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1.
Uncertain lifetime, fertility and social security 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1
Akira Yakita 《Journal of population economics》2001,14(4):635-640
Investigating the effects of population aging on fertility and economic growth, we show that an increase in life expectancy
lowers the fertility rate and raises life-cycle savings, and that a pay-as-you-go social security does not reverse the effect
on fertility.
Received: 10 March 2000/Accepted: 28 April 2000 相似文献
2.
Aging, fertility, social security and political equilibrium 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
We analyze the effect of population aging on the political choice of the size of a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) social security system,
incorporating the heterogeneity of individuals in their preference for having children, and hence the endogenous fertility
choices of individuals, into a simple overlapping generations model. We show that population aging may result in an increase
in the contribution rate, increasing the share of the retired population who prefer a higher contribution rate; and that,
if the system involves redistribution between retirees with different contributions, the increased contribution rate raises
the number of individuals who have children, i.e., future contributors. 相似文献
3.
Tatsuya Omori 《Journal of population economics》2009,22(3):585-601
Introducing a fertility decision and child care cost into an overlapping generations model with public education and social
security, we examine the effects of these public policies on fertility. We show that an increase in income tax, which finances
social security benefits and public investment in education, increases fertility. On the other hand, with a constant tax rate,
a change in the allocation from social security benefits to public investment in education decreases fertility and, with a
constant social security tax, the effect of education tax on fertility is neutral.
相似文献
4.
Endogenous fertility,mortality and growth 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Economic and demographic outcomes are determined jointly in a choice-theoretic model of fertility, mortality and capital
accumulation. There is an endogenous population of reproductive agents who belong to dynastic families of overlapping generations
connected through altruism. In addition to choosing savings and births, parents may reduce (infant) deaths by incurring expenditures
on health-care which is also provided by the government. A generalised production technology accounts for long-run endogenous
growth with short-run transitional dynamics. The analysis yields testable time series and cross-section implications which
accord with the empirical evidence on the relationship between demography and development.
Received: 22 April 1996 / Accepted: 2 April 1998 相似文献
5.
Koichi Miyazaki 《Journal of population economics》2013,26(3):1233-1250
This paper theoretically studies how unfunded pay-as-you-go social security affects economic growth, the fertility rate, and welfare in a neoclassical growth model. In addition, this paper considers a more general form of child-rearing cost, which is a mixture of time and money. The first observation is that whether the fertility rate increases or not by the expansion of the pay-as-you-go social security depends on (1) the size of the monetary child-rearing cost relative to the time spent on child-rearing and (2) the current fertility and interest rate in laissez faire. The second observation is that income per worker can increase by an expansion in pay-as-you-go social security when the output elasticity of capital is sufficiently small and the payroll tax rate is high. The last finding is that welfare can be improved even though capital is underaccumulated in an economy. 相似文献
6.
7.
The paper aims to ascertain the extent to which saving and fertility decisions are affected by the availability and attractiveness of market-based or state-provided alternatives to the family as a source of old-age support. Subordinately, the paper aims to bring evidence to bear on the assumption that fertility is endogenous and jointly determined with saving, and to test two alternative hypotheses about individual motivations. The saving and fertility implications of two alternative models of family choice — based one on the assumption of pure self-interest, the other on that of intergenerational altruism — are first derived theoretically. Saving and fertility equations are then estimated from Italian time-series data, using as explanatory variables the market rate of interest, the social security deficit, various measures of capital market accessibility and social security coverage, and a number of income and wage variables. Particularly worthy of note is the result that a fully-funded increase in social security coverage raises saving, while an increase in the social security deficit has the opposite effect. The empirical findings appear to support the assumption that fertility is endogenous and jointly determined with saving, and to favour the hypothesis that individual decisions are motivated by self-interest rather than intergenerational altruism. Some of the policy implications are briefly discussed in the concluding section.While retaining responsibility for any errors, the authors wish to thank Carlo Casarosa, Wolfram Richter, Ed Wolff and three anonymous referees for helpful comments. Financial support from MURST 40%, under national project Capitale, Capitale Umano, Sicurezza Sociale e Dinamiche Demografische Endogene, is gratefully acknowledged. 相似文献
8.
