统计主体利益均等化研究

针对中国统计改革尚未解决的基层统计边缘化、空壳化问题,分析了问题产生的主要原因,在深入剖析统计主体利益失衡理论根源、思想根源与现实根源的基础上,提出了统计主体利益均等化主张,通过开放统计服务市场、建立均等化统计制度、构建商业化统计模式、建设职业化统计队伍,从而实现统计主体互利共赢。这对于激发基层统计活力,夯实政府统计基础,提高政府统计数据质量和公信力有十分重要的意义。     

统计生命力的重新审视

一、统计与经济利益主体统计作为认识社会经济现象的方法论,履行其信息、咨询和监督的基本职能,无疑是为一定的社会经济利益主体服务的。因此,统计活动的出发点和归宿点应符合相应的经济利益主体行为的需要,有利于经济利益主体的运行和为其带来一定的利益,离开主体行为与利益去探讨统计的生命力与出路是抽象的和不符合实际的,这就是说,统计的生命力取决于其与主体行为联系的密切程度,二者联系越密切,     

大数据时代的统计主体利益均等化路径研究

大数据正在开启统计大开放、大服务的新时代,必将带来统计利益关系的新变化。如何协调统计主体利益关系,事关统计改革的成败。文章遵循互利共赢的原则,按照"改革利益失衡的统计法律制度市场→构建面向公众的统计服务系统的思路,提出了→开放长期封闭的统计服务实现统计主体利益均等化的具体→建立互利共赢的商业统计模式措施。→建设复合型专业化统计队伍"     

新形势下推进统计执法专业化的几点思考

正随着市场经济发展和统计改革进程的进一步加快,统计工作在认识国情、反映国力、把握国事以及国家的决策和管理等方面发挥着越来越重要的作用。由于利益主体多元化,各种利益主体出于各自不同利益的考虑,或多或少对统计数据进行干扰,还会出现一些新的统计违法行为,导致统计工作的难度越来越大。因此,新形势下,查处统计违法行为、保障统计数据质量对我们的统计执法工作也提出了严峻的挑战。一、当前统计执法现状     

统计违法中的利益链及其治理

统计违法行为中反映出的利益链及其特点 通过对当前统计违法行为的分析我们可以发现,统计违法行为的主体是统计数据的提供者、制作者、使用者,统计违法行为的客体是统计数据.在现行统计体制下,各主体之间由于存在着非正当利益的一致性,而形成了非正当利益链条.由这个链条又形成了统计违法机制及其运行过程.     

依法统计是统计改革与发展的战略选择

《统计法》颁布实施20多年来，广大统计工作者运用法律武器，在理顺工作关系、治理统计环境、提高数据质量、扩大统计影响、树立统计权威等各个方面都做出了不可磨灭的贡献，取得了非常显著的成绩。但是，随着社会主义市场经济体制的确立，统计工作的内部和外部环境都发生了很大韵变化，社会经济生活里现出经济成分和利益主体多元化，经济结构和经济联系复杂化，     

紧紧围绕[两个转变]提高地区统计工作服务水平

统计是实行科学决策和现代化管理的一项重要基础工作,随着计划经济向社会主义市场经济转变,粗放型向集约型转变,统计对象、统计的范围和领域都发生了巨大的变化。一方面统计的内容在广度和深度上都比过去大幅度地扩展和延伸,国家和地方的统计任务成倍增加;另一方面由于统计调查的对象日趋复杂和利益主体的多元化,被调查者对各级政府统计调查的合作与支持程度大为降低,统计调查难度加大,数据质量受到严重失实的威胁。就目前统计工作状况看有五方面不适应“两个转变”的需要:     

加强执法力度,保障统计数据真实

一、统计数据失真的历史画面，令人触目惊心统计是人类认识客观事物总体数量关系的活动，它是统计主体对客体发挥主观能动性的结果。新中国成立至今，统计为社会进步和经济建设做了大量的卓有成效的贡献。应当充分给予肯定。但由于统计主体主观能动性的发挥受历史的、利益...     

