论e时代的发展

e时代悄然而至,没有大革命的激昂,没有大萧条的阵痛。这将是人类历史上一个全新的时代。人人关心e时代,讨论e时代,参与e时代的决策,不仅大有必要,大有可能,而且已是时代的必然。本文试图对e时代的缘起、趋势、物质基础和社会特征作一简要的描述。     

经济增长与人口发展因素相关性研究——基于人口发展方程的构造

本文从人口经济活动、人口总量、人口结构、人口素质和人口再生产等方面,通过构建人口发展方程,分析了人口发展与经济增长之间的关系．研究结论表明我国的经济增长与人口发展之间从长期看具有稳定的互动关系,短期内两者之间存在动态均衡机制。在国家人口发展战略提出坚持以人为本,推进体制创新,实现人口大国向人力资本强国的转变等要求下,当前平衡出生人口性别比,进一步控制人口自然增长率,提升人力资本价值,具有重要的现实意义。     

我国产业结构高度的影响因素和变化探析

对产业结构高度的影响因素进行文献回顾后,利用误差修正模型和Chow检验对1978～2005年的经济数据进行实证分析。结果表明,产业结构高度与经济总量水平、技术进步程度、投资需求、消费需求、国际贸易结构和利用外资情况等影响因素之间存在着长期均衡关系,其中经济总量、技术进步和投资需求在短期内的影响更为明显,说明致力于这些因素的提高将促进我国产业结构高度的进一步提升。我国的产业结构高度以1992年为转折点发生了结构性的变化,说明我国市场经济体制改革对产业结构提升的重要性。     

A general statement of the tragedy of the commons

Although The Tragedy of the Commons is widely acclaimed, activists in environmental causes as well as professionals in ethics continue to act as if the essay had never been written. They ignore the central thesis that traditional, a priori thinking in ethics is mistaken and must be discarded. Hence the need remains to give the tragedy of the commons a more general statement—one which can convince a wide public of the correctness of its method and principles. In essence Hardin's essay is a thought experiment. Its purpose is not to make a historical statement but rather to demonstrate that tragic consequences can follow from practicing mistaken moral theories. Then it proposes a system-sensitive ethics that can prevent tragedy. The general statement of the tragedy of the commons demonstrates that an a priori ethics constructed on human-centered, moral principles and a definition of equal justice cannot prevent and indeed always supports growth in population and consumption. Such growth, though not inevitable, is a constant threat. If continual growth should ever occur, it eventually causes the breakdown of the ecosystems which support civilization. Henceforth, any viable ethics must satisfy these related requirements: (1) An acceptable system of ethics is contingent on its ability to preserve the ecosystems which sustain it. (2) Biological necessity has a veto over the behavior which any set of moral beliefs can allow or require. (3) Biological success is a necessary (though not a sufficient) condition for any acceptable ethical theory. In summary, no ethics can be grounded in biological impossibility; no ethics can require ethical behavior that ends all further ethical behavior. Clearly any ethics which tries to do so is mistaken; it is wrong.     

Assessment of the impact of changes related to the system transformation on the evolution of the process of mortality in Poland

"The article presents an attempt to make a quantitative evaluation of the impact of the environment on the rate of mortality, focusing on the group of stress-bearing factors that, according to some hypotheses, make up the set of potential, indirect determinants in the process of mortality. According to these opinions, the environment can be a source of different forms of stress. One stressor can be the social and economic status of individuals, being the function of the economic development of the region, another the instability of the social situation in the region. Both types of stress sources seem to be particularly adequate in the evaluation of the impact of this type of factor on the process of mortality in Poland in the period of system transformation."     

论失业“救济”制度向就业“保险”制度的转型及其政策探析

我国的失业保险就其目标定位和运行状况看,基本还是一种“生活保障型”的失业保障制度,其“再就业导向”功能明显不足,甚至严重缺失,难以适应我国劳动力市场不断攀高的失业人口的压力。必须进行制度设计理念的转变和功能调整,按‘就业是最好的失业保险’原则,重构以促进失业者尽快就业和鼓励企业扩大雇佣、稳定就业为导向的“就业保险型”失业保障制度。     

Some problems with the development of the population theory since the founding of the People's Republic of China]

Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, the development of the population theory has experienced some setbacks. It is important to learn lessons from the past and establish a socialist population theory based on science. During the 1st 30 years of the People's Republic of China, the development of a population theory can be divided into 3 stages: 1) stage one was from 1949 to 1957 -- belief in population control on the basis of sociology; 2) stage two was from the late 1950s to early 1960s -- represented by Mr. Ma Yinchu's "New Population Theory" and the theory of the opposing side; and 3) stage Three began after the 1960s. Throughout the 1960s, studies of population theory remained stagnant, and no progress in this field was possible. In the 1970s, especially since the downfall of the "Gang of Four," the development of a population theory has entered a new stage. 3 problems with the development of the population theory discussed by the author are: 1) an evaluation of Comrade Mao Zedong's thoughts on population, 2) the division of different schools in population theory, 3) the different periods in the development of the population theory since 1949. Mao Zedong did change his thoughts on population control, but he was in favor of family planning and supported studies in population theory. Besides Ma Yinchu, Chin Da, Fei Xiaotong, Wu Jingchao and others also had their own population theories. The author emphasizes the contributions made by Mao Zedong and the Communist Party in the development of a population theory. New accomplishments and experience are expected with the downfall of the "Gang of Four."     

