Appendix. Incomes Policies in Europe during the Eighties

Abstract. Moving off from the lessons of the Italian incomes policy experience of the 1980s, this paper presents a new framework to interpret the performance of incomes policy (LP) agreements and institutions, and propose new strategies for the 1990s. IP is viewed as a cooperative outcome that evolves from a non-cooperative long-term game between several players (workers, unions, firms, government, parliament, etc.), along the lines of the model drawn up by Brunetta and Carraro (1988). The paper is divided into three sections. The first summarizes the history of IP in Italy, starting from the phase of the predetermination of disinflation (1983-84). We firstly outline some of the fundamental features of recent Italian development (the “Italian model”), noting how new IP measures could be taken to create an adequate response to the new European and international deadlines. The difficulties and uncertainties that presently exist at both national and international level make the introduction of IP in new, cooperative and evolutive terms, necessary. The second section examines the various topics and new objectives of a “strategic” IP resumption, particularly relevant to the concerted action on the cost of labour, presently being discussed. The topics we consider are: the link between wage reform and IP; the recent concerted agreements reached on fiscal drag (26.1.89) and on the cost of labour (25.1 and 6.7.90); the importance of the role of productivity gain-sharing; programmed inflation and price control; indexation of gross wages and safeguarding the net wage; increase of the tax base; profit-sharing. The third and final section presents a few observations which further investigate the distribution of productivity gains between sectors and uses: how it is articulated amongst the various bargaining levels (central, sectoral or enterprise). Redistribution amongst sectors is dealt with in terms of “protected” and “unprotected” areas of the economy, showing the need of a concerted regulation at the central level. Sharing between factors and allocations presents a very different case, and is dealt with at sectoral and firm level.     

Productivity,Real Wages and Worker Rights: A Cross-National Comparison

ABSTRACT: High unemployment in Europe has led many economists to recommend labour market deregulation — the removal of obstacles to labour market flexibility. These “obstacles” include union power, employment protection legislation and income security arrangements. We argue that such worker rights promote productivity and real wage growse effects. Policy-makers should be aware of these positive effects on productivity and real wage growth when considering curtailing worker rights in order to reduce unemployment.     

Wage Determination in Post-War Italy

ABSTRACT: A bargaining model is proposed and tested in order to explain the irrelevance of the general labour market conditions to wage settlements in the post-war Italian economy. The model is a “right to manage model”, but the solution cannot be improved, being both on the labour demand curve and on the contract curve. The reason for such an outcome is that both firms and unions have priorities, and distinguish the labour force between insiders and outsiders. Different definitions of insiders are used, but in the postwar Italian economy the employees and ex-employees of the industrial sector appear to be the share of the labour force which have been better protected by both contractual parties.     

Why Do People from Southern Italy Seek Jobs in the Public Sector?

This paper analyses the choice open to a worker seeking a job in the public and private sectors of the labour market. The private sector is identified by a steeper wage profile and by lower job security than the public sector. The reservation wage for the two sectors is calculated in the first part of the paper. The results reveal that the reservation wage for the public sector is higher than that for the private sector. The effect of career prospects, job riskiness and labour demand on optimal time allocation between the search in the two sectors is then analysed. Finally, an empirical analysis is made in order to study Italian workers’ search strategies. It highlights relevant geographical differences which can be interpreted through the theoretical results obtained in the paper.     

Is the Labour Market Adjustment in Poland Surprising?

Abstract. On the basis of the brief review of developments in employment and wages in Poland during the stabilization program in 1990, this paper tries to provide critical comments on the two often expressed opinions: that the fall in employment was surprisingly small compared to the fall in output, and that the tax-based incomes policy played a major role in forcing a huge drop in real earnings. It is argued that the actual proportions of the fall in output and employment were in line with specific features of the “overheated” shortage economy, which existed prior to the stabilization program. Since wages were not a “nominal anchor” for most of 1990, other reasons for the astonishing downward flexibility of real wages are analyzed. It is suggested that during the labour market adjustment, the rational strategy of employees was to accept a large, real wage cut in exchange for keeping their employment. Contrary to widespread opinion, it might also be argued that incomes policy, in a short and medium run, will play a much more important role in containing wage pressure than it has until now.     

