Demographic Change in Nonmetropolitan America, 1980 to 19901

Abstract Between 1980 and 1990, the nonmetropolitan population grew by 3.7 percent. Natural increase accounted for the entire population gain, offsetting a small migration loss (1.7%). A significant net loss of young adults from nonmetropolitan areas was only partially offset by an influx of older adults. The net gain through natural increase was small by historical standards and natural decrease became more common. The demographic trends of the 1980s were neither a repeat of the turnaround of the 1970s nor a reversion to historical patterns. Rather, they straddled the trends of the two preceding periods. These findings provide the demographic groundwork for future theoretical development. The policy implications of such population redistribution and demographic compositional shifts also are considered.     

Consequences of Population Change for Retail/Wholesale Sector Employment in the Nonmetropolitan Great Plains: 1950–19961

Abstract A rural economic restructuring perspective and central place theory are used to assess the impact of population change on retail/wholesale sector employment for the 438 nonmetropolitan counties of the Great Plains region from 1950 to 1990. Findings indicate that county level population declined for every decade except the 1970 turnaround decade, and the greatest losses were in completely rural nonadjacent counties. The civilian labor force declined for all but the 1970 decade, when there was a substantial increase due to increased nonmetro manufacturing and the baby boom cohorts reaching labor force age. Retail/wholesale labor force increased in every decade except the 1980s. However, regression analysis found a positive and highly significant relationship between population change and retail/wholesale employment change. For this region, population decline is a major contributor to decline in the retail/wholesale employment sector at the county level. Preliminary data from the 1990–1996 period indicate a population and labor force rebound from the 1980s. However, as in the 1980s, gains are most likely concentrated in a small number of mainly urban nonadjacent counties.     

Social Disorganization Theory and the Contextual Nature of Crime in Nonmetropolitan Counties*

Abstract This research explores violent and property crime rates in nonmetropolitan counties. It is argued that crime rates are lower in these counties because of higher levels of social integration. We test the hypothesis that predictors of crime from social disorganization theory exert different effects on violent and property crimes at different levels of population change in nonmetropolitan counties. We use a spatial lag regression model to predict the 1989–1991 average violent and property crime rates for these counties, taken from the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR). The results show that a factor‐analyzed index of resource disadvantage (poverty rate, income inequality, unemployment, percent female‐headed households) has different effects on both violent and property crime at different levels of population change in nonmetropolitan counties. Contrary to expectations, we find that resource disadvantage exerts a greater positive effect on both violent and property crimes in nonmetropolitan counties that lost population between 1980 and 1990. Implications for theory and research are discussed.     

The Recent Revival of Widespread Population Growth in Nonmetropolitan Areas of the United States1

Abstract Population growth was widespread in nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) areas of the United States during the early 1990s. More than 64 percent of the 2,277 nonmetro counties gained population between 1990 and 1992, compared with only 45 percent in the 1980s. The nonmetro population still grew at a slower pace than did the metropolitan population, but the gap was much narrower than during the 1980s. Net migration gains accounted for 43 percent of the total estimated nonmetro population increase of 879,000 between 1990 and 1992. These findings suggest it is premature to conclude that the renewed population growth in nonmetro areas first noted in the 1970s has ended.     

Rural Depopulation: Growth and Decline Processes over the Past Century

This article highlights the rise and geographic spread of depopulation in rural America over the past century. “Depopulation” refers to chronic population losses that prevent counties from returning to an earlier period of peak population size. In this article, we identify 746 depopulating counties—mostly nonmetropolitan—representing 24 percent of all U.S. counties. More than 46 percent of remote rural counties are depopulating compared to 24 percent of the adjacent nonmetropolitan counties and just 6 percent of metropolitan counties. Rural county populations often peaked in size during the 1940s and 1950s, especially in the agricultural heartland. Depopulation today reflects a complex interplay of chronic net out‐migration and natural decrease that is rooted in the past. Depopulation not only is a direct result of persistent out‐migration but also reflects large second‐order effects expressed in declining fertility and rising mortality (usually associated with population aging). Depopulation has become a signature demographic phenomenon in broad regions of rural America.     

