Recent Changes in Metropolitan-Nonmetropolitan Migration Streams1

Abstract In this paper, we examine the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of migration streams between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas for four different years over the period 1975–1993. During this period, there have been three shifts in the direction of net metro-nonmetro migration. Through nonmetro net in-migration, the “nonmetropolitan turnaround” of the 1970s reversed historical patterns of nonmetro loss of human resources, with gains and increased retention of the young and better-educated. The 1980s, however, again saw net-migration loss, including large shifts from gain to loss, especially among the young and better-educated and for workers in white collar occupations. In the 1990s, the overall pattern is again one of nonmetro net-migration gain or reduced loss, with the greatest increases among those higher status groups which experienced the greatest declines during the 1980s. The latest pattern is due largely to increased population retention, whereas previous research has shown the migration turnaround of the 1970s was due about equally to increasing retention and in-migration.     

Potential labor force supply and replacement in Mexico and the states of the Mexican Cession and Texas: 1980-2000

"The purpose of this article is to carry forward the examination of potential labor force supply and replacement of men in Mexico into the 1980-1990 and 1990-2000 decades so that the possible future course of international migration between that country and the United States may be better anticipated. In addition, to provide a degree of developmental perspective, trends in potential labor force supply and replacement in Mexico since 1930-40 are presented." As a contrast, "ratios of potential labor force supply and replacement in the southwestern United States--the states of the Mexican Cession and Texas, which were formerly part of Mexico--also are shown for the 1980-1990 and 1990-2000 intervals." The results suggest that "in Mexico, the projected number of males entering the labor force ages will be about 48 percent larger in the 1980s than in the 1970s.... Fertility declined significantly in Mexico in the 1970s, and therefore the number of new entrants to the labor force ages in the 1990s will decline...." The implications for international migration between Mexico and the United States are considered.     

Continuities in Size of Place Preferences in the United States, 1972–19921

Abstract The directions of net migration and population redistribution in the U.S. have switched from nonmetropolitan deconcentration during the 1970s, to metropolitan concentration during the 1980s, and back to deconcentration once again in the early 1990s. The complex causes of these distribution shifts are thought to involve both structural reconfigurations of economic activities that affect the location of opportunities and residential preferences that are tied more closely to amenities and quality of life considerations. This paper uses comparable data from three representative sample surveys of the U.S. population to update and extend earlier research on the preferential basis of redistribution trends. Our analysis does not support the view that shifts in the direction of residential preferences during 1972–1992 tend to coincide with shifts in metropolitan-nonmetropolitan net migration and population redistribution. Rather, a consistent finding across all three surveys is that most people prefer their current residence type, and those who do not are almost twice as likely to prefer lower rather than higher density settings. These findings support the importance of preferences to explanations of recent population trends, but these preferences are not in isolation from the economic contexts in which they occur.     

State and Regional Policy Implications of Elderly Migration

This paper uses the 1980 Census data to estimate the size of the economic transfers associated with the 1985 to 1990 interregional migration of older persons. Total economic transfers are estimated by multiplying interregional migration flows of older persons by the average income of older persons in each migration stream. Assuming an average life expectancy of 15 years for elderly migrants and an expenditure multiplier of 2, the total redistribution of income as a result of 1985 to 1990 elderly migration is estimated to be over $600 billion. The South Atlantic and Mountain regions are the recipients of the largest positive net transfers; the East North Central and West North Central regions have the largest negative net transfers.     

State and regional policy implications of elderly migration

This paper uses the 1980 Census data to estimate the size of the economic transfers associated with the 1985 to 1990 interregional migration of older persons. Total economic transfers are estimated by multiplying interregional migration flows of older persons by the average income of older persons in each migration stream. Assuming an average life expectancy of 15 years for elderly migrants and an expenditure multiplier of 2, the total redistribution of income as a result of 1985 to 1990 elderly migration is estimated to be over $600 billion. The South Atlantic and Mountain regions are the recipients of the largest positive net transfers; the East North Central and West North Central regions have the largest negative net transfers.     

