Welfare benefits and birth decisions of never-married women

For some time now, the out-of-wedlock birthrate has been increasing rapidly in the United States. This has prompted several states to propose (and in some cases, enact) legislation to deny access to higher AFDC benefits for families in which the mother gives birth while receiving AFDC. The authors investigate whether AFDC benefit levels are systematically related to the family-size decisions of never-married women. Using a bivariate probit model with state and time fixed effects, applied to Current Population Survey data for the years 1980–1988, it is found that the basic benefit level for a family of two (one adult and one child) and the incremental benefit for a second child positively affects the family size decisions of black and Hispanic women, but not of white women. The effects are concentrated among high school dropouts (no effects are found for high school graduates). The authors conclude that rather than to uniformly deny benefits to all AFDC women that bear children, a better targeted policy might be to alter the AFDC benefit structure in such a way as to encourage single mothers to complete high school. However, being a high school dropout might be a proxy for some other underlying characteristic of the woman, and encouraging women to complete high school who otherwise would not might have no effect whatsoever on nonmarital births.     

Legal abortion and fertility in Maryland, 1960–1971

In the brief period between 1967 and 1971 about one-third of the state legislatures passed abortion reform bills, and in states such as Maryland the number of legal abortions soared. Maryland with its good reporting system for legal abortions, as well as its demographic representativeness, appears to offer an ideal "test situation" for assessing the impact on fertility of the new liberalization. Data on live births and reported induced abortions to residents of the state have been compiled and analyzed in an effort to interpret the recent changes in birth rates. Variables examined include maternal age, birth order, race, and legitimacy.Since 1968, Maryland, along with higher than national average abortion ratios, has experienced a rate of decline in fertility greater than that for the nation. In addition, most of the age and parity groups with high abortion ratios show fertility declines greater than those for groups not using abortion as extensively, Nevertheless, because a number of different factors simultaneously influence fertility, it is hazardous to make accurate cause-and-effect statements on the relationship of any single one of these to the observed change.     

农民工随迁子女高中教育与高中择校、高考移民的辨析及启示

农民工随迁子女高中教育成为继义务教育之后亟需面对和解决的问题。然而,"农民工随迁子女高中教育"与"高中择校"、"高考移民"的模糊性限制了人们正确地认识和有效地解决该问题。基于此,本文对三者共性及差异性进行了辨析和梳理,并在此基础上提出,在政策导向上将三者区别对待,在实践上将"父母社保号/一定年限纳税证明+农民工随迁子女学籍年限"作为农民工随迁子女在流入地接受高中教育的资格,以期为农民工随迁子女高中教育权利的保障进行有益的探索。     

The Effect of Cultural Capital on High School Dropout: An Investigation in the Italian Provinces

This article studies at a detailed geographical level the relation between cultural capital and high school dropout. Bronfenbrenner’s systemic theory and Heckman’s perspective on cognitive/non-cognitive skills are considered as theoretical framework. We analyzed data from 103 Italian provinces employing Covariance Structure Analysis and spatial indices of autocorrelation. We found a consistent protective effect of cultural capital on dropout, independently of economic performance, in Central and Southern provinces, but not in Northern provinces. Spatial analyses showed very heterogeneous patterns of autocorrelation for dropout (especially across Southern provinces) even between neighboring areas, in spite of a more compact clustering when considering cultural and economic indicators. These results indicate that living in an environment with animated cultural life might enhance students’ non-cognitive skills, thus fostering their involvement in formative activities and the development of their human capital.     

Racial differences in high school dropout rates: An analysis of U.S. Metropolitan areas

In this paper, we explore the differences in high school dropout rates among white, black and Hispanic students in 275 U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in 2000. Our analysis focuses on the impact of community and labor market conditions, in hopes of providing insight into the relationship between place and educational outcomes. The explanatory power of our regression models is mixed across racial groups, performing best for whites and Hispanics. Our results also indicate that community factors – most importantly, same-race adult educational attainment in the community, teenage birth rates and residential stability – have a greater impact on dropout rates than labor market factors. Our results suggest that as education reform moves toward broad-based solutions to improve student outcomes including dropout rates, it will be increasingly important to address the structural origins of inequality outside of schools.     

