smaller and less significant outcomes of tests of a true hypotheses. These practices distort the results of literature surveys and of meta-analyses. These results also indicate that practice leading to publication bias have not changed over a period of 30 years.     

Conceptual and Statistical Problems in Identifying Thresholds of Effect for Materials Damage and Soiling

The Clean Air Act of 1970 anticipates the existence of nonzero threshold concentrations of pollutants below which no consequential materials damage or soiling results from exposure to pollution. Determination of quantitative values for such thresholds on the basis of available empirical evidence involves substantial practical problems, including conceptual problems relating to measurement and attribution of effects and statistical problems relating to data analysis and interpretation. It is essential to maintain a broad, yet focused perspective that systematically accounts for such problems when synthesizing and interpreting empirical evidence reported in different studies of the same hypothesized effect.     

汇率指标的统计测度及经济意义

 汇率作为国家间配置资源的重要工具,其水平的决定与作用机制非常复杂。需要将汇率概念分解为一系列相应的指标和分析逻辑。而深入理解汇率概念的关键点是货币的兑换价格与商品价格的关系。本文从建立汇率指标概念的经济学分析逻辑与统计测度问题的关系切入,以名义汇率、实际汇率和有效汇率等核心指标为重点,提出汇率指标的统计学测度方法与操作分析框架,深入讨论其相应的经济学意义。     

数据科学的统计学内涵

数据科学以大数据为研究对象,而大数据对统计分析最直接的冲击莫过于数据收集方式的变革,同时统计分析的视野也不再局限于传统的属性数据,而是包括了关系数据、非结构、半结构数据等其他类型更丰富的数据。伴随着数据开放运动,数据库之间的关联信息的价值逐步得到体现。基于统计学的视角分别从科学理论基础、计算机处理技术和商业应用等三个维度研究了数据科学的统计学内涵,探讨了数据科学范式对统计分析过程的直接影响,以及统计学视角面临的机遇与挑战。     

The World of Research Has Gone Berserk: Modeling the Consequences of Requiring “Greater Statistical Stringency” for Scientific Publication

ABSTRACT

In response to growing concern about the reliability and reproducibility of published science, researchers have proposed adopting measures of “greater statistical stringency,” including suggestions to require larger sample sizes and to lower the highly criticized “p?<?0.05” significance threshold. While pros and cons are vigorously debated, there has been little to no modeling of how adopting these measures might affect what type of science is published. In this article, we develop a novel optimality model that, given current incentives to publish, predicts a researcher’s most rational use of resources in terms of the number of studies to undertake, the statistical power to devote to each study, and the desirable prestudy odds to pursue. We then develop a methodology that allows one to estimate the reliability of published research by considering a distribution of preferred research strategies. Using this approach, we investigate the merits of adopting measures of “greater statistical stringency” with the goal of informing the ongoing debate.     

Statistical Adequacy and the Testing of Trend Versus Difference Stationarity

Abstract

The debate on whether macroeconomic series are trend or difference stationary, initiated by Nelson and Plosser [Nelson, C. R.; Plosser, C. I. (1982). Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: some evidence and implications. Journal of Monetary Economics10:139–162] remains unresolved. The main objective of the paper is to contribute toward a resolution of this issue by bringing into the discussion the problem of statistical adequacy. The paper revisits the empirical results of Nelson and Plosser [Nelson, C. R.; Plosser, C. I. (1982). Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: some evidence and implications. Journal of Monetary Economics10:139–162] and Perron [Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica57:1361–1401] and shows that several of their estimated models are misspecified. Respecification with a view to ensuring statistical adequacy gives rise to heteroskedastic AR(k) models for some of the price series. Based on estimated models which are statistically adequate, the main conclusion of the paper is that the majority of the data series are trend stationary.     

