Income expectations,rural-urban migration and employment in Africa

This article develops a theoretical framework explaining the influence of economic conditions on rural-urban migration in tropical Africa. The model explains the continued process of migration despite high levels of urban unemployment. A lengthy discussion is devoted to short-, intermediate-, and long-term policies for relieving the urban unemployment problem. It is argued that efforts must be made to reduce the differences between the expectation of urban income and real rural income. No one single policy will slow rural-to-urban migration. The author suggests policies that would eliminate factor-price distortions, restrain urban wages, redirect development toward concentrated and comprehensive programs of rural development, resettle and repatriate unemployed urban migrants, and establish capital-goods industries. The capital-goods industries would develop labor-intensive technologies for agriculture and industry. The theoretical model assumes that migrants make decisions about moving on the basis of an expected income and the expectation of an urban job. It is argued that the urban-rural income differences and the probability of securing an urban job determine the rate and extent of rural-urban migration in Africa. If the migrant has a low probability of finding regular wage employment in the short term, but expects the probability to increase over time, the migrant would make a rational decision to migrate. Policies that operate solely on urban labor demand are considered unlikely to reduce urban unemployment. This model better estimates the shadow prices of rural labor.     

Spatial Redistribution of Poverty through Migration of Poor People to Depressed Rural Communities1

Recent demographic studies document movement of poor people from both urban and rural places to depressed rural communities. Such migration redistributes poverty to rural areas and further concentrates it within them. This article presents a case study of one depressed community in New York that became a migration destination for urban poor people, causing dramatic increases in poverty rate, welfare rolls, and service needs. On-site research showed that the community's attraction was inexpensive rental housing that had become available after loss of manufacturing jobs prompted a middle-class exodus. The lack of jobs was not a deterrent for low-income inmigrants, though, because many of them had limited job skills and other employment barriers and would have had difficulty getting or holding a job anyway. Similar processes of economic decline, population loss, and poverty inmigration appear to be occurring elsewhere also. The article identifies community-level impacts and policy implications; it concludes with suggestions for further research needs.     

One Family, Two Households: Rural to Urban Migration in Kenya

Many households in sub-Saharan Africa allocate their labor resources between rural and urban areas to diversify risks and maximize income. One such strategy would be for a husband in a rural area to migrate to an urban area while his wife and family remain in the rural area without any chance of joining the migrant husband in the urban area. The family maintains a rural home and an urban home. This article explores possible determinants of this type of migration using data from Kenya. Nontrivial findings suggest that such migratory behavior may be motivated by agglomeration effects of household size in the rural area, an increase in remittance by the migrant husband to his rural family, a relatively low education for the husband, and a high urban cost of living.     

AFDC AND WORK: MAGNETS OR ANCHORS FOR THE POOR?

Literature analyzing the linkage between welfare and interstate migration is divided. Lack of consistent findings partially depends on sample used and time period when studies are done. Choice of analytical modeling technique has also led to divergent findings. This paper addresses these issues by comparing the effects of welfare and work on poor/nonpoor migration patterns using contemporary structural and household data. Findings offer no support for the welfare magnet hypothesis. Effects of Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) differ by poverty status at the place of destination for 1985 and 1990. Householders are migrating to states with lower AFDC benefits. Effects of work also differ by poverty status. For 1985, householders are moving to states with lower unemployment rates. For 1990, householders are moving to states with lower wages. In general, householders remain in states with lower AFDC benefits giving more credence to an anchor effect of higher welfare benefits.     

Rural development and urban migration: can we keep them down on the farm?

