A LOGIT-MARKOVIAN MODEL OF CONSUMER PURCHASE BEHAVIOR BASED ON EXPLANATORY VARIABLES: EMPIRICAL EVALUATION AND IMPLICATIONS FOR DECISION MAKING*

This study describes and empirically evaluates an approach to modeling purchase behavior that integrates a Logit-Markov-based multivariate brand-choice model structure with stochastic components. Using actual market data for a frequently purchased consumer product obtained from a consumer purchase panel survey, the paper highlights some marketing applications of the model. Given its general structure, the model can aid marketing managers in defining and evaluating target market segments and in assessing the impact of alternative marketing strategies.     

利益细分变量研究与消费者市场细分

在当今激烈的市场竞争环境中,市场细分理论对企业市场营销活动的指导作用已为越来越多的企业所认同,并引起市场营销研究人员的关注。本文从市场细分变量入手,通过对市场细分变量的四大类型和消费者市场细分组合的多样性进行分析,并以针对国内牙膏市场上主要品牌所进行的利益细分调研为例,论述了进行利益细分研究对市场营销的指导意义。     

Identifying the Coarse and Fine Structures of Market Segments

Numerical taxonomy methods have been used to represent marketing data in one of four ways: as discrete groups, dendograms, overlapping groups, or fuzzy classification schemes. This paper introduces a fifth representation—a nested relationship between groups at two (or more) discontinuous levels of aggregation. In the context of a market segmentation application, we call these groups the coarse and fine structures of the market. This paper discusses why this fifth representation is needed and how it differs from existing approaches. The method is illustrated by using it to recover the coarse/fine structures of artificial and actual survey data. The results obtained with the survey data demonstrate the theoretical and practical power of the proposed approach, which provides useful insight into certain marketing decisions. Steps to further validate and extend this new approach to market segmentation are outlined.     

Bewertung intertemporaler Abh?ngigkeiten zwischen IT-Projekten

Companies often decide in favour of IT investments (especially IT infrastructure investments) only because these investments build the foundation for more lucrative follow-up investments. Those intertemporal interdependencies among IT projects have to be considered within the scope of a value-based IT portfolio management. Therefore, current literature suggests the use of real options analysis??and therefore the application of option pricing models such as the binomial model or the Black-Scholes model. Both models require a complete market. However, because IT projects are characterized by project specific risks, which cannot be duplicated on a capital market, the forthright application of these models is problematic. This issue has been addressed within the scope of the discrete binomial model so far. In this paper we transfer these findings to the Black-Scholes model. Furthermore, we apply this approach to a real case and illustrate how a correct consideration of project specific risks using the Black-Scholes model can affect investment decisions.     

Market segmentation: A multiple criteria approach combining preference analysis and segmentation decision

We propose a new multiple criteria decision aiding approach for market segmentation that integrates preference analysis and segmentation decision within a unified framework. The approach employs an additive value function as the preference model and requires consumers to provide pairwise comparisons of some products as the preference information. To analyze each consumer’s preferences, the approach applies the disaggregation paradigm and the stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis to derive a set of value functions according to the preference information provided by each consumer. Then, each consumer’s preferences can be represented by the distribution of possible rankings of products and associated support degrees by applying the derived value functions. On the basis of preference analysis, a new metric is proposed to measure the similarity between preferences of different consumers, and a hierarchical clustering algorithm is developed to perform market segmentation. To help firms serve consumers from different segments with targeted marketing policies and appropriate products, the approach proposes to work out a representative value function and the univocal ranking of products for each consumer so that products that rank in the front of the list can be presented to her/him. Finally, an illustrative example of a market segmentation problem details the application of the proposed approach.     

Neural Network Earnings per Share Forecasting Models: A Comparative Analysis of Alternative Methods

In this paper, we present a comparative analysis of the forecasting accuracy of univariate and multivariate linear models that incorporate fundamental accounting variables (i.e., inventory, accounts receivable, and so on) with the forecast accuracy of neural network models. Unique to this study is the focus of our comparison on the multivariate models to examine whether the neural network models incorporating the fundamental accounting variables can generate more accurate forecasts of future earnings than the models assuming a linear combination of these same variables. We investigate four types of models: univariate‐linear, multivariate‐linear, univariate‐neural network, and multivariate‐neural network using a sample of 283 firms spanning 41 industries. This study shows that the application of the neural network approach incorporating fundamental accounting variables results in forecasts that are more accurate than linear forecasting models. The results also reveal limitations of the forecasting capacity of investors in the security market when compared to neural network models.     

