Historical demography in Venezuela

The authors provide information on selected sources of demographic data for Venezuela for two historical periods: the pre-statistical years from the beginning of Spanish colonization to the early 1870s and the period from 1870 to the present. A brief bibliography is included     

Finite approximations in demography

Abstract Conventions exist for carrying out the arithmetic of population projection, finding the intrinsic rate of natural increase, and other demographic calculations. These are good approximations only for populations which are stationary or increasing very slowly. For rapidly increasing populations, which are presently the subject of much study, they can be readily improved. The improved formulae take account of the way in which the increase shifts the distribution of population within the five-year age group. A number of examples are given of the derivation of corrections to existing formulae. While the corrections are smaller than the error of the data available for most countries, such formulae are worth introducing in anticipation of better data. They in no way depend on machine computation, but the computer makes them especially easy to apply.     

The scientific revolution in demography

Since 1960 a debate has taken place between demographers and natural scientists over projections of world population into the future and the methods appropriate for making projections. Underlying this debate is a disagreement over the factors which influence human population growth. To the usual factors of fertility and mortality the natural scientists emphasize the human population's ability to communicate and thereby to enlarge available resources. Also at issue are different philosophies concerning the manipulation of data. The debate between demographers and natural scientists bears many of the features of a scientific revolution as described by Thomas Kuhn. The new theory also meets the criterion of scientific growth contained in the correspondence principle. The theories used by demographers and natural scientists have political implications, since the demographers assume stability whereas the natural scientists observe instability.     

Forensic demography and civil rights

In the summer of 1965, the legislature of the state of Mississippi passed a law which required children whose parents were living in another state to pay up to $350 tuition in order to attend public school. On the belief that this law discriminated against Negroes and was therefore unconstitutional, the Department of Justice began litigation procedures to repeal it. But evidence was needed to prove that the law was in fact discriminatory. The lawyers contacted demographers at the Bureau of the Census to provide data to determine if the majority of persons affected were Negro and too poor to pay the tuition. They sought information which could tell them, ideally, how many parents of children in Mississippi had left the state and what the economic position and racial characteristics of the children were.An attempt was made to get this information from already published sources, such as census reports and other research findings. These could give a hurried impression of the situation but could not deal directly with the issue of the whereabouts of parents not living with their children, since such a question had not been asked in the 1960 Census. An additional bit of information was obtained from the NAAGP Legal Defense and Education Fund in Jackson, Mississippi, from forms showing characteristics of persons actually affected by the law. But this limited sample did not provide evidence solid enough upon which to build a case.It was decided to rely on a retabulation of 1960 Census records to describe accurately the base population from which children with parents out of state would be drawn-namely, the children not living with either parent. This showed that of all school-age children living without either parent, 82 percent are Negro. The average Negro household, which contains at least one "parentless" child, houses 6.8 persons and has an annual income of $1,429. This allows less than $250 annually per person. Tuition for just one child eats up more than one person's yearly allotment. These data showed that the law, in fact, did discriminate racially, since most of the persons affected were Negro and too poor to pay tuition.This was one instance in which demographers were able to use their special skills in implementing public policy-notably, the law.     

New frontiers in demography and social psychology

The topics of demography are those of human fate: birth, illness, marriage, occupation, and death. The methods of demography therefore relate global rates to major events, submerging the individual decision. The social psychologist observes the regularities of people's behavior in different social conditions and builds models from individual decisions. Since he looks at patterns independent of the event, the kind of event does not matter, and he tends to concentrate on trivial events which are amenable to research.To the degree that man has obtained control over his environment, he is able to look at demographic events as less than fate. Social conditions have also given more control to the individual over many events over which he had no control previously, such as choice of a marriage partner or an occupational career. Thus, the classical methods of demography are frequently insufficient to deal with demographic data, and abrupt changes may occur because of vagaries of individual decisions. The more the demographic trends can be affected by individual decisions, the more the methods of social psychology become useful in understanding changes in population composition.The possibilities of micro-demography, of building up demographic trends from individual decisions, become stronger as more individual control can be exerted over the events. Such disparate events as control of infectious disease, air pollution, birth control, civil rights, and changes in the educational system and occupational structure have given individuals more control over different demographic variables, made the study of individual decisions with demographic consequences important, and led to joint efforts by demographers and social psychologists.     

French demography in the Eighteenth Century

There are many people who, in studying the past, ask for no more than to satisfy their curiosity. It would be unjust to imply any disparagement in such a statement. Intellectual curiosity is the specific characteristic of the inquiring man, in whatever province he makes use of his faculties; it is, in a way, his reason for existence. He therefore requires no excuse when his curiosity naturally leads him to study the period which saw the birth and growth of his own field of work. After all, to relate the history of demography is, at the same time, to write a chapter in the general history of the development of ideas. There is no doubt that the task is worth undertaking.     

Multinomial and conditional logit discrete-choice models in demography

Although discrete-choice statistical techniques have been used with increasing regularity in demographic analyses, McFadden's conditional logit model is less well known and seldom used. Conditional logit models are appropriate when the choice among alternatives is modeled as a function of the characteristics of the alternatives, rather than (or in addition to) the characteristics of the individual making the choice. We argue that this feature of conditional logit makes it more appropriate for estimating behavioral models. In this article, the conditional logit model is presented and compared with the more familiar multinomial logit model. The difference between the two techniques is illustrated with an analysis of the choice of marital and welfare status by divorced or separated women.     