Employment and Productivity

Abstract. The paper examines the (potential) effects of new technologies on productivity and job growth. In particular the nature and causes of the “productivity paradox” are firstly dealt with. Even though the leading edge sectors show higher than average productivity growth, since the early 1970s aggregate productivity measures have declined. This paper examines several possible explanations of this phenomenon, concluding that new technologies and the related issue of organisational, institutional and social change provide the most significant explanation. “Replacing a steam engine with one or more electric motors, leaving the power distribution system unchanged, appears to have been the usual juxtaposition of a new technology upon the framework of an old one…Shaft and belt power distribution systems were in place and manufacturers were familiar with their problems. Turning line shafts with motors was an improvement that required modifying only the front end of the system… As long as the electric motors were simply used in place of steam engines to turn long line shafts, the shortcomings of mechanical power distribution systems remained.”     

The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations

This paper argues that, in the presence of intersectoral input–output linkages, microeconomic idiosyncratic shocks may lead to aggregate fluctuations. We show that, as the economy becomes more disaggregated, the rate at which aggregate volatility decays is determined by the structure of the network capturing such linkages. Our main results provide a characterization of this relationship in terms of the importance of different sectors as suppliers to their immediate customers, as well as their role as indirect suppliers to chains of downstream sectors. Such higher‐order interconnections capture the possibility of “cascade effects” whereby productivity shocks to a sector propagate not only to its immediate downstream customers, but also to the rest of the economy. Our results highlight that sizable aggregate volatility is obtained from sectoral idiosyncratic shocks only if there exists significant asymmetry in the roles that sectors play as suppliers to others, and that the “sparseness” of the input–output matrix is unrelated to the nature of aggregate fluctuations.     

Employment Protection and Labour Market Segmentation: the Fiftieth Anniversary of the “Cassa Integrazione Guadagni”

Abstract. This paper analyzes the evolution of the Cassa integrazione guadagni (CIG), according to 7 different theoretical models, which offer a classification for the different cases of application that have developed since its introduction, as well as for the many policy targets pursued by the Public Authorities. Then an assessment of the economic role of CIG is attempted, divided into three separate sections. The first is aimed at evaluating the economic long-term effect on macro performance, where the crucial balance is between a “crowding-out effect” on private investment and a “profit-maintenance effect” by lowering the effective wage rate. The second section approaches the employment consequences of the CIG by examining a second crucial balance: that between the protection granted to the employed and the obstacles raised for the employment of the non-employed (above all, freezing workers' turnover). This issue is tackled too in terms of the insider-outsider theory, showing the possible relevance of CIG in segmenting the labour market and keeping the wage rate dynamics. Finally the paper briefly examines the profound revision of the CIG recently approved by the Italian Parliament, aimed at avoiding excessive costs while enhancing labour mobility.     

Union–Firm Bargaining,Productivity Improvement and Endogenous Growth

This paper presents a growth model with two sectors. In the high‐tech sector, R&D increases productivity and union–firm bargaining determines wages, but in the traditional sector there are neither R&D nor labour unions. The government is able to regulate union bargaining power. The main results are as follows. Because firms try to escape wage increases through the improvement of productivity by R&D, the increase in union bargaining power boosts R&D and growth. It is welfare enhancing to strengthen (weaken) unions when the growth rate is below (above) some critical level. A specific rule is presented for when de‐unionization is socially desirable.     

Wage Premium in the Industrial Sector of the Spanish Economy: Empirical Evidence

Abstract. This paper presents evidence that firm-level productivity increases when the relative wage rises, or the level of unemployment rises. Both facts are consistent with the efficiency wage model. Moreover, there is support for the idea that an increase in the sector's wage with respect to the previous year also increases productivity. We obtain the empirical evidence through a double-hurdle model. We use this estimation technique because it can be established that the differences in productivity between sectors could be explained by differences in effort. It means that some of the industrial sectors of the Spanish economy may pay wage premia while others do not. We also test this implication through panel data.     

