The Influence of Unemployment Benefits on Unemployment Duration: Evidence from Spain

ABSTRACT: This paper analyses the duration of unemployment spells and the possible incidence of unemployment insurance on job search behaviour and voluntary duration of unemployment in Spain. To do so, a longitudinal data set containing information on unemployment recipients during the period 1987-93 is used. Hazard rates and survival profiles are constructed for the cohorts of unemployed workers entering the benefit system at different points in time, and a logit model of the probability of leaving the system before exhausting entitlement period is presented. The results do not support the view that the unemployed tend to intensify their job search when benefits are near exhaustion.     

Unemployment Propensity and Unemployment Duration

ABSTRACT: This paper analyses the factors affecting the duration of an unemployment spell. The results indicate the absence of statistically significant ‘‘duration dependence‘‘ effects for men. Person-specific unemployment propensity is found to have a significant effect on re-employment probabilities. The latter implies an unequal distribution of unemployment burden among the population.     

Vacancy Referrals,Job Search,and the Duration of Unemployment: A Randomized Experiment

One goal of the Public Employment Service is to facilitate matching between unemployed job‐seekers and job vacancies; another goal is to monitor job search so as to bring search efforts among the unemployed in line with search requirements. The referral of job‐seekers to vacancies is one instrument used for these purposes. We report results from a randomized Swedish experiment where the outcome of referrals is examined. To what extent do unemployed individuals actually apply for the jobs they are referred to? Does information to job‐seekers about increased monitoring affect the probability of applying and the probability of leaving unemployment? The experiment indicates that a relatively large fraction (one‐third) of the referrals do not result in job applications. Information about intensified monitoring causes an increase in the probability of job application, especially among young people. However, we find no significant impact on the duration of unemployment.     

Unemployment Duration in an Unemployment Blackspot

This paper analyses the factors affecting the duration of an unemployment spell amongst a sample of exclusively long-term unemployed individuals. The results indicate that person-specific unemployment propensities have a significant effect on re-employment probabilities. These effects, however, vary significantly by gender and religion. The results also indicate statistically significant negative ‘duration dependence’ effects. The evidence suggests that employers regard long unemployment durations as a ‘negative signal’ about an applicant's potential productivity. The latter implies that, in terms of government policies aimed at reducing unemployment, the demand-side of the unemployment equation should be given greater emphasis.     

Heterogeneity and Unemployment Duration

ABSTRACT: Various unemployment duration models are estimated on a large Norwegian dataset covering labour market history 1.1.1989-31.12.1992 for all persons who became unemployed during October 1990. As many unemployed leave the unemployment register without going directly to a job, two alternative definitions of unemployment are used — register unemployment and joblessness. The problem of heterogeneity is addressed both by partitioning the individuals into four categories by previous unemployment history, and by including a random term in the job hazard. Observed as well as unobserved heterogeneity affects the estimates of expected duration to a great extent. When gamma-distributed unobserved heterogeneity is accounted for, the estimates of duration dependence become more positive relative to models where unobserved heterogeneity is ignored. Among persons who are entitled to unemployment benefit, the duration dependence appears to be significantly positive. Alternative specifications of the baseline hazard hardly affect estimates of the effects of the covariates on duration.     

失业保险给付期限差异下的失业持续时间研究

本文对享受不同失业保险给付期限的失业者的失业持续时间差异进行了实证研究。根据工作搜寻理论,应用存活分析方法建立了含有失业保险给付期限因素的失业持续时间模型,并对青岛市失业者登记数据进行了实证研究。结果表明:享受失业保险者的失业持续时间明显长于不享受失业保险者的失业持续时间,在失业保险给付额度相同的条件下,失业保险给付期限与失业持续时间成同向变动关系。     

Effects of Changes in the Unemployment Insurance Eligibility Requirements on Job Duration — Swedish Evidence

This paper investigates the impact of the unemployment insurance (UI) entrance requirement on employment duration among earlier unemployed in Sweden. I exploit changes in the rules taking place in 1994 and 1997 to study behavioural adjustments in the timing of job separation in 1992, 1996, and 1998, respectively. Performing across‐year analyses with years involving different working requirements, I find some evidence of clustering of job exits at the time of UI qualification. By using predicted hazard rates for each week, I calculate an approximate 2.3‐week extension in average employment duration between 1996 and 1998, due to the 5‐week prolonging of the entrance requirement.     