This study tests the hypothesis that rural development projects and programs reduce rural-urban migration. The author presents various factors in the social theories of migration, including those relating to origin and destination, intervening obstacles such as distance, and personal factors. 3 economic models of migration are the human capital or cost-benefit approach, the expected income model, and the intersectoral linkage model. Empirical studies of migration indicate that: 1) rural areas with high rates of out-migration tend to have high population densities or high ratios of labor to arable land, 2) distance inhibits migration, 3) rural-urban migration is positively correlated with family income level, and 4) selectivity differences in socioeconomic status between migrants and nonmigrants often are grouped into development packages which might include irrigation, new varieties of seed, subsidized credit, increased extension, and improved marketing arrangements. The migration impacts of some of these efforts are described: 1) land reform usually is expected to slow rural out-migration because it normally increases labor utilization in rural areas, but this is a limited effect, 2) migration effects of the Green Revolution technology are mainly in rural-rural migration, and 3) agricultural mechanization may stimulate rural-urban migration in the long run. Development of rural social services migh have various effects on rural-urban migration. Better rural education, which improves the chances of urban employment, will stimulate rural-urban migration, while successful rural family planning programs will have a negative effect in the long run as there will be reduced population pressure on arable land. Better rural health services might reduce the incentive for rural-urban migration as well. It is suggested that governments reconsider policies which rely on rural development to curb rural-urban migration and alleviate problems of urban poverty and underemployment.     

Urban/rural elderly health status differences: the dichotomy reexamined

Health policy research analyzes urban/rural differences as a simple dichotomy. Research characterizes the rural elderly as having a higher incidence of sickness, dysfunction, disability, restricted mobility, and acute and chronic conditions than their urban counterparts. However, population density as a dichotomy may obscure urban, rural, or urban/rural differences. Interviews measuring health status were conducted with a representative sample of 2,300 elderly people in six Northeastern Ohio counties constituting an urban/rural continuum. On medical condition, use of medical aids, and symptoms, health status improved significantly when moving from rural to urban, but correlations were small. Using dichotomies, urban elderly reported fewer medical conditions and symptoms than rural elderly, but four other health-status variables revealed no significant association and results differed depending on how dichotomies were defined. When individual communities were compared few urban/rural patterns emerged. Controlling for demographics did not change interpretations. Findings question blanket assertions about urban/rural health-status differences. Medical resources may be misallocated. Rather than assuming poor health status among the rural elderly, researchers must verify differences through community-based research.     

Adolescents’ understanding of poverty and the poor in rural Malaysia

The aim of this research was to explore Malaysian adolescents’ perception of poverty and the poor. The data consisted of 79 semi-structured interviews with school children aged 12-13 and 15-16 years old from rural and urban areas in Sabah, Malaysia. According to them, poverty is mainly economic. Their responses about the causes of poverty can be categorised as individualistic, structural, fatalistic and other factors (such as age, geography, land and encouragement). Older respondents from rural and urban areas gave more individualistic and structural attributions compared to the younger respondents. While they believed that government is most responsible to help the poor, other parties such as the poor, public and NGO’s should also work together to alleviate poverty. They suggested that these parties can contribute in terms of donation, infrastructural improvement, education, attitudinal change and job opportunities. Respondents acknowledged that hard work and education are important to improve their standard of living. However, education is regarded as a ticket to seek their fortune elsewhere. These results emphasised the need for the Malay adolescents to learn about not being dependent on the government for employment in order to avoid mass urban migration in the near future.     

Breaking down rural and urban bias and interrogating spatial inequality,evidence from South Africa

This article investigates current socioeconomic disparities within rural and urban areas. The empirical analysis is grounded in an examination of urban and rural bias theories, which have often underpinned poverty analysis. This article suggests that poverty analysis can be improved by moving beyond the rural–urban binary and investigating differences across all geographical types (when data are available). Using 2012 household survey data on South Africa, the article sheds lights on substantial differences—in household composition and access to services and assets—that are likely to make households located in particular geotypes far more vulnerable to poverty. Finally, the article discusses how development policy can better address the specific income‐generating constraints that disadvantaged areas face.     

