Overstated Quarterly Earnings and Analysts' Earnings Forecast Revisions*

A primary purpose of accounting is to provide information for decision makers. Accounting misstatements may have a detrimental effect on decision making. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) identifies earnings overstatements as being particularly troublesome to users, as indicated by SEC Accounting and Auditing Enforcement Releases' emphasis on earnings' overstatement errors. This research investigates how security analysts' forecast revisions are affected by accounting earnings overstatement errors, which become known only after the analysts released their revised annual earnings forecasts. The paper investigates the clarifying role that additional information plays in analysts' revisions. The results show that analysts draw significantly different conclusions from earnings containing (unknown) overstatement errors than from accurately reported earnings. In essence, the analysts identify some of the overstatement, at least on average, by making an adjustment that effectively ignores 21 percent of the overstatement error.     

语言多样性、信息获取与分析师盈余预测质量

考察了语言多样性对分析师盈余预测质量的影响,以及这种影响如何因员工教育水平的不同而变化.基于中国上市公司的实证检验结果显示,语言多样性显著降低了分析师盈余预测质量,但是随着公司员工受教育水平提高,语言多样性对分析师盈余预测质量的负面影响有所减弱.进一步研究发现,分析师与CEO间的校友关系增强了员工教育水平对语言多样性与分析师盈余预测准确性之间关系的正向调节作用.研究结论一定程度上丰富了分析师私有信息获取及其影响机理以及社会关系等方面的文献,而且还可帮助投资者、监管者等利益相关方更好地理解分析师行为,促进资源合理配置,增强资本市场的有效性等方面具有一定的启示意义.     

Combining Judgmental and Statistical Forecasts: An Application to Earnings Forecasts

This study investigated the accuracy of combinations of statistical and judgmental forecasts of annual accounting earnings. Combined forecasts were generated as equally weighted (i.e., simple averages) and unequally weighted combinations of individual forecasts from time-series models of quarterly and annual earnings (statistical forecasts) and security analysts' forecasts of quarterly and annual earnings (judgmental forecasts). The effect of the number of individual forecasts combined on the accuracy of the combined forecasts was also examined. The empirical results indicated that, on the average, combined forecasts were more accurate than individual forecasts. The results also indicated that although analysts' forecasts are based on a wider information set, the accuracy of their forecasts could be improved by combining them with forecasts generated from statistical models. Even if the best individual forecast could be identified in advance, gains in accuracy could be achieved by using combinations of two other forecasting methods. Several of the combined forecasts were superior to the most accurate individual forecast. Forecasts combined by using unequal weights derived from a regression model proved more accurate than equally weighted combinations. Forecasting accuracy improved and the variability of accuracy across different combinations decreased as the number of forecasts in the combination increased.     

The impact of related party transactions on earnings management: some insights from the Italian context

Related party transactions have become a key issue as a result of recent financial scandals. This study examines whether firms use related party transactions for earnings management, and then, whether they try to minimize detection through the format of related party transactions disclosure. Firstly, we analyze the association between related party transactions structure (types and parties involved) and the probability of reporting small earnings increase. Related party transactions may have significant impact on, and implications for, earnings management. According to the agency theory, related party transactions are used opportunistically, while the efficient transaction hypothesis argues that related party transactions meet the economic needs of the business. We next investigate the association between the probability of reporting small earnings increases through related party transactions and disclosure quality. Disclosure quality should be studied in relation to impression management and investor attention; this approach takes account of the idea that earnings management behavior may influence the quality of disclosure as a possible way of lowering conflict of interest. In line with the agency theory, our findings show that revenue related party transactions are more likely to be used to manage earnings than other types of transaction; related party transactions with ultimate parents are associated with lower probability of reporting small earnings increases compared to operations with other related parties. Lastly, our results confirm that the decision to engage in earnings management is related to lower disclosure quality.     

