The preservation of multivariate comparative statics in nonexpected utility theory

This article investigates the preservation of multivariate expected utility comparative statics for “smooth” nonexpected utility representations. Specifically, we answer the following question: if an expected utility comparative statics property depends only on preferences over sure prospects, then when will a nonexpected utility maximizer with identical sure preferences also satisfy that property? We demonstrate that the effects of increased risk aversion are preserved under the “Almost Degenerate Independence” axiom, but that those of distribution changes of exogenous risks are not preserved under stringent assumptions. Hence, nonexpected utility comparative statics may diverge from expected utility, even for “first-order” properties—those whose effect is determinable from restrictions on “local” utility functions.     

Left-Side strong increases in risk and their comparative statics

This paper introduces a new concept of left-side strong increases in risk (L-SIR) that extends the definition of strong increases in risk (SIR). We also provide somewhat stronger restrictive set of risk-averse decision-makers with a non-negative third derivative utility (prudence) to obtain an appealing comparative statics result for L-SIR.The authors gratefully acknowledge the helpful comments and suggestions of an anonymous referee     

Deterministic transformations of random variables and the comparative statics of risk

In this article, a general class of deterministic transformations that can be interpreted as changes in risk are identified. This provides a fourth characterization of a Rothschild-Stiglitz increase in risk. In addition, a particular subclass of these transformations, termed simple transformations, is shown to be well suited for comparative static analyses. This subclass contains as a special case the linear transformation used so often in the literature. A theorem is presented that generalizes the known comparative static results for large as well as small changes in risk.     

Readiness for independent living of youth in residential childcare: A comparative study

Transition to adulthood is an accelerated and early process for care leavers that requires intensive preparation, training and support from child welfare services. This study aimed to explore the perceived readiness for independent living of a group of care-experienced young people preparing for leaving care in Spain and to compare it with the perceptions of their peers from the general population. A sample of 508 youth (50% women) aged 14–21 (M = 16.67; SD = 1.72) took part, of whom 279 were care experienced and 229 belonged to the general population in Spain. Participants' independent living skills, personal autonomy, self-efficacy and sociodemographic characteristics were assessed through an online survey using standardized instruments. Care-experienced young people displayed higher levels of life skills and autonomy in self-care, daily living at home and employment domains, but not related to making daily arrangements in their community. However, their educational level and self-efficacy levels were lower than in the comparison group. Work experience stood out as a significant predictor of care-experienced young people's life skills level. These findings support the importance of assessing life skills as an outcome of leaving care preparation services and providing care-experienced young people with real-life experiences to develop their life skills.     

经济学的前景

在经济学的发展过程中 ,不同学术流派的形成往往是或主要是由于经济分析角度或方法的不同。经济学的裂变在很大程度上依赖于社会道德规范 ,不道德的经济学在现代经济学的发展过程中几乎不存在。经济学发展的美好前景主要并不在于经济学家个人的天赋 ,而完全取决于经济学同其他学科良好的分工与协作 ,合理地利用数学工具以及克服追赶潮流、追求时尚等传统弊端     

The economics of catastrophes

Catastrophes can profitably be thought of as economic events. This essay begins by considering the consumption of catastrophes, stressing the way that we disseminate information about them, and respond, possibly on a nonrational basis. Catastrophes are produced through a combination of actions by nature and humans. Due to inappropriate incentives, human actions often exacerbate outcomes. This is particularly true in “micromotive” situations, such as the AIDS epidemic, where actions by many players produce a collectively bad outcome. Mechanisms to prevent or ameliorate catastrophes—liability, insurance, and government regulation—are considered.     

The theory of risk-bearing: Small and great risks

Under certain conditions, risk-sharing and, in particular, insurance are mutually advantageous transactions. An ideal competitive market fcr risk-shifting is described; the payments received by individuals depend on the resolution of all the uncertainties at the time of the market, including, for example, damages to all parties, not just to the insured. In an ideal system, premiums depend only on the total damage in a given state, not on its distribution over individuals. In particular, mitigation measures are optimally induced. The differences between the ideal model of insurance and the real world are described, and some explanations offered.     

Poverty statics and dynamics: does the accounting period matter?

Any public policy aimed at reducing the effects of deprivation should be aware of the consequences of the use of different income accounting periods on eligibility and subsequent policy evaluation. This study aims to throw some light on the relev-ance of choosing a specific accounting period for public policy evaluation in a European country, in contrast to the existing evidence for the United States. Our analysis indicates that there are some significant differences in the results on poverty when using different income accounting periods. Researchers and decision-makers using an annual income measure, whatever the economic and social welfare context, should be aware that the use of quarterly data instead of yearly data will lead to a significantly larger number of poor households and a lower level of inequality and mobility in the distribution.     