Jeffrey A. Burr 《Social indicators research》1995,34(3):339-365
This paper develops and examines a community-level model of fertility, incorporating both sociological and economic theoretical perspectives. Data from several government and private sources are analyzed in a series of reduced-form, multivariate regression models. Generally, the results demonstrate that while the conceptual relationships from both schools receive some empirical support, the social structural characteristics (such as social class, religious and ethnic composition) offer somewhat greater explanatory power. In a subsequent analytic stage, principal components analysis is employed in order to estimate a series of revised models, clarifying some inconsistencies found when employing a more “naive” model testing strategy. 相似文献
9.
William B. Clifford 《Demography》1971,8(1):37-48
Modern versus traditional value orientations based on the Kluckhohn and Strodtbeck schema are related to family size preferences and birth control effectiveness. Value orientations are viewed as mediating the relationship between socioeconomic status and the fertility behavior variables. Interviews with a probability sample of women in Lexington, Kentucky, provide the data for testing the hypothesized relationships. The results indicate that both value orientations and socioeconomic status are related to fertility behavior. The inference can be made that value orientations aid in interpreting the relationship between socioeconomic status and fertility behavior but that other status-related variables are operating. 相似文献
10.
Time preference, international migration, and social security 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Volker Meier 《Journal of population economics》2000,13(1):127-146
This paper analyzes both the formation of long-run migration incentives and the consequences of a regime change from “autarky”
to “free migration” in an overlapping-generations framework with two countries. Under autarky the countries may differ with
respect to their aggregate savings rate or with respect to their pension-wage ratio. It is shown that an individual prefers
to live in a country where the capital-labor ratio is close to the Golden Rule level and where his characteristics are relatively
scarce. Both the migration incentives and the consequences of free migration are determined by these two effects.
Received: 2 March 1998/Accepted: 10 February 1999 相似文献
11.
Based on the notions of parental altruism, sibling competition, and family constitution, we present a self-enforcing model where heterogeneous children have economic incentives to supply family-specific merit goods (e.g., companionship) to their parents for securing inheritable wealth and the altruistic parents decide on division rules according to an optimizing behavior. In our analysis of intergenerational cooperation and intragenerational competition, the altruistic parents care about the efficiency of the children-provided merit goods and the equity of the children’s incomes. For an optimal allocation of wealth, the parents strategically partition it into two pools: one to be distributed equally whereas the other unequally according to their children’s supply of merit goods. We look at motivation of the parents in allocating their wealth to the two different pools. The analysis of endogenous division rules has implications for the compatibility between equal postmortem transfers and unequal inter vivos gifts, both of which are consistent with parental altruism. 相似文献
12.
Geoff Childs 《Journal of Population Research》2001,18(1):52-67
Using the family system as a framework, this study investigates the connection between old-age security concerns and aggregate
fertility in Sama and Lho, two ethnically Tibetan villages of highland Nepal. The microdemographic approach reveals a difference
in family systems between the two villages that results in Sama having a significantly lower level of fertility than Lho.
The key difference lies in the practice of Sama’s (but not Lho’s) householders of designating a daughter to be a nun, a strategy
meant to retain female labour within the household and thereby guarantee a caretaker in old age. Although the effect of this
practice on individual fertility is unclear, the comparison with Lho reveals how it sharply curtails aggregate fertility by
preventing nearly one in five women from marrying. In this case the motivation to ensure old-age security acts as an unintentional
preventive check on population growth. Comparisons with other societies illustrate how the population of Sama combines elements
of both the historical European and Asian demographic experiences. 相似文献
13.
Schmahl W 《Journal of population economics》1990,3(3):159-177
This paper gives an overview over some central aspects of the highly complex topic, pointing out, e.g. the need for more longitudinal research in understanding effects of structural changes in demography and economy on social security. Starting from challenges by an ageing population for health and pension schemes it is briefly discussed whether changes in labour force participation or restructuring public expenditure can soften financing problems. Concerning reforms in pension schemes first changing retirement ages is briefly discussed and then some of the shortcomings in the debate on capital funding versus pay-as-you-go fincancing.Revised, updated and extended version of a lecture, given at the First Annual Congress of the European Society for Population Economics, Rotterdam, September 18, 1987. Revision and extension were inspired by two referees. 相似文献
14.
