The evaluation and selection of adequate causal models: a compensatory education example

Procedures for ascertaining relative model adequacy in latent variable structural relations models are discussed. Under diverse methods of estimation, this determination may be assessed using the chi square goodness of fit statistic, incremental fit indices for covariance structure models, and latent variable coefficients of determination. An example from evaluation research is taken (cf. Magidson, 1977; Bentler & Woodward, 1978). Numerical sensitivity of parameter estimates under alternative model specifications is demonstrated. Interpretive implications based on these procedures are discussed in terms of parameter sensitivity to alternative model specifications.     

A behavioral model of the demand for consumer durables

It is argued that models of the demand for consumer durables would be strengthened by the introduction of a behavioral element reflecting the nature of the decision making process within the individual household. A possible behavioural model is described. It is suggested that this would consist of the following elements: general economic confidence of the consumer (derived from personal expectations and attitudes to the general economic situation): general durable purchasing orientation (including willingness to devote resources to durable purchasesand house moving expectations); specific product choice considerations (including orders of acquisition of new durables: the implicit depreciation of existing equipment; perceptions of the characteristics of new products; purchase expectations). Such a model is more extensive than that normally described by others working in this field. The interaction between the different variables is discussed. It is shown that all these elements can be estimated through regular surveys and so the model can be made operational for forecasting purposes. However, it needs to be recognised that there are also unexpected even as which will affect the outcome in individual circumstances and the nature of these is also considered.     

The evaluation and monitoring of a Medicaid second surgical opinion program.

The evaluation of newly implemented and controversial programs often present real problems for the evaluator. When a program is accompanied by a legislatively mandated evaluation, the issues become even more acute. The evaluator, wanting to impact on policy, must strike a balance between the adherence to principles of scientific inquiry, yet be responsive to the needs of policymakers. This paper describes the evaluation and follow-up monitoring of a recently established second opinion program for Medicaid recipients. The program was to terminate in 17 months unless extended by the Wisconsin Legislature. The evaluation found, among other things, marked reductions in the use of surgical services after implementation of the second opinion program. Based in large part on the evaluation, the program was extended with a provision for continued monitoring. The paper discusses the factors that contributed to the evaluation having a major impact on the decision to extend the program.     

Informant accuracy in social network data IV: a comparison of clique-level structure in behavioral and cognitive network data

This paper examines whether clique-structure in cognitive data (i.e. recall of who one talks to) may be used as a proxy for clique-structure in behavioral data (i.e. who one actually talks to). The answer to this question is crucial to much of sociometric and social net-theoretic studies of social structure.We analysed the clique structures of the communication patterns of four naturally occurring groups of sizes 34 to 58, whose actual communications could easily be monitored, together with the groups' perceptions of their communications. The groups used were: radio hams, a college fraternity, a group of office workers, and an academic department. The analysis used clique-finding, block-modelling, and factor-analytic techniques, all employed in such a way as to maximize the accuracy of the cognitive data.After defining a way to compare clique structures between behavioral and cognitive data, we found that there was no useful relationship between the two, and furthermore there was no significant difference in performance between any of the structure-finding algorithms.We conclude that cognitive data may not be used for drawing any conclusions about behavioral social structure.     

Dealing with unknown variables in policy/program evaluation

A leading objection to the feasibility of applying benefit-cost analysis in evaluation is that one often cannot know the benefits, the costs, or the probabilities of their occurring for a given proposal. Threshold analysis involves handling unknown variables by converting relevant evaluation problems into questions as to whether a given benefit, cost, probability, or combination of these elements is more or less than a threshold. Above the threshold, the proposed program would be relatively profitable; and below the threshold, it would be relatively unprofitable. Applying that analysis may require the drawing of simple graphs to stimulate the minds of knowledgeable persons as to the range of the actual benefits, costs or probabilities. The approach can be applied when the benefits or the costs are either monetary or nonmonetary, and when the problems involve either go/no-go decisions or conflicting-choice decisions.     

Professionals' attitudes towards men in early childhood education: A national study

A national sample of women and men working in early childhood education was drawn from the membership of the National Association for the Education of Young Children in order to assess their attitudes toward the suitability, professional practice, and administrative capabilities of men in early childhood education. Men and women were found to hold similar views toward the capabilities and roles of male preschool teachers across all these areas. The general lack of polarity of attitudes between men and women on many popularlyheld beliefs about men in the early childhood field is discussed in relation to previous alleged stereotyped attitudes toward male preschool teachers.     

