Data bases for large energy-economic models

The collection, collation and transformation of data into the form required by a large energy-economic model constitutes a significant part of the overall modelling activity. The correct basis for setting up a model data base rests on the separation of the model specification into the four areas of external data transformation, internal data representation, internal data transformation and the mathematical relationships. From this specification, the model may be generated. The internal data base is comprised of a series of tables, covering intersectoral transactions, capital stock transactions, energy sector operating characteristics, consumption patterns and other data. These tables may be compiled direct from source material, or via some research requiring prior data processing. In both cases the process should be fully documented, so that data accuracy is ensured and the data may be updated reliably when new material becomes available. It is recommended that a data coordinating function be established within the modelling group, in order to plan and control data-related activities.     

Application of TQM Principles in the International Technology Transfer Process of Industrial Production Plants: A Conceptual Framework

This paper attempts to illustrate the application of the principles in Total Quality Management (TQM) to the International Technology Transfer (ITT) processes used in industrial production plants. Disaggregated analysis of the ‘technology transformation’ process is deployed to highlight the application of TQM. AT&T's ‘customer–supplier’ model of quality is introduced to explain the interactive roles of the parties involved. It argues that the existing literature deals inadequately with the issues raised and discussed in this paper. A conceptual ITT-TQM model is proposed. Such a model should ensure proper assimilation of imported technology and permit continuous improvement of the processes leading to the customer satisfaction. It is suggested that the success of the model depends on the ‘win-win-win’ strategies of the supplier, the process owner and the customer. Examples from various sources are presented to reinforce the argument. In addition, international standards such as the ISO 9000 standard and frameworks for TQM such as the US Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award and the European Quality Award (European Foundation for Quality Management) are posited as necessary to ensure quality technology transfer.     

考虑公众参与环境行为的公共健康两方博弈演化模型研究

公众参与环境行为是深化生态文明改革的重要组成部分,对化石能源消费排放引发的公共健康水平有着不可忽视的影响。将“公众参与”作为博弈模型的主要策略参数,“政府”与企业设为公共健康影响主要主体。运用演化博弈构建了公共健康影响主体交互机制博弈模型,基于复制动态方程原理与问卷调查数值仿真方法,详尽分析了公共健康主体各相关要素交互演化路径的变化快慢。研究结果表明：模型有{监管,不转型},{监管,转型}两个演化稳定策略。公众参与环境治理程度以及公众自身健康关心度对企业能源转型和政府监管演化路径有显著正向影响,同时与“政府”和企业自身特征相关;公共健康损失赔偿大小是政府监管与企业实行能源转型的重要因素;政府监管知识掌握程度、能源政策执行力、企业能源转型成本大小及额外收益极大影响公共健康主体演化路径;学习型“政府”的监管更能有效加快企业能源转型。同时发现,只有各主体参数共同改变,其中公众参与环境行为群体达90%以上时,公共健康损失才会显著下降;单一主体不能有效作用于公共健康水平;目前,{政府不监管,实行能源转型}这一最理想演化博弈策略在我国国情下还未出现。本文为激发公众参与环境行为、助推企业能源转型与提升公共健康政策的制定提供了新的视角。     

The Cultural Dimension of Metagovernance: Why Governance Doctrines May Fail

National cultures often reflect a preference for one of the ideal-types hierarchical, network or market governance. A comparison of four similar policy cases in the UK, the Netherlands, Germany and the European Commission reveals that successful public managers under certain conditions are able to construct and design productive mixtures of the three styles. They applied metagovernance, a process of designing and managing situationally optimal combinations of the three competing, and to an extent mutually undermining, governance styles. Their national cultures and politico-administrative traditions co-determined the governance mixture which would work in a given situation. The research reinforces the case already made by others, that governance doctrines cannot be transferred as ‘best practices’ from one nation to another without adaptation. The article suggests that the future does not lie in inventing new management and governance doctrines, but in investing in post-dogmatic public management.     