The State Connection in China's Rural‐Urban Migration1

This study explores the role of China's rural local state‐owned and urban state‐owned units in its rural‐urban migration process. Most studies on Chinese migration have focused on migrants moving from rural to urban areas through informal mechanisms outside of the state's control. They therefore treat the Chinese state as an obstructionist force and dismiss its facilitative role in the migration process. By documenting rural local states' “labor export” strategies and urban state units' employment of millions of peasants, this article provides a corrective to the existing literature. It highlights and explains the state connection in China's rural‐urban migration.

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Selectivity,adaptation, or disruption? A comparison of alternative hypotheses on the effects of migration on fertility: the case of Brazil

This study, based on Brazilian data from 1976, compared the fertility of migrants and stayers at both origin and destination areas. Observed patterns of fertility differentials were then analyzed in terms of 4 hypotheses of fertility behavior focused on processes of socialization, adaptation, selectivity, and disruption. In the study sample, 31% of migrants moved from rural to urban areas, 45% of moves were between urban areas, and 20% of moves were between rural areas. Among rural-to-urban migrants, only 1/3 moved from traditional to modern regions. To uncover the main patterns of migrant and stayer fertility differentials in the study population, the major flows of migrants by origin and destination were disaggregated by recency of migration, education, and age. The overall conclusions were as follows: 1) rural-urban migration flows need to be disaggregated into various modern/traditional cross-classifications (e.g., modern-rural, traditional-urban, frontier-urban) and greater emphasis needs to be placed on rural-urban, urban-urban, and rural-rural flows; 2) no robust quantitative measures of migrant-stayer fertility differentials held across migrant groups, implying that migrants differing in terms of age, education, origin, and destination are likely to behave in significantly variable fashion with regard to stayer standards of fertility behavior; 3) migrant groups with overall lower fertility levels, such as the young and better educated, are less likely to experience significant fertility reduction to bridge the origin/destination fertility gap; 4) rural-to-rural migrants do not appear to experience any lasting fertility reduction even when they move to areas with lower overall fertility rates; 5) urban-to-rural migrants tend to bridge a larger fraction of the uphill fertility gap than rural-to-urban migrants; and 6) there was evidence of partial adaptation for most migrant categories once disruption effects disappear and evidence consistent with the socialization hypothesis (no fertility reduction for at least 1 generation) was apparent for migrants originating in the least developed parts of Brazil, the frontier region, and the traditional-rural region.     

Urban/Rural Elderly Health Status Differences

Health policy research analyzes urban/rural differences as a simple dichotomy. Research characterizes the rural elderly as having a higher incidence of sickness, dysfunction, disability, restricted mobility, and acute and chronic conditions than their urban counterparts. However, population density as a dichotomy may obscure urban, rural, or urban/rural differences. Interviews measuring health status were conducted with a representative sample of 2,300 elderly people in six Northeastern Ohio counties constituting an urban/rural continuum. On medical condition, use of medical aids, and symptoms, health status improved significantly when moving from rural to urban, but correlations were small. Using dichotomies, urban elderly reported fewer medical conditions and symptoms than rural elderly, but four other health-status variables revealed no significant association and results differed depending on how dichotomies were defined. When individual communities were compared few urban/ rural patterns emerged. Controlling for demographics did not change interpretations. Findings question blanket assertions about urban/rural health-status differences. Medical resources may be misallocated. Rather than assuming poor health status among the rural elderly, researchers must verify differences through community-based research.     

RURAL POVERTY, URBAN POVERTY, AND PSYCHOLOGICAL WELL-BEING

Data from the National Survey of Families and Households are used to compare the psychological well-being of the rural and urban poor. Overall, the urban poor are higher in perceived health than the rural poor, although no differences are apparent in happiness or depression. Significant interactions are present between rural/urban poverty and sex, race, and family status. The psychological well-being of poor African Americans is higher in rural than urban areas, whereas the well-being of poor whites is higher in urban than rural areas. This trend is especially pronounced for depression among males. In addition, single men without children have especially high depression scores in rural areas, whereas married women without children have especially low depression scores in urban areas. The results are interpreted in terms of the environmental quality of inner-city neighborhoods and attitudes toward poverty in urban and rural communities.     