Statistical Adequacy and the Testing of Trend Versus Difference Stationarity

The debate on whether macroeconomic series are trend or difference stationary, initiated by Nelson and Plosser [Nelson, C. R.; Plosser, C. I. (1982). Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: some evidence and implications. Journal of Monetary Economics10:139-162] remains unresolved. The main objective of the paper is to contribute toward a resolution of this issue by bringing into the discussion the problem of statistical adequacy. The paper revisits the empirical results of Nelson and Plosser [Nelson, C. R.; Plosser, C. I. (1982). Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: some evidence and implications. Journal of Monetary Economics10:139-162] and Perron [Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica57:1361-1401] and shows that several of their estimated models are misspecified. Respecification with a view to ensuring statistical adequacy gives rise to heteroskedastic AR(k) models for some of the price series. Based on estimated models which are statistically adequate, the main conclusion of the paper is that the majority of the data series are trend stationary.     

统计生产力与统计创新网络建设——基于我国统计学科发展和应用统计研究背景的讨论

政府统计内容如何在科学性上,与大学教育有机形成一个互动的整体,这是今天中国社会经济统计发展的一个大问题。本文用意主要是提出通过加强社会经济统计创新网络的建设来改善这种状况,一方面是适应社会快节奏的要求,另一方面是发展基础研究、应用研究和解决重大问题的一体化能力。一、统计生产力、统计创新和创新网络什么是统计生产力?作为社会劳动组成的一类,统计活动也是一种生产性的劳动,统计生产力就是指统计活动所产生的创造价值的能力。从现实来看,统计活动是建立统计数据标准、搜集统计数据和提供统计分析服务的专门技术服务的生产活…     

关于科技统计指标体系的讨论

随着科学技术的进步,科学技术统计越来越重要。目前,我国的科技统计工作不能适应科学技术发展的需要,有关部门已组织力量进行科技统计指标体系方面的讨论,并取得了一些进展。现将讨论的主要问题和观点介绍如下:     

对应分析统计检验体系探讨

对应分析因其结果的易读性,近些年得到了越来越广泛的应用。为了更好地应用对应分析,提出建立对应分析统计检验体系,包括对应分析适用性的统计检验以及对应分析效果的检验,同时还提出应用对应分析时应注意的其它问题。     

Impact of Contamination on Training and Test Error Rates in Statistical Clustering

The k-means algorithm is one of the most common non hierarchical methods of clustering. It aims to construct clusters in order to minimize the within cluster sum of squared distances. However, as most estimators defined in terms of objective functions depending on global sums of squares, the k-means procedure is not robust with respect to atypical observations in the data. Alternative techniques have thus been introduced in the literature, e.g., the k-medoids method. The k-means and k-medoids methodologies are particular cases of the generalized k-means procedure. In this article, focus is on the error rate these clustering procedures achieve when one expects the data to be distributed according to a mixture distribution. Two different definitions of the error rate are under consideration, depending on the data at hand. It is shown that contamination may make one of these two error rates decrease even under optimal models. The consequence of this will be emphasized with the comparison of influence functions and breakdown points of these error rates.     

统计口径变动对人口普查城镇人口数量的影响及修正

一、问题的提出与许多社会经济现象一样 ,城镇人口和乡村人口的差别虽然在定性上比较容易理解 ,也易于取得共识 ,但却难以在两大范畴之间定量地划出一条清晰的界线。原因就在于它们彼此之间始终存在着大量的渗透、过渡和转移 ,而且它们又都属于历史范畴 ,处在经常的发展、运动之中 ,还受到自然和人文环境的多种影响。联合国人口专家曾指出 :“各国‘城镇’所在地的定义各不相同 ,在同一个国家里 ,也因时代不同而有差别。此外 ,在某些国家 ,还有两个或更多的定义同时存在。城市化既是数量上的 ,也是质量上的一种进程 ,因而随着时间的推移 ,就…     

