Ethnic population projections for the UK, 2001–2051

This paper reports on projections of the United Kingdom’s ethnic group populations for 2001–2051. For the years 2001–2007 we estimate fertility rates, survival probabilities, internal migration probabilities and international migration flows for 16 ethnic groups and 355 UK areas. We make assumptions about future component rates, probabilities and flows and feed these into our projection model. This model is a cohort-component model specified for single years of age to 100+. To handle this large state space, we employed a bi-regional model. We implement four projections: (1) a benchmark projection that uses the component inputs for 2001; (2) a trend projection where assumptions beyond 2007 are adjusted to those in the UK 2008-based National Population Projections (NPP); (3) a projection that modifies the NPP assumptions and (4) a projection that uses a different emigration assumption. The projected UK population ranges between a low of 63 millions in 2051 under the first projection to a high of 79 million in the third projection. Under all projections ethnic composition continues to change: the White British, White Irish and Black Caribbean groups experience the slowest growth and lose population share; the Other White and Mixed groups to experience relative increases in share; South Asian groups grow strongly as do the Chinese and Other Ethnic groups. The ethnic minority share of the population increases from 13% (2001) to 25% in the trend projection but to only 20% under our modified emigration projection. However, what is certain is that the UK can look forward to be becoming a more diverse nation by mid-century.     

Projections of the ethnic minority populations of the United Kingdom 2006-2056

The ethnic minority populations in the UK are growing substantially through immigration, a youthful age structure, and in some cases relatively high fertility. Their diverse demographic and socioeconomic characteristics have attracted considerable academic and policy attention, especially insofar as those distinctive characteristics have persisted in the generations born in the UK. No official projections of the UK ethnic populations have been published since 1979. This article provides projections to 2056 and beyond of 12 ethnic groups. Given overall net immigration and vital rates as assumed in the office for National Statistics 2008-based Principal Projection, and the ethnic characteristics estimated here, the ethnic minority populations (including the Other White) would increase from 13 percent of the UK population in 2006 to 28 percent by 2031 and 44 percent by 2056, and to about half the 0-4 age group in 2056. Alternative projections assume various lower levels of immigration. Possible implications of projected changes are discussed.     

Child Poverty Among Hong Kong Ethnic Minorities

This paper analyzes the data from the Population Census of 2011 to identify the characteristics of poor ethnic minority groups in Hong Kong and the factors that are associated with child poverty among these ethnic minorities. The results show that the child poverty level varies between different ethnic groups and that ethnic minorities from developing nations are likely to have a higher poverty level. In particular, Pakistani children have the highest poverty rate among all ethnic groups. The results also show that Pakistani, Nepalese, and Mixed (Chinese and Asian) nationalities have a higher child poverty rate than that of Chinese individuals who constitute the majority of the Hong Kong population. The main reason for this is that, unlike their Chinese counterparts, some of these ethnic minority households have not benefited from their own human capital or their length of exposure in the local society in Hong Kong. And even if they have benefited, the positive impact of these factors on ethnic minority households was much weaker compared to that of Chinese households. These results suggest that ethnic minorities need to be categorized as a separate group in order to assess their specific needs, and assimilation policies, especially support on Chinese language learning, need to be an integral part of the government’s poverty reduction strategy to reduce child poverty among ethnic minorities.     

White Residential Segregation in U.S. Metropolitan Areas: Conceptual Issues, Patterns, and Trends from the U.S. Census, 1980 to 2010

Racial and ethnic diversity continues to spread to communities across the United States. Rather than focus on the residential patterns of specific minority or immigrant groups, this study examines changing patterns of White residential segregation in metropolitan America. Using data from the 1980 to 2010 decennial censuses, we calculate levels of White segregation using two common measures, analyze the effect of defining the White population in different ways, and, drawing upon the group threat theoretical perspective, we examine the metropolitan correlates of White segregation. We find that White segregation from others declined significantly from 1980 to 2010, regardless of the measure of segregation or the White population used. However, we find some evidence consistent with the group threat perspective, as White dissimilarity is higher in metro areas that are more diverse, and especially those with larger Black populations. Nevertheless, our findings indicate that Whites having been living in increasingly integrated neighborhoods over the last few decades, suggesting some easing of the historical color line.     