Correcting missing-data bias in historical demography

Studies on population history are often based on incomplete records of life histories. For instance, in studies using data obtained from family reconstitution, the date of death is right censored (by migration) and the censoring time is never observed. Several methods for the correction of mortality estimates are proposed in the literature, most of which first estimate the number of individuals at risk and then use standard techniques to estimate mortality. Other methods are based on statistical models. In this paper all methods are reviewed, and their merits are compared by applying them to simulated and to seventeenth-century data from the English parish of Reigate. An ad hoc method proposed by Ruggles performs reasonably well. Methods based on statistical models, provided they are sufficiently realistic, give comparable accuracy and allow the estimation of several other quantities of interest, such as the distribution of migration times.     

Interpolating demography with families and households

This paper argues that the field of household and family demography serves a critical role in the development of our understanding of the determinants and consequences of population trends. Like the community, families and households are situated between the two levels at which demographic research is ordinarily conducted — the individual and the nation-state. The results of the papers in this issue are used to illustrate the critical ways that intergenerational and gender relationships shape demographic processes.     

New challenges for demography

Challenges for demography have arisen from recognition of its potential contribution to interdisciplinary research in new areas of major public interest. This paper discusses three of these: research on anthropological demography, AIDS and the health transition. The paper examines priorities and the contribution of demography to progress in each area.     

Historical demography: achievements and prospects

Historical demography as a separate discipline came into existence when family reconstruction was first developed for the analysis of a pre-transition population. This paper assesses the significant achievements made in this field of population studies since then. Attention is also paid to equally significant findings obtained from aggregative analysis based on back projection, and to a large body of research results for the period of the demographic transition. In the last part of the paper, new research directions are discussed. Data issues as well as methodological ones are raised. Special attention is given to newly emerging Asian historical demography where different source materials require different methods and techniques, which in turn are expected to broaden the scope of the so far disproportionality fertility-oriented field. Finally, discussions are extended to economic, cultural and institutional aspects of the subject, with a plea not to isolate demographic analysis from other branches of historical research.     

The demography of disadvantage

This paper discusses the contribution that demographers can make to the study of disadvantage. Demographers from Malthus onwards have been interested in analysing disadvantage through the lens of demographic variables, notably fertility, mortality and population growth, and their effect on poverty and welfare, both at an aggregate level and in terms of intra-household differences in well-being. The methodology of demography, including the concern with getting denominators right, cohort analysis and standardization procedures, can contribute to the analysis of disadvantage in many different ways. As examples, this paper highlights two issues: that of inequality of access to quality education, and the social and economic disadvantage faced by Indigenous Australians. The goal of understanding the causes of disadvantage with a view to reducing it may be best served through multidisciplinary efforts, in which demographers should play a role.     

What is applied demography?

Applied demography has recently gained recognition as an emergent specialization among practicing demographers. We argue that applied demography is intrinsically distinct from basic demography because it exhibits the value-orientation and empirical characteristics of a decision-making science while the latter exhibits the value-orientation and empirical hallmarks of a basic science. Distinguishing characteristics of applied demography are based on the context in which it places precision and explanatory power relative to time and resources as well as the fact its substantive problems are largely exogenously-defined, usually by customers. The substantive problems of basic demography, on the other hand, are largely endogenously-defined, usually by academic demographers. Moreover, basic demography is primarily concerned with offering convincing explanations of demographic phenomena and tends to view time and resources as barriers to surmount in order to maximize precision and explanatory power. This context is very different from the one in which applied demography is embedded, which views explanatory power and precision in terms of doing what is necessary to support practical decision-making while minimizing time and resources. We examine this conceptualization of applied demography in terms of the methods and materials that fall within its purview and discuss some important consequences, including research agendas and training programs. We conclude by posing several important but unanswered questions about the actual and potential scope of applied demography and discuss some of the implications inherent in these questions.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Demographic Association, 20 October 1995, Richmond, Virginia, USA.     

Historical demography in the Central American isthmus

The author reviews and evaluates sources of information on the demographic history of Central America. Past and present administrative, state, ecclesiastical, and genealogical sources are examined, and recent studies of various Central American countries are cited. A bibliography is provided     

Research on gender in demography: Limitations and constraints

This paper explores the issue of gender in demography, focusing on the question of why we don't know more than we do about the role of gender in demographic processes. Our lack of knowledge is partly explained by demography's research and policy focus on the two questions central to the field in recent decades, fertility decline and the relationship between economic and demographic change. The focus on these issues – sometimes at the expense of other research questions and issues – has meant that some social processes surrounding demographic change, including the role of gender, have not received the attention they deserve. Understanding gender's complex relationship to social behaviors, such as demographic behavior, requires attention to social/cultural context and to power. Demography needs to expand our knowledge of gender through the development of new research questions, research designs, and methodologies. Doing so will give us new insights into demographic processes.     

The state of applied demography in Australia

What is the state of applied demography in Australia from a practitioner’s perspective? The paper discusses this question by addressing the following aspects: what issues are and are not receiving media coverage; the use and misuse of demographic data; the level of service received by the demography community from the main suppliers of data; the emerging role of some key players on the scene and some suggestions on the teaching of demography in Australia.     

The verification of data in historical demography

Abstract In all scientific studies care must be taken to work on data which are correct and hence to make sure of the quality of the observations. In the field of historical demography there is need for extra care. The data were collected a long time ago in circumstances which were sometimes good, sometimes bad, but often little known. Statisticians are, moreover, on a priori grounds, rather inclined to be more suspicious of observations made in the past than of those which are made currently. Results relating to past populations must therefore be more rigorously established than any others if they are to be accepted. The verification of the data thus forms an integral part of the work of the historical demographer.