失业率、年龄结构与人口迁移率的相关性研究

用定性与定量相结合的方法,从理论及实践两种角度,对影响人口迁移的主要因素进行了分析,指出：人口年龄结构及失业率是人口迁移率大小的决定因素。在此基础上,对影响我国人口迁移的相关性因素进行了分析,并对 21世纪我国人口的迁移做了预测。     

提高安徽省人口文化素质的思路与对策

安徽省经济基础薄弱,教育投入不足,办学条件差,教育事业总体上比较落后,导致安徽省人口,尤其是劳动人口文化素质偏低,严重地制约了安徽省经济的发展。针对安徽省教育存在的问题和人口文化素质的实际状况,结合省情省力和"科教兴皖"战略,提出优先发展教育,包括适应市场经济的需要,调整教育结构;增大政府教育投入,并建立多渠道筹措教育经费的新体制;巩固和发展农村基础教育,优化农村教育结构;加强师资培训,建设一支高素质的教师队伍等可行性的对策与建议。     

Health and Other Aspects of the Quality of Life of Older People

Celebrating the United Nations' International Year of Older Persons, in September 1999 a survey research project was undertaken throughout the Northern Interior Health Region (NIHR) of British Columbia. A total of 875 people completed 23-page questionnaires, the average age of the respondents was 69 and the range ran from 55 to 95 years. Responses to the SF-36 questionnaire indicated that for male respondents aged 55–64, the mean score for the 8 dimensions was 74.4. This mean was practically identical to that of the United States norm for such people (74.5) and lower than that for the United Kingdom (77.4). For male respondents aged 65 and older, the mean was 68.3. This was numerically higher but again practically the same as that of the norm for the United States (68.1). For females aged 55–64, the mean score for 8 dimensions was 73. This was superior to that of the United States norm of (70.6) for such people and lower than that for the United Kingdom (74.6). For female respondents aged 65 and older, the mean score was 65.4. This was practically identical to that of the United States (65.5).Comparing 18 average figures for our respondents on satisfaction with specific domains of life (e.g., financial security, health, friendships) and life as a whole with those of average adults in Prince George in November 1999, we found that in all but two cases the older people's scores were higher. Only in the cases of satisfaction with health and overall happiness were older people's scores lower, and the differences were not statistically significant.Eleven percent of our respondents reported that they had been a victim of a crime in the last year, compared to 38% in our 1997 adult victimization survey. Older people had a more benign view than ordinary adults of the growth of crime in their neighbourhood and city, although exactly 64% of both groups thought that crime had increased in Canada. Although older people had a more optimistic view than other adults of the increase in crime in their neighbourhoods, fewer of the former than the latter felt safe out at night. Nevertheless, compared to adults surveyed in 1997, the behaviour of respondents in our survey of older people was not as constrained by concerns of criminal victimization.Two or three of the 8 SF-36 health dimensions explained 37% of the variation in life satisfaction scores, 34% of variation in happiness scores, 34% in satisfaction with the overall quality of life scores and 22% in satisfaction with one's overall standard of living. In every case, Mental Health was the dimension that had the greatest impact on our four dependent variables.When all of our potential predictors were entered into a regression equation simultaneously, we found that they could explain 60% of the variance in life satisfaction scores, 44% in happiness scores, 58% in satisfaction with the overall quality of life scores and 59% in satisfaction with one's overall standard of living scores.     

The Importance of the Geographic Level of Analysis in the Assessment of the Quality of Life: The Case of Spain

There is a growing literature on the assessment of quality of life conditions in geographically and/or politically divided regions. Sometimes these territories are countries within a specified supranational structure, such as the European Union, for instance, and sometimes they are regions within countries. There is also some research that focuses on the municipal level of analysis, measuring the quality of life in cities. In the end what the researcher obtains is, at best, an average of the living conditions in the specified territory. However, if results are intended to have policy implications, attention should be paid to the variance in living conditions within regions. In this paper we attempt to quantify the relative importance of three different geographic levels of analysis in assessing the quality of life of the Spanish population. The geo-political division in Spain consists firstly of regions called Comunidades Autónomas, which are then divided into provinces which in turn are divided into municipalities. We are interested in evaluating the extent to which the quality of life conditions of an average person living in a given municipality are explained by the province and region in which the municipality is located. To do so, we first construct a composite indicator of quality of life (QoL) for the 643 largest municipalities of Spain using 19 variables which are weighted using Value Efficiency Analysis (VEA). VEA is a refinement of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) that imposes some consistency on the weights of the indicators used to construct the aggregate index. The indicators cover aspects related to consumption, social services, housing, transport, environment, labour market, health, culture and leisure, education and security. We then make a variance decomposition of the VEA scores to assess the importance of the three levels of geo-political administration. The results show that the municipal level is the most important of these, accounting for 52% of the variance in QoL. Regions explain 38% while provinces only account for a moderate 10%. Therefore, political action at the regional and municipal level would seem to have a larger impact on QoL indicators.     