Midwives’ insights in relation to the common barriers in providing effective perinatal care to women from ethnic minority groups with ‘high risk’ pregnancies: A qualitative study

ProblemChildbearing women from ethnic minority groups in the United Kingdom (UK) have significantly poorer perinatal outcomes overall.BackgroundChildbearing women from ethnic minority groups report having poorer experiences and outcomes in perinatal care, and health professionals report having difficulty in providing effective care to them. Yet barriers in relation to providing such care remain underreported.AimThe aim of this study was to elicit midwives' insights in relation to the common barriers in providing effective perinatal care to women from ethnic minority groups with 'high risk' pregnancies and how to overcome these barriers.MethodsA qualitative study was undertaken in a single obstetric led unit in London, UK. A thematic analysis was undertaken to identify themes from the data.FindingsA total of 20 midwives participated. They self-identified as White British (n = 7), Black African (n = 7), Black Caribbean (n = 3) and Asian (n = 3). Most (n = 12) had more than 10 years’ experience practising as a registered midwife (range 2 – 35 years). Four themes were identified: 1) Communication, 2) Continuity of carer, 3) Policy and 4) Social determinants. Racism and unconscious bias underpin many of the findings presented.DiscussionCo-created community hubs may improve access to more effective care for childbearing women from ethnic minority groups. A focus on robust anti-racism interventions, continuity of carer, staff wellbeing and education along with the provision of orientation and bespoke translation services are also suggested for the reduction of poorer outcomes and experiences.ConclusionAlong with policies designed to promote equality and irradicate racism, there is a need for co-created community hubs and continuity of carer in perinatal services. Further research is also required to develop and evaluate culturally safe, and evidence-based interventions designed to address the current disparities apparent.     

Developing strategies for deriving small population fertility rates

Many agencies require population estimates and projections by ethnic group. These projections need ethnic-specific, age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) but their inclusion is challenging since ethnicity is not recorded at birth registration. In this paper maternity data are used in a case study of electoral wards in Bradford, West Yorkshire, to develop fertility rates for small populations for a 1991 based projection. The challenge is to capture local variations in fertility by ethnic group when data are sparse. Small areas were grouped together using cluster analysis to define combinations with similar sociodemographic and fertility experiences so that sparse data could be aggregated to estimate reliable ethnic-specific fertility rates. For comparison, the data were aggregated into the 1991 Office for National Statistics area type classification. Fertility rates by single year of age for all area types were smoothed using the Hadwiger function. For the White ethnic group there were sufficient births to create ethnic-specific, ward-level ASFRs. For other ethnicities grouping of areas was necessary. The accuracy of the ASFRs in predicting births was assessed using mean absolute percentage error. Results show that for some minority groups district-level ethnic-specific fertility rates produced the most accurate birth estimates even though they were based on a larger area. This implies that rates created may be informative about the local area for White ethnic type but not in the same way for smaller ethnic groups. In terms of grouping strategies we recommend that existing classifications are assessed to determine how well variations in rates are stratified before embarking on a custom scheme. Where population sub-groups are small in some areas, it may be more reliable to use rates derived for larger areas and apply these to local populations. Inevitably, the rates used in a projection are a compromise but hopefully will still capture important dimensions of population change.     

Racial diversity,immigrants and the well-being of residents: evidence from US counties

This paper presents empirical evidence that racial diversity and immigrant population at the local level tend to be associated with lower life satisfaction for Whites by matching individual data with the county-level population data during the period 2005–2010. The magnitudes I find suggest that a ten-percentage-point increase in the share of the non-White population (approximately one half of a standard deviation) is associated with 0.006 and 0.007 points reduction in life satisfaction on a four-point scale for White men and White women, respectively. For White men, this effect appears to be driven by the percentage of the population that is Black. I also find that a ten-percentage-point increase in the percentage of the immigrant population (approximately 2 standard deviations) is associated with 0.009 and 0.021 points reduction in life satisfaction for White men and White women, respectively. The percentage of the non-White population seems to reduce older Whites’ life satisfaction more than that of younger Whites. Though the scale of the findings relating to the impact of local racial compositions and immigrant population is relatively modest, the findings may pose a challenge in the coming years as the percentage of the population that is non-White rises in the USA.     

Relationship Characteristics of Women in Interracial Same-Sex Relationships

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship characteristics of women in interracial same-sex relationships with respect to their current level of stress, internalized homophobia, perceived relationship equality, relationship satisfaction, and social support. Four groups were compared according to their current type of race relationship (ethnic minority women with White partners, White partners only, both ethnic minority partners, and White women with ethnic minority partners). No significant differences were found in terms of children and income; however, ethnic minority women with ethnic minority partners reported lower education attainment than the other groups. Relationally, there were no significant differences by race relationship for social support, relationship equality, relationship satisfaction, or stress. Internalized homophobia was lowest for interracial partnerships (ethnic minority paired with White partner). These findings are discussed in relationship to minority stress.     