Unemployment Determinants for Women in Spain

Spain has one of the highest rates of unemployment among OECD countries. Some explanations for this stress the importance of unemployment duration compared with entry rates to the unemployment pool. Long‐term unemployment rates are particularly high among women in Spain. The object of this paper is to investigate the determinants of unemployment duration among women. It will consider personal characteristics (education and age), family background, socio‐economic variables (the number of household earners and household income) and the effect of unemployment benefits, using data from the Household Expenditure Survey 1990–91.     

The Effect of Unemployment Insurance Generosity on Unemployment Duration and Labor Market Transitions

This paper examines the impact of unemployment insurance (UI) benefit generosity on labor market transitions in Turkey from 2002 to 2012. Using a unique administrative dataset, I take advantage of a sharp discontinuity in treatment assignment at 900‐paid‐premium‐days to identify the impact of generosity on the outcome variables. I find that unemployment benefit duration is increased by approximately 0.07 weeks per additional week of UI. However, more generous benefits lead to lower probabilities of transition to employment and the impact is greater compared to developed countries. In addition, workers who are entitled to longer UI periods have lower probabilities of cheating the system and rejecting the services of the Turkish Employment Agency.     

A Qualitative Analysis of Unemployment in Spain

Abstract. This paper analyzes the demographic characteristics of unemployment in Spain using individual household data. Binary-logit models are estimated for three microdata sets at different periods of time, in order to detect possible compositional changes in unemployment over time. The results indicate that characteristics such as age, education level and marital status are relevant to explain differences in unemployment. The fact that the male and female models turn out to be very similar may be due to hidden female unemployment. The estimated models are used to predict unemployment probabilities as a function of individual characteristics.     

Rehires and Unemployment Duration in the Swedish Labour Market — New Evidence of Temporary Layoffs

The paper investigates temporary layoffs in the Swedish labour market. Previous reports of few temporary layoffs are rejected. About 45 percent of unemployed people who found a job returned to a previous employer. As a stock measure, 10 percent of the unemployed are on temporary layoff. Using new job and recall as distinct exits in a competing risks model, one cannot reject a horizontal duration dependence for new jobs, while the recall hazard shows a strong, negative duration dependence. Clearer predictions of the effect of education on job probabilities are also found. Further, the results probably have implications for the interpretation of several policy parameters, including labour market programme outcomes.     

Job Stability Trends,Lay‐offs,and Transitions to Unemployment in West Germany

This paper examines the evolution of different aspects of job stability, notably the termination reasons and the transition states. We estimate Semi‐Parametric Cox Hazard Models with competing risks for West Germany and find an increasing hazard of job ending that is driven by an increasing hazard of being laid off, primarily. One explanation found is that men with fixed‐term contracts face increasing risks of being displaced. In accordance with the technological change hypothesis we also find that men with a high degree of non‐routine interactive tasks face a declining risk of displacement.     

Gender Differences in Formal On‐the‐Job Training: Incidence,Duration, and Intensity

This paper explores whether there is a gender gap in the incidence, duration, intensity, and number of events of on‐the‐job training. Overall, women appear to receive a higher incidence of on‐the‐job training whereas men receive on‐the‐job training of longer duration. Including measures intended to capture the extent of labor force attachment and expected tenure fails to reduce the gender gap in the duration of on‐the‐job training. Therefore, the gender gap in the duration of on‐the‐job training must be attributed to differences in unobserved worker characteristics that differ by gender or discrimination.     

Hazard Analysis of Unemployment Duration by Gender in a Developing Country: The Case of Turkey

There is little evidence on unemployment duration and its determinants in developing countries. This study is on the duration aspect of unemployment in a developing country, Turkey. We analyse the determinants of the probability of leaving unemployment for employment or the hazard rate. The effects of the personal and household characteristics and the local labour market conditions are examined. The analyses are carried out for men and women separately. The results indicate that the nature of unemployment in Turkey exhibits similarities to the unemployment in both the developed and the developing countries.     