Marketing Is from Mars,IT Is from Venus: Aligning the Worldviews for Firm Performance

A typical firm is operated by multiple functional managers who may collaborate as well as compete to achieve firm performance. In the digital age, firm performance is essentially customer‐dependent and technology‐dependent, with both marketing and information technology (IT) playing key roles. Unfortunately the two functions often have very different worldviews. We show how these differences can damage firm performance, and suggest ways to mitigate this damage. We build a worldview difference model, synthesized from multiple disciplines. The model is tested using both matched and nonmatched observations from marketing and IT managers, and is analyzed with hierarchical linear models using both perceptual and objective firm performance data over a 4‐year period. We find that differences between the beliefs and perceptions of marketing managers and IT managers generate a negative impact on firm performance, and suggest appropriate technology‐culture associations to effectively align their worldviews for firm performance. To improve firm performance, a cross‐functional appreciation for market and technology drivers can be achieved by making marketing managers more learning‐oriented and by providing IT managers a culture that is congruent with technology.     

Linking CIO–CMO Communication and Product Innovation via Virtual Customer Environment Engagement: A Moderated Mediation Study

Intuitively, we would expect that CIO–CMO communication plays a minimal role in product innovation performance, because product innovation is primarily driven by firms’ market orientation, knowledge of customer needs and cross-functional integration among marketing, R&D and operations management. In a sharp contrast to this perspective, we propose that CIO–CMO communication increases product innovation performance through enhancing virtual customer environment (VCE) engagement. Such proposed effects are supported by two studies with different samples (i.e. MBA alumni in Study 1 and a representative sample in Study 2) and different performance measures (i.e. subjective ratings in Study 1 and objective sales data in Study 2). Furthermore, the effect of CIO–CMO communication on product innovation performance via VCE engagement is contingent upon two situational factors, namely marketing–IT integration policy and market uncertainty. The effect of CIO–CMO communication on product innovation performance via VCE engagement is positive and significant when marketing–IT integration policy is strong or when market uncertainty is high, but not when marketing–IT integration policy is weak or when market uncertainty is low. Theoretical contributions and managerial implications of these findings are discussed, especially on how managers can capitalize on CIO–CMO communication and VCE engagement to enhance the success of new product innovation.     

A Comprehensive Model for Measuring the Potential Impact of Information Technology on Organizational Strategic Variables*

The existing literature on the impact of information technology (IT) does not include rigorous theory building or empirical studies. This research seems to be the first comprehensive investigation towards the development of an empirically validated comprehensive model for understanding the potential impact of IT on organizational strategic variables. More specifically, organizational and industrial variables that appeared to be affected by IT are identified, measured, and operationalized in the form of a comprehensive model. This study is based on structured interviews with a carefully selected sample of 31 strategic managers who had experience using IT for strategic decisions. In addition, the variables included in the model are well grounded in the information systems literature. The variables are then empirically validated and their reliabilities critically tested. A comprehensive model is derived from these validated variables. The model is a first step towards measuring the overall potential impact of IT on an organization. The model can also be used to gauge IT's potential impact on individual strategic variables. A set of hypotheses is also presented for future research. The hypotheses primarily relate to the impact of IT on organizational strategic performance. The model provides an empirically validated foundation for testing of such hypotheses.     

A Critical Review of Research in Marketing

An historical review of research in three major sub-fields within marketing: market structure and segmentation, market networks and interfirm relationships, and market orientation and the implementation of the marketing concept, suggests that there remain a number of key issues in terms of significance and interpretation. It is noteworthy that these issues, which have important strategic and managerial implications have not, in general, been reflected in the content of key marketing textbooks. A number of more general issues can be derived which are relevant not only to future research in the marketing arena but also the wider context of strategy research.     

