Dutch books and agent rationality

According to the Dutch Book Argument (DBA), if an agent's subjective probabilities fail to satisfy the axioms of the probability calculus and so make the agent vulnerable to a Dutch Book, the agent's subjective probabilities are incoherent and the agent is therefore irrational. Critics of DBA have argued, however, that probabilistic incoherence is compatible with various kinds of rationality – logico-semantic, epistemic, instrumental and prudential. In this paper, I provide an interpretation of DBA on which it is true that probabilistic incoherence entails agent irrationality. Articulating this interpretation requires the specification of some of the connections among the varieties of rationality. Once this is done, it becomes possible to vindicate a modest version of DBA.     

Reflective coherence and Newcomb problems: A simple solution

Assignments of greater expected value to dominated options in Newcomb problems are analyzed as manifestations of reflective incoherence. The prospect of a greater reward by choosing a dominated option is illusory, since any ill gotten, i.e. irrational, gains can be leeched away by submitting the agent to a dynamic Dutch Book. In the Appendix, a proof is given which shows that if the agent is to avoid the Dutch Book in Newcomb situations, his degrees of belief are reflectively coherent if and only if his desirabilities at the time of choice align with his desirabilities at the time of action.     

Toward a theory of myth

James Cresswell provides a thoughtful critique of my essay on a theory of myth (Mills) with a specific focus on the nature of theorizing that challenges the dogma of empirical frames of reference, concluding that scientific theories themselves are contemporary myths. Insofar as myth is an attempt to provide a narrative or discourse about phenomena, Cresswell's argument could apply to any theory. But he takes this point further: theory is synonymous with myth. In order to unpack this evocative claim, it may prove useful to revisit how theory and myth relate to the concepts of logos, truth, ontology and identity. In the end, I suggest theory is not myth because theory sets out to describe, interpret and explain phenomena and is scrutinized for its validity, generalizability and applied consequences, while the premises of myth are often historically and culturally presupposed or simply devolve into belief that may or may not be defensible.     

For Emergence: Refining Archer's Account of Social Structure

The question of social structure and its relationship to human agency remains one of the central problems of social theory. One of the most promising attempts to provide a solution has been Margaret Archer's morphogenetic approach, which invokes emergence to justify treating social structure as causally effective. Archer's argument, however, has been criticised by a number of authors who suggest that the examples she cites can be explained in reductionist terms and thus that they fail to sustain her claim for the independent causal effectiveness of social structure. This paper offers an alternative argument to support the emergentist claim for the causal effectiveness of social structure, and shows how this argument refutes a representative critique of social emergence.     

What are the minimal requirements of rational choice? Arguments from the sequential-decision setting

There are at least two plausible generalisations of subjective expected utility (SEU) theory: cumulative prospect theory (which relaxes the independence axiom) and Levi’s decision theory (which relaxes at least ordering). These theories call for a re-assessment of the minimal requirements of rational choice. Here, I consider how an analysis of sequential decision making contributes to this assessment. I criticise Hammond’s (Economica 44(176):337–350, 1977; Econ Philos 4:292–297, 1988a; Risk, decision and rationality, 1988b; Theory Decis 25:25–78, 1988c) ‘consequentialist’ argument for the SEU preference axioms, but go on to formulate a related diachronic-Dutch-book-style’ argument that better achieves Hammond’s aims. Some deny the importance of Dutch-book sure losses, however, in which case, Seidenfeld’s (Econ Philos 4:267–290, 1988a) argument that distinguishes between theories that relax independence and those that relax ordering is relevant. I unravel Seidenfeld’s argument in light of the various criticisms of it and show that the crux of the argument is somewhat different and much more persuasive than what others have taken it to be; the critical issue is the modelling of future choices between ‘indifferent’ decision-tree branches in the sequential setting. Finally, I consider how Seidenfeld’s conclusions might nonetheless be resisted.     

《尚书》的语体风格

语体是适应不同交际功能、不同题旨情境而形成的运用语言的体系。《尚书》语体的常规是使用单音节词、使用散句、句不协韵、语义直陈,《尚书》语体的偏离是使用复音节词、使用整句、部分协韵、使用比喻。在常规与偏离的对比中,《尚书》简质而不刻板的语体风格得以形成。     

How to Evaluate Government Performance while Building a Rule of Law Government in China*

Building a law-based government is a central element of the comprehensive framework for promoting the rule of law in China, while using evaluation to catalyze growth is in line with the incentive principle of management studies. Since China started to implement reform and opening up over thirty years ago, rule of law development and organizational evaluation have gone through several stages, each with different characteristics. Efforts to build a law-based government have met with success, but what the country now has is essentially still goal-oriented assessment. At present, this suffers from the lack of a clear goal orientation or definition of functions, an imperfect technical system and unsound motivation mechanisms, not to mention the practical problems of each government department going its own way, duplicating evaluations or being left rudderless. Drawing on a combination of value rationality and instrumental rationality and using government performance evaluation to promote the building of a law-based government not only conforms to the spirit of the rule of law and value rationality in government performance, but also strengthens the role of evaluation as an instrument for organizational management. Therefore, we need to create new evaluation theories, expand public participation, introducing diversified evaluating entities, improve technical systems, strengthen institutional buildup, and foster a performance-based culture. In addition, replacing goal-oriented assessment with performance evaluation will help the emergence of a new discipline—the performance evaluation of rule of law government, thus promoting multidisciplinary efforts to integrate and create new public administration theories in China.     