Disability insurance risks: The Argentinian case

This article analyses the risk of disability facing workers who contribute to the Argentinian Integrated Social Security System (Sistema Integrado Previsional Argentino— SIPA). Using administrative records as our source of data for the period 2000‐2006, the results indicate that 1.46 workers per 1,000 became disabled annually during that period. The risk of disability rates were higher for men than for women, but increased with age for both sexes. The risk of disability rates have also been broken down by pathology and social security scheme, taking the effects of age and sex into account. To conclude, international comparisons are presented.     

The logical reconstruction of pure exchange economics: Another alternative

Theory and Decision -     

经济人假设与马克思主义经济学

本文力图在新的时代背景下探讨马克思主义经济学有关资本主义生产当事人的动机和行为模式的理论。第一节和第二节分析了马克思的资本主义生产当事人概念，指出马克思分别在资本一般、竞争、以及不确定性的角度解释了资本主义生产当事人的行为和动机。第三节简略地评论了经济制度的多样性与行为模式之间的互动关系，并提出“资本主义生产当事人”这样的概念在面对制度多样性的问题时有其局限性。     

The complex politics of catastrophe economics

The purpose of this essay is to explore the implications for public policy of the assumption that policy makers exhibit the same cognitive and perceptual problems as other citizens regarding catastrophic events. The key conclusion is that the same factors that cause citizens to behave inefficiently in preparing for and responding to disasters also will cause inefficiencies in policies concerning catastrophic events. Among the more important expected pathologies of disaster policies are: (1) a failure to balance benefits and costs at the margin for different types of disasters, due to cognitive pathologies such as availability and overconfidence; (2) a tendency for policy to underinvest in protection and overinvest in response; and (3) a skepticism for policies based on sound insurance principles for spreading costs and assessing claims.     

Testing between alternative models of choice under uncertainty: Some initial results

Experiments have identified a number of well-known violations of expected utility theory, giving rise to alternative models of choice under uncertainty, all of which are able to explain these violations. In this article, predictions of several prominent rival formulations are examined. No single alternative consistently organizes choices. Among the more important inconsistencies, we identify conditions generating systematic fanning in of indifference curves in the unit probability triangle, and find risk-loving over a number of gambles with all positive payoffs, in cases where prospect theory predicts risk aversion.     

The meaning of non-profit mission breadth: A constitutional economics perspective

Given the non-profit management imperative of formulating optimally broad mission statements, this paper explores the meaning and the determinants of non-profit mission breadth. By adopting a constitutional economics perspective, the paper argues that mission breadth is ultimately determined by the trade-off between costs of collective decision-making in non-profit organizations and transaction costs of creating and maintaining these organizations. Developing optimally broad missions is shown to result in minimizing the sum of these costs, thus leading to an expansion of the non-profit sector and to an improvement of its problem-solving potential.     

The economics and politics of retirement incomes policy in Australia

The process of adjustment to the changing demographic balance in Australia over recent years has resulted infrequent and complex changes in Australia's retirement income arrangements. Many people have found great difficulty in understanding how these new arrangements are supposed to work. This article describes some of these recent changes and the factors that triggered them. It also examines what the elderly's reactions to these changes indicate about the nature of the "politics of ageing". Beginning with an overview of population ageing in Australia, it then briefly outlines the major features of the country's retirement income system. This is followed by an examination of the factors that triggered the recent changes in retirement income arrangements. The last section describes the political response of Australia's elderly to these changes.     

Reversals of preference between compound and simple risks: The role of editing heuristics

A reversal of preference between compound and simple risks was demonstrated in the context of compound gambles with loss elements transparently in common. The role of predecision editing heuristics in this violation of the Invariance Principle was explored in a process-tracing study. Verbal reports showed thatcancellation-by-similarity andamalgamation heuristics were differentially applied to simple and compound risks depending on their similarity structure. It was argued that such heuristics are often useful in simplifying complex choice problems without loss of important information. However, the inappropriate cancellation of elements of compound risks can be maladaptive, and can contribute to a lack of insight into the true nature of these risks.     

New social risks in postindustrial society: Some evidence on responses to active labour market policies from Eurobarometer

One result of the complex economic and social changes currently impacting on state welfare is the emergence of what may be termed "new social risks" as part of the shift to a postindustrial society. These concern access to adequately paid employment, particularly for lower-skilled young people, in an increasingly flexible labour market, and managing work-life balance for women with family responsibilities engaged in full-time careers. They coexist with the old social risks that traditional welfare states developed to meet, which typically concern retirement from or interruption to paid work, in most cases for a male "breadwinner". New social risks offer policymakers the opportunity to transform vice into virtue by replacing costly passive benefits with policies which mobilize the workforce, arguably enhancing economic competitiveness, and reduce poverty among vulnerable groups. However, the political constituencies to support such policies are weak, since the risks affect people most strongly at particular life stages and among specific groups. This paper examines attitudes to new social risk labour market policies in four contrasting European countries. It shows that attitudes in this area are strongly embedded in overall beliefs about the appropriate scale, direction and role of state welfare interventions, so that the weakness of new social risk constituencies does not necessarily undermine the possibility of attracting support for such policies, provided they are developed in ways that do not contradict national traditions of welfare state values.