Vector representation of migration streams among selected state economic areas during 1955 to 1960

This paper uses in-migration, out-migration, and net migration vectors to measure and portray the migration streams occurring between April 1, 1955, and April 1, 1960, for all persons five years old and over on April 1, 1960, among 38 contiguous state economic areas (SEA's) in Oklahoma, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, Texas, and New Mexico. Both rectangular and polar coordinates were employed in computing three different types of vector representations. First, migration vectors for each SEA, expressed in total people-miles of in-movement, out-movement, and net movement represent the resultant direction of movement and the total people-miles of movement. Second, in- and out-migration vectors of the total people-miles of movement, with the widths of the vectors drawn proportional to the number of migrants, show the total size of each migration stream for each SEA, the resultant direction of movement, and the distance moved in total people-miles of movement. p ]Third, in- and out-migration vectors of the average distances moved to and from each SEA, with the widths of the vectors drawn proportional to the number of migrants, show the magnitude of movement, the average distance moved per migrant, and the resultant direction of movement. This study shows that migration vectors based upon polar coordinates are more accurate than the migration vectors based upon rectangular coordinates. Also, the in- and out-migration vectors are superior to net migration vectors in representing migratory streams among geographic areas.     

Measuring spatial focusing in a migration system

Equality indexes used in other geographical contexts may be used to gauge the degree of spatial focusing in an entire migration system or within the gross in- and out-migration fields of specific regions. They provide useful indicators of overall shifts in the patterns of interregional migration and can help give insight into the population redistributive roles played by specific regions. Perhaps the most common equality index used to measure income distribution is the Gini coefficient, yet it appears almost never to have been applied in migration research. In this paper we set forth a variety of Gini indexes to be used for different migration analyses and illustrate their application with recent data on U.S. interstate movements. We argue that the Gini index provides some singularly useful insights that differ from those afforded by other measures more commonly found to date in the migration analyst’ s toolkit.     

Effects of changes in rainfall and temperature on age- and sex-specific patterns of rural-urban migration in sub-Saharan Africa

We evaluate how changes in weather patterns affected rural-urban migration across 41 sub-Saharan African countries, by age and sex, over the 1980–2015 period. We combine recent age- and sex-specific estimates of net rural-urban migration with historical data on rainfall and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (CRU). We also compare standard unweighted estimates of rainfall and temperature to estimates weighted by the proportion of the country’s total rural population in the CRU grid. Results show that rural out-migration of young adults is the most sensitive to shifts in weather patterns, with lower rainfall, lower variability in rainfall, and higher temperatures increasing subsequent rural out-migration—though the last of these is not observed in weighted models. The strength of these effects has grown stronger over time for 20–24 year olds, though weaker above age 30. In contrast, increasing temperature variability is associated with a higher rural in-migration of children (0–9) and older adults (55–64). Gender differences in these effects are minimal and concentrated in areas which experienced heavy reductions in rainfall.

     

Indigenous labor supply,sustenance organization,and population redistribution in nonmetropolitan america: An extension of the ecological theory of migration

The ecological theory of migration asserts that change in sustenance organization, to the extent that it produces changes in the opportunities for living, necessitates a change in population size. Migration may thus be viewed as a demographic response to the population’s need to reestablish a balance between its size and sustenance organization, thus attaining its best possible living standard. However, the levels of net in- or out-migration needed to restore the balance should be affected by the degree of positive or negative growth of the indigenous labor force population. We thus test the hypothesis that changes in opportunities for living will be balanced by net changes in the number of persons in the labor force, where this is a function of both indigenous labor supply and net migration.     

Long-term multivariate prediction of migration patterns

In- and out-migration rates of 56 Israeli cities with a population of over 5000 were predicted for a five-year period (1977–1981), on the basis of four 1976 social indicators: crime rate, percent unemployment, population size and distance from a major metropolitan center. Rather than employ independent correlation coefficients, the four indicators were entered as predictors into regression equations with in- and out-migration rates serving as the dependent variable. The analytic methods are compared and the clear advantages of the regression method emerge. None of the indicators reliably predicted in-migration. Crime consistently predicted out-migration. Distance and unemployment each entered into three of the prediction models.     