Adolescents’ Sexual Initiation: The Interaction of Race/Ethnicity and Immigrant Status

This paper provides an in-depth examination of the joint effects of race/ethnicity and immigrant status on adolescents’ intercourse risk. We employ a sample of 4,535 females and 3,759 males from the National Education Longitudinal Study (NELS 88/94) who were followed for 6 years beginning in the eighth grade. We use discrete-time logistic regression models to estimate the associations of race/ethnicity and immigrant generational status with first intercourse hazard, and to evaluate the statistical interactions between race/ethnicity and immigrant status. Overall, Asian and Hispanic girls had lower and non-Hispanic Black girls had higher estimated risks relative to non-Hispanic White girls. Hispanic boys and White non-Hispanic boys had similar intercourse risks, but Black boys had higher and Asian boys lower relative risks. However, these patterns are contingent on immigrant status. Among girls, the protective effects of Asian or Hispanic identity are found only among second generation youth. Risk profiles for boys are more complex: being a third-plus generation Hispanic is associated with a higher risk while an Asian identity is associated with a lower risk only among first- and second-generation youth. These findings confirm the importance of accounting for the overlap between race/ethnicity and immigrant status in models of adolescent behavior. As the demographic diversity of the US population grows, researchers must include both race/ethnicity and immigrant status in their models of adolescent behavior.     

A comparison of internal migration by ethnic group in Great Britain using a district classification

This paper considers the ethnic dimension of changing usual residence using 1-year data from the 2001 Census, the only available comprehensive source of origin-destination flow data on Whites and non-white minority groups. The analysis identifies the variation in migration propensities at national level by ethnic group and by age and investigates spatial patterns of ethnic migration at local authority district scale using an area classification based on migration variables extracted from the 2001 Census.     

Asian Americans: growth,change, and diversity

The 1980 US census counted 3.5 million Asian Americans, up from 1.4 million in 1970. Asian Americans made up just 1.5% of the total US population of 226.5 million as of April 1, 1980, but this was the 3rd largest racial or ethnic minority after blacks and Hispanics. Asians increased far more during the 1970s (141%) than blacks (17%) or Hispanics (39%). This Bulletin examines the characteristics of Asian Americans, how their numbers have grown, where they live, how different groups vary in age structure, childbearing, health, and longevity. It reports on the kinds of households Asian Americans form and how they fare with regard to education, occupation, and income. Asian Americans are now often perceived as the model minority. As a whole, they are better educated, occupy higher rungs on the occupational ladder, and earn more than the general US population and even white Americans. This Bulletin presents the 1st comprehensive look at many important facts about Asian Americans and how the groups differ. Special tabulations of data collected in the 1980 census are provided. The 1980 census data are the latest available to give a true picture at the national level of Asian Americans and the various groups among them. The Bulletin examines the current numbers of Asian Americans and how this population is defined. The major Asian American groups are Chinese (21%), Filipinos (20%), Japanese (15%), Vietnamese (21%), Koreans (11%), and Asian Indians (10%). Except for the latest-arrived Vietnamese, the fertility of the 6 groups is lower than the white average. The following areas are also discussed: mortality and health; families and households; education; Asian youth; employment; income and poverty; and future prospects.     

The Soviet Union: population trends and dilemmas

Focus in this discussion of population trends and dilemmas in the Soviet Union is on demographic problems, data limitations, early population growth, geography and resources, the 15 republics of the Soviet Union and nationalities, agriculture and the economy, population growth over the 1950-1980 period (national trend, regional differences); age and sex composition of the population, fertility trends, nationality differentials in fertility, the reasons for fertility differentials (child care, divorce, abortion and contraception, illegitimacy), labor shortages and military personnel, mortality (mortality trends, life expectancy), reasons for mortality increases, urbanization and emigration, and future population prospects and projections. For mid-1982 the population of the Soviet Union was estimated at 270 million. The country's current rate of natural increase (births minus deaths) is about 0.8% a year, higher than current rates of natural increase in the U.S. (0.7%) and in developed countries as a whole (0.6%). Net immigration plays no part in Soviet population growth, but emigration was noticeable in some years during the 1970s, while remaining insignificant relative to total population size. National population growth has dropped by more than half in the last 2 decades, from 1.8% a year in the 1950s to 0.8% in 1980-1981, due mostly to declining fertility. The national fertility decline masks sharp differences among the 15 republics and even more so among the some 125 nationalities. In 1980, the Russian Republic had an estimated fertility rate of 1.9 births/woman, and the rate was just 2.0 in the other 2 Slavic republics, the Ukraine and Belorussia. In the Central Asian republics the rates ranged up to 5.8. Although the Russians will no doubt continue to be the dominant nationality, low fertility and a relatively higher death rate will reduce their share of the total population by less than half by the end of the century. Soviet leaders have launched a pronatalist policy which they hope will lead to an increase in fertility, at least among the dominant Slavic groups of the multinational country. More than 9 billion rubles (U.S. $12.2 billion) is to be spent over the next 5 years to implement measures aimed at increasing state aid to families with children, to be carried out step by step in different regions of the country. It is this writer's opinion that overall fertility is not likely to increase markedly despite the recent efforts of the central authorities, and the Russian share of the total population will probably continue to drop while that of Central Asian Muslim peoples increases.     

