Analysis of capital expenditure projects with uncertain discrete cash flows

In this paper, a methodology is presented for evaluating risky projects whose cash flows, start times and durations are not known with certainty. The methodology directly computes statistics of the present worth (i.e. means and variances) from closed-form analytical formulas which are derived with explicit consideration of the risks associated with the individual variables that affect the profitability index of the projects. It is assumed that the cash flows occur discretely over time and that a fixed discount rate exists over the project duration. The application of the technique is demonstrated through systematic steps on a number of example problems.     

A comparative study of capital expenditure evaluation techniques

An empirical study of the techniques of economic evaluation of capital investment projects was made during 1973–1974 in India by the author. Influence of both the quantitative and qualitative factors on the determination of economic evaluation techniques was studied. Comparison has been made wherever possible with the practice in the United States of America.     

Classifying capital projects for top management decision-making

This paper is an attempt to redress a perceived imbalance in the research and literature of capital project analysis. There is a plethora of work on the quantitative aspects of project analysis, yet empirical surveys show limited use of such techniques. There is limited work on the organizational processes of project selection, but there appears to be little or no work taking place on formal organizational systems for project selection.The more quantitative literature generally takes a deductive approach using a model developed from microeconomics based on the assumption that the objective of the firm is the maximization of owners' wealth. In this paper it is argued that there is a need to take an inductive approach and place the capital investment decision in its organizational setting. This paper looks at the formal capital budgeting system within the corporate setting.It is suggested that the specific capital investment decision takes place against the background of a set of policies and constraints, which are more or less explicit.The selection of corporate projects is a complex issue, but to provide some structure so that the problems can be processed by the organization, a capital budgeting system is designed. Part of this system is the classification of projects according to some criteria. It would therefore appear that the purpose of this classification system is to aid capital project selection within an organizational context.A consideration of classification systems for capital projects is undertaken, this is followed by a survey of the classification systems which have been proposed in the capital investment literature. Finally a classification system based upon specific criteria is proposed.     

Computerized analysis of capital projects by DCF techniques

A program for the financial and economic analysis of capital projects is outlined in this article. The program is structured on three variants, which enable management among other things, to examine the influence of various financing methods on the rate of return on the equity capital (leverage). The program can provide a complete sensitivity analysis, to test how the project profitability is affected by changes in input data.     

Planning for production in construction: controlling costs in major capital projects

There has been limited research that has examined how the public sector can guarantee their major capital projects are delivered within budget. A Strategic Asset Management Framework (SAMF) developed by the Western Australian State Government, was implemented that ensured their major capital projects were delivered within 5% of their budget. Interviews were conducted with stakeholders who had participated in the delivery of capital projects using the SAMF to understand how it had been used to successfully deliver projects. The interviews highlighted the importance of the SAMF in addressing optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation with the use of independent auditors. The research provides invaluable insights from practice that have been used to control and manage the capital expenditure of assets. Such knowledge is pivotal for ensuring strides are made forward to addressing the cost growth phenomenon that continues to plague major capital projects.     

The role of the controller in strategic capital investment projects: bridging the gap of multiple topoi

Journal of Management and Governance - The literature on capital budgeting and investment proposals is rich with techniques, such as portfolio management and stage-gate project management, which...     

预测困难与预测发展

"凡事预则立,不预则废"这充分说明预测在决策中的重要性,但由于社会、经济系统的复杂性、不确定性,预测有时是困难的,基于此点,人们不断探索新的预测方法。神经网络预测正是近年来发展起来的一种新的预测方法,本文详细探讨了预测困难后,讨论了神经网络预测的优点与不足,并对预测发展提出了自己的思路。     