股市投资者对盈余公告的反应——基于博彩偏好的视角

本文以中国股市2003年第一季度至2018年第一季度的数据为样本,通过构造三种股票博彩指数和使用事件研究法探究了股市投资者对盈余公告的反应。研究发现,博彩偏好会同时从方向相反的两个方向影响股市投资者对盈余公告的反应,即投资者对博彩型股票的青睐虽然提高了投资者对正未预期盈余信息的敏感性,但却减缓了负未预期盈余信息反映到股价中的速度。这种影响对处于亏损状态的投资者、情绪高涨的投资者或散户投资者更为显著。     

资产减值准备计提与会计盈余价值相关性——基于亏损上市公司的经验数据

采用多元回归分析法对新8项资产减值会计准则实施后,亏损上市公司计提减值准备的会计盈余价值相关性进行了研究;在考虑公司个体特点的基础上,运用堆栈回归法,采用随机效应影响的面板模型对不同年度的会计盈余价值相关性进行了分析。结果表明,从整体上看,亏损上市公司计提减值准备后增强了会计盈余价值相关性,计提的减值准备数据本身也具有增量价值相关性,同时,研究还发现盈利年度的会计信息对投资者的决策更有用,以及投资者不能有效识别微利公司的会计盈余质量,而对于巨亏公司与通过转回减值准备方式盈利的公司来说,其会计盈余数据的决策相关性显著低于对比公司,投资者能有效识别其会计盈余质量,这为2007年1月1日起实施的《企业会计准则第8号——资产减值》中规定的关于已计提的减值准备不可转回的会计准则变革提供了实证支持。     

盈余管理、金融市场化与公司超额银行借款

公司在获取银行信贷的过程中会通过盈余管理以满足会计业绩审核要求的行为已得到学者们的关注, 但现有文献尚未研究公司在获得一定的银行借款后是否会继续进行盈余管理以获得超额银行借款.本文基于该问题, 以2003年～2016年中国A股上市公司为研究对象, 从应计盈余管理和真实盈余管理两个维度, 考察了盈余管理行为与公司超额银行借款之间的关系.研究结果表明, 应计盈余管理和真实盈余管理均与公司超额银行借款正相关;进一步, 在考虑地区金融市场化程度之后, 发现金融市场化弱化了应计盈余管理与公司超额银行借款的正相关关系, 但增强了公司通过真实盈余管理获得更多超额银行借款的行为.本文从公司超额银行借款行为出发, 同时结合金融市场化程度, 拓展了会计信息质量与信贷资源配置的研究视角.     

媒体关注的市场压力效应及其传导机制

以2006年-2011年中国A股上市公司为样本,基于盈余管理的视角,研究了媒体关注度的市场压力效应及其传导机制.实证结果表明,媒体关注度会通过提升个人投资者关注度形成市场压力效应,从而促进应计项目的盈余管理.进一步研究发现,媒体关注度的市场压力作用对非国有企业的影响显著高于对国有企业的影响.同时还从企业并购、大股东减持等角度进一步证实媒体关注度的市场压力效应主要源于公司的短期利益动机.     

分析师社交媒体在信息传播效率中的作用——基于分析师微博的研究

利用分析师开通微博这一现象,探究社交媒体能否有助于提高分析师信息传播效率.主要结果表明:首先,与未开通微博的分析师相比,分析师在开通微博后,其信息传播效率显著提升,而分析师停止在微博发布消息后,提升效应随之消失;其次,分析师微博的关注度越高,信息传播效率越高.进一步发现,信息传播效率的提升效应仅适用于明星分析师和机构投资者持股比例高的公司,说明微博信息的供求双方主要是明星分析师和机构投资者.总之,本研究为探讨分析师社交媒体在资本市场中的作用提供了证据支持.     