历次全国中青年统计科学研讨会的考察与认知

 本文以求实的态度,对历次全国中青年统计科学研讨会进行了详细的回顾与考察,并根据会议的主题和研究成果,分析了中国统计科学在不同发展阶段的具体情况。在此基础上,对中青年统计科学研讨会的发展过程进行了深层思考和认知,进一步明确了中青年统计工作者的发展方向,及面临的挑战。     

Some Results on the Control of the False Discovery Rate under Dependence

Abstract.  Controlling the false discovery rate (FDR) is a powerful approach to multiple testing, with procedures developed with applications in many areas. Dependence among the test statistics is a common problem, and many attempts have been made to extend the procedures. In this paper, we show that a certain degree of dependence is allowed among the test statistics, when the number of tests is large, with no need for any correction. We then suggest a way to conservatively estimate the proportion of false nulls, both under dependence and independence, and discuss the advantages of using such estimators when controlling the FDR.     

科技统计中研究与开发机构R&D数据折算方法的研究

一、引言科学技术 ,特别是研究与发展 (Ｒ＆Ｄ)是经济发展和社会进步的内在推动力。为了科学地制定和评估国家政策 ,特别是科技政策 ,需要调查和系统地收集有关科学技术活动的信息和数据。ＯＥＣＤ (经济合作与发展组织 )为推荐调查Ｒ＆Ｄ活动的标准与规范 ,发布了《研究与发展调查手册》。我国从 1 985年科技普查起就以国际标准和规范为依据 ,并结合我国的国情 ,经过十多年的不懈努力 ,形成了我国科技统计的规范和体系。按照ＯＥＣＤ机构分类的标准 ,我国的Ｒ＆Ｄ资源主要分布在政府部门属研究与开发机构、企业、高等教育部门的大专院校。…     

The Future of Statistical Computing on Desktop Computers

A class of computing devices known as desktop computers has emerged over the last several years. The International Data Corporation (McGovern 1980) estimates that the number of desktop computers is increasing by approximately 53,000 each month. Because of the projected widespread use of desktop computers and anticipated improvements in hardware, the potential for impressive statistical computing on these devices is exciting. Two features of desktop computers will be particularly important for those doing statistical analyses: (a) the ease-of-use of the computers, and (b) their extensive graphics capabilities. The author suggests that sophisticated statistical software will be available in the near future on many different models of desktop computers. Indeed, several of the manufacturers provide high-quality software at the present time. The implications for statisticians of a rapid growth rate for desktop computers are discussed for data analysis, software development, graphics, and instructional usage.     

The Impact of RDS on Usage of Electronic Content in UK Academic Libraries: Selected Results from a UKSG-Funded Project

Resource discovery services (RDS), also called web-scale discovery services (WDS), have attracted considerable attention in recent years. This article aims to provide an environmental scan of the adoption of RDS in UK higher education libraries and provide an analysis of RDS resource usage data to gauge whether RDS have an impact on the overall usage of ejournals and ebooks. Findings show that there appears to be a positive impact in most cases, although the extent of this impact varies across libraries and publishers. There is undeniably a degree of complexity in the usage analysis owing to the multidimensional nature of the environment.     

官方统计数据修订的国际经验

随着社会各界对统计数据越来越关注,官方统计数据的修订问题越来越重要。科学修订统计数据对于确保统计数据质量,维护统计数据信誉十分重要。本文深入分析了国外官方统计数据修订的主要原因,阐述了有关国际组织和国家统计数据修订的种类、范围、条件和程序,详细介绍了美国和澳大利亚官方统计数据修订的具体做法和经验,并得出了几点有益的启示,以期对研究制定我国统计数据修订制度提供借鉴。     

统计信用与统计数据质量研究

 统计数据质量问题严重影响着政府决策和社会公信力。本文运用博弈论分析方法,分析了声誉资本大小、失信惩戒力度、报假收益及监督力度是影响统计数据失真的重要因素,证明了引入统计信用可以在有限的成本下防范数据失真,提出了完善统计信用惩戒制度是统计信用发挥作用的制度基础。