The role of cognitive load in effective strategic issue management

Firms have different ways of addressing issues emerging from outside their regular calendar-driven strategy processes. These practices tend to be unstructured, organization specific, and highly dependent on the characteristics of the strategic issues themselves. Building on three dimensions of cognitive load—intrinsic, germane, and extraneous cognitive load—we extend existing research on strategic issue management by showing how different team-level choices in strategic issue processing and organizational congestion interact in their effects on a firm's strategic issue management performance. Based on an in-depth analysis of all 92 strategic issue decisions in a large multinational firm during a three-year period, we find that organizational disturbances influence strategic issue initiation by top management, which in turn influences the quality of strategic issue management practices and subsequent performance outcomes. We conclude by providing recommendations for managers on how they can decrease the sensitivity of their companies' strategic issue systems to external disturbances.     

Regulatory intervention and the effect of changes in corporate governance on firm decisions and market reactions

This paper investigates whether Italian companies that cross-list in the United States between 1993 and 2005 show (1) a change in their internal policies as anticipated by the bonding hypothesis, (2) an increase in market value, or (3) an increase in the access to capital funds. We use the unique environment created by the 1998 Draghi reform which significantly improved the protection of Italian listed companies’ minority shareholders and we further examine the impact of legislated changes in corporate governance in Italy on the decision of Italian companies to cross-list in the United States. Our results indicate that following the Draghi reform (1) firms that cross-list in the United States modify their dividend and cash policies as anticipated by the bonding hypothesis. Contrary to prior research, (2) we do not find evidence that cross-listing serves to enhance shareholder value or (3) is used as a vehicle to more easily access capital funds either before or after the domestic corporate governance is improved. The results of this study provide evidence that country level legislative innovations intended to enhance a weak corporate governance system can be a valid and effective substitute to the bonding mechanism by providing an alternative signal of a firm’s quality.     

一个基于主体的宏观经济模型

提供了一个基于主体的宏观经济模型———ASMEC-C,用于分析宏观经济政策的效应.经济模型由多个家庭、多个企业、一个银行和一个政府等微观个体组成;微观个体的状态和行为具有重要差异;微观个体在各种市场环境下相互作用;微观个体能够根据环境的变化不断调整自己的行为;宏观经济动态是微观个体相互作用自然累积的结果.用人工适应主体个别地模拟微观经济个体,ASMEC-C模型建立了一个人工经济社会.用该模型模拟分析了货币政策和财政政策的政策效应,模拟实验结果与经济理论推断基本吻合.     

New directions for management accounting

Using a general systems rationale, this paper develops a theoretical structure for approaching the problem of management accounting. The management control problem is explicated in terms of maintaining a relationship between the enterprise's structure and its environment. An enterprise's structure is composed of three elements (and their inter-relations): a decision and control subsystem; a financial funds subsystem and an operating (physical transforms) subsystem. Portrayed in these terms, the problem of management accounting is shown to require a methodology which is able to take cognizance of economic, sociological, psychological and other aspects of the enterprise system. The model described here provides a general intellectual frame of reference for ordering the problem.     

Modeling for insights,not numbers: the experiences of the energy modeling forum

It has often been contended that the primary goal of policy modeling should be the insights quantitative models can provide, not the precise-looking projections—i.e. numbers—they can produce for any given scenario. Students of the energy policy process, in particular, have noted that preoccupation with the plethora of detailed quantitative results produced by large-scale computer models has substantially impeded their influence on key policy decisions. The creation of the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) at Stanford University in 1976 represents one potential remedy for that situation. The EMF was formed to foster better communication between the builders and users of energy models in energy planning and policy analysis. The EMF operates through ad hoc working groups, composed of national and, more recently, international energy modeling and policy experts. These working groups conduct studies concentrating on a single energy topic. The diversity of backgrounds of the working group members ensures that the language of the EMF studies is English, not computer. Each working group identifies existing models relevant to the study's focus. A series of tests is then designed by the group to illuminate the models' basic structure and behavior. A comparison of results is published in a widely distributed report that identifies the models' strengths and weaknesses in the context of the study's topic. Seven EMF studies have been initiated to date: (1) Energy and the economy, (2) Coal in transition, (3) Electric load forecasting, (4) Aggregate elasticity of energy demand, (5) US oil and gas supply, (6) World oil and (7) Macroeconomic impacts of energy shocks. Each EMF study has broadened the understanding of the nature of the relevant policy issues and the models that have been, are, or could be used to address them. The present paper describes how each study's key insights were developed in the context of a simplified analytical framework that provided the proper perspective for understanding the model results.     