Return Migrations of African‐Americans to the South: Reclaiming a Land of Promise,Going Home,or Both?*

Abstract Using samples of census data from the University of Minnesota Population Center's “Integrated Public Use Microdata Series” (IPUMS), we describe trends in African‐American migration to the South across recent decades, and explore the applicability of the concept of “return migration” to various demographic patterns. Our findings suggest that the return movement contains multiple migration streams involving African‐Americans of higher socio‐economic status (compared with both origin and destination populations) moving to both urban and rural destinations. These patterns represent clear differences from the earlier 20^th century's “Great Migration” of African‐Americans from South to North. The recent return migration streams suggest that the South may be replacing the North as a “land of promise” for some upwardly mobile African‐Americans, and may also reflect what Carol Stack (1996) has termed a “call to home” as a motivating factor shaping recent African‐American migration to the rural South.     

Migration to less-popular rural areas in the Netherlands: Exploring the motivations

Migration into rural areas is often explained in terms of the rural idyll, the attraction of the countryside with its less hurried way of life in a quiet, spacious and green environment. However, this migration phenomenon has mostly been researched in attractive, amenity-rich, popular rural areas. This paper investigates the characteristics and motivations of migrants to less-popular rural areas using survey data (N = 664) for four municipalities in the North of the Netherlands. Our study shows a young group of in-migrants with relatively low incomes, but also a large proportion of working people and a considerable number of highly educated movers. Separating the motivations for choosing to live in a rural area in general from the motivations for choosing this specific rural area reveals that while the pull of the rural idyll is an important motivation for moving to a rural area in general, the reasons for choosing the specific rural area are a mixture of housing characteristics, the physical qualities of the environment, personal reasons and the low house prices in the area. Combining the motivations with the characteristics of the movers reveals the diversity within the movers group. Our analysis shows a group of movers motivated to live close to family and friends, consisting of return migrants, singles, the youngest and oldest age groups and also the lowest income group. The physical qualities of the environment attract a group of highly educated movers, people with high incomes and people aged between 35 and 64. The motivation of housing characteristics, referring in most cases to the availability of a specific house, is mentioned by a wide range of movers, but in particular by people moving from urban areas.     

The relationship between migration and fertility in an historical context: the case of Morocco in the 1960s

The relationship between migration and fertility was explored on the basis of data collected in a 1966 survey conducted in the 9 largest cities of Morocco. Existing contradictory findings suggest the need to specify and analyze the conditions under which fertility differentials by migration status are observed. The 2 theoretically most interesting conditions were considered: the historical context of migration; and the type of migration. A stratified area probability sample was selected with different sampling fractions within each city and city-strata. In each sampled household, 1 married woman under age 50 and 1 50 years and over, as well as single women ranging in age from 15-24, were selected at random and interviewed by female interviewers. The present analysis was limited to data for ever married women under age 50. The following variables were used as controls in the analysis of the relationship between migration status and fertility: the intermediate variable of age at marriage; measures of socioeconomic status; labor force participation of women; and measures of exposure to the modernizing influence of the city. If the 2 conditions of historical context and migration typology had been ignored in the analysis of data for Morocco's cities in 1966, meaningful fertility differentials would not have been evident. It was only after migration typology and historical context were considered that a more noticeable pattern of differential fertility emerged. Migrants of rural or urban origin who moved to the largest cities of Morocco after independence in 1956 had the lowest fertility of any group. The highest fertility was observed for women who moved to these cities before 1956. The fertility of urban natives and of urban migrants who moved before 1956 was between the 2 extreme levels. Controlling for the effects of age at marriage and various socioeconomic factors reduced the fertility differentials but failed to change their pattern. It was hypothesized that the lower fertility of recent migrants may be explained by social mobility.     