Explaining differences in unemployment benefit takeup between labour migrants and Dutch native workers

The large increase in Eastern European migrants entering the Dutch labour market has led to concerns about their potential claim on Dutch unemployment benefits. We use a decomposition analysis to investigate differences in uptake of unemployment benefits between migrants and native Dutch employees by analysing register data for all employees in the Netherlands in 2015. The results show that Eastern European migrants, similar to other migrants, receive unemployment benefit more often than native Dutch employees. This difference can be largely ascribed to job characteristics. The inclusion of unemployment risk in the analysis reveals that non-working migrants are much less likely to receive unemployment benefits than Dutch natives.     

Science,reason and value

There is a relatively simple argument which shows that science is not, in any important sense, value free. Further, if science is not value free, it may be that the values involved in science rest upon moral considerations. In this paper the author examines one argument for the claim that science essentially involves value, and then looks at the types of values which may be an essential facet of scientific inquiry.     

现代宗教是理性选择的吗质疑宗教的理性选择研究范式

本文在关注宗教社会学理论如何给现代社会的宗教现象以合理的解释的同时,对运用理性选择理论解释现代宗教的取向提出商榷。尽管理性选择理论非常强势,号称有相当普遍的解释力,但本文还是试图对以理性选择理论来解释现代社会宗教的有效性提出质疑,认为 “宗教经济”范式中的宗教市场的“供方”与“求方”是理解宗教的错误逻辑,在工具理性和价值理性两个重要概念中有相互混淆和偷换之嫌。本文最后指出,目前仅以宗教市场理论研究中国宗教具有一定的危险性,必须谨慎地使用。     

诸神之争的再阐释:一个社会学的结构视角

世俗化及逆世俗化范式的对立其实蕴含着更大的连续性,即如何理解宗教多元主义背后的诸神之争,总的来说,韦伯之后那些解释宗教变迁的理论范式均未突破韦伯对宗教的比较研究范畴,难以在当前复杂而多元的文化环境下为个人提供总体指导,但是二者共同揭露了诸神之争条件下西方宗教工具理性和价值理性交互作用所促成的理性化的动力机制,即西方宗教维护自身价值理性的方式从中世纪教会主导的政治性垄断过渡到现代性条件下宗教多元主义的市场化竞争。     

社会表演理论：在仪式和策略之间建立文化语用学模型（下）

一直以来，对文化的社会研究不是被极端化为结构主义理论就是被极端化为实用主义理论，前者视意义为文本并注重探索提供相对自主性的模式，后者则将意义处理为由个人或集体行动之权变性的创发--即所谓的实践本身，并将文化模式作为权力和物质利益之反应加以分析。在本文中，我将阐述一个超越这种极化视野的文化语用学理论，以新的方式将意义结构、权变性、权力和物质性融为一体。我的论点是，实践的物质性可以由维度更多的表演概念所取代。通过对表演研究这一新领域的成果的吸收，文化语用学说明社会表演，无论个人还是集体的，是如何可能被系统地类推为剧场表演的。在定义了社会表演的要素之后，我认为，随着社会变得更加复杂，这些要素已经趋于“分解”（de fused）。只有在能够将这些日渐离析的要素“再融合”的情况下，表演才会成功。在融合化的表演中，观众认同演员，且文化剧本通过有效的舞台布景达到逼真的程度。而当诸要素重新连接的过程并不完美时,表演就会失败：表演要素仍处于分离状态，社会行动看上去不但不够本真（authentic），而且显得造作和难以令人信服。与此相对，再融合能使演员成功地传达其行动的意义并有效地实现他们的利益。     

社会表演理论——在仪式和策略之间建立文化语用学模型（上）

一直以来，对文化的社会研究不是被极端化为结构主义理论就是被极端化为实用主义理论，前者视意义为文本并注重探索提供相对自主性的模式，后者则将意义处理为由个人或集体行动之权变性的创发--即所谓的实践本身，并将文化模式作为权力和物质利益之反应加以分析。在本文中，我将阐述一个超越这种极化视野的文化语用学理论，以新的方式将意义结构、权变性、权力和实质性融为一体。我的论点是，实践的实质性可以由维度更多的表演概念所取代。通过对表演研究这一新领域的成果的吸收，文化语用学说明社会表演，无论个人还是集体的，是如何可能被系统地类推为剧场表演的。在定义了社会表演的要素之后，我认为，随着社会变得更加复杂，这些要素已经趋于“分解”（de fused）。只有在能够将这些日渐离析的要素“再融合”的情况下，表演才会成功。在融合化的表演中，观众认同演员，且文化剧本通过有效的舞台布景达到逼真的程度。而当诸要素重新连接的过程并不完美时,表演就会失败：表演要素仍处于分离状态，社会行动看上去不但不够本真（authentic），而且显得造作和难以令人信服。与此相对，再融合能使演员成功地传达其行动的意义并有效地实现他们的利益。     