Audit committee and internal audit and the quality of earnings: empirical evidence from Spanish companies

Corporate scandals and failures such as Enron, WorldCom, etc. were highly catastrophic and had a terrible effect on stakeholders. The pressure of globalisation and the intense competition have lead to organisations encouraging good corporate governance. Organisations have to promote transparency and accountability of financial information. As Gramling et al. (J Account Lit 23:194–244, 2004) argued there are four important mechanisms of corporate governance include boards of directors, audit committees (among others) and internal and external audit functions. However, this paper will focus on the relationship between two corporate governance mechanisms (audit committee and internal audit function). Thus, our purpose is to analyse the relation between characteristics of the audit committee and internal audit function and earnings management measured as abnormal accruals to test the quality of financial statements. We hypothesise that the association between the effectiveness of the audit committee and the presence of an internal audit function and its relationship with this committee would indicate less opportunity for management to manipulate earnings. Using a sample of 108 non-financial Spanish companies that traded on the Madrid Stock Exchange between 2003 and 2006 (432 observations), we have found that the size and number of meetings of the audit committee had a significant negative association with earnings manipulations. Also, our results suggest that a negative relation between having an internal audit function and earnings management.     

应计信息、机构投资者反应与股票错误定价

利用日内交易数据构建订单流不平衡指标,考察机构投资者对上市公司应计信息的即时反应情况及对股票价格产生的影响.结果表明,机构投资者在公司意外盈余为正的前提下,根据应计利润水平采取反转交易策略,买入(卖出)低(高)应计公司股票;受机构投资者交易行为的影响,低应计(高应计)公司股价在盈余公告后短期内上涨(下跌),在公告后长期则下跌(上涨),股价在整个区间内经历反转;通过构建套利组合研究发现,公司应计对股票盈余公告后长期收益的正向预测能力,不能完全被基于风险的资产定价模型所解释,说明机构投资者的交易行为造成股价过度反应,导致市场对公司应计项目错误定价.     

Fresh in the saddle: The influence of a new CEO's vision and origin,and CEO succession type on market actors' reactions

CEO succession is a critical event in the life of a company. How external stakeholders respond to it, can affect the company's valuation. This study investigates how securities analysts' and investors' reactions to CEO succession are affected by the interplay between the charisma of the new CEO's vision, the new CEO's origin (whether an insider or outsider), and the type of CEO succession (whether routine, dismissal or interim). Drawing on the literature on signaling, we suggest that because a charismatic vision emits a positive signal about the company's future performance, it will affect market actors' reactions by either weakening or strengthening the influence of the signals emitted by other succession context contingencies, namely, CEO origin and succession type. To test our predictions regarding analysts' and investors' reactions, we respectively analyze panel data and conduct an event study. The results support most of our predictions. We discuss the study's contributions and implications.     

政府补贴、成长性和亏损公司定价

本文以Ohlson模型考察2002-2007年A股亏损公司定价问题。针对亏损公司盈余与权益价值负相关这一异常现象,我们通过将政府补贴、成长性、研发支出和负债融资信息引入定价模型,发现政府补贴、成长性和负债因素能够有效改善模型,消除了盈余与权益价值显著负相关的异常现象,改善了定价模型的效果。通过从规模和净利润两个维度对亏损公司的进一步分类,我们发现从净利润维度来看,政府向那些更容易通过非经常项目扭亏的公司提供了更多财政补贴,并且政府补贴与净利润为正公司的权益价值显著负相关,与净利润为负公司的权益价值不存在显著相关关系;从规模维度来看,上述现象在小公司样本更加明显。     

PARENTAL INCOME,LIFETIME INCOME,AND MORTALITY

This article studies the relation between parental economic resources and mortality later in life. We use a data set on a cohort of individuals born in 1928 in the county of Malmö in southern Sweden, which contains exceptionally detailed measures of parental household income from five years during the individuals' childhood between 1929 and 1942. The data also contain very rich information on individual earnings throughout these individuals' entire life cycle that allows us to construct a measure of lifetime earnings. Date and cause of death are obtained from national registers. Using Cox proportional hazard models, we find an inverse relationship between parental income and mortality, also when controlling for individual lifetime income and when studying those with high education separately. A competing risk analysis shows the relation between parental income and mortality to apply to cancer as the cause of death. (JEL: D31, I10, I12, J10)     