Salary differentials or sex discrimination? Evidence from the academic labor market

This study uses data from two national faculty surveys to estimate the extent of salary discrimination by sex in the academic labor market. Following the Oaxaca method, discrimination is measured as a residual, subtracting salary differences due to individual characteristics from total male/female salary differences. Several estimates are derived while controlling for various personal and professional characteristics including: publications, academic discipline, rank, and characteristics of the employing institution. From 1968 to 1977 there is a substantial reduction in measured discrimination, although a small salary difference remains after controlling for all available qualifications in 1977.     

Early work experience of graduates and dropouts

For the past seven years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has reported on the differential work-force status of recent high school graduates and dropouts. Their definition of graduate and dropout populations and a failure to distinguish inter-cohort differences from intra-cohort changes may have led to an erroneous assessment of progress in the work force subsequent to entry. Emphasis on the value of a high-school diploma at the time of work-force entry rather than on the value of an incremental school year appears misplaced. Current data-collection programs are not generating the statistics needed to answer the policy questions to which these reports are addressed.     

Trends in fertility level in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics during the years of Soviet rule

The birth rates of the USSR within its present boundaries are reconstructed for the period 1918-1940 on the basis of incomplete data and taking into consideration several changes in frontiers. Estimates for the years 1941-1945 are derived from data on school attendance during the 1949-1954 period, as well as from data provided by the censuses of 1959 and 1970 concerning cohort survival. Deriving an "effective fertility rate," which adjusts for the mortality wastage of young children, discussion focus is on fertility trends until 1976 and the changes in age patterns of reproduction at the national level and in the various republics. During the 1918-1940 period, the birth rate in the USSR never fell below 30/1000 and never exceeded 45/1000. There was a significant drop in the birth rate in the 1931-1936 period, and this is attributable to the problems of the period of collectivization and to the large-scale processes of migration involved in the country's industrialization. After the late 1940s, the overall birth rate in the USSR stabilized at a level of 25-27/1000, but from 1960 onwards, there was a steady decline in the rate. The level reached its lowest in 1969 and then rose somewhat. This increase reflects the transient influence of changes in the age-marriage structure of the population and in the "timetable" of births. A comparison of the present fertility level with the level in the 1920s indicates that the birth rate has declined by a factor of approximately 2.5, but in evaluating this decline the sharp decline in mortality, particularly infant mortality, must also be considered. The child mortality level in prerevolutionary Russia was very high. The overall mortality rate for the 20 provinces of European Russia in 1920-1922 was 33.2/1000, namely, 1/4 higher than it was before the Revolution. In subsequent years infant mortality continued at a high level and was 18.2% in 1940. In the last 25 years mortality in children under age 5 has markedly declined. In 1976 the overall birth rate was 18.5/1000 and the "effective" birth rate was 18.0/1000. The practice of birth control in families is spreading in various ways. In some cases the proportion of married couples using family planning is increasing, while in other cases couples already using birth control are beginning to use it after the birth of a child lower in birth order. In most areas of the country birth control is being practiced predominantly in such a way as to keep families down to 1 or 2 children. For the whole of the USSR in 1973-1974, the gross reproduction rate was 1.178, while the net rate was 1.118. Although there is ample population replacement in the country as a whole, in a number of republics even mere replacement is threatened.     

Childhood events and circumstances influencing high school completion

This paper is an empirical exploration of the effects of a variety of family and economic circumstances experienced during childhood on one indicator of success in young adulthood--high school completion. The estimates suggest that parental education and mother's work are positive and significant determinants of high school completion, whereas growing up in a family with more children (who compete for resources), being persistently poor and on welfare, and moving one's residence as a child have significant negative impacts on high school completion. The effects of some family stress and economic events differ depending on the age of the child when they occur. The results support the economic model of investment in children, as well as the welfare culture and socialization models.     