Survey of the population development of the minority Li of the Hai-nan Island]

Hai-nan Island is under the jurisdiction of Guangdong Province and has a population of 5,520,000, of which 85% belong to the Han ethnic group, and 13.4% to the Li ethnic group, and there are other small minorities. Since 1949, the population of Hai-nan Island has more than doubled, and a serious population problem exists. Among the minorities, the population growth for the Li people in 1 autonomous region of the Island has been very rapid for 2 reasons: 1) the large number of immigrants moving in from other places, and 2) a high fertility rate among the Li people. In order to slow down the rate of population growth on the Island, the 1st step should be to slow down the growth rate of the largest ethnic group, the Han people. The Li people live mainly in rural and poor areas, and their production level has been very low. In the past 30 years, tremendous progress has been made to improve the health care and livelihood of the Li people. Before 1949, the total number of Li people was only 300,000. By 1980, the Li population had increased to more than 740,000, more than doubling the 1949 figure. This rapid population growth has helped economic development in the areas inhabited by the Li people. On the average, each household in the Li autonomous region has 5.3 children. In order to further improve the living standard of the people, family planning is needed for the Li community. The traditional belief of having more children is currently undergoing a change in the minds of the Li people. The policy of offering economic reward to those who follow family planning regulations is working, and more work is needed to curb rapid population growth.     

On the relationship between population and economic development--celebrating the 35th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China]

Population is very closely linked to the economic development of a society. The quantity, quality, structure, distribution, and movement of a population can help or hinder the rate of economic development. A developed country with low population density and a low percentage of employable people needs an increase in population in order to keep up with economic development. On the other hand, for an underdeveloped country with high population density and a high percentage of employable people, any increase in population will be detrimental to its economy. Man is a producer as well as a consumer, and in order to balance the rate of production and the rate of consumption, a certain poulation level must be maintained. The status of the economy determines the appropriate level. Population policy must be developed according to the following guidelines: 1) it must be based on the society's economic development; 2) since economy and population are closely related, they must both be worked on at the same time; and 3) both the quantity and quality of life of the population must also be worked on at the same time. Dealing with the relationship between population and the economic development of a society properly can bring about rapid improvement in the economic development and standard of living of that society.     

Indicators for the measurement of the quality of urban life

In the wealth of studies on measuring the quality of life, an autonomous ’urban’ trend has been progressively distinguishing itself, namely the extension of urban conditions of life to an ever higher percentage of the world's population. From the concept of city understood as a negation of environmental values, we have passed, thanks to a long multidisciplinary evolution, to the concept of the urban ecosystem and to that of the ecological city. What type of indicators may be used for the measurement of the quality of life in the urban environment? And what is their most appropriate ambit of application? An Italian experience in environmental planning (the Ten-Year Plan for the Environment — DECAMB, and the Territorial Frame of Reference — QUADROTER, for the Ministry of the Environment) may offer starting points for a research programme. Concepts such as land supply and demand; territorial loading; equilibrium and spill-over of urban systems; critical population mass, are used to introduce and initial experimental set of (objective and subjective) indicators of the quality of life orientated towards planning, both as regards the provision of services, and for participatory and symbolic aspects. But if a place is meaningless without a subject, so too a person removed from his own place is a man of uncertain identity.     

苏联时期俄罗斯人向中亚迁移的因素

俄罗斯人迁移中亚经过了较长的过程,苏联时期俄罗斯人迁移中亚的因素有四1.经济因素,包括劳动力供应问题、对中亚的投资,地区之间生活水平的差异等经济活动.2.社会因素,社会的直接号召和爱国主义与浪漫主义气氛,以及俄罗斯化政策、卫国战争、大垦荒运动等使俄罗斯人迁往中亚.3.民族因素,俄罗斯人是一个流动性很强的民族,而当地居民却不愿或不能迁居到城镇去.4.无语言障碍是俄罗斯人迁移的文化因素.     

On the Output Orientation of the Benefit-of-the-Doubt-Model

While Benefit-of-the-Doubt (BoD) models, as used in the context of composite indicator construction, seek to aggregate outputs only, they are formally equivalent to an input-oriented Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model in multiplier form. Strictly read, this introduces conceptually ambiguous results, as input adjustments have no real significance in the context at hand. At heart of this ambiguity lies a double interpretation of what is essentially a binding constraint in BoD’s underlying linear-fractional program. Moreover, there is a direct, reciprocal relation between the BoD-model and an earlier output-oriented DEA model introduced by Lovell et al. (Eur J Oper Res 87:507–518, 1995) for similar purposes. Although these models are essentially similar, I also show that there are instances (i.e. when adding additional weight restrictions) in which the results of one alternative are easier to communicate. The models surveyed in this paper are complemented with a short application on human development data for females living in Brussels municipalities.     