双渠道风险传染下银行系统稳定性分析

随着金融危机的频率和范围的不断扩大,银行系统性风险的研究越来越受到重视。针对银行业系统性风险,构建银行同业拆借（直接传染渠道）、银行共同持有资产（间接传染渠道）的双渠道风险传染网络模型。该模型引入了宏观经济波动带来的投资风险,并允许银行通过贬值出售资产来弥补流动性,这更真实地反映了银行系统的操作规则。研究结果表明,在各种经济因素波动情况下,平均储蓄量、储蓄的波动幅度、投资的收益率、存款准备金率以及储蓄利率等对银行系统稳定性的有较大影响,并进行了定量分析。该研究为定量研究宏观经济波动下银行系统性风险问题提供了方案,并为决策者和监管部门防范银行系统性风险提供了参考。     

The aura of charisma: A review on the embodiment perspective as signaling

Charismatic leaders have consistently been shown to affect followers' performance, motivation, and satisfaction. Yet, what precisely constitutes charisma still remains somewhat enigmatic. So far, research has mainly focused on leader traits, leader behaviors, or the leader follower-relationship, and the subsequent consequences of each on followers' self-concepts. All of these approaches share the notion that leader charisma depends on an explicit interaction between leader and follower. With the present review paper, we extend extant theorizing by arguing that charisma is additionally informed by embodied signals that flow directly from either the leader or the immediate environment. We introduce the embodiment perspective on human perception and describe its utility for theoretically understanding the charismatic effect. Correspondingly, we review studies that show which concrete embodied cues can support the charismatic effect. Finally, we discuss the variety of new theoretical and practical implications that arise from this research and how they can complement existing approaches to charismatic leadership.     

The Role of Internal and External Complexity in Global Factory Performance: An NKC Application

The global factory literature suggests that MNCs can take advantage of global operations by extensively offshoring and outsourcing activities. However, the added difficulty for the lead firm to coordinate the resulting complex structure is often underestimated. Evidence could be found in Boeing's 787 Dreamliner project, in which the external complexity disrupted MNC performance. Motivated by the gap between theory and practice, this study focuses on systems of MNCs connected with each other with supplier-client relationships and/or outsourcing. In particular it investigates the interplay of the internal and external complexity in such systems and how their balance affects the system performance. The study models the internal and external complexity by using the NKC-simulation methodology and adjusting it to the specific MNC context. The NKC methodology is widely used in organization theory to study complex systems. Simulations comparing the performance of MNCs that use outsourcing to different degrees indicate that a balanced level of internal and external complexity is beneficial in the context of global factory.     

The politics of evaluation research

Despite enormous outlays of federal monies for social programs in the United States, many social problems toward which these funds have been directed have shown little remission. In some cases, the problems have worsened. Increasingly, social planners and administrators are being required to offer some proof concerning the efficacy of their particular program before Congress will refund them. Evaluation research has come to serve this legitimization function. Unfortunately, because of the nature of the political environment surrounding evaluation research, “objective” research often proves impossible. Even the most carefully designed and well-implemented evaluation is often sabotaged by political factors. The nature of the roles that various actors in the political environment feel compelled to play vis à vis evaluation research creates problems that directly affect ultimate research quality. This article seeks to identify the nature of this problem, how it is manifested in the behaviour of various people in governmental power structures and how an environment might be designed to reduce the political volatility of evaluation research.     

Assessing bank soundness with classification techniques

The recent crisis highlighted, once again, the importance of early warning models to assess the soundness of individual banks. In the present study, we use six quantitative techniques originating from various disciplines to classify banks in three groups. The first group includes very strong and strong banks; the second one includes adequate banks, while the third group includes banks with weaknesses or serious problems. We compare models developed with financial variables only, with models that incorporate additional information in relation to the regulatory environment, institutional development, and macroeconomic conditions. The accuracy of classification of the models that include only financial variables is rather poor. We observe a substantial improvement in accuracy when we consider the country-level variables, with five out of the six models achieving out-of-sample classification accuracy above 70% on average. The models developed with multi-criteria decision aid and artificial neural networks achieve the highest accuracies. We also explore the development of stacked models that combine the predictions of the individual models at a higher level. While the stacked models outperform the corresponding individual models in most cases, we found no evidence that the best stacked model can outperform the best individual model.     

Reducing exposure to exchange rate risk: A case study

During the last decade, with the advent of large fluctuations in the values of currencies, business managers came to realize that effective international financial management could be a major contributor to a firm's profitability. This same period showed aggressive marketing by U.S. firms in foreign markets. The resulting expansions have led to requirements for increased knowledge concerning foreign consumer behavior, pricing procedures and trade regulations. In addition, transactions with foreign customers have resulted in a more complex cash management environment. The firms may desire all payments received to be denominated in U.S. dollars, but such a policy could result in reduced exports if potential foreign importers wished to make payment in their own currency. Consequently, the U.S. firms should accomodate importers' desires and then implement a strategy to deal with the exchange rate risk. This paper develops such a strategy and illustrates how the strategy can be applied to a realistic case.     

FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS AND INNOVATION: WHY POOR COUNTRIES DON'T CATCH UP

This paper examines micro‐level channels through which financial development can affect such macroeconomic outcomes as level of income. Specifically, we investigate theoretically and empirically how financial constraints affect a firm's innovation activities. Theoretical predictions are tested using unique firm survey data, which provide direct measures for innovations and firm‐specific financial constraints, as well as information on shocks to firms' internal funds that serve as firm‐level instruments for financial constraints. We find unambiguous evidence that financial constraints restrain the ability of domestically owned firms to innovate and hence to catch up to the technological frontier.     