The Baumol Gap Revisited. An econometric analysis of the productivity differential between U.K. manufacturing and service firms, 1982–1989

The gap in productivity growth between manufacturing and service sectors is analyzed at company level using a panel of 328 British companies. This paper evaluates differences in the rate of growth of technological progresss (“Baumol gap”) in manufacturing and service companies, taking full account of the impact of changes in market competition, union recognition and financial position of firms. The empirical results suggest: (i) the gap in total factor productivity is significant and negative for distribution, lodging and catering sectors, positive but less significant for transport and communication sectors; (ii) the technological gap is higher than the gap in labour productivity; (iii) the gap can be attributed to technological factors, and it is invariant to the use of firm–level variables that capture effects on workers and managers effort; (iv) the estimate of total factor productivity growth in manufacturing and services is slightly influenced by these variables.     

Job Tenure,Labour Mobility and Wage Profiles

Abstract. The features and the length of the attachment of workers to firms represent a central aspect of the labour relationship. The length of service is an important determinant of wages and of non-pecuniary benefits; it affects internal mobility in the firm, and insulates workers with long job tenure from unemployment. In this paper it is argued that the traditional “spot” labour market Characterization is difficult to reconcile with the existence of long term employment relationships. A number of alternative theories which predict the existence of an employer-worker attachment proposed, and their implications discussed. The relevance of long term employment relationships is then tested using micro-data for the Italian manufacturing industry. An appropriate methodology for the analysis of the duration of employment is developed. and separate “job tenure” equations for white and blue collar workers are estimated. A higher educational attainment - ceteris paribus- appears to increase the probability of a job separation; conversely, a higher working experience, previous to the current job, tends to reduce it. The effect of firm size is negative, as larger organizations seem to favour longer employment spells. Outside opportunities show a strong positive effect on the probability of separation. Finally, conditional on the current wage, the probability of leaving the job increases with the length of time worked. However, when the unconditional outcome is considered, separation decline with tenure; in this case. it is argued, the wage effect more than outweighs the conditional effect. This result is consistent with the predictions of both “specific” human capital and job matching theories.     

Uncertainty,Flexibility Gap and Labour Demand in the Italian Economy

In this paper we analyse the effects of changes in the degree of uncertainty of the economic system and in the “flexibility gap”, deriving from the combined evolution of the degrees of uncertainty and flexibility of the economic system (in particular, labour market flexibility), on regular and irregular labour demand. On the basis of a simple qualitative model, we give a partial interpretation of some stylized facts of the Italian economy during the last decades. We argue that the low uncertainty and flexibility gap in the 1950s and 1960s, their remarkable increases in the 1970s, their inadequate reduction in the 1980s and the new increase of uncertainty and flexibility gap in the first half of the 1990s, have had a considerable influence on the quantity and quality of the “investment in employment” of Italian economy. The higher degree of uncertainty and the inadequate degree of flexibility of the Italian economic system are likely to have contributed towards the lower regular employment rate, compared to the main industrialized countries, and to high irregular employment. An adequate economic policy for reducing the uncertainty of the economic system together with a structural economic policy for increasing the flexibility of the economic system (in particular, an active labour policy for increasing the flexibility of the labour market), would be likely to produce positive effects on the quantity and quality of labour demand, contributing towards reducing unemployment.     

Labour Market and Labour Market Policy in the Eastern Part of Germany: New Approaches and New Links to Structural Policy

ABSTRACT: After unification, East German GNP dropped severely, total employment fell to about two thirds of the former level. Long-term labour market prospects remain poor. From the very beginning up to now, labour market policy (short-time work, early retirement schemes, work creation measures, further training and retraining) absorbed much of the surplus labour supply. Regulations were changed to allow for‘“mega-measures” (contrasting the traditional individual approach). A new co-financing model links work-creation measures more closely to regional structural policy. A labour market infrastructure was built up in a short time, including new elements such as‘“employment promotion companies” and‘“reconstruction agents“.     