PPP项目中信任对商业模式创新行为影响的实验研究:社会资本创新能力的调节作用

本文通过文献分析构建了以社会资本感知的信任为自变量、商业模式创新行为为因变量、社会资本创新能力为调节变量的理论模型。采用问卷调查的方式开展情境模拟实验,并采集到119份有效的实验数据。运用方差分析处理实验数据,对提出的理论模型进行实证检验。研究结果显示:(1)信任的三个维度(制度信任、认知信任、情感信任)对商业模式创新行为的产生和执行均具有显著正向影响;(2)制度信任对商业模式创新行为产生、执行的影响不受社会资本创新能力的调节,而情感信任对商业模式创新行为产生、执行的影响均受到其调节;(3)认知信任对商业模式创新行为产生的影响受到社会资本创新能力的调节,而认知信任对商业模式创新行为执行的影响不受其调节。在此基础上,本文为政府及相关部门激励社会资本进行商业模式创新提出策略建议。     

Cost-effectiveness in defence expenditure

Decision-making in defence is complicated by the need to make long-range plans with regard to weapons systems and force structures in an environment marked by great strategic and technological uncertainty. Cost-effectiveness analysis, which is a variant of the general analytical approach, is an attempt to clarify and structure defence choice situations. As a method of analysis, it shares certain properties of both cost-benefit and operational analysis, and indeed emerged from them in response to the unique needs of defence planners. Cost-effectiveness analysis involves a number of conceptual and practical problems, but its most difficult challenge is the requirement to exist in a political and bureaucratic environment where the system of incentives may not be compatible with the notion of economic rationality. However, the recent appearance of competitive cost-effectiveness analysis of defence options promises to promote the relevance and applicability of this approach.     

基于混合估计与预测方法的股市交易量预报

本文通过将目标状态的小波变换系数向量描述为卡尔曼滤波方法的状态变量,进而将卡尔曼滤波和小波分析相结合,提出了既具有实时性和递归性又具有多尺度分析能力的小波-卡尔曼滤波混合估计与预测方法(wavelet-Kalman filtering hybrid estimating and forecasting algorithm,WKHEFA).运用此方法,本文较好地预测了上证指数的交易量.     

Public expenditure and public accountability

Within a parliamentary democracy, both the Executive and Legislature have key roles in ensuring public accountability for budgetary decisions. The internal budgetary processes of the United Kingdom Government have developed the PESC system of planning public expenditure over a rolling five year period at constant prices. At the same time, the effectiveness of parliamentary financial procedures, far removed from the decision processes, has further declined. The key weaknesses are identified as: (1) the almost complete divorce between parliamentary discussion of expenditure and that of taxation; (2) the manner in which the Government's survival might be imperilled by defeat even on minor items, which limits the activities of Government backbenchers; (3) the unequal knowledge and resources of Government and Parliament, accentuated by British traditions of official secrecy; and (4) the failure of Parliament to seize those opportunities which are available (e.g. debates on the annual Public Expenditure White Paper). Proposals have been made for reform of financial procedures and for a new system of select committees by the Expenditure and Procedure Committees. These are evaluated and given a cautious approval. The emphasis is on the aim of integrating parliamentary debate of the expenditure and revenue sides of the public budget. A single budgetary document is proposed. Multi-year tax forecasts, and the underlying medium term economic assessment, should be published. ‘Tax expenditures’ should be carefully costed and linked to the relevant expenditure programmes. These reforms would provide a more coherent and comprehensive framework for public debate of budgetary decisions.     

Changing perspectives on the capital investment process

The environment within which institutions undertake commercial and industrial activity changes both as a result of decisions dependent on the institution itself and as a result of decisions independent of the institution. In recent years many of these changes have resulted in changing perspectives on the range of criteria which should be considered when determining how and where large corporations should invest their money. This paper examines these changes in corporate practice and identifies the cumulative results of these changes in the environment of corporate activity. The paper also examines some of the key elements in new approaches which corporations are adopting to capital investment decisions by utilizing data on a broadly based research project which examines in depth the capital investment/ resource allocation processes of five large, worldwide, manufacturing firms. The subject is of vital importance to large and small businesses, both because of the crucial importance of investment decisions and because of the importance for future strategic planning of identifying the environment within which corporate activities take place.     

