决策评价系统数学模型设计及实现

本文运用层次分析法(AHP)、调整判断矩阵、建立模糊关系矩阵等给出了通用多层次、多目标综合决策评价系统数学模型。主要步骤是建立系统层次结构模型,构建群组决策两两判断矩阵,计算单层次排序权重和针对评价目标的层次总排序权重,最终得到评价结果。为决策评价系统设计提出完整、高效和可行的解决方案。     

基于群决策的供应链敏捷度的研究

供应链必须具备一定的敏捷性,才能更好地满足客户的需求.供应链战略管理的本质就是管理供应链的敏捷性,使供应链的敏捷度能够满足企业竞争战略的要求.本文对影响供应链敏捷度的四个要素进行了分析,运用群决策理论和层次分析法建立了供应链敏捷度管理目标的模型,最后用一个实例说明了模型的应用.     

一种多层群组决策方法及其灵敏度分析

对日常生活中常见的一种多层群组决策问题给出了相应的处理方法,进行了参数灵敏度分析,可用于解决实际问题     

基于粗糙集理论的城市购房决策

购房的决策问题是一个需要综合考虑多因素的决策问题。购房者在对不同楼盘进行筛选、比较的时候,除了可以直接对影响因素进行主观赋权之外,还可以充分利用历史数据,从客观上对影响决策的各因素进行合理、科学地分析。而粗糙集理论能有效地对历史数据进行处理,在客观上确定属性重要性。然后结合具体环境,构造各因素间的两两比较判断矩阵,得到主观权重,综合主客观权重最后得到综合权重,为购房决策提供依据。     

修正模糊互补判断矩阵一致性的一种新方法

本文首先对一个常用的检验互补判断矩阵一致性标准作了简化,对任一模糊互补矩阵构造相应的模糊一致矩阵,在此基础上给出了一种一致性调整的新方法,并证明了此方法的收敛性.最后用一个算例说明这种调整方法的应用.     

一种基于区间数判断矩阵的群决策新方法

针对基于区间数判断矩阵的群决策问题,提出了一种群决策新方法.借助于集值统计原理,构造了与区间数判断矩阵群信息等价的具有一定可靠度的确定数判断矩阵,建立了计算这类群信息集结值可靠度的模型,运用和积法对所得新判断矩阵进行处理,得到了一种简便的方案排序方法.最后,通过一个算例验证了该方法的有效性和实用性.     

交互式群组决策问题的一种Pareto最优求解算法

随着企业电子商务的实现,交互式群组决策问题已经演变成MAS中多Agent决策和谈判问题,需要有新的群组决策方法.本文给出了不完全信息下交互式群组决策问题的一种基于梯度的Pareto最优求解算法,并给出了它的数学描述和算例,结果表明,这一方法适宜求解电子商务环境下的多Agent决策和谈判问题.     

对层次分析法的认识

本文从ＡＨＰ法的几个著名的不保序的便子入手，分析了ＡＨＰ的计算过程，给出了其相对测量保权不保序，“绝对测量”保序不保权，准则的变化和方案的变化在概念上是不同的，Ｓａａｔｙ的绝对测量方法是一个将客观标准与主观评分相分离的一种思路的观点。     

一种新的梯形模糊数互补判断矩阵的排序方法

研究了决策信息以梯形模糊数互补判断矩阵形式给出的有限方案决策问题。首先利用COWA算子,引入期望值函数概念对梯形模糊数来排序,排序结果可以根据决策者的乐观程度进行调节,更加合理。然后基于期望值函数,把梯形模糊数互补判断矩阵转化期望值互补判断矩阵进行排序,并利用决策者的乐观程度对排序结果进行敏感性分析。最后通过算例说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

基于不同粒度语言判断矩阵的多属性群决策方法

针对具有不同粒度语言判断矩阵形式的偏好信息的多属性群决策问题,首先给出了不同粒度语言转换的准则,给出了将不同粒度语言短语一致化的函数及其性质,并进而提出了基于不同粒度语言判断矩阵的多属性群决策方法.该方法不仅简洁、直观,且不会发生信息丢失,所得的决策结果较为精确、合理,最后通过算例对方法的实用性和有效性进行了说明.     

A Risk-Based Approach to Setting Priorities in Protecting Bridges Against Terrorist Attacks

This article presents an approach to the problem of terrorism risk assessment and management by adapting the framework of the risk filtering, ranking, and management method. The assessment is conducted at two levels: (1) the system level, and (2) the asset-specific level. The system-level risk assessment attempts to identify and prioritize critical infrastructures from an inventory of system assets. The definition of critical infrastructures offered by Presidential Decision Directive 63 was used to determine the set of attributes to identify critical assets--categorized according to national, regional, and local impact. An example application is demonstrated using information from the Federal Highway Administration National Bridge Inventory for the State of Virginia. Conversely, the asset-specific risk assessment performs an in-depth analysis of the threats and vulnerabilities of a specific critical infrastructure. An illustration is presented to offer some insights in risk scenario identification and prioritization, multiobjective evaluation of management options, and extreme-event analysis for critical infrastructure protection.     