Metropolitan migration efficiency

The migration efficiency ratio of an area is defined as the net migration of the area (in-migrants minus out-migrants) divided by the total number of moves whose origin or destination is that area (in-migrants plus out-migrants) multiplied by 100. This paper investigates variations in migration efficiency from 1955 to 1960 among Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas with populations of 250,000 or more. Regional variation in migration efficiency was evident, ranging from an average of ?9.7 in the Northeast to 19.6 for SMSA’s in the Western region. Nonwhites tended to have higher migration efficiency than whites. Rapidly growing metropolitan areas had higher migration efficiency ratios than areas growing at a lower rate or losing population. The educational level of a metropolitan area, as measured by the percent of the population 25 years old or over with at least a high school education, was positively related to migration efficiency. The composition of the migrant population, both in- and outmigrants for a given area, was related to the value of the migration efficiency ratio. If the migrant population contained a large proportion of persons aged 20–34, migration efficiency was low, regardless of the direction of the major migration stream. Region was found to have a major effect. Variables that had a strong and positive relationship with migration efficiency in one region were usually found to have no relation, or a negative relation, with it in other areas. Obviously, further research is needed for the identification of factors producing these strong regional effects.     

Effects of agricultural development policies on migration in peninsular Malaysia

State planning plays a central role in Malaysia's social and economic development. The government's rural development policies are designed to promote agricultural incomes and help counterbalance ethnic inequalities. The Federal Land Development Authority (FELDA) implements one of the internationally most successful land development and resettlement programs. In this article, we quantify the impact of FELDA settlements on local out-migration rates, linking macro and micro approaches and using data from the Malaysian Family Life Survey, national censuses, and other sources. A model of instantaneous migration rates specifies an individual's migration rate as a function of individual-level sociodemographic characteristics, the level of urbanization of the origin and destination, and the extent of rural development at the district of current residence. Our results show that in the late 1960s and early 1970s, the existence of rural development centers in a district reduced the levels of out-migration to pre-1965 levels.     

Migration of the poor

One aspect of migration which has been largely overlooked by researchers is the migration of people receiving public assistance benefits. The migration, or lack of migration, of these people has clear policy implications. Poor people put numerous demands on the locality where they reside, including demands for welfare benefits. The research presented in this paper reveals that movers receiving AFDC payments are able to improve their economic standing more than those who do not move. It is also shown that states with a net in-migration of public assistance recipients but net out-migration of non-recipients do have higher benefit levels than states with net out-migration of recipients and net in-migration of non-recipients. Employment and income data do not show the same differences between the state types.     

Social factors as predictors of internal migration patterns in Israel

The influence of 1975 crime and poverty-dependence factor scores on 1976–1980 internal migration rates in Israel was studied. Lag correlations between the two factor scores and in and out migration revealed that poverty-dependence was strongly and negatively related to in-migration and moderately and negatively related to out-migration. No relationship was found between crime and in-migration over the five year period, but a strong positive relationship was indicated between crime and outmigration. It was thus shown that social indicators such as crime and poverty-dependence revealed lasting effects on migration rates, and may be an aid to social planners.     

Temporal and spatial variation in age-specific net migration in the United States

As fertility differences in the United States diminish, population redistribution trends are increasingly dependent on migration. This research used newly developed county-level age-specific net migration estimates for the 1990s, supplemented with longitudinal age-specific migration data spanning the prior 40 years, to ascertain whether there are clear longitudinal trends in age-specific net migration and to determine if there is spatial clustering in the migration patterns. The analysis confirmed the continuation into the 1990s of distinct net migration "signature patterns" for most types of counties, although there was temporal variation in the overall volume of migration across the five decades. A spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed large, geographically contiguous regions of net in-migration (in particular, Florida and the Southwest) and geographically contiguous regions of net out-migration (the Great Plains, in particular) that persisted over time. Yet the patterns of spatial concentration and fragmentation over time in these migration data demonstrate the relevance of this "neighborhood" approach to understanding spatiotemporal change in migration.     

The impact of U.S. immigration upon internal migration

The potential adverse effect of immigrants on job opportunities for natives continues to influence debate about immigration policy in the United States. Many studies have examined wage and employment outcomes; by contrast, we examine internal migration. We ask whether or not natives are more likely to depart from or less likely to move to metropolitan areas with high concentrations of immigrants. After controlling for other influences on migration, we find that metropolitan areas with higher concentrations of immigrants have only slightly lower rates of inmigration of natives. Such metropolitan areas also exhibit slightly lower rates of out-migration, contrary to expectation. These results suggest that the effect of immigrants on labor market redistribution of natives is modest.Research reported here was supported by a grant from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. We would like to thank Kofi Benefo for helpful comments.     