甘肃省人才问题研究

本文对近10年来甘肃省人才状况进行了简要总结和分析.通过对人才总量及相对存量、人才的地区分布、人才的行业、职业构成以及科技、教育(主要是师资)状况的分析,就我省人才现状及存在的问题进行了剖析,并指出了症结所在.     

Features of the demography of Palestine

The objections which Dr Bromberger raises against official vital statistics in Palestine are considered by the author in this paper, and Dr Bromberger's methods of estimation are carefully examined. While defects in the statement of ages and some under-registration of Moslem deaths are admitted, the conclusion is reached that there is no inherent inconsistency in the published figures, and that any errors would not affect the differential rates of growth of the Arab and Jewish populations.     

Stability of environment and of insect populations

Summary The abundance of moths was monitored with light-traps in two sites in southern Bohemia, České Budějovice for 22 years and in Černiš for 9 years. In these sites, that are vastly different in environmental stability and predictability, stability of insect populations was studied. The amplitude of fluctuations in abundance of the insect populations, as measured by the coefficient of variation (CV), varied a great deal between species so that there was a large overlap between the two sites. Nevertheless there was a highly significant tendency for species at Černiš, the more stable site, to have smaller values of CV, i.e., to be less fluctuating. Also in species co-occurring in the two sites, the CV at Černiš tended to be smaller. Trends in abundance of individual species over time, both increases and decreases, were common in both sites and did not differ between habitats. Environmental stability begets insect population stability in terms of the amplitude of the fluctuations, but trends in time occur irrespective of stability of the habitat.     

Dynamic patterning of concerns: A long-term comparison of the structure of hopes and fears of Israelis

The patterning of human concerns over time is investigated, using data from two surveys on concerns conducted in Israel in 1962 and 1975 respectively. Both studies used identical questions developed by Hadley Cantril-open-ended questions in which the respondent described either his personal or his country's future in positive and/or in negative terms. Concerns were defined by three major facets: their evaluative direction, their psychological immediateness, and the life-area to which they pertain. Time and salience were considered indirectly. A basic structure was predicted: the patterning of concerns would remain relatively stable over the years. In the event, only a patterning by life-areas emerged, primarily for the personal concerns, but is was found to remain relatively stable over time. Hopes and fears on both personal and national issues intermingled in an overall configuration of the major concerns.     

Cross cultural comparisons of quality of life of Thais and Americans

Comparisons of quality of life (QOL) measures across cultures of countries in different stages of economic development have been very scarce. This study attempts to fill the void in the literature by investigating the level of overall life satisfaction and satisfaction with various domains of lives of Thais and Americans. Additionally, the relationships between satisfaction with domains of life and overall life satisfaction in each culture have been explored. The results of this study indicate that Thais are less satisfied with their lives in general and most of the domains of their lives than Americans. However, both Thais and Americans tend to be more satisfied with their personal domains of lives than environmental domains of lives. In addition, satisfaction with material possessions is found to contribute significantly to overall life satisfaction of Thais but not Americans. This suggests that material wealth or economic development is still a vital mechanism for enhancing QOL of people in Thailand, but is not important for enhancing QOL of people in the U.S.     

Estimates of the number of illegal aliens: An analysis of the sources of disagreement

This article analyzes differences in estimates of the number of illegal aliens in the United States. Although smaller than differences among estimates made by some of the earlier studies, estimates constructed in the past decade often differ by several million. An examination of the problems involved in making these estimates produced four likely sources of the discrepancies. The four sources of disagreement are discussed, followed by suggestions for improving the reliability of the estimates. Some consequences for immigration law reform are also addressed.     

Perceptions of quality of life in an industrializing country: The case of the Republic of Korea

Research on perceived quality of life to date has been confined to industrialized countries mostly in the West. As a result, very little has been known about the quality of life perceived and desired by the people living in industrializing countries. This study has sought to fill this void by analyzing data collected from a national sample survey conducted recently in Korea. The analysis has produced a number of results which do not accord with those from research undertaken in industrialized countries.     