Undocumented residents in the United States in 1990: issues of uncertainty in quantification

"Uncertainties are abundant about the measurement of net undocumented migration [to the United States] and change over the past two decades. This analysis presents possible upper and lower boundaries on components for estimating legal migration in 1980-1989 and on the foreign-born population in 1990. Positing ranges for net undocumented immigration, between 2 million and 4 million undocumented residents may have been counted in the 1990 census. The total number of undocumented residents may have been as high as 6 million."     

The Impact of Long–term Visitor Migration on Projections of Australia's Population

In 1999 and 2000, net long–term visitor migration to Australia exceeded net permanent migration for the first time. A shift in Australia’s migration entry from permanent settlers to long–term visitors has many implications. This paper focuses on the longer–term demographic impacts of this change. In conventional projections of Australia’s population, particular levels of annual net overseas migration are assumed and there is an implicit assumption that these levels represent permanent migration. The question addressed in this paper is: if permanent residents and temporary residents of Australia are treated as two separate populations, does this change the outcomes of population projections? The paper uses a new projection model that divides the Australian population into these two components. Each population is projected separately with provision for movement from the visitor population to the permanent population. Visitors who do not convert to permanent residence are “tagged” with their expected year of departure and are taken out of the population in that year. They are also assumed to have a zero birth rate (because any births they have will leave with them). A conventional population projection based on 1999 levels of annual net overseas migration (88,000) results in an Australian population of around 25 million in 2050. In contrast, a “standard” projection, which is also based on 1999 migration levels, but considers permanent movements (50,000 net annually) and long–term visitor movements (125,000 annual arrivals) separately results in a population of 23 million by 2050. Other projections are carried out in which specified net migration targets are met through varying either the level of net permanent–resident migration, the level of long–term visitor arrivals, or the rate of conversion of long–term visitors to permanent residence. The central conclusion of the study is that dividing the Australian population into two parts, permanent residents and long–term visitors, and projecting them separately into the future makes a considerable difference to the results of population projections.     

International Dimensions of Post-1980 Internal Migration in the United States: The Role of Sustenance Specialization and Dominance

Post-1980 internal migration patterns were unanticipated, and prevailing explanations of them fail to account for the effects of new international relationships. A human ecological theory is developed which suggests an explanation based on the sphere of sustenance activities in ecosystems and relative dominance in these activities. Larger net migration was expected for counties specialized in activities that operate in international ecosystems in which the United States is dominant and less in other types of counties. The results for post-1980 migration in United States counties support these expectations and the utility of an expanded human ecological perspective.     

Demography of Illicit Emigration from China: A Sending Country's Perspective

This paper examines the demographic trends of international migration from China, particularly from Fujian Province in the 1980s and 1990s, comparing the characteristics of emigrants with nonemigrants. This research yields two major findings. First, Fujian Province became a leading immigrant-sending province in the mid-1990s. Second, there have also been changes in socioeconomic status (SES) selectivity of emigration from Fujian from 1990 to 1995. In particular, this change in emigration selectivity is characterized by a significant shift from urbanites to rural peasants. The future prospects of emigration from Fujian and China are explored.     

Adjusting for Change of Status in International Migration: Demographic Implications

The calculation of net immigration for the purpose of estimating the resident population in Australia is based on net permanent and long–term (12 months or more) movements into and out of the country. All international movements with duration of stay in Australia or travel abroad of less than 12 months (defined as short–term) are excluded. However, changes between short–term and long–term/permanent status can occur when people extend or shorten their stay or travel. Because net immigration is a significant component of Australia’s population growth (accounting for 40–50 per cent of annual growth), adjusting for these changes in migration status is thought to result in better estimates of net immigration and the resident population. The paper shows that adjusting for change of status can have a large impact on net immigration, particularly when the immigrant intake is small. Failure to adequately adjust for change of status can also lead to misleading conclusions about the relative contributions of net temporary and permanent movements to total net immigration. The effect on the resident population, however, is relatively small, being less than 1 per cent of the total population. The paper also addresses the question of how important it is for countries to adjust for change of migrant status in international migration statistics in the context of increasing international mobility.     