Poverty Catchments: Migration,Residential Mobility,and Population Turnover in Impoverished Rural Illinois Communities

Abstract Research has thoroughly documented how out‐migration of the educated and skilled from rural areas leaves behind a poorer population and creates pockets of rural poverty. Recently, studies have recognized that the poor are also geographically mobile and that poverty migration patterns can reinforce rural poverty concentrations. In this process, certain impoverished rural communities in economically depressed regions receive a disproportionate share of poverty migrants, concentrating poverty in certain locations. This paper examines the conditions and processes through which poor rural communities become likely destinations for a highly mobile segment of the rural poor and near‐poor. Utilizing case studies of depressed rural Illinois communities, it investigates how the interplay of community factors and the behavior of migrants transforms rural communities from residentially stable to highly mobile, impoverished places.     

Migration,the Urban Informal Sector,and Earnings in the Philippines*

This study investigates several issues pertaining to the urban informal sector and cityward migration in Philippine cities. The analysis of cross-sectional national demographic data reveals the four major patterns. First, the pattern of migrants' participation in the urban labor market varies greatly between male and female migrants. The widely held notion that migrants tend to enter the urban occupational structure through the informal sector seems to apply mainly to female migrants. Second, the informal sector must not be identified with urban poverty. Our data suggest that informal economies provide a wide range of income opportunities and that there is a great deal of overlap between formal- and informal-sector workers' incomes. Third, the effects of rural background and informal sector involvement seem to vary between Manila and the secondary cities. Fourth, sectoral boundaries do not seem to constitute a significant mobility barrier, but, due to the general lack of occupational mobility opportunities in Philippine cities, only a small proportion of those working in the informal sector are likely, to move out of it.     

Cross‐Border Marriages in South Korea and the Challenges of Rising Multiculturalism

This study explores trends in international marriage migration, determinants of international marriage, and factors that affect employment and poverty status of marriage migrant females in Korea. The results suggest that the number of cross‐border marriages increased rapidly in the early 2000s but has declined since the mid‐2000s, perhaps because of the Korean government's strict regulations and of saturation in the demand for foreign wives. The analysis also indicated that rural males with a graduate degree have a similar probability to urban males with a high‐school education. Employment opportunities vary substantially by the foreign wife's country of origin, implying that social policies for addressing the difficulties of multicultural families should be tailored toward specific ethnic groups. Those who participated in work training programmes were significantly more likely to be employed than non‐participants, and the size of social support network significantly reduced the odds of living in poverty.     

Occupational Status of Rural Outmigrants and Return Migrants1

Abstract This research analyzes the occupational status payoffs to short-term outmigration and return migration for male workers in a developing country. Using an occupational status model that integrates explanations from the status attainment and migration literatures and longitudinal data from the Philippine Migration Survey, the results show that both outmigrants and return migrants have lower occupational prestige scores than nonmigrants. Regression standardization and decomposition analyses reveal that while rural outmigrants are positively selected on socioeconomic characteristics compared with nonmigrants, their lower occupational prestige scores are largely because their prior farming and fishing occupational experiences does not properly prepare them for the urban labor market Return migrants' lower occupational status scores are due to negative selection on socioeconomic characteristics.     

Will Economic Crises in Africa Weaken Rural‐Urban Ties? Insights From Child Fosterage Trends in Cameroon*

Abstract The welfare of rural families in many African countries depends on their solidarity ties with urban kin. These ties often channel remittances from urban workers and support the education and economic mobility of children from rural families through fosterage into urban families. The continued operation of these rural‐urban solidarity networks, however, is challenged by recent economic downturns and increased urban poverty. Using Cameroon as a case study, we examine the effects of economic downturns on child fosterage as a component of changes in rural‐urban solidarity. Results show a net decline in rural outfosterage rates during the years of economic decline. Such findings raise concern for the economic mobility prospects for children from rural families, especially in a climate of increased competition for limited formalsector employment.