基于SOAR模型的网民群体负面情感建模研究

面向网络舆情演变过程中政府应急响应需求,本文基于SOAR （State,Operator and Result）模型,将网民作为智能体Agent,将网络舆情中网民群体行为转变过程看作相应舆情问题空间中状态随时间的连续转换过程,设计突发事件中网民群体负面情感SOAR Agent模型,包括网民Agent的工作记忆、长期记忆、决策过程、学习机制,构建网民群体行为转换规则库和相应算法。在此基础上,设计仿真实验,结合典型网络舆情事件案例,对政府不同应急措施下微博用户群体行为演变过程进行建模。实证结果表明,基于网民群体负面情感的建模,可以分析和预测在不同网络舆情阶段、不同政府应急响应措施下网民群体的行为决策规律。     

A Novel Human Error Probability Assessment Using Fuzzy Modeling

Human error is one of the significant factors contributing to accidents. Traditional human error probability (HEP) studies based on fuzzy number concepts are one of the contributions addressing such a problem. It is particularly useful under circumstances where the lack of data exists. However, the degree of the discriminability of such studies may be questioned when applied under circumstances where experts have adequate information and specific values can be determined in the abscissa of the membership function of linguistic terms, that is, the fuzzy data of each scenario considered are close to each other. In this article, a novel HEP assessment aimed at solving such a difficulty is proposed. Under the framework, the fuzzy data are equipped with linguistic terms and membership values. By establishing a rule base for data combination, followed by the defuzzification and HEP transformation processes, the HEP results can be acquired. The methodology is first examined using a test case consisting of three different scenarios of which the fuzzy data are close to each other. The results generated are compared with the outcomes produced from the traditional fuzzy HEP studies using the same test case. It is concluded that the methodology proposed in this study has a higher degree of the discriminability and is capable of providing more reasonable results. Furthermore, in situations where the lack of data exists, the proposed approach is also capable of providing the range of the HEP results based on different risk viewpoints arbitrarily established as illustrated using a real‐world example.     

Closed-loop supply chain configuration for new and reconditioned products: An integrated optimization model

Closed-Loop Supply Chain Management (CLSCM) is considered as a strategic response to the call for corporate sustainability while further expanding the scope of value creation to include product reconstruction. The Closed-Loop Supply Chain (CLSC) performance is directly related to the CLSC network design. The CLSC network design, with long-term and strategic connotations, involves selection of an integrated network of partner organizations to be engaged on one hand in the forward supply chain processes relevant to families of existing and new products and also involved in reverse supply chain activities relevant to reconstruction of the returned products. At the tactical level, Closed-Loop Supply Chain Configuration (CLSCC) attempts to address issues pertinent to launch of a new product and its reconstruction. The CLSC network design is well studied in the current literature, but addressing the CLSCC is neglected. To study the CLSCC problem we: (a) develop an integrated optimization model for problem; (b) present a real-world case study of a battery manufacturer; (c) based on the case study, we conduct a comprehensive set of computational experiments followed by a series of what-if analyses to compare profitability of the Forward Supply Chain Configuration (FSCC) versus the CLSCC; and (c) discuss the key observations and managerial implications drawn from the computational experiments, applicable to other real-world instances. The significant outcomes of the study suggest that: (i) performance of the firm׳s base case integrated CLSCC model is significantly better than the current supply chain model (ii) the sales-price ratio of new battery is found to be negatively related with the maximum acquiring price of used batteries; (iii) combination of sales price ratios of new and reconditioned batteries determines the total net profit for a given return rate. Finally, important managerial insights and scope for future research are discussed.     

企业数字化转型的同群效应及其影响因素研究

以2008~2019年中国A股制造业上市公司数据为基础,通过分析师跟踪网络识别同群群体,并利用面板固定效应模型等方法,考察企业数字化转型中的同群效应以及这种企业间行为互动的影响因素。研究发现:企业数字化转型过程中存在显著的同群效应;受模仿学习的主观动机与现实条件两方面因素共同影响,数字化转型的同群效应在资源基础和动态能力处于中间水平的企业中更为显著;网络嵌入、市场竞争以及环境不确定性均会强化企业数字化转型的同群效应;同群效应引发了群体成员数字化转型水平的向上趋同。     