基于两类残缺偏好信息的交互式群决策方法研究

提出不同残缺偏好信息的交互式群决策方法。利用矩阵元素之间的可达性关系,给出区间数判断矩阵残缺元素的确定方法。定义了不同偏好信息的群体满意度,基于群体判断与决策个体判断之问的偏离程度,与决策者进行交互,使得决策者的意见尽可能协调一致。根据修正意见求解得到方案排序,并通过算例说明方法的有效性。     

基于模糊判断矩阵的群决策方法研究

对多个决策者给出的偏好信息的有效集结是群决策过程的重要问题之一.不同类型的偏好信息有不同的集结方法.基于模糊判断矩阵一致性的定义,提出一种加权集结方法的最优化模型,从而得到群决策中一类模糊判断矩阵的集结方法,并进一步分析和研究群组判断矩阵与各决策者给出的判断矩阵之间关系的一些重要性质.     

合作联盟群决策的德尔非法进化博弈论新解读

传统群体决策理论对群体决策一致性的集结忽视了决策者的不完全理性和对方案的学习改进以及谈判协调能力,与现实差距较大.本文提出并分析了一种基于进化博弈思想的改进的德尔非法,例举了一个三方成员通过改进的德尔非法决策程序,不断学习调整,最终达成一致的群博弈算例.这一群决策机制对企业间合作联盟的决策具有很逼真的揭示和说明,反映了群体决策实际是联盟成员有机互动的过程.     

群决策中三端点语言和互补偏好信息的转化及集结研究

研究了群决策中三端点语言判断矩阵和三端点互补判断矩阵的集结方法。基于两类判断标度的内涵,研究了两种三端点偏好形式相互转化的数学方式;从次序一致性和完全一致性角度,分析了偏好形式转化过程中的信息变化情况;提出了基于灰色关联度的群体一致度测算方法,研究了决策者权重确定方法,进而提出了两类三端点偏好的集结方法,文后通过算例说明了方法的应用步骤。     

Multicriteria Decision Analysis: A Comprehensive Decision Approach for Management of Contaminated Sediments

Contaminated sediments and other sites present a difficult challenge for environmental decisionmakers. They are typically slow to recover or attenuate naturally, may involve multiple regulatory agencies and stakeholder groups, and engender multiple toxicological and ecotoxicological risks. While environmental decision-making strategies over the last several decades have evolved into increasingly more sophisticated, information-intensive, and complex approaches, there remains considerable dissatisfaction among business, industry, and the public with existing management strategies. Consequently, contaminated sediments and materials are the subject of intense technology development, such as beneficial reuse or in situ treatment. However, current decision analysis approaches, such as comparative risk assessment, benefit-cost analysis, and life cycle assessment, do not offer a comprehensive approach for incorporating the varied types of information and multiple stakeholder and public views that must typically be brought to bear when new technologies are under consideration. Alternatively, multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) offers a scientifically sound decision framework for management of contaminated materials or sites where stakeholder participation is of crucial concern and criteria such as economics, environmental impacts, safety, and risk cannot be easily condensed into simple monetary expressions. This article brings together a multidisciplinary review of existing decision-making approaches at regulatory agencies in the United States and Europe and synthesizes state-of-the-art research in MCDA methods applicable to the assessment of contaminated sediment management technologies. Additionally, it tests an MCDA approach for coupling expert judgment and stakeholder values in a hypothetical contaminated sediments management case study wherein MCDA is used as a tool for testing stakeholder responses to and improving expert assessment of innovative contaminated sediments technologies.     

A Computerized Approach to Decision Process Tracing for Decision Support System Design*

We propose the use of computerized process tracing (CPT) tools as an appropriate approach for monitoring the information acquisition and evaluation phase of specific decision processes. CPT tools are unobtrusive and seem particularly relevant for evaluating certain decision tasks that may be supported by decision support systems (DSS). CPT tools can be an important component of DSS development. An information systems research taxonomy developed by previous researchers [29] [36] is used to position research work involving the methodology of CPT. Using a critique suggested by Libby [28], CPT tools are evaluated and compared to alternative process tracing tools. A brief empirical example using CPT is provided, and future uses relative to DSS are suggested. The appendix includes an example of a specific CPT tool.