Recovery migration to the City of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: a migration systems approach

Hurricane Katrina’s effect on the population of the City of New Orleans provides a model of how severe weather events, which are likely to increase in frequency and strength as the climate warms, might affect other large coastal cities. Our research focuses on changes in the migration system—defined as the system of ties between Orleans Parish and all other U.S. counties—between the pre-disaster (1999–2004) and recovery (2007–2009) periods. Using Internal Revenue Service county-to-county migration flow data, we find that in the recovery period, Orleans Parish increased the number of migration ties with and received larger migration flows from nearby counties in the Gulf of Mexico coastal region, thereby spatially concentrating and intensifying the in-migration dimension of this predominantly urban system, while the out-migration dimension contracted and had smaller flows. We interpret these changes as the migration system relying on its strongest ties to nearby and less-damaged counties to generate recovery in-migration.     

Gender and migration from Albania

This article examines the dynamics and causes of the shift in the gender composition of migration, and more particularly, in women’s access to migration opportunities and decision-making. Our analysis focuses on Albania, a natural laboratory for studying international migration where out-migration was essentially nonexistent from the end of World War II to the end of the 1980s. Interest in the Albanian case is heightened because of the complex layers of inequality existing at the time when migration began: relatively low levels of inequality within the labor market and educational system—a product of the Communist era—while household relations remained heavily steeped in tradition and patriarchy. We use micro-level data from the Albania 2005 Living Standards Measurement Study, including migration histories for family members since migration began. Based on discrete-time hazard models, the analysis shows a dramatic increase in male migration and a gradual and uneven expansion of the female proportion of this international migration. Female migration, which is shown to be strongly associated with education, wealth, and social capital, appears responsive to economic incentives and constraints. Using information on the dependency of female migration to the household demographic structure as well as the sensitivity of female migration to household-level shocks, we show how household-level constraints and incentives affect male and female migration differently. Throughout this period, however, women’s migration behavior appears more directly aligned with household-level factors, and there is little evidence to suggest that increased female migration signals rising behavioral independence among Albanian women.     

Associations between overseas,intra-urban and internal migration dynamics in Sydney, 1976–91

Between 1976 and 1991 metropolitan Sydney experienced unprecedented internal migration losses to other states and coastal regions of New South Wales. Levels of overseas immigration were also high and housing costs increased markedly, especially between 1986 and 1991. This paper investigates spatial statistical associations between overseas in-migration rates and internal migration loss within Sydney and between housing costs in Sydney and internal migration outflows. The hypothesis was that housing cost changes and overseas migration contributed additively to migration losses from the metropolis. A complementary analysis of the relationship between migration and housing cost changes is also undertaken. There was a strong positive association between overseas in-migration and intra-urban out-migration and a strong negative spatial association between overseas in-migration and internal out-migration. In consequence, housing cost associations with internal migration loss were found, although not all were in the expected direction. There were stronger associations between housing factors and intra-urban migration. The integration of metropolitan Sydney and Australia into the ‘Pacific rim’ economy is examined with reference to wider explanations of house cost changes and migration flows.     

Bombay migration study: A pilot analysis of migration to an Asian metropolis

This paper reports on a pilot study of migration to Greater Bombay, initiated on the recommendation of the Population Commission of United Nations, and utilizes both published tables from the 1961 Census of India and a set of specially prepared tables from the same census. Migrants were defined by birthplace and cross-classified by age and duration of residence in Bombay.Data (1901-61) on net migration (obtained from successive age-sex distributions) are analyzed in terms of underlying trends to give historical perspective to the analysis of recent data with special emphasis on changes in industrial and occupotiona structure.For the 1951-61 decade, the extensiveness of out-migration of former in-migrants, its age-sex selectivity, and its high incidence among recent migrants are demonstrated. As is true elsewhere, migration to Bombay is shown to be highly selective for ages of maximum economic activity. Migration streams to Bombay were preponderantly male, and, among males, the married segment predominated. The propensity to migrate was unusually high among minority religious groups. As to educational level, migrants were superior to the general population at origin but inferior to nonmigrants residing in Bombay. The work participation rates of migrants were higher for every age group than for resident nonmigrants; the proportion of employees was higher; and there was evidence of migrant concentration in industries and occupations requiring less skill, less education, and less capital than was true of nonmigrants. There were significant tendencies toward "division of labor" among various migration streams on the basis of skills and abilities acquired not only by formal education but also through tradition and precept. From the standpoint of the promotion of social change, the large volume (and selectivity) of reverse or return migration is especially note-worthy.The paper concludes with a methodological evaluation of the reliability and validity of duration-of-residence data and indicates that the relatively simple techniques of enumeration and tabulation utilized in this pilot study may have wide applicability in other developing countries.     