市场经济下统计信息失真探析

市场经济下统计信息失真探析陕西财经学院刘涛１．信息的不对称性的干扰。在市场体制下，利益主体多元化，生产经营独立化决定各经济实体都有一些自己清楚而别人未知的私人信息。这是社会经济现象重要特征，直接反映出市场经济、资源配置、行为主体在时空分布上不均匀，不...     

在“两个转变”中的统计改革

在新的历史时期,统计作为上层建筑具体表现的构成之一,应如何适应生产力的发展,促进“两个转变”,已成为迫切需要解决的问题。为此,笔者认为,在新的历史时期应着重做好以下几点:(一)改革组织体系。社会主义市场经济条件下,利益主体多元化,政府调控间接化,国家、企业、居民等市场主体对统计信息的量与质都产生了新的要求,在此多元化目标的市场需求推动下,统计组织体系应由三大块构成,即政府统计系统、社会统计系统、企业统计系统。政府统计系统的功能是研究宏     

A functional data approach to model score difference process in professional basketball games

In this paper, we investigate the progress of score difference (between home and away teams) in professional basketball games employing functional data analysis (FDA). The observed score difference is viewed as the realization of the latent intensity process, which is assumed to be continuous. There are two major advantages of modeling the latent score difference intensity process using FDA: (1) it allows for arbitrary dependent structure among score change increments. This removes potential model mis-specifications and accommodates momentum which is often observed in sports games. (2) further statistical inferences using FDA estimates will not suffer from inconsistency due to the issue of having a continuous model yet discretely sampled data. Based on the FDA estimates, we define and numerically characterize momentum in basketball games and demonstrate its importance in predicting game outcomes.     

Bias in Routine Calculation of the Variance of OLS Estimators When the Disturbances are Autocorrelated

In this article a sequence of statistical games is described that were found useful for teaching statistics to agriculture students. The ideas of experimental design tend to be neglected in statistics service courses for agriculturalists because of the practical difficulty of allowing students to learn design by experience. Simulating experiments in the classroom or on the computer console is a viable alternative and should be more widely used. In this article, three games—TOMATO, CHICK, and SELECT—are described. Other games can be invented. The relevance of using games extends to fields other than agriculture.     

Power Ratings for NCAA Division II Football

ABSTRACT

There is an abundance of entities that disseminate power ratings for NCAA Division I-A and I-AA football teams. This is not true for the NCAA Division II level. Statistical data on all NCAA Divisions II football games for two years were examined to develop a rating system. Several statistical techniques were performed on the data. Ultimately, the ratings were based on won-lost percentage, margin of victory, strength of schedule, and quality wins. Results are given for the 2001 and 2002 seasons. Ratings for the 2002 season for Divisions I-A and I-AA are also given using the techniques developed.     

Applications of statistical methods to American football

The rules of American football favor the strategic placement of the 11 players per team making the identification of statistical tendencies a particularly useful capability. Gambling on American football games is explained. Several automated prediction techniques are discussed and compared, including least squares, weighted least squares, James-Stein, and Harville. A more data-intensive approach is discussed. That approach has coaching implications as well as predictive ability.     

Modelling the probability distribution of prize winnings in the UK National Lottery: consequences of conscious selection

Summary.  In the statistical and economics literature on lotteries, the problem of designing attractive games has been studied by using models in which sales are a function of the structure of prizes. Recently the prize structure has been proxied by using the moments of the prize distribution. Such modelling is a vital input into the process of designing appealing new lottery games that can generate large revenues for good causes. We show how conscious selection, the process by which lottery players choose numbers non-randomly, complicates the multivariate distribution of prize winners by introducing massive overdispersion of numbers of winners, and large correlations between the numbers of different types of prize winner. Although it is possible intuitively to reach a qualitative understanding of the data, an a priori model does not fit well. We therefore construct an empirical model of the joint distribution of prize winners and use it to calculate the moments of ticket value as a function of sales. The new model gives much higher estimates of ticket value moments, particularly skewness, than previously obtained. Our results will have consequences for policy decisions regarding game design. A spin-off result is that, on the basis of the results of model fitting, lottery players may increase the expected value of their ticket by strategically choosing numbers which are less popular with other lottery players.     