Controlling Access to Sick Leave Programmes: Practices of Physicians in the Netherlands

Policymakers in industrialized countries attempt to contain the costs of sick leave and disability schemes by limiting access to include medically proven cases only. However, a person's incapacity to work cannot be fully deduced by referring to his or her medical condition. It is the question whether using more restrictive eligibility criteria that focus on medical evidence actually reduces the number of benefit recipients and makes access to employee benefit arrangements fairer. This ethnographic study shows that physicians working in Dutch illness certification practices use alternative methods to restrict access to sick leave programmes. Doctors do not control their clients in a restrictive sense of the word. Rather, they exercise control over their clients by inciting them to internalize norms about being active and responsible. While we do not claim that this is good per se, we do contend that this control style may have some advantages over and above more restrictive control mechanisms. Elaborating on policy that supports this alternative notion of control, therefore, seems worthwhile.     

Negotiation support: Development of representations and reasoning

The general importance of negotiations and bargaining as means of decision making has given rise to considerable research within two broad paradigms. The behavioral paradigm has attempted to discover rationality in specific situations in order to generalize. The formal paradigm has assumed a general rationality which could be applied to specific problems. This strict dichotomy imposes unnecessary restrictions on the use of formal approaches to structure, represent, and support negotiators. Logic-based approaches, such as rule-based formalism, make it possible to blend unique and specific aspects of a problem, with general reasoning mechanisms and rationality postulates. This paper introduces rule-based formalism and discusses its advantages and disadvantages. It attempts to present its ability to represent complex decision processes and to reason using formal structures. The approach is illustrated with several simple examples.     

Norms and rationality. Is moral behavior a form of rational action?

This article addresses major arguments in the controversy about the “rationality” of moral behavior: can moral behavior be explained by rational choice theory (RCT)? The two positions discussed are the incentives thesis (norms are incentives as any other costs and benefits) and the autonomy thesis claiming that moral behavior has nothing to do with utility. The article analyses arguments for the autonomy thesis by J. Elster, A. Etzioni, and J. G. March and J. P. Olsen. Finally, the general claim is discussed whether norm following and norm emergence are utility maximizing. The conclusion is that the autonomy thesis is not tenable if one applies a wide subjectivist, social psychological version of RCT that includes the assumption of “bounded rationality.” The autonomy thesis is only compatible with a narrow version of RCT that excludes internal outcomes and that refers to norms that do not have external outcomes. It is argued that such a narrow version is not capable of explaining many forms of behavior social scientists are interested in.     

Deriving Harsanyi’s Utilitarianism from De Finetti’s Book-Making Argument

The book-making argument was introduced by de Finetti as a principle to prove the existence and uniqueness of subjective probabilities. It has subsequently been accepted as a principle of rationality for decisions under uncertainty. This note shows that the book-making argument has relevant applications to welfare: it gives a new foundation for utilitarianism that is alternative to Harsanyi’s, it generalizes foundations based on the theorem of the alternative, and it avoids arguments based on expected utility.     

国内责任政府研究的历史与现状

自上个世纪80年代末以来,国内责任政府研究经历了三个发展阶段,学界一般认同责任政府包括价值与制度层面,并和政府的责任体系密切相关。政府的责任包括政治、行政、道德、法律等方面,认为责任政府是自由、民主、宪政意义下的政府义务的回归与明确,对于中国的政府建设具有积极意义。但是,研究中也存在着概念不清晰、内容不全面、理论不彻底、研究方法混乱、对国外研究了解不够等缺陷,从而影响了责任政府的研究向纵深发展。     

Can oil-led growth and structural change go hand in hand in Ghana?

Unlike in Asia, the manufacturing sector has not (yet) become a driver of structural change in Africa. One common explanation is that the natural resource-focus of many African economies leads to Dutch disease effects. To test this argument for the case of newly found oil in Ghana we develop a multi-sector intertemporal general equilibrium model with endogenous savings and investment behavior. Results show that in addition to the well-known short-term Dutch disease effects, long-term structural effects can indeed impede Asian-style economic transformation in Ghana (and other resource rich countries). We also demonstrate how oil wealth may go hand in hand with structural change in the future.     

The Backward Induction Argument

The backward induction argument purports to show that rational and suitably informed players will defect throughout a finite sequence of prisoner's dilemmas. It is supposed to be a useful argument for predicting how rational players will behave in a variety of interesting decision situations. Here, I lay out a set of assumptions defining a class of finite sequences of prisoner's dilemmas. Given these assumptions, I suggest how it might appear that backward induction succeeds and why it is actually fallacious. Then, I go on to consider the consequences of adopting a stronger set of assumptions. Focusing my attention on stronger sets that, like the original, obey the informedness condition, I show that any supplementation of the original set that preserves informedness does so at the expense of forcing rational participants in prisoner's dilemma situations to have unexpected beliefs, ones that threaten the usefulness of backward induction.