The arguments of utility: Preference reversals in expected utility of income models

There is a debate in the literature about the arguments of utility in expected utility theory. Some implicitly assume utility is defined on final wealth whereas others argue it may be defined on initial wealth and income separately. I argue that making income and wealth separate arguments of utility has important implications that may not be widely recognized. A framework is presented that allows the unified treatment of expected utility models and anomalies. I show that expected utility of income models can predict framing induced preference reversals, a willingness to pay-willingness to accept gap for lotteries, and choice-value preference reversals. The main contribution is a theorem. It is proved that for all utility functions where initial wealth and income enter separately, either there will be preference reversals or preferences can be represented by a utility function defined on final wealth alone.     

The decomposition of social policy in Sweden

The traditionally strong dominance of the state in social security in Sweden has been replaced by a more mixed structure. Individuals are increasingly covered by a mix of private welfare, employment-based corporate welfare and state programmes. There are several reasons behind this development: shifts in the economic and political conditions, strong tax incentives for the individual to buy private insurance, increasing problems for the public system in covering the loss of income for middle and high income earners, repeated media reports that the public welfare system will go bankrupt in the near future and increasing reports on free-riding and cheating in the area of public insurance. The advantage of the more mixed system may be its similarities to social insurance in some of the European Community Member States. However, from a social policy point of view there are also some dangers. There will be increasing tendencies towards inequality. In particular, the difference in social security conditions between the skilfully employed and marginal groups will be even more marked. The unemployed, the young and people with physical or mental handicaps will be left outside the private and corporate structures. There is also a marked risk that some individuals be reach a level of coverage well above the loss of income, and this will be a disincentive to work. Private and corporate welfare systems are also largely invisible in the sense that individuals may not even know under what conditions they are covered. Another problem is that public attitudes towards the public welfare system will increasingly become more negative and different in various parts of the population. The effect of this may be a vicious circle: public social policy becomes increasingly inefficient and unpopular among the working population and remains only as a marginal system for small marginal groups.     

Do Life-Saving Regulations Save Lives?

Life-saving regulations may be counter-productive since they have an indirect mortality effect through the reduction in disposable income. This paper estimates the effect of income on mortality, controlling for the initial health status and a host of personal characteristics. The analysis is based on a random sample of the adult Swedish population of over 40,000 individuals followed up for 10–17 years. The income loss that will induce an expected fatality is estimated to be $6.8 million when the costs are borne equally among all adults, $8.4 million when the costs are borne proportionally to income and $9.8 million when the costs are borne progressively to income.     

A note on Marshallian and von Neumann-Morgenstern utility

The curvature of a decision maker's utility function is often used to measure his risk preference. In order to comprehensively describe an individual's decision making behaviour, however, it would also seem desirable to measure the gain in utility from an increase in wealth or income before accounting for risk. If a small increase in wealth leads to a large utility gain, then it could be said that the individual's aspiration to achieve the wealth increase would be high. This aspiration, however, may be more than offset by the risk involved in obtaining this extra wealth and the individual's attitude towards risk. In the following paper it is shown how the marginal utility of Marshall can be used in a measure of aspiration with this measure then combined with the usual measure of risk preference to explain the shape of any individuals utility curve. Using these measures, a general utility curve for all income or wealth classes is postulated.The author would like to thank Professor I. Horowitz for providing the inspiration that led to his note. Any errors are the responsibility of the author.     

缩小经济转型期收入差距悬殊的财政制度安排

贫富差距是经济转型期一个不可回避的现象。但如果按国际通用的基尼系数和贫困人口数量衡量,目前中国的贫富差距已处于世界较高水平。中国已形成了相对稳定和规模庞大的收入弱势群体。收入差距过于悬殊不仅会毁坏社会公平,而且会对社会主义的本质造成危害,使一部分人对改革失去信心。合理控制贫富差距是缓解中国社会矛盾,构建科学合理、公平公正的分配体系,确保社会和谐发展的当务之急。虽然引发中国收入差距过于悬殊的原因很多,但财政政策设计和制度安排缺位是主要原因。因此,完善财政资源配置的制度安排是控制收入差距过于悬殊的重要举措,为此必须采取必要措施。     

The impact of the EU sugar trade reform on poor households in developing countries: A general equilibrium analysis

We use a modified version of the applied general equilibrium model GTAP, called GTAP_MH, to evaluate the impact of a reduction in the EU's support price for sugar on income distribution of African households. For LDC countries, non-ACP but participant in the EBA initiative a +2% change is indicated in term of income generation across all ten social strata identified within GTAP_MH framework, with positive percentage changes in supply prices at household level of endowment commodities, and positive percentage changes in price indices for private household expenditures. The big losers will be those countries that would no longer be able to compete at an international level as a result of the lost preferences.     