Teaching statistics to elementary school students

We describe a short special statistics program presented to 24 students, ages 8 to II years, selected for their ability in mathematics. The contentof the program of the reactionsof the students are reviewed. we found that young studentscan grasp; understand and retainsimple statistical notionwhen inspired by gamesor newspaper or articals and that special programs; such as this one can help to improve studentsattitude towards mathematics in particularand school in general. ofofofancs^r-tionQf the students ars reviewed. We found that young students can grasp, understand, and retain simple statistical notions when inspired by games or newspaper articles and that special programs, such as this one, can help to improve students' attitudes toward mathematics in particular and school in general     

A new sports ratings system: The tiddlywinks world ratings

A system for calculating relative playing strengths of tiddlywinks players is described. The method can also be used for other sports. It is specifically designed to handle cases where the number of games played in a season varies greatly between players, and thus the confidence that one can have in an assigned rating also varies greatly between players. In addition, the method is designed to handle situations in which some games in the tournament are played as individuals ("singles'), while others are played with a partner ("pairs'). These factors make application of some statistical treatments, such as the Elo rating system used in chess, difficult to apply. The new method characterizes each player's ability by a numerical rating together with an associated uncertainty in that player's rating. After each tournament, a "tournament rating' is calculated for each player based on how many points the player achieved and the relative strength of partner(s) and opponent(s). Statistical analysis is then used to estimate the likely error in the calculated tournament rating. Both the tournament rating and its estimated error are used in the calculation of new ratings. The method has been applied to calculate tiddlywinks world ratings based on over 13 r 000 national tournament games in Britain and the USA going back to 1985.     

Order statistics and the length of the best-n-of-(2n − 1) competition

The best-4-of-7 series is a popular playoff format to decide the champion in most North American professional sports. World Series (best-4-of-7) type competitions give rise to interesting probabilistic and statistical questions. We determine the expected length of this type of series by relating it to a problem involving order statistics. We also calculate the variance of the length and provide a simple formula for series of fair games. The method can be extended to derive higher order moments. This novel approach leads to new results that can be formulated in closed forms in terms of the distribution function of various binomial distributions. The emphasis is on establishing the connection to order statistics and obtaining closed forms. The relation to the negative binomial distribution as well as to the sooner waiting time problem in sequential testing is also discussed. We also consider the case when ties are allowed in the single games.     

Gamma-minimax results for the class of unimodal priors

Olman and Shmundak proved 1985 that in estimating a bounded normal mean under squared error loss the Bayes estimator with respect to the uniform distribution on the parameter interval is gamma-minimax when the parameter interval is sufficiently small and the class of priors consists of all symmetric and unimodal distributions. Recently, one of the authors showed that this result remains valid for quite general families of distributions which satisfy some regularity conditions. In the present paper a generalization to the class of unimodal priors with fixed mode is derived. It is proved that the Bayes estimator with respect to a suitable mixture of two uniform distributions is gamma-minimax for sufficiently small parameter intervals. To that end appropriate characterizations of a saddle point in the corresponding statistical games are established. Some results of a numerical study are presented.     

政府统计生产体系中的大数据融入探讨——基于数据源与数据质量的分析

大数据在统计生产中潜力巨大,有助于构建高质量的统计生产体系,但符合统计生产目标的数据源特征及其数据质量问题有待明确。本文在寻求大数据源与传统统计数据源共同点的基础上,讨论了统计生产中的大数据源及其数据质量问题,进而探讨了大数据与传统统计生产融合应用。首先从数据生成流程及数据特征两个方面论证并限定了可用于统计生产的大数据源;然后在广义数据质量框架下讨论了大数据统计生产中的数据质量问题,梳理了大数据统计生产流程的数据质量控制要点和质量缺陷;最后根据数据质量分析结果,提出了将大数据融入传统调查的统计体系构建思路。