The development and field testing of a vocational education evaluation model

Reported is the development and field testing of an evaluation model used to evaluate the vocational education programs at the Metropolitan Community Colleges (MCC) of Kansas City, Missouri which can be implemented on vocational programs at other institutions. The model evaluated a vocational program on the following six criteria: (1) program's relationship to job market profile; (2) program's level of community support; (3) program's success in meeting vocational aspirations of clientele; (4) program's success in terms of student performance; (5) program 's cost-effectiveness; and (6) program 's success in reaching the handicapped and disadvantaged. The evaluation model provides a strategy and a set of procedures for assessing the quality of existing vocational education programs of study at any post-secondary institution. The model can be easily and inexpensively implemented, thus providing a data base which is useful for administrative planning and decision making.     

Pre- and post-planned evaluation: Which is preferable?

This paper compares the advantages and disadvantages of the “pre-planned” and “post-planned” approaches to evaluating program effectiveness. These evaluative approaches are compared along a number of dimensions which include: (a) Reliability of data and the cost of collecting it; (b) Internal validity; (c) External validity; (d) Evaluation obtrusiveness and threat; and (e) Program goal displacement and program direction. A model designed to help program managers decide when and under what conditions either of these two evaluative approaches should be employed is presented. One major theme throughout this discussion is that despite the growing interest in and use of pre-planned evaluation, the post-planned method has many advantages which often go unnoticed. This paper will help program administrators, planners and evaluators in selecting and implementing these two methods in light of their respective strengths and limitations.     

The optimal treatment approach to needs assessment

This paper describes a needs assessment technique which has not been considered in previous discussions. Basically the Optimal Treatment approach to needs assessment consists of comparing the most desirable set of services for a client with the services actually recommended or received. Discrepancies due to unavailable resources are noted and aggregated across clients. Systematic shortcomings may be taken to represent service needs.The advantages and disadvantages of this and other procedures are considered, especially with respect to political factors and the utility of data for planning and decision making in the local agency context.     

The client satisfaction questionnaire. Psychometric properties and correlations with service utilization and psychotherapy outcome

An 18-item version of the Client Satisfaction Questionnaire (CSQ-18) was included in an experimental study of the effects of pretherapy orientation on psychotherapy outcome. The psychometric properties of the CSQ-18 in this study were compared with earlier findings. In addition, the correlations of the CSQ-18 with service utilization and psychotherapy outcome measures were examined. Results indicated that the CSQ-18 had high internal consistency (coefficient alpha = .91) and was substantially correlated with remainer-terminator status (rs = .61) and with number of therapy sessions attended in one month (r = .54). The CSQ-18 was also correlated with change in client-reported symptoms (r = -.35), indicating that greater satisfaction was associated with greater symptom reduction. Results also demonstrated that a subset of items from the scale (the CSQ-8) performed as well as the CSQ-18 and often better. The excellent performance of the CSQ-8, coupled with its brevity, suggests that it may be especially useful as a brief global measure of client satisfaction.     

Measuring corporate social performance: The problem of values

Debates over the social performance of corporations have carried with them implicit evaluations of that performance. The apparent subjectivity and bias of these informal evaluations has led to the development of more formalized corporate social performance assessment methodologies — social audits. In this paper it is argued that these social audits are also influenced by subjectivity and bias considerations; and thru the case study of a social audit of a corporate safety program, the underlying value issues at the core of these influences are explored. The value implications of the various social audit methodologies in use are discussed; and several value sensitive stages/elements of social audit research and evaluation research in general are identified. Recommendations set forth for minimizing the negative consequences of value-influenced evaluations are a value-explicit evaluation approach, greater standardization of evaluation procedures, a dialectic evaluation approach, and better informed evaluation consumers.     

在稳中求进中蓄积上海科技发展后劲——2012年上海科技创新述评与2013年展望

2012年,上海科技产出稳步增加、企业创新能力加快提升、科技产业发展提速、创新资源加速集聚、创新环境持续优化、科技创新综合实力逐步增强,为创新驱动转型发展积蓄了新动力。2013年,上海发展所面临的国际、国内环境都将更趋复杂,形势将更加严峻,上海科技发展必须深入研究新情况、顺应新形势、融入新格局、把握新机遇、迎接新挑战,在积极推动城市转型发展中实现新提升。