A Sociological Review of the Reflections and Dimensions of Quality of Life of the Widows in Tehran

The article explores some of the theoretical perspectives on widows, followed by empirical findings on the issue in Tehran. Widowhood transition being pursued by drop in relations, is observed and examined from various dimensions, with the hope of improving the quality of life of the widows. Some of the socio-economic effects of widowhood as appraised by various thinkers and scientists, are reflected in the context. The phenomenon being in existence as long as socially regulated marriage continues under the cause-and-effect laws, needs probing with special reference to the modern time. That is, being subject to emotional crises, they need to be multi-dimensionally studied. Through a multi-method strategy, and with the use of questionnaire tool, data were collected. Widowhood as a common problem in old age is followed by the isolation, a period of change and new challenges, i.e., reflection of a major stressful life event. However, widows as a vulnerable social group are seen worldwide with commonalities. In other words, about half of the women householders in the world are widowed. The author reflects a clear and tangible picture of the widows’ quality of life, and their satisfaction with life through the tabulated data. Nevertheless, government and relevant agencies in Iran, need to work and plan hard to provide the widows with necessary security and support.     

人口老龄化中的中国国情

中国在人口生育政策的直接作用下,以急刹车的方式迅速地完成了人口类型的转变并步入了人口老龄化的行列,在此前提下本文试图着重阐述和强调:中国人口老龄化的形成较之发达国家相比有根本的不同,因此涉及人口老龄化中的诸多问题必然显示出差异性,表现出明显的中国国情。充分认识这个国情,才能从宏观上不失时机地把握好我国经济发展进程和人口老龄化进程的关系,才能有利有节的解决好历史进程中中国人口老龄化中的诸多问题。     

An analysis of the change of marriage pattern of Beijing women]

Changes in marriage patterns occur primarily in changes in the age at marriage. During a study of fertility among Beijing, China, women in 1981, another study was undertaken of the marriage situation of 8299 women who were born in 1914, 1920, 1930, 1940, and 1946. Data show that the rate of unmarried women was close to zero, which is one reason for the high birth rate in the past. A majority of the urban and rural women born in 1914, 1920, and 1930 married before the age of 15 years, indicating that the economic, social, and marriage customs for those decades changed very little. The 1940 cohort, however, showed no urban marriages prior to the age of 15 years and less than 1% in the villages, the reason being that these women were of marriageable age in the mid-to-late 1950s when China underwent major social and economic changes that raised the status of women and permitted them to join the work force or go to school. Very few urban women in the 1946 cohort married before 20 years of age, and the number of rural women who married before they were 18 years old declined noticeably. Findings also show that for both urban and rural women, the average age at marriage was 1-3 years later than the modal age at marriage. Beginning with the 1940 cohort the age at marriage was older by 2 1/2 years, signaling major changes. Except for the 1914 cohort, the median age at marriage for all others gradually became higher. 70% of the 1946 cohort voluntarily married after turning 23 years old, reflecting the effectiveness of the late marriage, late birth policy. Although close to 59% of rural women born in 1946 married before 23 years of age, nearly double the rate for urban women, it is nevertheless a major change from the 1930 cohort where 95% of the women married before turning 23 years old.     

The Courbage-Fargues method of indirect measurement of mortality: adequacy and inadequacy of the case of Togo in 1971

This study tests the validity of an indirect method of estimating mortality from inaccurate data from demographic investigations conducted in Togo in 1971. The method yields good results for Togo where life expectancy at birth is estimated at 40.51 years for males and 43.12 years for females. The article responds to the request of participants of the Colloquim of Abidjan and then corrects the mortality level of Togo in 1971 derived from the biased demographic investigation in Togo in 1971. OCDE tables were used to support estimates of mortality. A hypothesis of the method was that the deaths of the last 12 months are underreported in a constant proportion. A 2nd hypothesis was that the mortality of the country is related to a mortality pattern according to age. This method of Courbage-Fargues has produced satisfactory results. Certain demographers believe that the undercount rates are probably differentials according to age, particularly among those who die in the 1st few years of life. Others believe that knowledge of deaths that occur in the later years lacks certainty. Mortality data in Africa are not adequate enough to utilize as bases for estimates. For Togo, in particular, the application of other indirect measures of mortality is hoped for to allow comparisons.     