Nonmetropolitan Population Change in the Mountain West: 1970–1995

Abstract Current research on nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) population change shows that, to date, the 1990s are reminiscent of the 1970s rather than the 1980s. Nonmetro areas, including the Mountain West, are again gaining population through increases in net migration. Over the past several years, subareas within the Mountain West have experienced some of the fastest rates of population growth and economic expansion in the United States. Current growth patterns in the Mountain West are distinct from those in both the 1970s “rural renaissance” and the 1980s “nonmetro contraction” periods. Nonmetro counties in the Mountain West are growing at about the same rate as metropolitan (metro) counties, and although the growth rate is slower now than in the 1970s, more counties are participating in the growth. These findings support earlier research suggesting that nonmetro growth may not be ending.     

Population Redistribution Trends in Nonmetropolitan America, 2010 to 2021☆

Given the turbulent conditions of the early 21st century and the release of data from the 2020 Census, it is an appropriate time to examine contemporary population redistribution trends in nonmetropolitan America. Analysis centers on the major demographic components of population change: migration; and natural increase. The analysis demonstrates that the turbulent economic, social, and now epidemiological conditions of recent years altered traditional demographic trends in nonmetropolitan America. For the first time in history, nonmetropolitan America lost population between 2010 and 2020 because of shifts in migration trends and diminishing natural increase. In contrast, post-censal population estimates suggest that nonmetropolitan population gains exceeded those in metropolitan areas for the first time in 50 years between 2020 and 2021. The recent widespread nonmetropolitan population increases are the result of substantial net migration gains that offset the growing natural decrease fostered by COVID-19. Sustained net migration gains in nonmetro areas provides a demographic lifeline to many counties that would otherwise face depopulation because of accelerating natural decrease. Whether these migration patterns can be sustained remains to be seen.     

Changing Economic Opportunities,Family Structure,and Poverty in Rural Areas1

Abstract Instrustrial restructuring in the 1980s ushered in a new pattern of growing economic diversity over geographic space. The objective of this study is to examine the extent and etiology of changing spatial inequality between and within metropolitan (metro) and nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) areas, as measured by increasing or decreasing county poverty rates. Results based on data from the 1980 and 1990 census summary tape files suggest several conclusions. First, poverty rates increased more rapidly in nonmetro than metro counties during the 1980s; historical patterns of metro-nonmetro economic convergence slowed over the past decade. Second, poverty rates tended to decline in nonmetro counties with traditionally high rates of poverty, thus providing counter-evidence to arguments suggesting that the gap between traditionally poor and nonpoor nonmetro counties has widened. Third, spatial differences in poverty rates and relative increases in county poverty rates over the 1980s were most strongly associated with women's employment and headship status. The results raise questions about the extent to which traditional rural economic development strategies address the potentially deleterious economic effects of rising percentages of poor female-headed families.     

Continuity and Change in Rural Migration Patterns, 1950–1995*

Abstract During the past several decades, rural America has experienced turbulent demographic change. We examine rural age‐specific migration data for 1950 to 1995 to ascertain whether the numerous economic, social, and technological factors buffeting nonmetropolitan America have altered migration patterns across age groups and types of counties. Both continuity and change are evident in the analysis. We find differentiation in the migration profiles of certain specialized types of rural counties, as well as temporal variability from decade to decade. No clear longitudinal trend in migration patterns is present, however. In fact, an underlying continuity in age‐specific trends has endured through good times and bad.     

Recent Trends in Metropolitan-Nonmetropolitan Fertility1

Abstract Although decline and convergence in metropolitan (metro) and nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) fertility levels are longterm trends, a detailed analysis of the period since 1970 shows a pattern of exceptions and conditions which underscore the need for giving continued attention to differences by residence. There was a divergence of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan fertility rates in the 1970–1980 decade, but the renewed convergence since 1980 has made an important contribution to the turnaround reversal of metropolitan-nonmetropolitan population change. This recent rate convergence is not a simple coming together of the age-specific rates, but the balancing of changes in opposite directions for younger and older women. Metro-nonmetro differences widened in favor of nonmetro for women 20–24 years of age and in favor of metro for women over 30 years of age. The apparent catching up of postponed first and second births is found primarily among metropolitan women over 30 years of age.     