Estimating Risk Attitudes using Lotteries: A Large Sample Approach

Attitudes towards risk play a major role in many economic decisions. In empirical studies it is quite often assumed that attitudes towards risk do not vary across individuals. This paper questions this assumption and analyses which factors influence an individual's risk attitude. Based on questions on lotteries in a large household survey we first semiparametrically estimate an index for risk aversion. We only make weak assumptions about the underlying decision process and our estimation method allows for generalisations of expected utility. We then estimate a structural model based on Cumulative Prospect Theory. Expected utility is strongly rejected and both the value function and the probability weighting function vary significantly with (among other things) age, income, and wealth of the individual.     

Did wages reflect growth in productivity?

The level of productivity doubled in the U.S. nonfarm business sector between 1970 and 2006. Wages, or more accurately total compensation per hour, increased at approximately the same annual rate during that period if nominal compensation is adjusted for inflation in the same way as the nominal output measure that is used to calculate productivity. Total employee compensation as a share of national income was 66% of national income in 1970 and 64% in 2006. This measure of the labor compensation share has been remarkably stable since the 1970s. It rose from an average of 62% in the decade of the 1960s to 66% in the decades of the 1970s and 1980s and then declined to 65% in the decade of the 1990s where it has again been from 2000 until the most recent quarter.     

Morality and welfare

The economic theory of utility does not take into account moral behaviour, that is behaviour in which an individual faced with two courses of action may choose the one which is less profitable to him. It is shown in this paper that the economic approach can be broadened to take such behaviour into account. The individual is considered to maximize a higher welfare function whose arguments are (a) his utility and (b) higher goods or moral value. The latter are goals which he ought to achieve. The amount of higher goods achieved depends upon his moral preference. The ranking of different acts is complete - an assumption commonly made in economics with regard to bundles of goods. In an extension of the economic model of optimization over time, the individual is considered to maximize his higher welfare over his lifetime. This may require raising his moral preference.     

Reference Wealth Effects in Sequential Choice

It is argued that in order to accommodate experimentally-observed choice patterns, it is not enough to model the utility function as being dependent on changes from a reference wealth point. Instead, individuals should be modeled as treating decisions as part of an identifiable sequence of decisions, and utility should be a function of reference wealth, income so far from the sequence, and payoffs from the current decision. The three-argument utility function allows for risk aversion over gains and risk seeking over losses for the first choice in the sequence, and for the house money and break-even effects in later decisions.     

Incorporating Gender Inequality into Income Distribution Research

Income distribution research assumes equal sharing of resources within the household. This assumption has been criticized for leading to an underestimation of the extent of gender inequality in modern societies. In this paper two alternative methods of deriving an income distribution are presented, both of which make other assumptions about the extent of sharing of resources within households. The first is a partial sharing distribution modelled from survey data; the second is a distribution of individual income, i.e. no sharing of resources. The methods are then applied to income distribution data from the 1991 Swedish Level of Living Survey and the respective distributions are compared with the baseline distribution, assuming equal pooling of resources. As expected, the results indicate that differences between men and women increase but the extent of this increase is somewhat less than expected. Nevertheless, the analysis highlights how gender inequality can be brought into the field of income distribution.     

Incomes after Job‐loss in the United States: From Programme Rules to Panel Data

Welfare state studies are usually motivated by one or both of two concerns: programme effects on the incidence of poverty, and the possibility of perverse incentive effects. Most research has been comparative, using cross‐national indicators from the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development and other international organizations. That research often contrasts the generosity of programmes in a number of European countries and the lack of it in the USA. Focusing on income transfers after job‐loss, in this article we critically examine the comparative evidence on US welfare state generosity and then use the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to estimate what happens to job‐losers' incomes. The comparative analysis suggests conclusions more nuanced than found in much of the literature. The PSID analysis shows how the income effects of job‐loss vary across job‐losers and suggests that the role of unemployment compensation programmes in supporting incomes may be overstated.     

Deprivation using satisfaction measures in Spain: An evaluation of unemployment benefits

The evaluation of social programs constitutes an important aspect in the modeling of economic policies. On the basis that the measurement of well being through subjective measures provides a broader perspective than through objective economic variables, this paper first identifies the determinants of deprivation in Spain, in monetary terms, and in non-monetary terms using satisfaction variables. In addition to establishing that the more unequal the income distribution within a group, the less income-satisfied is the individual, we find that unemployment is one of the main determinants of deprivation and satisfaction. Accordingly, we propose a reform of unemployment benefit policy that maintains individuals at the same utility level as when employed, rather than applying the current benefit system. Our policy conclusions reveal that the public budget dedicated to paying benefits to restore satisfaction levels, during the period 1994-1999, would have increased by €2,536,165.13 thousand on an average annually. It could be a desirable policy in good times but, since it increases public spending and thus public deficit, economic policy makers should decide whether it is adequate in rainy days.     