机构投资者持股比例与上市公司盈余管理的实证研究

本文分析了机构投资者在完善上市公司治理结构、约束管理层盈余管理中的作用。首先通过管理者与机构投资者的博弈分析发现,当机构持股比例很低时,机构不存在监管意愿,只有当机构持股比例较高时,才会积极地监管盈余管理。其次,以2004-2006年沪深两市的上市公司为样本,通过实证研究发现盈余管理与机构投资者持股之间存在倒U型关系,持股比例13.07%是机构投资者是否有效抑制盈余管理行为的临界值;盈余管理程度与机构股东的数量呈正相关关系,即随着上市公司中机构股东数量的增加,机构的监管效率会下降。     

An economic model for the quality selection problem

The object of an economic model for the quality selection problem is to select the best parameter value for an input quality characteristic (X) so that the quality loss incurred on an output quality characteristic (Y) is minimized. The relation function between Y and X is assumed to be known throughout the article. In the work of Taguchi's experimentations, the selection of best parameter values is solved by two-step optimization when Y is adjustable. In the article, it is further extended to the case where Y is non-adjustable. An economic quality selection model with a general relation function is proposed based on a Taylor-series method for both adjustable and non-adjustable cases. A special case of a quality selection model with a quadratic relation function is also studied. A circuit example provided by Taguchi is presented to illustrate the use of this model.     

我国上市公司CFO薪酬与盈余质量的相关性研究

本文研究了我国上市公司CFO薪酬与盈余质量的相关性.研究发现,随着我国上市公司治理机制的不断完善,上市公司逐步建立起了以盈余为业绩指标的CFO薪酬激励机制.通过文章逐层递进的研究,我们发现我国上市公司CFO薪酬激励契约显著地区别反映了盈余中的非经常性损益和经常性损益,但是却未能有效地区别反映经常性损益中的应计项目和经营性现金流,存在类似"功能锁定"的现象.进一步细分研究样本后,我们发现由于盈余管理上市公司CFO薪酬激励契约对非经常性损益和经常性损益的不合理权重赋值,扭亏上市公司的CFO薪酬激励契约反而刺激了CFO进行盈余管理.根据研究我们认为,解决CFO薪酬激励契约对应计项目和经营性现金流的"功能锁定"现象,改进盈余管理上市公司CFO薪酬激励契约成为目前我国上市公司完善CFO薪酬激励机制的两个重要任务.     

预测信息披露与盈余管理

本文从信息披露的角度出发,通过一个委托-代理模型分析预测信息的披露与盈余管理的关系。我们的分析认为,由于我国上市公司管理层披露的预测信息在一定程度上减少了管理层与投资者间的信息不对称程度,且管理层故意错误地披露预测信息需要承担额外的成本。因此,在一定的条件下,管理层披露预测信息将有利于减少管理层盈余管理行为。相关的实证研究数据也证实了我们的结论。     

天使还是魔鬼?——分析师媒体荐股的市场效应

利用证券分析师在《中国证券报》、《上海证券报》、《证券时报》上发布的荐股信息,研究分析师媒体荐股的市场反应、效率及其对财富流动的影响.结果表明:1)媒体荐股信息对市场,特别是对个人投资者的行为产生了强烈影响;2)媒体荐股信息公布后,被推荐股票存在显著为负的超额收益,这一现象在下跌行情时表现尤为突出;3)媒体荐股信息影响了市场财富的流动,个人投资者依赖于荐股信息的买入行为给他们带来了显著损失.研究结果一方面说明媒体发布的荐股信息质量低下;另一方面也证实媒体荐股行为中存在内幕交易和利益输送的现象,直接导致个人投资者的财富流向机构投资者.