Recent Immigrant Settlement in the Nonmetropolitan United States: Evidence from Internal Census Data*

Abstract In the 1990s, studies have documented widespread growth of immigrants in U.S. communities not known as common destinations in the past. This trend has fueled population growth in some nonmetropolitan areas and offset population decline in other areas. In this paper, we examine the implications of recent foreign born in-migration for rural America. Our focus is on a collection of 59 nonmetropolitan counties where growth in foreign born stock offset declines in U.S. native population and resulted in increased local population by 2000. To understand these nonmetropolitan offset counties, we use confidential Census Bureau data that offer us the detailed geography and larger sample size needed to closely examine spatial shifts in the foreign born population, especially those recently arrived. Our findings illustrate dramatic compositional shifts in the populations of these areas, and suggest new demographic complexity in nonmetropolitan areas in the 21^st century.     

Changing Income Inequality in Nonmetropolitan Counties, 1980 to 1990*

Abstract Income inequality has been increasing across the United States, but little is known about changing income inequality in nonmetropolitan counties. Data from the 1980 and 1990 Summary Tape Files of the U.S. Census of Population and Housing are used to estimate ordinary least squares models of change in income inequality. Household income inequality increased in a smaller share of nonmetro than metro counties from 1980 to 1990, and increases in income inequality were influenced more strongly by economic restructuring in nonmetro than in metro counties. Other factors, such as change in household structure, demographic composition, and labor supply and job quality, were generally similar in affecting income inequality in nonmetro and metro counties. The greater importance of economic restructuring in nonmetro counties indicates the lesser diversity and smaller size of local economies, and their greater vulnerability to forces of economic restructuring.     

Factors Associated with the Development of Nonmetropolitan Growth Nodes in Producer Services Industries, 1980–1990*

Abstract Over the 1980–1990 period, employment in producer services industries in the nonmetropolitan United States increased substantially. This growth resulted in the development of nonmetropolitan growth nodes in producer services industries. A growth node refers to a nonmetropolitan area that contains a greater than average concentration of employment in a particular industry sector relative to other nonmetropolitan areas. Moreover, this industry concentration not only increases over time, but also represents an important source of employment growth within the area. With nonmetropolitan counties as the spatial unit of analysis, 317 growth nodes in producer services industries are identified for the 1980–1990 period. Access to workers with clerical and administrative support skills, access to highly educated workers, higher earnings per employed worker, access to recreational amenities, and proximity to metropolitan areas were associated with the development of nonmetropolitan growth nodes in producer services industries during this period.     

Residence and Income Inequality: Effects on Mortality Among U.S. Counties

Abstract Despite lower average incomes, greater percentages living in poverty, lower levels of health insurance, less preventive health care, and poorer health status, nonmetropolitan residents have been found to experience lower mortality than their metropolitan counterparts. Several pathways through which residence influences mortality have been proposed. The objective of this study is to examine the effects of income inequality on residential differentials in mortality. Using data from the Compressed Mortality File for counties in the coterminous United States for 1990, we estimate weighted least squares models of total mortality for 3,067 counties, and separately for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties. Mortality is lower in nonmetropolitan counties than in metropolitan counties, once rates are standardized for age, sex, and race. Moreover, income inequality exerts stronger effects in nonmetro counties, an effect that persists when per capita income, median household size, and racial composition are controlled. The percentage of the population that is black exerts an independent effect on mortality in both metro and non‐metro counties.     

Commuting and the rural-urban hierarchy

The purpose of this paper is to consider the relation between commuting and the settlement structure, with particular attention to rural and nonmetropolitan areas. I examined commuting flows between metropolitan central cities, other metropolitan areas, nonmetropolitan places with more than 10,000 people, those with 2500–10000 people, and other rural areas. Despite the deconcentration of population, industry and trade that was especially marked in the 1970s, commuting in 1980 was predominantly toward larger places in the ruralurban hierarchy, and particularly from rural areas and the other metropolitan category to cities. Overall levels of commuting were high, and most were within either nonmetropolitan or metropolitan areas. Smaller nonmetropolitan places particularly had high proportions of both in- and out-commuters. Differences in commuting flows by gender, socioeconomic status and industry were small, but generally in the directions expected on the basis of prior research. The findings reveal a high degree of work-residence interdependence among settlement units in nonmetropolitan America, with social and economic differences in commuting flows representing an important aspect of community structure.     