Integration or Fragmentation? Racial Diversity and the American Future

Over the next generation or two, America’s older, largely white population will increasingly be replaced by today’s disproportionately poor minority children. All future growth will come from populations other than non-Hispanic whites as America moves toward a majority-minority society by 2043. This so-called Third Demographic Transition raises important implications about changing racial boundaries in the United States, that is, about the physical, economic, and sociocultural barriers that separate different racial and ethnic groups. America’s racial transformation may place upward demographic pressure on future poverty and inequality as today’s disproportionately poor and minority children grow into adult roles. Racial boundaries will be reshaped by the changing meaning of race and ethnicity, shifting patterns of racial segregation in neighborhoods and the workplace, newly integrating (or not) friendship networks, and changing rates of interracial marriage and childbearing. The empirical literature provides complicated lessons and offers few guarantees that growing racial diversity will lead to a corresponding breakdown in racial boundaries—that whites and minorities will increasingly share the same physical and social spaces or interact as coequals. How America’s older population of elected officials and taxpayers responds today to America’s increasingly diverse population will provide a window to the future, when today’s children successfully transition (or not) into productive adult roles. Racial and ethnic inclusion will be reshaped by changing ethnoracial inequality, which highlights the need to invest in children—now.     

Asian Americans: diverse and growing

This bulletin analyzes the demographic, socioeconomic, and political characteristics of the Asian population in the US. During 1980-90, the Asian population doubled in size to 4% of total population. The Asian population is expected to double again in 20 years. The number and diversity of Asian ethnic groups has increased due to immigration. The proportion of Japanese, Chinese, and Filipino persons declined from 96% of Asians in 1970 to over 50% in 1997. Indians, Vietnamese, and Koreans outnumber Japanese ethnic groups in the US. Intermarriage is higher among US-born Asian Americans than foreign-born Asian Americans. Intermarriage is greater among female US-born Asian Americans than male US-born Asian Americans. The future size of the Asian population will depend upon how the children of these intermarriages identify themselves ethnically. Asians have advanced themselves educationally. In 1997, 42% of Asian Americans aged 25 years and older had a college or professional degree, compared to 26% of non-Hispanic Whites, 13% of Blacks, and 10% of Hispanics aged 25 years and older. Families with income below the poverty level, in 1996, amounted to 12.7% of Asians, compared to 26.4% of Hispanics, 26.1% of Blacks, and 6.5% of Whites. In 1990, over 43% of foreign born Asian Americans aged over 18 years were naturalized citizens, compared to 33% of all foreign-born residents. Asians have low rates of voter participation, but high rates of naturalization suggest greater political participation in the future. In Presidential 1996 elections, Asians tended to register as Republican, but voted Democratic.     

Ethnic Identity as a Predictor of Microaggressions Toward Blacks,Whites, and Hispanic LGBs by Blacks,Whites, and Hispanics

Results of the study suggest racial differences still exist when it comes to attitudes toward homosexuality in the United States. Findings indicate Black individuals hold significantly less favorable attitudes toward lesbian/gay/bisexual (LGB) individuals than non-Hispanic White individuals but not Hispanics, after controlling for demographics. Hispanic individuals’ attitudes toward LGBs were not significantly different from those of non-Hispanic Whites. Despite less favorable attitudes toward LGBs, however, Black Americans display a significantly lower likelihood of engaging in LGB-directed microaggressions than both non-Hispanic Whites and Hispanics. Finally, the results of the study indicate that as non-Hispanic White individuals’ ethnic identity gets stronger, their likelihood of engaging in microaggressions toward LGBs increases, more so than Black or Hispanic individuals.     