Effects of the timing of marriage and first birth of the spacing of subsequent births

Analyzing data from a fifteen-year follow-up survey of high school students originally surveyed in 1957–58 and resurveyed in 1973–74, this paper examines the effects of the timing of marriage and first birth on subsequent child spacing, holding constant the effects of other variables that may be sources of spuriousness. The results suggest that age at first marriage has a causal effect on the occurrence of a short first birth interval and that age at first marriage and premarital pregnancy interact in their effect on the occurrence of a short second birth interval. Age at first marriage has no causal effect on the spacing of the second birth for those whose first child was maritally conceived. The spacing of the first birth, however, appears to have a causal effect on the spacing of the second.     

Seasonality of coitus and seasonality of birth

Seasonal variation of birth rates has been observed in every population in which it has been studied. Many hypotheses have been advanced to account for the variation, including seasonal variation in frequency of coitus. This relationship is known to be true for other primates, but seasonal variation in coital rate has not been previously documented in man.This paper presents over one hundred woman-years of data on coital rates from about .fifty white, mostly well-educated, premenopausal, married, husband-present volunteers. Seasonal fluctuations were seen in coital rates, of about the same magnitude as seasonal variations in the white birth rates reported for New York City, 1962-64; for the United States, 1963; and for the highest socioeconomic quintile census tracts, Baltimore, 1952-56. However, shifting the birth rates back forty weeks to approximate conception dates revealed no association with the observed coital rates.If the pattern presented has great generality, seasonal variations in births cannot be explained by seasonality of coitus.     

The completeness of enumeration in the 1973 census of the population of Colombia

The effort is made to determine the true size and distribution by age and sex of the population of the Republic of Colombia in October 1973. After initially arriving at estimates of the levels of fertility and mortality during the intercensal period and then correcting the 1964 census population for age misreporting and selective undernumeration of males, a hypothetical populaiton corresponding to October 1973 is constructed. Comparing the constructed population with the population observed in the census yelds an estimate of completeness of enumeration in 1973 that is relative to the enumeration of females in 1964. This estimate is obtained under the assumption that net international migration during the period was of negligible importance. As there is reason to believe that this is not a valid assumption and upon examining the limited amount of evidence available, speculaitons are made concerning the amount of net out-migration to have occurred during the 1964-1973 period and the size of the coresponding modificaiton in the estimate of completeness of enumeration. After adjusting for underenumeration of males in 1964 and neglecting the impact of international migration, a theoretical 1973 census population of 23,201,000 was estimated. Apart from the total number of people enumerated, the information that was analyzed from the advance sample appears to be of good quality, at least in relation to prior censuses. The estimates of fertility and mortality reveal an important decline in Colombian fertility. By coming up with separate estimates of infant and childhood and adult mortality, it has been possible to shed new light on the shape and the level of mortality in Colombia. The new Brass method for estimating adult mortality provides reliable results even when mortality has been declining, and there are recognizable distortions in the distribution of the population by age.     

2000-2005年高龄老人生活满意度的变化分析

本文利用2000年和2005年高龄老人长寿健康调查的追踪数据,对高龄老人的生活满意度进行了两次调查的对比分析和同批人比较。对比分析发现,2005年高龄老人的生活满意度较2000年有所下降;而同批人分析表明,尽管整体上看高龄老人的生活满意度在五年间有所下降,但其内在的各种不同纬度变化却体现出生活满意度的积极变化趋势。     

Indicators and Implications of Zero Tolerance of Corruption: The Case of Hong Kong

Notwithstanding the voluminous studies of Hong Kong’s anticorruption experience and the admiration the ICAC has earned from other governments as a model for “institutional engineering,” little is known about how the public in Hong Kong has perceived and responded to corruption. Less clear is what factors beyond a powerful and independent anticorruption agency have made the Hong Kong experience possible. Drawing on original survey data collected in Hong Kong in 2010–2011, this study investigates what determines individual propensities to accept or reject corruption and explores the role of a zero-tolerance culture in preventing corruption. Evidence confirms the existence of a low tolerance for corruption in Hong Kong. It also reveals a more significant impact of informal institutions than formal ones on corruption tolerance levels. As the very first study of zero tolerance of corruption, this research adds considerable depth to our understanding of why Hong Kong has become one of the most corruption-free societies in the world and of the importance of civic engagement in deterring actual and potential corruption.