Risk return approach to product portfolio strategy

This article describes how a risk-return portfolio analysis, as originally developed in economics and finance, can be applied to product-line decisions. This approach uses direct estimates of return, and explicitly considers risk, or variation in return; most of the product portfolio models in use today forecast return by correlation, and lack explicit treatment of risk. The approach provides guidance for new product development activities as well as for allocating resources among a corporation's existing product lines. The article explains how organizations can apply this approach to their own product portfolio decisions, and includes a detailed example of how one company used this model.     

Antecedents and effects of individual ambidexterity – A cross-level investigation of exploration and exploitation activities at the employee level

For long-term success, companies need to adapt to technological and environmental change. Organizational ambidexterity, which balances the exploration of new opportunities with the exploitation of existing capabilities, is increasingly viewed as a promising approach to tackle this challenge. However, despite the important role of individuals for firms' ambidexterity and performance, evidence on how exploration of new opportunities and exploitation of existing capabilities are triggered at an individual level and on their subsequent effects on overall performance is still lacking. Accordingly, the present research shifts the focus from organizational ambidexterity to individual ambidexterity. Based on data from 415 employees, the results of structural equation modeling show that both organizational architecture and organizational context can be used to induce individual ambidexterity. Furthermore, positive performance effects of individual ambidexterity across different organizational levels, namely the team and department levels, are confirmed.     

Regression models of behavior for managerial decision making

A principal problem in systems studies concerns the development of models that will be accepted and used by decision makers in organizations. Regression models derived from managers' past behavior offer promise in overcoming this problem for many repetitive types of decisions. Employing a simulated production planning environment, this paper discusses both the potential usefulness and limitations of such models for understanding and improving decision making in practical applications.     

Mechanisms for environmental scanning

Over the past decade long range planning for industrial concerns has needed to take into account an everbroadening spectrum of environmental influences. Whereas at one time planning largely concerned itself with those aspects of the environment to do with the company's markets, nowadays the influence of other parts of the environment may have equal, or even greater influence than markets on the company's operation. The current environment of most industrial concerns appears to be characterized by three main components. Firstly, the environment is increasingly turbulent and uncertain. Secondly, organizations are increasingly less autonomous. Thirdly, other formal organizations are increasingly important components of a company's environment. The environment of most companies is therefore complex and uncertain. This complexity and uncertainty can only be reduced by attempting to analyse and understand the environment as an ongoing process, this process is now being called ‘environmental scanning’. The aim of this article is to describe some of the mechanisms which have been used to help companies scan their environments as a way of planning and controlling their destiny in the turbulent environment in which industry operates.     

基于logistic模型族的不良贷款极端零回收强度模型研究

不良贷款能否有回收是其定价、日常管理和回收策略的决定因素之一,而宏观经济和处置时效则是影响不良贷款能否有回收的双重利刃。本文依据我国最大的不良贷款数据库--LossMetrics^TM数据库,利用logistic模型族对清收时间跨度为2001-2008年的不良贷款零回收强度的动态变化影响因素进行了研究,并在研究中针对不同的样本分别建立了子模型和全模型,对多个模型的结果进行了对比。在全时间跨度模型中分析了GDP增速与零回收强度的直接关系;并把单笔贷款回收处置时间跨度分为小于12个月、12-22个月、23-60个月和超过60个月四组子样本,针对子样本分别建立模型,分析影响其各自零回收强度因素的区别。结果表明:GDP增速在大部分模型与零回收强度为显著负相关关系;在大部分子模型中不良贷款的有效抵质押因素显著,但在不同处置时间的子模型中显著情况有所不同。通过对零回收强度的研究可更好的结合宏观经济和处置时间来制订有效科学的回收策略。     

Combining Forecasts: Multiple Regression versus a Bayesian Approach*

Simple linear combinations of forecasts have consistently been found to be more accurate than individual forecasts. Several recent studies have found that combination forecasts derived by constrained or unconstrained multiple regression are more accurate than a simple average of individual forecasts. This study uses macroeconomic data to compare the accuracy of combination forecasts derived by a Bayesian methodology with the accuracy of composite forecasts derived by multiple regression. Using the forecasts of four macroeconomic variables from five well-known econometric models, the study finds that the Bayesian combination procedure produces more accurate composite forecasts than does the regression combination procedure, based on a version of Theil's U² statistic.     

A computerized cash concentration system

The Standard Oil Company of Ohio generates revenues at a large number of geographically dispersed retail outlets. These funds are initially deposited with local banks and are subsequently transferred to the Company's major bank accounts in Cleveland. This paper reports on a computerized system developed to introduce efficiency in this transfer process. The core of this new system is a modified inventory model which is used to issue transfer orders. The model captures the essential features of the process and at the same time is simple enough to be used in conjunction with a large commercial data processing system that contains the necessary data. The new system is a decision support system which allows management to intervene in the procedure for determining parameters of the decision model.