Dropping out of post-compulsory education in the UK: an analysis of determinants and outcomes

We analyse the decision to drop out of post-compulsory education over the period 1985–1994 using data from the Youth Cohort Surveys. We show that the dropout rate declined between 1985 and 1994, in spite of the rising participation rate in education, but is still substantial. Dropping out is more or less constant over the period of study, though the risk of dropout does vary with young people’s prior attainment, ethnicity, family background and the state of the labour market. The course of study has a substantial effect on the risk of dropout.

Parental imprisonment,the prison boom,and the concentration of childhood disadvantage

Although much research has focused on how imprisonment transforms the life course of disadvantaged black men, researchers have paid little attention to how parental imprisonment alters the social experience of childhood. This article estimates the risk of parental imprisonment by age 14 for black and white children born in 1978 and 1990. This article also estimates the risk of parental imprisonment for children whose parents did not finish high school, finished high school only, or attended college. Results show the following: (1) 1 in 40 white children born in 1978 and 1 in 25 white children born in 1990 had a parent imprisoned; (2) 1 in 7 black children born in 1978 and 1 in 4 black children born in 1990 had a parent imprisoned; (3) inequality in the risk of parental imprisonment between white children of college-educated parents and all other children is growing; and (4) by age 14, 50.5% of black children born in 1990 to high school dropouts had a father imprisoned. These estimates, robustness checks, and extensions to longitudinal data indicate that parental imprisonment has emerged as a novel—and distinctively American—childhood risk that is concentrated among black children and children of low-education parents.     

Estimating marital fertility rates by educational attainment using a survey of new mothers

Marital fertility rates by educational attainment of mother are estimated for the United States for 1963. These calculations are based upon information collected in a probability sample survey of women having births in 1963 and are prepared by relating birth estimates for educational attainment groups to estimates of married women in corresponding groups.The rates do not display a negative association between educational attainment and the annual level of fertility, thus differing from the pattern observed in other measures of period fertility. Women who completed some high school but did not graduate and women with one or more years of college had higher annual fertility rates than women in other attainment classes.Alternative estimation procedures are discussed which illustrate difficulties in obtaining satisfactory correspondence between two independent surveys which are used to obtain the rate calculation components.     

State-Level 2010 Census Coverage Rates for Young Children

The Census Bureau’s demographic analysis (DA) shows that the net undercount rate for children aged 0–4 was 4.6 percent in the 2010 U.S. Decennial Census while adults (age 18 and older) had a net overcount rate of 0.7 percent. For the population aged 0–4, DA estimates are seen as more accurate than the U.S. Decennial Census because the estimates for this young population rely heavily on highly accurate birth certificate data. Given the relatively high net undercount rate for young children, it would be useful to examine census coverage rates for this population in subnational geographic units. In this study, the 2010 U.S. Decennial Census counts of children aged 0–4 are compared to the corresponding figures from the Census Bureau’s Vintage 2010 Population Estimates in each state. Differences between the 2010 U.S. Decennial Census count and the Vintage 2010 Population Estimates for the population aged 0–4 range from an estimated net undercount of 10.2 percent in Arizona to an estimated net overcount of 2.1 percent in North Dakota. Larger states tended to have higher net undercounts than smaller states. The ten largest states account for about 70 percent of the national net undercount of the population aged 0–4. Of all the factors examined here, the relative size of the Blacks Alone or in Combination plus Hispanics population is most highly correlated with the estimated net undercount of the population aged 0–4. Other measures that were highly correlated with net undercount rates for the population aged 0–4 were linguistic isolation, percent of adults without a high school degree, and the unemployment rate. In general, characteristics of people are more highly correlated with the net undercount rates of young children than the characteristics of housing units.     

