The Effect of Couple Disagreement about Child‐Timing Intentions: A Parity‐Specific Approach

Using couple data from a longitudinal study conducted in Italy, a country with persistently low fertility levels, we examined the effect of partners' discrepant child‐timing intentions on reproductive behavior. We found that the effect of couple disagreement on subsequent fertility is parity‐specific and does not depend on whether only the male or the female partner intends to have a(nother) child. The disagreement tends to produce an intermediate childbearing outcome at parities zero and one, while the outcome is shifted more toward agreement on not having a(nother) child at parity two. The empirical evidence suggests that gender equality in reproductive decisionmaking is not driven by partners' equal bargaining power or partners' equal access to economic resources. The findings indicate that the predictive power of child‐timing intentions strongly improves if both partners' views are considered in fertility models, and thus support the adoption of couple analysis in fertility research.     

Book Review: Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict. Michael T. Klare. New York: Owl Books, 2001

Population and Environment -     

Longevity Among Hunter‐ Gatherers: A Cross‐Cultural Examination

Post‐reproductive longevity is a robust feature of human life and not only a recent phenomenon caused by improvements in sanitation, public health, and medical advances. We argue for an adaptive life span of 68‐78 years for modern Homo sapiens based on our analysis of mortality profiles obtained from small‐scale hunter‐gatherer and horticultural populations from around the world. We compare patterns of survivorship across the life span, rates of senescence, modal ages at adult death, and causes of death. We attempt to reconcile our results with those derived from paleodemographic studies that characterize prehistoric human lives as “nasty, brutish, and short,” and with observations of recent acculturation among contemporary subsistence populations. We integrate information on age‐specific dependency and resource production to help explain the adaptive utility of longevity in humans from an evolutionary perspective.     

The One‐Child Policy in Shanghai: Acceptance and Internalization

China's one‐child policy is a major example of social engineering and the subject of human rights concerns. Given the significance of the policy, it is important to ascertain the attitudes of Chinese citizens. We conducted interviews in 2003 with residents of Shanghai who were of childbearing age either at the policy's inception or at the time of the interview. Our respondents, who were generally well educated, did not perceive the policy as extraordinary when it was introduced; resignation to one more intrusive government regulation was mixed with understanding and even approval of the policy. People talked about the political and social context, demographic concerns, family economic strategy, and the results of government‐engineered gender equality. Among the young interviewees, the context has changed from a population striving to get by under tight government control to a much richer population that is upwardly mobile and perceives their local government to be basically beneficial. The one‐child family is considered normal; few are still concerned with the policy per se, while others see it as unnecessary. The one‐child policy seems to reflect Shanghainese current preferences; its status as a legal requirement may be largely irrelevant.     

Two‐and‐a‐Half Cheers: A Review Essay on the International Migration Report 2002*

Amy Chua, World on Fire: How Exporting Free Market Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability Surjit S. Bhalla, Imagine There's No Country: Poverty, Inequality, and Growth in the Era of Globalization John Firor and Judith Jacobsen, The Crowded Greenhouse: Population, Climate Change, and Creating a Sustainable World Joel Perlmann and Mary C. Waters (eds.), The New Race Question: How the Census Counts Multiracial Individuals     

China's New Demographic Reality: Learning from the 2010 Census

China conducted its sixth modern census in 2010, recording a total of 1.34 billion people. This article presents an overview of the early census results. The data are of reasonable quality but contain some apparent defects where adjustments may be required. The census confirms that China has entered the era of demographic modernity and depicts the vast transformation of the country's rural‐urban distribution. Life expectancy has risen by 3–4 years in the decade since the last census, while fertility remains well below replacement—probably as low as 1.5 births per woman—and the sex ratio at birth is still significantly elevated. Low fertility and falling old‐age mortality are leading to continued and rapid population aging. Several coastal provinces grew by as much as 40 percent in the last decade, while a number of inland provinces have recorded population decline. China has reached an overall urban proportion of 50 percent.