Child Poverty and the Changing Rural Family1

Abstract Our main objective is to give demographic perspective to changes since 1960 in the comparative economic circumstances of non-metropolitan and metropolitan children. Specifically, we examine absolute and relative poverty rates using child records from the 1960, 1970, and 1980 Public Use Microdata Samples and from the 1990 March annual demographic file of the Current Population Survey. Results reveal that more than one-in-five nonmetropolitan children today are poor, an increasing proportion are deeply impoverished, and a growing share are living in families with incomes lagging standards typical of the average American family. Changes in family structure accounted for roughly 60 percent of the increase in nonmetropolitan child poverty during the 1980s. Positive economic effects associated with increasing female employment, rising education levels, and declining family size in nonmetropolitan areas were more than offset by the deleterious effects of changing family structure. And the persistently higher rates of nonmetropolitan than metropolitan child poverty cannot be explained away by compositional differences in parental employment patterns, educational levels, or family size. Our results suggest that recent changes in family formation and structure cannot be disassociated from the changing economic welfare of children, especially for those living in nonmetropolitan America.     

Suburban Sprawl,Regional Diffusion,and the Fate of Small Retailers in a Large Retail Environment, 1977–1996

Abstract

Research on the decline of public life in the United States has largely overlooked the role of Main Street retailers that provide public spaces for the maintenance of informal social ties. A central factor shaping the viability of small retailers is the development of big box chain stores that offer one-stop shopping and price out smaller competitors. Although prior studies have considered the transition from small to large retailers as a national phenomenon, arguing for the importance of place effects, we document the spatial variation in this process for nonmetropolitan counties in the United States. We hypothesize that the economic downturns in agriculture and manufacturing during the 1980s, combined with suburban sprawl into nonmetropolitan counties, facilitated the decline of small retailing in specific locales. Employing data from the 1977–1996 U.S. County Business Patterns, we test our hypotheses concerning the spatial variability in the decline of small retailing. Our results point to a marked decline in the number of establishments and employment in selected retail industries for nonmetropolitan counties near metropolitan areas in the South, Midwest, and West. These findings highlight the importance of considering local business enterprises as an important dimension of public life and local leadership in community affairs. We conclude our study by outlining the social consequences of the decline of small retail activity and suggest directions for future research.     

Nonmetropolitan Residential Segregation Revisited

Abstract Nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) residential segregation in 1990 and change in the preceding decade have received insufficient attention. A set of empirical hypotheses are derived and assessed using nonmetro and metropolitan (metro) counties in Texas. Places in nonmetro counties were more segregated than places in metro counties in 1990 as in 1980. Substantial declines in segregation occurred in both nonmetro and metro places but were largest in growing places in nonmetro counties. An analysis controlling for other determinants of segregation supports the premise that population change was a major determinant of 1980–1990 change in segregation. Implications for nonmetro areas in the 1990s are discussed.     

Determinants of 1980 to 1990 Net Migration in Texas Counties: The Role of Sustenance Specialization and Dominance in International Ecosystems

Abstract Patterns of 1980–1990 migration differ markedly from those of the 1970s but they have received little conceptual or empirical analysis because of limited data and because their diversity has resisted theoretical generalization. An expanded human ecological perspective incorporating international dimensions is hypothesized to explain differentials in migration during the 1980s. Counties with key functions which operate in international ecosystems in which the United States is dominant are hypothesized to control more resources and to have the highest net inmigration. Hypotheses are tested using regression analyses of 1980–1990 net migration for Texas' 254 counties. The results generally confirm that key functional activities were related to migration but less so in nonmetropolitan areas. Implications for rural development and for further research are discussed.     

Continuities in Size of Place Preferences in the United States, 1972–19921

Abstract The directions of net migration and population redistribution in the U.S. have switched from nonmetropolitan deconcentration during the 1970s, to metropolitan concentration during the 1980s, and back to deconcentration once again in the early 1990s. The complex causes of these distribution shifts are thought to involve both structural reconfigurations of economic activities that affect the location of opportunities and residential preferences that are tied more closely to amenities and quality of life considerations. This paper uses comparable data from three representative sample surveys of the U.S. population to update and extend earlier research on the preferential basis of redistribution trends. Our analysis does not support the view that shifts in the direction of residential preferences during 1972–1992 tend to coincide with shifts in metropolitan-nonmetropolitan net migration and population redistribution. Rather, a consistent finding across all three surveys is that most people prefer their current residence type, and those who do not are almost twice as likely to prefer lower rather than higher density settings. These findings support the importance of preferences to explanations of recent population trends, but these preferences are not in isolation from the economic contexts in which they occur.