对绿色消费者生活方式特征的研究

绿色消费热的兴起使得国外众多学者开始关注绿色营销,尤其是上世纪90年代的前半期,众多文献对绿色营销涉及的各方面进行深入了研究。国外许多研究证明人口统计特征难以作为绿色消费者的市场细分变量。本文试图从生活方式方面进行探索,以获得对中国绿色消费者的一些认识,帮助中国营销者更好地进行绿色营销沟通。本文首先对有关绿色营销、绿色消费者和生活方式等的文献进行回顾,然后介绍了研究方法和数据分析,最后对结论及其意义和研究局限进行讨论。     

Dual Objective Segmentation to Improve Targetability: An Evolutionary Algorithm Approach**

Cluster‐based segmentation usually involves two sets of variables: (i) the needs‐based variables (referred to as the bases variables), which are used in developing the original segments to identify the value, and (ii) the classification or background variables, which are used to profile or target the customers. The managers’ goal is to utilize these two sets of variables in the most efficient manner. Pragmatic managerial interests recognize the underlying need to start shifting from methodologies that obtain highly precise value‐based segments but may be of limited practical use as they provide less targetable segments. Consequently, the imperative is to shift toward newer segmentation approaches that provide greater focus on targetable segments while maintaining homogeneity. This requires dual objective segmentation, which is a combinatorially difficult problem. Hence, we propose and examine a new evolutionary methodology based on genetic algorithms to address this problem. We show, based on a large‐scale Monte Carlo simulation and a case study, that the proposed approach consistently outperforms the existing methods for a wide variety of problem instances. We are able to obtain statistically significant and managerially important improvements in targetability with little diminution in the identifiability of value‐based segments. Moreover, the proposed methodology provides a set of good solutions, unlike existing methodologies that provide a single solution. We also show how these good solutions can be used to plot an efficient Pareto frontier. Finally, we present useful insights that would help managers in implementing the proposed solution approach effectively.     

Segmenting the commercial producer marketplace for agricultural inputs

A cluster analysis procedure was used to develop a market segmentation of U.S. crop and livestock farms with annual sales in excess of $100,000. The segments were developed based on the importance of six factors that producers evaluate when selecting input suppliers. The results indicate that four distinct segments exist: Convenience buyers, Balance buyers, Price buyers, and Performance buyers. Differences in preferences across these segments have important implications for the marketing strategies of agricultural input suppliers.     

Multiple Conceptualizations of Small Business Web Use and Benefit*

Small businesses play an important role in the U.S. economy and there is anecdotal evidence that use of the Web is beneficial to such businesses. There is, however, little systematic analysis of the conditions that lead to successful use of and thereby benefits from the Web for small businesses. Based on the innovation adoption, organizations, and information systems (IS) implementation literature, we identify a set of variables that are related to adoption, use, and benefits of information technology (IT), with particular emphasis on small businesses. These variables are reflective of an organization's contextual characteristics, its IT infrastructure, Web use, and Web benefits. Since the extant research does not suggest a single theoretical model for Web use and benefits in the context of small businesses, we adopt a modeling approach and explore the relationships between “context‐IT‐use‐benefit” (CIUB) through three models—partial‐mediator, reduced partial‐mediator, and mediator. These models posit that the extent of Web use by small businesses and the associated benefits are driven by organizations’ contextual characteristics and their IT infrastructure. They differ in the endogeneity/exogeneity of the extent of IT sophistication, and in the direct/mediated effects of organizational context. We examine whether the relationships between variables identified in the literature hold within the context of these models using two samples of small businesses with national coverage, including various sizes, and representing several industry sectors. The results show that the evidence for patterns of relationships is similar across the two independent samples for two of these models. We highlight the relationships within the reduced partial‐mediator and mediator models for which conclusive evidence are given by both samples. Implications for small business managers and providers of Web‐based technologies are discussed.     

The Alignment between Organizational Critical Success Factors and Information Technology Capability in Academic Institutions*

Alignment between organizational critical success factors (CSFs) and competencies is widely believed to improve performance. This study examines the performance implications of alignment between CSFs and one source of competence, the organization's information technology (IT) capability. The effects of three antecedent factors–environmental uncertainty, integration, and IT management sophistication–are also examined. This paper uses survey data from 244 large academic institutions, along with some secondary data. Following the profile deviation approach to measure alignment, the academic institutions are divided into three clusters based on their CSFs: the academic comprehensives, the reputed giants, and the small educators. The ideal profile of IT capability is next developed for each cluster in terms of four dimensions: information retrieval, electronic communication, computing facilities for students, and computer-aided education. Alignment is then computed for each institution as the proximity of its IT capability profile from the ideal IT capability profile for the cluster to which it belongs. The results suggest that alignment facilitates both perceived IT success and organizational performance. Moreover, sophisticated IT management facilitates both alignment and perceived IT success, environmental uncertainty facilitates perceived IT success but not alignment, and integration facilitates neither alignment nor perceived IT success.     