Early Childbearing,School Attainment,and Cognitive Skills: Evidence From Madagascar

Female secondary school attendance has recently increased in sub-Saharan Africa, and so has the risk of becoming pregnant while attending school. We analyze the impact of teenage pregnancy on young women’s human capital using longitudinal data in Madagascar that capture the transition from adolescence to adulthood for a cohort aged 21–24 in 2012, first interviewed in 2004. We find that early childbearing increases the likelihood of dropping out of school and decreases the chances of completing secondary school. This pregnancy-related school dropout also has a detrimental impact on standardized test scores in math and French. We instrument early pregnancy with the young woman’s community-level access and her exposure to condoms since age 15 after controlling for pre-fertility socioeconomic conditions. Our results are robust to different specifications that address potential endogeneity of program placement and instrument validity.     

高中教育:中国人力资本积累的"瓶颈"

21世纪,人力资本积累量已经成为衡量一个国家综合实力的主要指标之一。在影响人力资本的各种因素中,教育特别是高中教育起着关键性的作用。中国教育起步较晚,高中教育还没有得到普及,体制尚不完善,这成为制约我国人力资本积累的主要"瓶颈"。因此,必须加快普及高中教育,加大对高中教育的投资力度,转变政府职能,实现"政校分开",逐步实现教育开放。     

Declining world fertility: trends,causes, implications

This Bulletin examines the evidence that the world's fertility has declined in recent years, the factors that appear to have accounted for the decline, and the implications for fertility and population growth rates to the end of the century. On the basis of a compilation of estimates available for all nations of the world, the authors derive estimates which indicate that the world's total fertility rate dropped from 4.6 to 4.1 births per woman between 1968 and 1975, thanks largely to an earlier and more rapid and universal decline in the fertility of less developed countries (LDCs) than had been anticipated. Statistical analysis of available data suggests that the socioeconomic progress made by LDCs in this period was not great enough to account for more than a proportion of the fertility decline and that organized family planning programs were a major contributing factor. The authors' projections, which are compared to similar projections from the World Bank, the United Nations, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census, indicate that, by the year 2000, less than 1/5 of the world's population will be in the "red danger" circle of explosive population growth (2.1% or more annually); most LDCs will be in a phase of fertility decline; and many of them -- along with most now developed countries -- will be at or near replacement level of fertility. The authors warn that "our optimistic prediction is premised upon a big IF -- if (organized) family planning (in LDCs) continues. It remains imperative that all of the developed nations of the world continue their contribution to this program undiminished."     

Out of Sight,Out of Mind: Including Group Quarters Residents With Household Residents Can Change What We Know About Working-Age People With Disabilities

Information about residents of institutional and noninstitutional group quarters (GQ), particularly those with disabilities, has been limited by gaps in survey data, and statistics based on data that exclude some or all GQ residents are biased as estimates of total population statistics. We used the 2006 and 2007 American Community Survey (ACS) to identify the distribution of working-age populations with and without disabilities by major residence type and to assess the sensitivity of disability statistics to GQ residence. Our findings show that (1) of those with disabilities, about 1 in 13 males and 1 in 33 females live in GQ; (2) GQ rates are higher for individuals reporting mental, self-care, or go-outside-the-home disabilities than for those reporting sensory, physical, or employment disabilities; (3) younger males with disabilities are more likely to reside there, particularly at institutional GQ, reflecting their relatively high incarceration rate; (4) individuals with and without disabilities who are black, American Indian, were never married, or have less than a high school education have higher GQ residence rates; (5) 40% of male and 62% of female GQ residents have a disability; (6) adding GQ residents to household residents increases estimated disability prevalence for males by 6%, and the estimated difference between disability prevalence rates by gender nearly disappears; and (7) inclusion of the GQ population substantially lowers employment rate estimates for young males, blacks, and American Indians.     