Van Dijk F 《Journal of population economics》1998,11(3):345-371
The issue is addressed whether assistance to persons in need can be left to the ‘family’ and the ‘community’. In that case
people depend on their social networks. The support a person receives through a given network of social ties is examined.
However, ties are diverse and subject to change. By means of a model of the dynamics of social ties, the conditions for adequate
private support are analyzed. The sustainability of private support over time is examined by incorporating the impact on social
ties of lending and receiving support. It is shown that support is only an effective alternative in a limited number of situations.
Received: 2 January 1997 / Accepted: 2 February 1998 相似文献
15.
Social security,social welfare and the aging population 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
This study examines the effects of pay-as-you-go social security programs in aging economies when the middle-aged both educate
their dependent children and subsidize the retirement of the old. Using an overlapping generations framework in which agents
are three-period lived but timing of death in the third period is uncertain, we analyze the effects of social security tax
schemes, under various demographic assumptions, on capital accumulation, education expenditures, social welfare, and economic
growth. We find that in many cases social security crowds out education, and reduces economic growth and social welfare.
Received: 29 April 1998/Accepted: 3 March 1999 相似文献
16.
Gender equity, social institutions and the future of fertility 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Peter McDonald 《Journal of Population Research》2000,17(1):1-16
Sustained very low levels of fertility in advanced countries can be explained by incoherence between the levels of gender
equity applying in different social institutions. In countries with very low levels of fertility, high levels of gender equity
are postulated in institutions that deal with people as individuals, while low levels of gender equity apply in institutions
that deal with people as members of families. 相似文献
17.
18.
Social security and fertility: An international perspective 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A number of population scholars have asserted that social security programs such as old-age programs lead to decreased fertility levels because parents need not rely on children for "security" in old age. There is, however, a paucity of empirical data on the above. This paper analyzes 67 countries and shows that social security programs have a measurable negative effect on subsequent levels of fertility. In fact, the social security programs appear to have as much of an independent impact on fertility as do the traditional correlates of fertility (infant mortality, education and per capita income). 相似文献
19.
This paper examines the role assumed by value orientations in the explanation of fertility behavior. Specifically the concern is with the extent to which value orientations intervene between, or mediate, the relationship between socioeconomic status and fertility behavior. The relationships between socioeconomic status, four types of value orientations and three aspects of fertility behavior are examined among males in India. In most instances value orientations provide neither the sole nor the partial interpretations of the relationship between socioeconomic status and fertility. The results of this investigation suggest once again the inadequacy of value orientations as predictors of fertility behavior. 相似文献
20.
We examine the effects of child policies on both transitional dynamics and long-term demo-economic outcomes in an overlapping-generations neoclassical growth model à la Chakraborty (J Econ Theory 116(1):119–137, 2004) extended with endogenous fertility under the assumption of weak altruism towards children. The government invests in public health, and an individual’s survival probability at the end of youth depends on health expenditure. We show that multiple development regimes can exist. However, poverty or prosperity does not necessarily depend on the initial conditions, since they are the result of how a child policy is designed. A child tax, for example, can be used effectively to enable those economies that were entrapped in poverty to prosper. There is also a long-term welfare-maximising level of the child tax. We show that a child tax can be used to increase capital accumulation, escape from poverty and maximise long-term welfare also when (a) a public pay-as-you-go pension system is in place and (b) the government issues an amount of public debt. Interestingly, there also exists a couple child tax–health tax that can be used to find the second-best optimum optimorum. In addition, we show that results are robust to the inclusion of decisions regarding the child quantity–quality trade-off under the assumption of impure altruism. In particular, there exists a threshold value of the child tax below (resp. above) which child quality spending is unaffordable (resp. affordable) and different scenarios are in existence. 相似文献