Socioeconomic status and the dynamics of preferences for income inequality in the United States, 1978–2016

Although considerable evidence indicates that public preferences for income inequality and redistribution vary across socioeconomic groups (i.e., occupation and income), much less is known about the temporal dynamics of these preferences. The purpose of this study is (a) to examine whether the attitudinal distance between managerial/professional workers and unskilled manual workers has changed (converged or diverged) over time and to (b) explore the reasons for and implications of the dynamics of preferences in the past several decades. Using data from the General Social Survey 1978–2016 (23 time‐points; N = 27,211), this study finds that the influence of occupational class has lost some of its significance in shaping public preferences for income inequality and that the declining effect of occupation can be explained in part by the attitudinal convergence between better‐ and less‐educated citizens. Findings suggest that proequality coalitions across educational boundaries play a remedial role in bridging the occupational divide over government redistribution in the United States.     

On arguments from self-interest for the Nash solution and the Kalai egalitarian solution to the bargaining problem

I argue in this paper that there are two considerations which govern the dynamics of a two-person bargaining game, viz. relative proportionate utility loss from conceding to one's opponent's proposal and relative non-proportionate utility loss from not conceding to one's opponent's proposal, if she were not to concede as well. The first consideration can adequately be captured by the information contained in vNM utilities. The second requires measures of utility which allow for an interpersonal comparison of utility differences. These considerations respectively provide for a justification of the Nash solution and the Kalai egalitarian solution. However, none of these solutions taken by themselves can provide for a full story of bargaining, since, if within a context of bargaining one such consideration is overriding, the solution which does not match this consideration will yield unreasonable results. I systematically present arguments to the effect that each justification from self-interest for respectively the Nash and the Kalai egalitarian solution is vulnerable to this kind of objection. I suggest that the search for an integrative model may be a promising line of research.I am grateful to Jon Elster, A. Hylland, F. Spinnewijn, J. Verhoeven and the members of the research group for theoretical sociology in the K.U.L. for their comments on an earlier version of this paper. I also thank the Ministry for Foreign Affairs (Norway) for its financial support and the members of the department of sociology in the University of Oslo for their hospitality and interest in my work.     

A parametric analysis of prospect theory’s functionals for the general population

This article presents the results of an experiment that completely measures the utility function and probability weighting function for different positive and negative monetary outcomes, using a representative sample of N = 1,935 from the general public. The results confirm earlier findings in the lab, suggesting that utility is less pronounced than what is found in classical measurements where expected utility is assumed. Utility for losses is found to be convex, consistent with diminishing sensitivity, and the obtained loss-aversion coefficient of 1.6 is moderate but in agreement with contemporary evidence. The estimated probability weighting functions have an inverse-S shape and they imply pessimism in both domains. These results show that probability weighting is also an important phenomenon in the general population. Women and lower educated individuals are found to be more risk averse, in agreement with common findings. In contrast to previous studies that ascribed gender differences in risk attitudes solely to differences in the degree utility curvature, however, our results show that this finding is primarily driven by loss aversion and, for women, also by a more pessimistic psychological response toward the probability of obtaining the best possible outcome.     

Evaluating Time Streams of Income: Discounting What?

For decisions whose consequences accrue over time, there are several possible techniques to compute total utility. One is to discount utilities of future consequences at some appropriate rate. The second is to discount per-period certainty equivalents. And the third is to compute net present values (NPVs) of various possible streams and to then apply the utility function to these net present values. We find that the best approach is to first compute NPVs of various possible income streams and then take the utility of such NPVs. We show the drawbacks of other alternative models of evaluating income streams. The article discusses the advantages of the power and logarithmic forms in the modeling of time preference. These are the only forms for which utility of income and utility of consumption are strategically equivalent. Further, these forms permit the flexibility in the choice of a time period (e.g., monthly or quarterly) without modifying the utility function, thus simplifying analysis.     

SPECIAL ISSUE： DISTRIBUTION OF NATIONAL INCOME IN A TRANSITIONAL ECONOMY Exploring high saving rates in China： an analysis based on the 1992-2003 China flow of funds accounts

本文以国家统计局公布的1992—2003年中国资金流量表为基础，从收入分配和部门储蓄倾向两个方面对居民、企业和政府等国内三个部门的储蓄率进行了比较分析。我们发现，尽管居民部门的储蓄率最高，但是，自1992年以来，它实际上呈逐步下降趋势，其主要原因在于居民部门获得的劳动报酬、财产收入和再分配收入均有所下降；企业储蓄率呈现缓缓上升趋势，主要原因并不在于企业盈利能力的提高，而在于其主要支出——对居民部门的劳动报酬支出和利息支出长期被稳定在较低的水平上；政府储蓄率在经历了上个世纪的低位徘徊之后，于2000年以后急剧上升，其主要原因在于，通过初次分配和再分配，政府的可支配收入在国民收入的分配中占据了越来越大的份额，同时政府部门的储蓄倾向也在不断提高。本文的政策建议是：为了实现以提高国内消费率为核心的经济发展战略，我国的经济运行应全面转向以改善收入分配结构、提高居民收入为重点的轨道上。为达此目的，加速财政政策向公共财政转型，增加公共支出和对居民的福利支出，在提高劳动生产率的基础上提高企业对劳动者的支付水平，应成为今后我国宏观调控的长期任务。