Estimation Of The Birth Rate For The Congo Through Nonconventional Techniques

This paper attempts to produce a set of alternative estimates of birth rates for the Congo and for its main regions through nonconventional techniques. The main body of data used for this purpose is supplied by the demographic survey undertaken during 1955-57. Two types of information on fertility are produced by this survey: (1) births to women by age during the 12 months preceding the survey and (2) children-ever-born to women by age. The available data, while reliable in certain respects, are deficient in others. Thus, the reports on children born during the year preceding the survey are acceptably accurate for the children who have survived but are insufficient for the children who have died.The task was to make the best possible use of various reliable pieces of information directly or indirectly related to fertility, in order to produce some reasonably acceptable estimate of birth rate. One procedure consisted of correcting the reported birth rate for the omission of infant deaths; another procedure involved the adjustment of the reported birth rate with reference to the mean parity of women. In addition to these, an estimate of birth rate was derived by means of stable population technique from the proportion of children under 5 years of age.Three sets of estimates of birth rate, then, have been produced. They yielded a high agreement for the country as a whole, as well as for the provincial and district levels. These estimates were then compared with the proportion of childless women and the proportion of children-the latter having been derived from the records of "continuous registration of inhabitants," a source of information which is completely independent of the demographic survey of 1955-57. Again, a reasonable agreement has been found among all these estimates.Statistical evidence examined in this paper supports a birth rate of about 45 per 1,000 for the Congo. The analysis reveals a high regional variation in birth rate: from 20 per 1,000 (Bas Uele) to 60 per 1,000 (Kivu). This variation is consistent with the variation in sterility level as evidenced by the proportion of women never having had a live birth. The proportion of childlessness varies from 5 percent (Kivu) to about 40 percent (Bas Uele) for women past child-bearing age.     