Market segmentation: an integrated framework

Contrary to the narrow, demand-oriented approach to market segmentation taken in much of the marketing and planning literature, this article illustrates a broader, integrated framework which includes both the demand and supply sides of the competitive equation. The author argues that starting with ‘product’ characteristics is both an easier and more actionable way of segmenting markets than the traditional marketing approach that typically begins with the customer or ‘people’ characteristics. This approach can be employed by a business to make decisions about entering a market segment, differentiating a brand from its competition, positioning it in the market and communicating its quality to the customers. Customers, too, generally rely on product characteristics to perceive and evaluate the quality claims made by different competitors. Thus, the article bridges an important gap between strategy formulation and strategy implementation: an area often neglected in the strategy literature. The proposed approach focuses not only on customer benefits or needs, but also on the resources necessary to satisfy them and demonstrates this with examples from Apple, Church & Dwight and many other companies. To show a practical application, the article presents a price-quality-benefit segmentation profile of the US toothpaste market which revealed three strategic groups.     

An Exploratory Analysis of the Value of the Skills of IT Personnel: Their Relationship to IS Infrastructure and Competitive Advantage

Determining and assessing the requisite skills of information technology (IT) personnel have become critical as the value of IT has risen in modern organizations. In addition to technical skills traditionally expected of IT personnel, softer skills like managerial, business, and interpersonal skills have been increasingly cited in previous studies as mandatory for these employees. This paper uses a typology of IT personnel skills—technology management skills, business functional skills, interpersonal skills, and technical skills—and investigates their relationships to two information systems (IS) success variables, IS infrastructure flexibility and the competitive advantage provided by IS. The study investigates these relationships using the perceptions of chief information officers (CIOs) from mostly Fortune 2000 companies. The contributions of this study are: IT personnel skills do affect IS success, technical skills are viewed as the most important skill set in affecting IS infrastructure flexibility and competitive advantage, and modularity is viewed as more valuable to competitive advantage than integration. Several explanations are offered for the lack of positive relationships between the softer IT personnel skills and the dimensions of IS success used in this study.     

Labour Market Segmentation in Central Europe during the First Years of Transition

The labour markets of the centrally planned economies of Central Europe (the former Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Poland) were divided into several segments. Using estimates taken from a two–regime model, we show that segmentation has persisted throughout the first years of systemic change. However, labour market segmentation has evolved to some extent. Firms that used to have priority now coexist alongside new activities within the primary segment (in particular, foreign firms and activities in the banking and financial sector). In this way, labour market segmentation results both in the appearance of new, formal institutions and the persistence of informal institutions left over from the past, owing to the growth in market uncertainty.     

Power Outage Estimation for Tropical Cyclones: Improved Accuracy with Simpler Models

In this article, we discuss an outage‐forecasting model that we have developed. This model uses very few input variables to estimate hurricane‐induced outages prior to landfall with great predictive accuracy. We also show the results for a series of simpler models that use only publicly available data and can still estimate outages with reasonable accuracy. The intended users of these models are emergency response planners within power utilities and related government agencies. We developed our models based on the method of random forest, using data from a power distribution system serving two states in the Gulf Coast region of the United States. We also show that estimates of system reliability based on wind speed alone are not sufficient for adequately capturing the reliability of system components. We demonstrate that a multivariate approach can produce more accurate power outage predictions.     

SMC模型在IT分销业的实证研究

SMC模型是1987年提出的、用于预测客户交易行为的一组理论方法。由于数据收集难以及模型复杂,还鲜见该模型的实证分析和决策支持。本文首次以我国IT分销业为行业背景,选取该行业最大的一级分销商—神州数码公司—进行分析,验证了该模型的有效性,并讨论该模型在企业实际决策中的应用。同时,针对不同客户类型提出SMC模型的修正思路。