CALL FOR PAPERS

In this article historical patterns and recent trends in black migration in the United States are examined. The purpose of the article is two‐fold: (1) to examine historical changes in the volume and rates of migration between the southern region and nonsouthern regions; and (2) to determine the relative impact of migration types on the South's changeover to net in‐migration during the 1975–1980 migration interval.

The findings of this study indicate that the reversal of the historical pattern of net out‐migration of blacks from the southern region occurred two decades after the turnaround for the general population. The southern region changed from sizable net out‐migration for blacks during the period before 1970 to net in‐migration during the 1975–1980 migration interval. The changeover was due to a substantial decrease in the number of both southern‐born and non‐southern‐born blacks leaving the South. There were also increases in the rate of in‐migration into the region among both return migrants and nonsouthern migrants. The single most important factor influencing the turnaround was a decrease in the number of southern‐born blacks migrating out of the region. This finding is contrary to much current speculation about the role of return migrants in influencing the South's changeover to net in‐migration for the black population.     

Nonmetropolitan Population Change in the Mountain West: 1970–1995

Abstract Current research on nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) population change shows that, to date, the 1990s are reminiscent of the 1970s rather than the 1980s. Nonmetro areas, including the Mountain West, are again gaining population through increases in net migration. Over the past several years, subareas within the Mountain West have experienced some of the fastest rates of population growth and economic expansion in the United States. Current growth patterns in the Mountain West are distinct from those in both the 1970s “rural renaissance” and the 1980s “nonmetro contraction” periods. Nonmetro counties in the Mountain West are growing at about the same rate as metropolitan (metro) counties, and although the growth rate is slower now than in the 1970s, more counties are participating in the growth. These findings support earlier research suggesting that nonmetro growth may not be ending.     

Demographic Change in Nonmetropolitan America, 1980 to 19901

Abstract Between 1980 and 1990, the nonmetropolitan population grew by 3.7 percent. Natural increase accounted for the entire population gain, offsetting a small migration loss (1.7%). A significant net loss of young adults from nonmetropolitan areas was only partially offset by an influx of older adults. The net gain through natural increase was small by historical standards and natural decrease became more common. The demographic trends of the 1980s were neither a repeat of the turnaround of the 1970s nor a reversion to historical patterns. Rather, they straddled the trends of the two preceding periods. These findings provide the demographic groundwork for future theoretical development. The policy implications of such population redistribution and demographic compositional shifts also are considered.     

Organized International Asylum‐Seeker Networks: Formation and Utilization by Chinese Students1

This article examines the formation and role of international networks formed by Chinese students living in the West in the late 1980s and early 1990s as part of their efforts to obtain the right to remain in Western countries in the immediate aftermath of the Tiananmen Square violence of June 4, 1989. Various forms of migrant social networks have been a research focus in international refugee and migration studies, but international networks formed by asylum seekers themselves, and their role in asylum‐seeking processes, have been largely ignored. This article is based on a multi‐method comparative study of Chinese students living in Australia and the United States at the time. Their experience provides data for examining and conceptualizing the role of organized international asylum‐seeker networks in the asylum‐seeking process. The analysis focuses on Chinese student lobbying in 1989, led by an independent Chinese student union, which helped “the Pelosi Bill” to be passed by the U.S. Congress. The main strategies adopted by Chinese students in the United States and Australia, as well as their internationally coordinated actions, are compared. Also examined is the role of two politicized international Chinese student organizations, the Chinese Alliance for Democracy and the Federation for Democratic China, in assisting students with obtaining residence.     

Public policy implications of elderly interstate migration to Oregon, 1985-1990

Several Oregon counties received a noticeable influx of elderly migrants from other states during the 1980s. Oregon policy regarding taxes, land use, and long-term care is examined for possible influence on migration. Models of elderly migration are examined for insight into how public policy influences migration, and previous research regarding the effects of elderly migration on public policy is reviewed. Data regarding disability and financial vulnerability among elderly by migration status are analyzed for possible influence upon public policy. Change in the population aged 65 and older mirrored state and national patterns for 1980 to 1990 and 1990 to 1999. Interstate elderly arriving in attractive counties reported a low prevalence of disability and financial vulnerability, indicating a low risk of demanding public assistance. Interstate elderly arriving in population centers reported a relatively high prevalence of disability but a low prevalence of financial vulnerability. This may suggest that Oregon's long-term care policy influenced elderly migration.     