Early teen marriage and future poverty

Both early teen marriage and dropping out of high school have historically been associated with a variety of negative outcomes, including higher poverty rates throughout life. Are these negative outcomes due to preexisting differences, or do they represent the causal effect of marriage and schooling choices? To better understand the true personal and societal consequences, in this article, I use an instrumental variables (IV) approach that takes advantage of variation in state laws regulating the age at which individuals are allowed to marry, drop out of school, and begin work. The baseline IV estimate indicates that a woman who marries young is 31 percentage points more likely to live in poverty when she is older. Similarly, a woman who drops out of school is 11 percentage points more likely to be poor. The results are robust to a variety of alternative specifications and estimation methods, including limited information maximum likelihood (LIML) estimation and a control function approach. While grouped ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates for the early teen marriage variable are also large, OLS estimates based on individual-level data are small, consistent with a large amount of measurement error.Historically, individuals were allowed to enter into a marriage contract at a very young age. In Ancient Rome, the appropriate minimum age was regarded as 14 for males and 12 for females. When Rome became Christianized, these age minimums were adopted into the ecclesiastical law of the Catholic Church. This canon law governed most marriages in Western Europe until the Reformation. When England broke away from the Catholic Church, the Anglican Church carried with it the same minimum age requirements for the prospective bride and groom. The minimum age requirements of 12 and 14 were eventually written into English civil law. By default, these provisions became the minimum marriage ages in colonial America. These common laws inherited from the British remained in force in America unless a specific state law was enacted to replace them (see “Marriage Law,” Encyclopædia Britannica 2005; http://www.britannica.com).While Roman, Catholic, English, and early American law may have allowed marriage at 12 for girls and 14 for boys, many questioned the advisability of such early unions. Researchers and policymakers around the turn of the twentieth century recognized that teens may be especially ill-prepared to assume the familial responsibilities and financial pressures associated with marriage.¹ As a result of the changing economic and social landscape of the United States, in the latter part of the nineteenth century and throughout the twentieth century, individual states began to slowly raise the minimum legal age at which individuals were allowed to marry. In the United States, as in most developed countries, age restrictions have been revised upward so that they are now between 15 and 21 years of age.During this same time period, dramatic changes were also occurring in the educational system of the United States (see Goldin 1998, 1999; Goldin and Katz 1997, 2003; Lleras-Muney 2002). Free public schooling at the elementary level spread across the United States in the middle of the nineteenth century, and free secondary schooling proliferated in the early part of the twentieth century. As secondary schooling became more commonplace, states began to pass compulsory schooling laws. States often also passed child labor laws that stipulated minimum age or schooling requirements before a work permit would be granted. These state-specific compulsory schooling and child labor laws are correlated with the legal restrictions on marriage age, indicating that it might be important to consider the impact of all the laws simultaneously.There are at least two rationales often given for the use of state laws as policy instruments to limit teenagers’ choices. The first argument is that teens do not accurately compare short-run benefits versus long-run costs. If teens are making myopic decisions, restrictive state laws could prevent decisions they will later regret. It is also argued that the adverse effects associated with teenagers’ choices impose external costs on the rest of society. If these effects can be prevented, external costs (such as higher welfare expenditures) would also argue for restrictive state laws. Both teenage marriage and dropping out of high school are closely associated with a variety of negative outcomes, including poverty later in life. To assess the relevance of either argument, however, it is important to know whether the observed effects are causal.Any observed negative effects may be due to preexisting differences rather than a causal relationship between teen marriage (or schooling choices) and adverse adult outcomes. Women who marry as teens or drop out of school may come from more disadvantaged backgrounds or possess other unobserved characteristics that would naturally lead to worse outcomes. For example, teens choosing to marry young might have lower unobserved earnings ability, making it hard to draw conclusions about the causal relationship between teenage marriage and poverty.To identify the effect of a teenager’s marriage and schooling choices on future poverty, I use state-specific marriage, schooling, and child labor laws as instruments. Variation in these laws across states and over time can be used to identify the causal impact that teen marriage and high school completion have on future economic well-being. Although compulsory schooling laws have been used as instruments in a variety of settings, this appears to be the first time marriage laws have been used as instruments. The idea of the marriage law instrument is that states with restrictive marriage laws will prevent some teenagers from marrying who would have married young had they lived in a state with more permissive laws.Using the marriage, schooling, and labor laws affecting teens as instruments for early marriage and high school completion, I find strong negative effects for both variables on future poverty status. The baseline instrumental variables (IV) estimates imply that a woman who marries young is 31 percentage points more likely to live in poverty when she is older. Similarly, a woman who drops out of school is 11 percentage points more likely to be living in a family whose income is below the poverty line. The IV results are robust to a variety of alternative specifications and estimation methods, including limited information maximum likelihood (LIML) estimation and a control function approach. In comparison, the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates are very sensitive to how the data is aggregated, particularly for the early marriage variable. OLS estimates using grouped data are also large, while OLS estimates using individual-level data indicate a small effect for early teen marriage. Auxiliary data indicate a large amount of measurement error in the early marriage variable, suggesting the presence of attenuation bias in the individual-level OLS estimates.The remainder of the article proceeds as follows. I first briefly review the negative outcomes associated with teenage marriage and dropping out of school and discuss alternative perspectives on why teens might make these decisions. The following section describes the data and presents OLS estimates. The next section discusses the early marriage, compulsory schooling, and child labor laws that will be used as instruments. I then present the instrumental variable estimates and conduct several specification and robustness checks, including a discussion of measurement error issues and a reconciliation with the literature on teenage childbearing.     

Development Disparities and Peculiarities: An Empirical Investigation

The vast, sprawling and densely populated province of Punjab, while predominantly agricultural, is marked by considerable regional disparities. An attempt has been made in this paper to see to what extent the differences in the human and social development in its various districts is there. The study exhibits that those regions which are ranked as lagging districts have high disparities in terms of human development and social development with high urban and rural poverty estimates. It is clearly revealed that aggregate national figures mask vast sub regional disparities and speedy development in some regions may not necessarily elevate lagging regions.