A performative exploration of the lifeworlds of human capital and financial capital: an intellectual capital case vignette

Journal of Management and Governance - The primary purpose here is to briefly outline and illustrate how one particular relationist/realist ontological approach to performative research, with a...     

基于漂移度的组合预测方法研究

由于不同的预测方法能够提供不同的有用信息,其预测精度往往也存在差异,为了分散预测的风险,采用组合预测方法。本文首先提出相容方法集和互补模型集,然后在对不同单一预测模型的漂移性和互补性研究的基础上提出了基于漂移度的组合预测模型,为组合预测模型研究提供一种新的思路。最后通过实例来说明基于漂移度的组合预测模型能够提高样本期预测精度和外推预测精度及实际应用的有效性。     

基于股价预测的泛证券投资组合策略

本文基于期望效用最大化和L₁-中位数估计研究了在线投资组合选择问题。与EG（Exponential Gradient）策略仅利用单期价格信息估计价格趋势不同,本文将利用多期价格信息估计价格趋势,以提高在线策略的性能。首先,基于多期价格数据,利用L₁-中位数估计得到预期价格趋势。然后,通过期望效用最大化,提出一个新的具有线型时间复杂度的在线策略,EGLM（Exponential Gradient via L₁-Median）。并通过相对熵函数定义资产权重向量的距离,进而证明了EGLM策略具有泛证券投资组合性质。最后,利用国内外6个证券市场的历史数据进行实证分析,结果表明相较于UP（Universal Portfolio）策略和EG策略,EGLM策略有更好的竞争性能。     

基于多尺度分析的小麦价格预测研究

本文基于分解-重构-集成的思想,构建了一个多尺度组合预测模型,选取小麦作为粮食的代表,预测其价格走势。首先,运用集合经验模态分解方法(EEMD)分解价格序列,然后,用灰色关联分析方法对分量序列进行重构,重构为高频、中频、低频和趋势项四个部分,并从不规则因素、季节因素、重大事件和世界经济水平等方面对这四个部分波动特点进行解释,针对不同特点的分量选择不同的方法进行预测,最后对各预测结果用支持向量机集成,并与其他预测模型的预测结果进行比较。实证结果表明,本文构建的多尺度组合模型的预测效果优于灰色预测GM(1,1)、BP神经网络、SVM方法、ARIMA模型等单模型方法和ARIMA-SVM组合模型以及基于EMD和EEMD分解的其他多尺度组合模型。     

Planning major international projects

The large-scale engineering contract has become a front line of endeavour for contractors, equipment suppliers and bankers, in a number of industries. In spite of its importance this topic is not well documented. This paper deals particularly with Engineering Contracting. It describes strategies for success in tendering and execution, and in particular puts forward thinking on the relations between government and contractors, between contractors and suppliers, and within the contractors own organizations. In the implementation of these strategies the work of the industrial co-ordination unit is crucial.     

Forecasting organizational changes

In this article the author argues that because of the difficulties associated with human behaviour such factors are frequently omitted from forecasts. Yet no organization can afford to disregard these factors if their forecasts are to be meaningful. The author includes illustrations of organizational change which he maintains will spread rapidly. Finally he discusses his own initial experiments in forecasting organizational change.     

Self-enforcing capital tax coordination

Capital tax competition is known to result in inefficiently low tax rates and an undersupply of public goods. The provision of public goods and with it the welfare of all countries can be enhanced via tax coordination. Based on the standard Zodrow-Mieszkowski-Wilson tax-competition model this paper analyzes the conditions under which tax coordination by a group of countries is self-enforcing. In our analytical framework, there always exists a rather small stable tax coalition. For some subset of the parameter space the grand coalition is stable, even if the total number of countries is large. If the stable coalition is small, it is not very effective in mitigating the inefficiency of the non-cooperative Nash equilibrium. The ineffectiveness is increasing in the total number of countries.