Paying More than Necessary? The Wage Cushion in Germany

In Germany, more than 40 per cent of plants covered by collective agreements pay wages above the level stipulated in the agreement, giving rise to a wage cushion between actual and contractual wages. Cross‐sectional and fixed‐effects estimations indicate that the wage cushion mainly varies with the profit situation of the plant and with indicators of labour shortage and the business cycle. Whereas plants bound by multi‐employer agreements seem to pay wage premiums in order to overcome the restrictions imposed by the rather centralized bargaining system in (western) Germany, plants that use single‐employer agreements are significantly less likely to have wage cushions.     

Efficiency Wage,Fixed Employment Costs,and Dual Labour Markets

The standard efficiency wage‐based explanation of labour market dualism hinges on the existence of differences in monitoring across sectors. The paper proposes fixed employment costs as an alternative source of wage differentials for homogeneous workers. It shows that firms with larger fixed costs pay higher wages in order to elicit more effort from their workers, and tend to have higher capital/labour ratio and labour productivity. The model generates both involuntary unemployment and involuntary confinement in the secondary sector: high effort–high wage jobs are preferred to low effort–low wage jobs and either are preferred to unemployment. The proposed framework can also account for the various types of treatment of marginal jobs in primary sector firms envisaged by Doeringer and Piore (Internal Labour Markets and Manpower Analysis, 1971). In particular, an increase in fixed costs beyond a certain level may induce primary sector firms to restructure, segment production, and enter the secondary sector, thus converting their jobs into secondary jobs. From a welfare point of view, we cannot state in general the desirability of subsidizing fixed employment costs; however, we show that an employment subsidy financed by a wage tax is able to increase employment with no loss in terms of production.     

Wage Structure,Incomes Policy and Decentralised Bargaining: the Case of Greece

Abstract. Developments in Greek industrial relations suggest that decentralised bargaining is not a panacea. The manufacturing wage structure in Greece has an exceptional course associated with the rise of informal decentralised bargaining. Interindustry wage differentials increased in a period of incomes policies aiming to narrow the wage structure. The influence exerted by inflation and unemployment is, compared to past evidence from the US. and the U.K., quite unconventional. Under informal bargaining, high-wage powerful industrial branches “benefit” from higher inflation and lower unemployment.     

Labour Policy and Determinants of Employment and Wages in a Developing Economy with Labour Shortage

Using data from a sample of 1,099 workers, this paper investigates the determinants of employment and wages for workers in the United Arab Emirates. The paper further examines the wage distribution and the decomposition of the wage gap between the public and the private sectors. Results of the study are consistent with the dual labour market theory and indicate that the labour market in the United Arab Emirates is segmented based on sectors (public versus private) and types of workers (nationals versus non‐nationals). The study concludes with a discussion of the implication of these findings for the effectiveness of labour and economic policy.     

The Wage Gap in Manufacturing in Germany: Size and Determinants

Wages in Germany are usually fixed in a two-step process. Firstly, unions and employers' associations negotiate wage agreements at industry level. Secondly, the sectoral wage is modified at establishment level according to the demands of management, works councils and individual employees. Since contract wages are minimum standards, the modifications may only favour the employees. A positive wage gap appears. The paper aims to analyse this second step of wage fixing. Data on the size of the wage gap are presented, determinants of the gap are discussed theoretically and, finally, the hypotheses are tested by regression analysis.     

Modelling Wage Growth Dynamics in Italy, 1960-90

ABSTRACT: In this work we analyse the common dynamic properties of wage inflation, price inflation, unemployment and labour productivity using Italian annual data (1960-90, source: Prometeia). Applying multivariate cointegration technique we test for the presence of a wage equation and a price mark-up equation. The preferred identification suggests that it is possible to build up an error correction representation for the wage inflation, in which the rate of acceleration in wages depends on the contemporaneous rate of acceleration in prices and on the adjustment to long-run disequilibrium as represented by a Phillips type relation. This representation is rejected for the price inflation which turns out to be weakly exogenous within the system. Furthermore, there is evidence that wage inflation does not Granger-cause price inflation. The overall conclusion is that wage inflation does not contribute in explaining the price inflation process and the traditional mark-up view of inflation is not supported by data. The policy implication is that monetary policy need not respond to wage data because they do not contain additional information about the future path of inflation.