Statistical estimation of socio-economic factors affecting migration in W. Europe

A statistical estimation of the relationship between socioeconomic factors and net international migration in Western Europe from 1977 to 1980 is presented using data from the Monthly Bulletin of Statistics and the Statistical Yearbooks of the United Nations and each country. It is found that the rate of change in the gross national income, the percentage of the gross national income in the tertiary sector, and the number of automobiles per 1,000 inhabitants are the major factors affecting net migration in the most industrialized countries of Western Europe.     

Migrants,Refugees and Insecurity. Current Threats to Peace?

Since the early 1980s, international migration has moved beyond humanitarian, economic development, labour market and societal integration concerns, raising complex interactive security implications for governments of migrant sending, receiving and transit countries, as well as for multilateral bodies. This article examines the effects of international migration on varied understandings and perceptions of international security. It discusses why international migration has come to be perceived as a security issue, both in industrialized and developing countries. Questions are raised on the migration-security nexus and the way in which the concepts 'security' and 'migration' are used. The real and perceived impacts of international migration upon national and regional security, both in industrialized and developing countries, are analysed. The policies developed by governments and multilateral agencies since the mid-1980s to mitigate the destabilizing effects of certain kinds of international population movement and human displacement are examined. The conclusions stress the need for the establishment of a comprehensive framework of international cooperation among origin and receiving countries and international organizations to address the destabilizing implications of international migration.     

Public Policy Implications of Elderly Interstate Migration to Oregon, 1985-1990

Abstract

Several Oregon counties received a noticeable influx of elderly migrants from other states during the 1980s. Oregon policy regarding taxes, land use, and long-term care is examined for possible influence on migration. Models of elderly migration are examined for insight into how public policy influences migration, and previous research regarding the effects of elderly migration on public policy is reviewed. Data regarding disability and financial vulnerability among elderly by migration status are analyzed for possible influence upon public policy.

Change in the population aged 65 and older mirrored state and national patterns for 1980 to 1990 and 1990 to 1999. Interstate elderly arriving in attractive counties reported a low prevalence of disability and financial vulnerability, indicating a low risk of demanding public assistance. Interstate elderly arriving in population centers reported a relatively high prevalence of disability but a low prevalence of financial vulnerability. This may suggest that Oregon's long-term care policy influenced elderly migration.     

The Recent Revival of Widespread Population Growth in Nonmetropolitan Areas of the United States1

Abstract Population growth was widespread in nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) areas of the United States during the early 1990s. More than 64 percent of the 2,277 nonmetro counties gained population between 1990 and 1992, compared with only 45 percent in the 1980s. The nonmetro population still grew at a slower pace than did the metropolitan population, but the gap was much narrower than during the 1980s. Net migration gains accounted for 43 percent of the total estimated nonmetro population increase of 879,000 between 1990 and 1992. These findings suggest it is premature to conclude that the renewed population growth in nonmetro areas first noted in the 1970s has ended.     

Asian Transnational Families in New Zealand: Dynamics and Challenges

Since the 1990s, Asia has emerged as the major contributor of migration flows into New Zealand. Settler migration, tourism, international business and more recently, international education make up the diverse flows of Asian peoples into the country. This paper explores the changing dynamics of Asian transnational families over the last two decades, with a special focus on the experiences of young people within these families. In the early 1990s, bi-local families were commonly known as "astronaut" families, in which one or both parents returned to their countries of origin to work, leaving their children to be educated in New Zealand. Over time the structures of these families have changed, as many young migrants relocated back to their former homeland or re-migrated to a third country, while "astronaut parents" rejoined their spouses either in the origin or destination. More recently, the educational migration of international students from countries in Asia has given rise to another form of transnational family, in which young people enter New Zealand as international students and some subsequently become residents. In this paper, the experiences of these young people are explored within the wider context of family strategies for maximising benefits through spatially extended networks on the one hand, and government initiatives and immigration policy changes that have been taking place in New Zealand since the 1990s on the other.