The True Cost of Precautionary Chemicals Regulation

This article explores the possible social costs of introducing an overly precautionary regulatory regime for chemicals It begins by examining research by the UK Medical Research Council Institute for Environment and Health (MRC-IEH), which suggests that the resource implications of the proposals contained in the European Commission White Paper "Strategy for a Future Chemicals Policy" are unrealistic and even unrealizable. The article then focuses on contemporary debates pertaining to endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) and goes on to question whether a "right to know" is always necessarily a good thing, or whether in certain instances it can lead to a society that feels more sorry than safe. Finally, problems relating to the representation and inclusion of public values in decision-making processes are raised prior to concluding with a call for an ambitious orientation toward social change rather than a self-limiting obsession with safety.     

Hierarchical network systems: An application to high-technology industry in China

In real world situations, there is a hierarchical structure exists in a specific organization and each component has its network process. However, such hierarchical network system has not been well studied in previous literature, and misleading results often are produced. The current paper discusses a data envelopment analysis (DEA) modelling technique for a network structure where a hierarchical system consists of components having two-stage series processes. An additive network DEA is proposed to evaluate the performance of this type of network structure. The overall and divisional efficiencies of the system and each component can be derived, and the relationship between system efficiency, divisional efficiency and the ones of components is discussed. The newly developed additive network DEA is nonlinear and cannot be converted into a linear program. A semidefinite programming (SDP) approach is developed for effectively solving this model and the global solution can be guaranteed. Another linear multiplicative network DEA also developed for this hierarchical system. The two newly developed models are illustrated with a case of the performance evaluation of high-technology industry in China.     

交互记忆系统影响人群与工作交互的模拟研究

为探索交互记忆系统对知识型团队中人群与工作互动的影响,交互记忆系统通过基于多智能体建模被引入到模拟研究中.用互动网络模型描述任务、个体、技能的复杂联系.用交互记忆系统中任务执行、沟通、学习规则驱动此模型,考虑经济型和社会型两种智能体在交互时受环境因素的不同影响,设计通过数据库作为中间介质的人-物并行机制,并采用甘特图描述物系统中的任务计划和任务分配.用Repast和Java swing实现模拟系统,并用定性验证的方法确认该系统的可信性,最后给出一个应用分析.模拟实验研究表明,交互记忆系统可以提高任务完成质量,并缩减任务完成时间;一个团队在完成任务时并不是参与人越多越好,人在足够满足任务完成需要的情况下与工作有效交互可以发挥较高的效率.     

1 network privatisation: The trend for the future

At the recent Financial Times Conference on Telecommunications and the European Business Market: the Perspectives for Change, two of the contributors examined the question of whether companies should “make” their own private telecommunications network, or “buy” a publicly-offered service.The topic is not only interesting as a case study of “make or buy”, but is especially timely in the specific field of telecommunications in Europe. In June 1987, the European Commission issued its Green Paper on telecommunications liberalisation and rationalisation of Europe's equipment manufacturers. Current difficulties include national regulatory powers, cross subsidies, lack of common standards, and lack of agreement on standards, frequencies and tariff principles. Not least, rapid changes in the technology itself has turned telecommunications into a Strategic competitive asset for companies.The two authors of these articles argue from slightly different perspectives; White as a major user developing into a provider, and Wilson as an adviser and provider. Both are convinced that the make or buy decision is an over-simplification; there are other, intermediate, options. Both agree that which ever decision is taken, it is likely to be the most important one in information technology that companies make in the next few years.     

Implementation of customisation strategies in collaborative networks through an innovative Reference Framework

Consumer needs and expectations of specific target groups – such as elderly, obese, disabled or diabetic persons – are arising as challenging opportunities for European companies which are asked to supply innovative customised goods of high quality at affordable price. This is particularly true in the fashion as well as in the orthopaedic sector where there are many different competences to conjugate to offer dedicated products to the mentioned target groups. This paper aims at proposing a reference model to support companies in defining collaborative supply networks for customised production. In particular, this work describes the implementation of the developed model in a real case highlighting the changes implied at network level to address the need for fashionable and healthy products.     