西部大开发中的“银色资源”开发利用

人才是西部大开发中一个关键性的问题,在当前西部人才资源相对紧缺的情况下,充分开发利用“银色资源”不失为一种快速、实效的好方法,这既体现了国家为迎接老龄化社会到来所提倡的“老有所为”的精神,又将极大地促进西部大开发的顺利进行。     

我国区域城市化发展水平的差异分析

全国第五次人口普查 31个省区的主要数据表明 ,我国的人口城市化水平存在着显著的地区差异。人口数量的变动特点与生产力发展水平 ,特别是人均GDP和投资 ,有着密切的关系。此外 ,统计口径的变化也是一个重要的影响因素。     

Assessing the Carrying Capacity of the Florida Keys

In 1996, the State of Florida mandated a study of the Florida Keys, the most populated portion of Monroe County, explicitly calling for a carrying capacity analysis to function as a basis for determining building permit allocation in the future. The Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study, conducted by the State of Florida and the US Army Corps of Engineers, has encountered challenges in trying to convert the vague carrying capacity concept into a functional, quantitative method. Difficulties in responding to external peer review advice suggests that institutional constraints are hindering re-direction of the study.     

广州市社区老人服务需求及现状的调查与思考

本文运用需要理论 ,从社会学和社会工作角度 ,以广州市东山区的问卷调查访问以及深入访谈资料为依据 ,分析老年人的需要及其与社区的关系 ,指出目前广州市社区老人服务建设存在的问题 ,以及在人口老龄化不断加剧 ,社会保障远未完善的情况下 ,构建一个社区老人服务体系的必要性 ,并提出相应对策     

Nuptiality in the Course of the Demographic Transition: The Experience of the Balkan Countries

The paper examines marriage patterns in four Balkan countries during the course of the demographic transition. It is shown by analysis of the available data that cultural and institutional factors, such as family type, kinship structure or religious doctrines, alone, cannot explain adequately all the features of nuptiality in the region. Without denying the importance of the ‘cultural-institutional’ approach, it was found necessary to expand it by taking into account the distinctive historical and developmental context in a given country or region. It is argued that the relative importance of marriage postponement (and celibacy), birth control, and out-migration, as parts of a complex system of ‘adjustments’ to sustained population growth, was determined by the rate of this growth, as well as by the pace of socio-economic development and a number of other factors (including institutional and cultural ones). The experience of the Balkan countries is explored with this assumption as a background.     

Some aspects of the relationship between the levels of infant mortality and fertility in the ESCAP region

The death of a child within the first year of life is a crucial factor in fertility decisions in a developing country. The infant mortality rate gives a close, inverse indication of the socioeconomic conditions of a country. This paper presents studies by Brass, Rutherford, Chowdhury, Khan and Chen, Agrawal, Iskander and Jones, in summary/abstract form. It concludes that the probabilities of survival are poorer for births of older women and/or higher parities. Early child deaths may increase the total period of exposure to the risk of conception. A lower infant and child mortality norm calls for fewer births to meet the needs for survivors. Child replacement motivational response seems to be strongest with the birth immediately following a death event. Agrawal analyzed the interval between successive births of 1107 women of Patna, Pakistan, according to the age of mother and sex and fate of the previous child. He observed that if a child died shortly after its birth, often a new pregnancy began within a short interval. The interval between 2 consecutive live births when the previous child was male and alive was greater than when the previous child was female and alive. The interval between 2 births was reduced if the child died in infancy and specially if this was a male child.     

社会安全阀机制与贫富差距调适

当前,我国贫富差距较大已是一客观不争的社会事实。社会安全阀机制则起着调适贫富差距的作用,从而缓解了贫富差距所可能导致的利益和社会冲突,维持和促进了社会的稳定与发展。研究立足于贫富差距较大的客观现实,着重对现有社会安全阀机制进行分析,并指出在健全和完善相应社会安全阀机制的基础上消除较大的贫富差距。     

第二次世界大战对苏联人口状况的影响

第二次世界大战期间为了赢得战争胜利,苏联付出了惨重的人口代价。战争对苏联人口状况产生了深刻的影响,不仅加重了战前已存在的人口危机程度,而且对居民的身体健康状况、结婚率和家庭规模造成了更深程度的破坏。战后流行病大规模爆发,出生率下降、死亡率上升,性别比例、年龄结构严重失衡,人口数量大幅减少,并持续数十年,为20世纪90年代初俄罗斯爆发的人口危机埋下了隐患。