Empirical Analyses of Causal Relationships among Estimated Aggregate Unemployment Duration and Some Properly Chosen Economic Variables

ABSTRACT: The paper is concerned with estimating and analysing the duration of unemployment, that is the length of time people spend on average looking for work. The first issue of the paper is to estimate unemployment duration using data from the survey on labour force done quarterly in Italy by ISTAT, the National Institute of Statistics. The survey data on the duration of unemployment measure duration so far, that is the average length of unemployment spells in progress up to the date of the survey, but they don't provide any information about completed duration of unemployment experimented by people before finding a job or leaving the labour force. In order to estimate the average length of completed unemployment spells, we would have to use data on cohorts of people followed from the time of entry to the time of exit from the labour market. As longitudinal data is not available, the problem becomes rather complex. One way to get round this is to use data on flows to firstly estimate probabilities of leaving unemployment within a particular period. The available data refer to quarterly flows and yearly flows. This makes it possible to estimate short-term unemployment (less than six months) and long-term unemployment (more than twelve months). In another paper we have analysed the nature of the bias introduced by estimating short-term and long-term unemployment in the way we do, and we have come to the conclusion that the bias is approximately a constant, which can be very easily estimated and eliminated. The second issue of the paper is to analyse the estimated short-term and long-term unemployment in relation to cyclical changes in the economic system and with trend changes in the number of unemployed people seeking the first job. In particular, we want to establish the extent of causal relationships between the chosen explanatory variables and the dependent variable. These causal analyses are done separately for the male and female population, and cover the period from the first quarter of 1979 to the last quarter of 1986.     

Unions,Firing Costs,and Unemployment

Abstract. We study the effects of firing costs in unionized economies with heterogeneous workers. We consider an overlapping generations model where workers participate in the labour market both when young and when old. All workers belong to the same union that sets wages unilaterally. We find that at given wages firing costs increase youth unemployment and decrease old‐age unemployment. However, once the wage response is considered, firing costs increase both youth and old‐age unemployment. Indeed, knowing that when firing costs are higher firms refrain from firing, the union increases the wage of old workers, and, therefore, old‐age unemployment increases.     

Unemployment,Labour Institutions and Innovation

ABSTRACT: This contribution endorses the transactional trilogy of institutional economics in order to suggest a theoretical framework for re-examining the relationships between unemployment, labour institutions, and technological and organisational innovation. Labour institutions are usually called into question in the debates on European unemployment. Although the advocates of the biased technological change thesis defend it in order to improve the employment of unskilled workers, this article argues that a deregulation of the labour market may in fact generate losses of dynamic efficiency with respect to knowledge accumulation, the organisation of production and national capabilities of innovation. In addition, the impact of technological and organisational innovation on employment partly depends on the capabilities of firms and nations to initiate institutional learning, regarding bargaining, managerial and rationing transactions.     

Unemployment,Vacancies and Unfair Dismissals

In most West European economies the annual number of grievance procedures settling individual complaints against unfair dismissals has been increasing since the 1960s. This development has very often been attributed to the enactment of legal regulations restricting the dismissal behaviour of firms. Econometric analyses using data from Germany and Great Britain show that labour market developments, namely the flow into unemployment and the vacancy rate, have a much stronger influence on the cyclical demand for grievance procedures than changes in the “legal infrastructure” of the labour market. Without denying the importance of institutional differences it appears that the individual costs of unemployment (which, ceteris paribus, rise as the flow into unemployment increases and the vacancy rate decreases) are superior predictors of the demand for grievance procedures than institutional changes strengthening or weakening employees' rights.     

Matching Inefficiencies,Regional Disparities,and Unemployment

Abstract. In this paper we apply a stochastic frontier approach to examine how matching inefficiencies and regional disparities in structural factors contribute to regional and aggregate unemployment. Our results suggest that there would be a substantial decline in aggregate unemployment if (i) all local labour offices operated with full efficiency or (ii) they shared the same structure of job seekers and vacant jobs as the most favourable office. In the former case an increase in hirings would lower the average unemployment rate by 2.4 percentage points. In the latter case the decrease would be 1.4 percentage points. Further, we find that fixed effects are positively correlated with both a more favourable structure and higher efficiency. This suggests that the fixed effects may capture some part of time‐invariant features in the structure and inefficiency. Thus, the role of structural factors and inefficiency in regional unemployment disparities may be higher than estimated.