Changing patterns of migration between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas in the United States: Recent evidence

Data from the 1975 Current Population Survey confirm that, during 1970–1975, there was a reversal of the traditional net migration stream between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas in the United States. During this period, there was net in-migration of 1,600,000 persons to nonmetropolitan areas, in contrast to net out-migration of 350,000 persons from these areas in 1965–1970. Reversal was caused by a 12 percent decrease in the number of nonmetropolitan out-migrants and a 23 percent increase in the number of SMSA residents moving to nonmetropolitan territory over 1965–1970 levels. While some changes in the size of migration streams were due to changes in age structures and population bases in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, they were caused primarily by real shifts in outmigration propensities at practically all ages in both areas.     

Using gross migration data compiled from the social security sample file

A study by Donald Pursell (1972), which examines migration data compiled from the one-percent sample file of the Social Security Administration, is discussed in this paper. An important feature of the data which is neglected by Pursell is pointed out, and the Pursell results are compared with findings obtained using somewhat different treatments of the social security data. The Pursell conclusion that out-migration is negatively related to employment growth is supported by the alternative tests.     

Environmental hazard and migration intentions in a coastal area in Ghana: a case of sea flooding

Recently, there has been significant debate about whether ‘environmental migration’ can constitute a form of adaptation to environmental change, as opposed to forced or flight migration. The Foresight Report on Migration and Environmental Change (2011) suggested environmental factors are one driver of migration, as well as political, social, economic and demographic drivers, and that—under the right conditions—migration can be a form of adaptation to changing climatic conditions. However, this is dependent on migrants having adequate social and financial capital to undertake beneficial types of migration; it further argues that environmental change may result in ‘trapped populations’ whereby people who lack the necessary resources to re-establish livelihoods elsewhere may be left exposed to increasingly severe environmental shocks and stresses in situ. Research on the climate-migration nexus in West Africa has largely focused on out-migration from the semi-arid Sahel with more limited evidence about how sea flooding interacts with migration flows. This paper attempts to help fill this knowledge gap. Using data from a representative survey of households across three coastal communities in Ghana’s Volta River Delta, this paper concludes that exposure to sea flooding may not be a primary cause of out-migration as other community, economic and political factors influence migration intentions and decisions. Thus, it is important for planned adaptation interventions to be strengthened in situ to enable households, particularly farming households, sustain their livelihoods.     

Migradollars and mortality: The effects of migration on infant survival in Mexico

We apply multilevel methods to data from Mexico to examine how village migration patterns affect infant survival outcomes in origins. We argue that migration is a cumulative process with varying health effects at different stages of its progression, and test several related hypotheses. Findings suggest higher rates of infant mortality in communities experiencing intense U.S. migration. However, two factors diminish the disruptive effects of migration: migradollars, or migrant remittances to villages, and the institutionalization of migration over time. Mortality risks are low when remittances are high and decrease as migration becomes increasingly salient to livelihoods of communities. Together, the findings indicate eventual benefits to all infants, irrespective of household migration experience, as a result of the development of social and economic processes related to U.S. migration.     

Climigration? Population and climate change in Arctic Alaska

Residents of towns and villages in Arctic Alaska live on “the front line of climate change.” Some communities face immediate threats from erosion and flooding associated with thawing permafrost, increasing river flows, and reduced sea ice protection of shorelines. The term climigration, referring to migration caused by climate change, originally was coined for these places. Although initial applications emphasized the need for government relocation policies, it has elsewhere been applied more broadly to encompass unplanned migration as well. Some historical movements have been attributed to climate change, but closer study tends to find multiple causes, making it difficult to quantify the climate contribution. Clearer attribution might come from comparisons of migration rates among places that are similar in most respects, apart from known climatic impacts. We apply this approach using annual 1990–2014 time series on 43 Arctic Alaska towns and villages. Within-community time plots show no indication of enhanced out-migration from the most at-risk communities. More formally, there is no significant difference between net migration rates of at-risk and other places, testing several alternative classifications. Although climigration is not detectable to date, growing risks make either planned or unplanned movements unavoidable in the near future.