Manufacturing Strategy: Testing the Cumulative Model in a Multiple Country Context*

This study statistically tests the cumulative model for the building of manufacturing capabilities by comparing and contrasting the manufacturing strategies of 265 North. American, 129 European, and 167 Korean factories by region. The cumulative model suggests that better performing competitors build one manufacturing capability upon another in a sequential, cumulative fashion—starting first with quality, followed by dependability, delivery, cost efficiency, flexibility, and lastly, innovation. The primary findings of this exploratory study are as follows: (1) the data yielded some evidence for the cumulative model, with the Korean data being the most supportive of the model; (2) North American, European, and Korean managers take different approaches to improved competitiveness; and (3) rather than focusing on one or two capabilities, better performing firms generally compete on the basis of multiple capabilities. That quality is not only at the base of the cumulative model but is often among the multiple capabilities shows the importance of quality management globally.     

Internal trade barriers are coming down in the EEC

There are many current examples of countries and companies infringing the free movement of goods within the European Economic Community. The rules governing this are clearly set out in Articles 30 to 36 of the Treaty of Rome and are rigorously applied by the Court of Justice of the European Communities.Noel Byrne gives examples from trade in erotica, water pipes, liqueurs, English language teaching materials and publicity leaflets to illustrate how transgressors can be dealt with. Intellectual property is an especially important field where protection can be used unjustifiably, and European Commission Directives are being introduced to liberalize public procurement.     

电信社群网络用户行为特征及演化分析

通过某地移动客户的通话数据构建电信社群网络,并对其网络结构进行分析,发现电信社群网络并不满足小世界特征,而且该网络的演化是以边生长为主导。基于该结构特征,构建电信社群网的演化模型,发现网络非均匀性与节点的朋友圈数目、连接概率和新增节点边数有关。其研究结论对新运营商通过营销策略的制定,推动电信社群网络快速向小世界网络演化具有积极的现实意义。     

数据驱动的产品研发转型：组织惯例适应性变革视角的案例研究

现有研究多聚焦于大数据对产品研发流程与绩效的影响,对基于经验的产品研发转变为数据驱动的产品研发的转型路径、实现机制与转型范式缺乏理论探讨。本文基于组织惯例适应性变革的整合视角,通过对韩都衣舍的纵向案例研究,提出从基于经验的产品研发转变为数据驱动的产品研发的两阶段转型模型,剖析了数据驱动的产品研发转型的组织惯例适应性变革机制,提出了数据驱动的产品研发转型范式理论模型,对"数据驱动"的内涵进行了创新性阐述。本文从转型路径、实现机制与转型范式3个方面构建了数据驱动的产品研发转型理论,研究结论对数字经济时代数据驱动产品创新的企业实践提供了政策启示。     

Efficiency decomposition in dealers from the perspectives of demand forecasting,sales force,and inventory control: a case study

Efficiency decomposition is being able to know the most effective way to improve a company’s organisational efficiency. This study proposes a network performance evaluation model with non-controllable variables to evaluate dealers with an emphasis on their internal processes, including demand forecasting, sales force and inventory control. The proposed model decomposes the organisational efficiency into a weighted average of internal process efficiencies, where the weights associated with the internal processes are data-driven. This is applied to an empirical case consisting of 27 automobile parts dealers in Taiwan. Based on the analysis results, dealers know the relative contribution of each internal process to the organisational efficiency, and inefficient dealers are assigned targets for enhancing the organisational efficiency as well as the process efficiencies.     

适应性供应链的复杂网络模型研究

面对经济全球化、顾客需求的多样化和众多不确定性因素,传统的供应链必须向适应性供应链转变。适应性供应链已经开始引起企业和学术界的关注。本文探讨了适应性供应链的概念,指出学习是提高供应链适应能力的一个重要途径,并提出了适应性供应链的一个初步模型框架。然后建立了供应链的复杂网络演化模型,导出了其基本统计规律,最后给出了仿真结果。研究对于探讨供应链的复杂动态演化规律具有一定意义。