Returns on education amongst men in England and Wales: The impact of residential segregation and ethno-religious background

Individuals’ occupational and educational attainment is influenced by their ethnicity, religion and colour in the UK and elsewhere. In this paper, we analyse the impact of ethnicity, religion and colour along with residential segregation¹ and socio-economic deprivation on returns to education for men in England and Wales. We analyse the 2001 UK census data by employing multi-level logistic regression models. It is found that non-White groups including Christian Black-African, UK born Sikh-Indians and South Asian Muslims are found to suffer an ethnic penalty compared to Christian White-British. While there is evidence to suggest that Muslim men may experience a greater penalty compared to some non-Whites other non-Muslim groups too face ethno-religious penalties, sometimes even more severely such as in the case of Christian Black-Africans. Socio-economic difficulties faced by ethnic minorities are also linked to spatial segregation only when associated with high levels of area deprivation. This suggests that what matters may not be segregation per se, but whether or not it is associated with deprivation.     

凉山彝族自治州少数民族人口变化研究

本文根据凉山州历年人口资料和最近几年全国1％人口抽样调查数据,分析讨论了凉山彝族自治州少数民族人口的变化。文章发现,总体上,民主改革以来,特别是改革开放以来,凉山州少数民族人口发展取得了较大的进展,但少数民族人口还存在着人口增长较快,少数民族人口文化素质偏低,人口负担重等问题,影响了少数民族地区人口和经济的发展,文章认为当前凉山社会经济发展正处于“战略关键期”,人口问题特别是少数民族人口问题是重要的决定性因素之一,是实现各民族共同繁荣的重要保证,必须予以高度重视。文章提出,要通过稳定人口规模,提高人口素质,开发人力资源,有目标、分阶段地推进人口发展,实现民族地区人口、经济、资源环境的可持续发展。     

Some understandings about the population development of the minorities in China]

China is a Socialist country which is composed of numerous ethnic groups. In addition to the Han people, there are 55 minorities in various parts of China. Since liberation (1949), the lives of the minorities have improved greatly. There has also been reasonable advancement in their local economic situation, cultural and educational establishments, and health care, and the population growth among ethnic minorities has also increased rapidly. At the present time, the rate of population growth among the minorities is extremely high, and the age structure of the minority population is young. The custom of early marriage and having children at a young age is still popular. The levels of economic development, cultural and educational establishments and medical and health care are still too low to satisfy current needs of the local people. Within a short period of time, population growth among the minorities may reach among climax, and the problem of overpopulation may become more serious. This new trend is not encouraging for the economic and cultural development of the minority people. In order to protect the economic situation of the minority population, various rules and regulations should be established according to local situations, and work in family planning and birth control is also urgently needed for the minorities.     

Income Rich and Asset Poor: A Multilevel Analysis of Racial and Ethnic Differences in Housing Values among Baby Boomers

Race and ethnicity, as well as cohort status are strong predictors of asset ownership including home ownership and housing values. Yet, seldom have the two concepts been linked. Additionally, potentially important determinants such as business income have often times been excluded from the analyses despite findings suggesting that business income may be an important indicator for racial and ethnic minorities who would otherwise be relegated to employment in low status jobs in the secondary labor market. Using the most recent data from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample, this study examines: (1) How Asian, Black, Hispanic and white baby boomers compare in terms of housing values; and (2) What role business income and interest, dividends and rental income have on housing values for Asian, Black, Hispanic and white baby boomers. Significant racial and ethnic differences in housing values exist, and business income and interest, dividends and rental income are all significant indicators of housing values for all groups.     

Neighbourhood Ethnic Density Effects on Behavioural and Cognitive Problems Among Young Racial/Ethnic Minority Children in the US and England: A Cross-National Comparison

Studies on adult racial/ethnic minority populations show that the increased concentration of racial/ethnic minorities in a neighbourhood—a so-called ethnic density effect—is associated with improved health of racial/ethnic minority residents when adjusting for area deprivation. However, this literature has focused mainly on adult populations, individual racial/ethnic groups, and single countries, with no studies focusing on children of different racial/ethnic groups or comparing across nations. This study aims to compare neighbourhood ethnic density effects on young children’s cognitive and behavioural outcomes in the US and in England. We used data from two nationally representative birth cohort studies, the US Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Birth Cohort and the UK Millennium Cohort Study, to estimate the association between own ethnic density and behavioural and cognitive development at 5 years of age. Findings show substantial heterogeneity in ethnic density effects on child outcomes within and between the two countries, suggesting that ethnic density effects may reflect the wider social and economic context. We argue that researchers should take area deprivation into account when estimating ethnic density effects and when developing policy initiatives targeted at strengthening and improving the health and development of racial and ethnic minority children.