Falling Short of Highest Life Expectancy: How Many Americans Might Have Been Alive in the Twentieth Century?

Life expectancy at birth in the United States during the twentieth century was lower than in many other highly developed countries. We investigate how this mortality disadvantage in the last 100 years translates into the number of hypothetical lives lost and their sex and age structure. We estimate the hypothetical US population if it had experienced in each decade since 1900 the mortality level of the country with the then highest life expectancy and compare the results to the actual figures in 2000. By 2000, the number of additional people who could have been alive had the mortality levels in the United States been as low as those in countries with the highest life expectancy was 66 million. This number is distributed equally between males and females. Suboptimal mortality at reproductive ages is crucial for the cumulative effect of potential lives lost, resulting from premature deaths of women who could still become first‐time mothers or bear additional children. Out of the 66 million additional persons who could have been alive in 2000, 45 million are attributable to those indirect deaths. Although the differences in the composition of the population by sex and age under the two mortality regimes are minor, the majority of people who might have been alive—54 million—were of working age or younger.     

How Many People Can China Support?

MuchhasbeensaidofChina'spopulationproblem.Currelltly,thenationhas1.25billiollpeople,themostpopulouscountryintheworld.Mostexpertsagreethatintileyearstocome,itspopulationwillcontinuetogrowuntil2050,whenazerogrowthrateispredicted.Bythen,thenation'spopulationwillreachanunprecedelltedlevelfI.6billion.Tilequestionarisesllaturallyfhow1llanypeoplecanChinareallysustain?WillChinabeoverwhelmedsomedaybyover-population?Awidelyheldviewarguesthatatmaximum,ChinacansustainI.6billionpeople.Thisviewwasfirstp…     

How Should Classical Test Theory Have Defined Validity?

Classical test theory defined the predictive validity of a test as the ordinary Pearson correlation between scores on the test and scores on a validation criterion. For some purposes this definition is satisfactory, but for others it leads to complications, because derivation of familiar equations relating validity and reliability requires an independent assumption of uncorrelated errors of measurement. The present paper proposes an alternate definition of validity that avoids difficulties arising from correlated error scores and is more consistent with standard definitions of true score, error score, and reliability in the classical theory.     

Fifty Years After the Social Indicators Movement: Has the Promise Been Fulfilled?

In spite of its currency both in academic research and political rhetoric, there are numerous attempts to define and conceptualize the social cohesion concept but there has been paid little attention to provide a rigorous and empirically tested definition. There are even fewer studies that address social cohesion in a framework of cross-cultural validation of the indicators testing the equivalence of the factorial structure across countries. Finally, as far as we know there is no study that attempt to provide an empirically tested multilevel definition of social cohesion specifying a Multilevel Structural Equation Model. This study aims to cover this gap. First, we provide a theoretical construct of social cohesion taking into account not only its multidimensionality but also its multilevel structure. In the second step, to test the validity of this theoretical construct, we perform a multilevel confirmatory factor analysis in order to verify if the conceptual structure suggested in first step holds. In addition, we test the cross-level structural equivalence and the measurement invariance of the model in order to verify if the same multilevel model of social cohesion holds across the 29 countries analysed. In the final step, we specify a second-order multilevel CFA model in order to identify the existence of a general factor that can be called “social cohesion” operating in society that accounts for the surface phenomena that we observe.     

How Many Times Has the Human Population Doubled? Comparisons with Cancer

Along with decreasing doubling times as a function of increasing rates of population growth over the past several thousand years, the human species has shown striking parallels with a malignant growth. Some cancers also display decreasing doubling times of cell proliferation during the most rapidly growing phase. At 6 billion, the number of doublings reached by the human population as of 1998 is 32.5, with the 33rd doubling (8.59 billion) expected early in the next century. In terms of total animal biomass, including that of domestic animals under human control, the 33rd doubling of human-related biomass has been passed. In terms of energy use, which is a more accurate, index of the global ecological impact of humans, the human species has passed its 36th doubling. These calculations are important because, in addition to the number of doublings, the human population is showing several important similarities with a malignant organismic tumor, which results in death of the host organism at between 37 and 40 doublings. At current growth rates, the number of individual humans will reach those levels within 200–400 years from the present, but the ecological impact will be felt much sooner since the number of doublings of energy consumed will pass 37 early in the next century. These observations support the hypothesis that the human species has become a malignant process on the planet that is likely to result in the equivalent, for humans, of ecosystem death, or at least in a radical transformation of the ecosystem, the early phases of which are being observed.     

“It Would Have Been Impossible Before:” Reflections on Current Gay Life in Estonia

Estonian gays and lesbians currently enjoy more freedom than ever before. However, they still lack many basic legal protections as well an ongoing, organized political movement. The findings of this small, exploratory study along with the personal experiences of the first author, suggests how cultural factors like individualism, a strong preference for privacy, and distrust of the government not only impede political action and community organization but also obstruct empirical investigation.     

How much does income matter in neighborhood choice?

There is a substantial literature on the residential mobility process itself and a smaller contribution on how households make neighborhood choices, especially with respect to racial composition. We extend that literature by evaluating the role of income and socioeconomic status in the neighborhood choice process for minorities. We use individual household data from the Los Angeles Family and Neighborhood Study to investigate the comparative choices of white and Hispanic households in the Los Angeles metropolitan area. We show that income and education are important explanations for the likelihood of choosing neighborhoods. But at the same time, own race preferences clearly play a role. While whites with more income choose more white neighborhoods, Hispanics with more income choose less Hispanic neighborhoods. One interpretation is that both groups are translating resources, such as income and education, into residence in whiter and ostensibly, higher status neighborhoods.

How Wide Is the Income Gap in China?

Thanks to the introduction of the reform and opening up policy, China has achieved rapid economic development and recorded a significant rise in the income level of its urban and rural residents as a whole. However, the level of income varies from industry to industry, from rural to urban areas, and from region to region, and the gap is widening. Estimates show that the Gini coefficient (an economic indicator measuring disparities in personal income) in China was 0.424 in 1996, 0.456 in 1998,…     

How Many More Missing Women? Excess Female Mortality and Prenatal Sex Selection, 1970–2050

Sex‐based discrimination has resulted in severe demographic imbalances between males and females, culminating in a large number of “missing women” in several countries around the world. We provide new estimates and projections of the number of missing females and of the roles played by prenatal and postnatal factors in this imbalance. We estimate time series of the number of missing females, the number of excess female deaths, and the number of missing female births for the world and selected countries. Estimates are provided for 1970–2010 and projections are made from 2010 to 2050. We show that the estimates of these different indicators are consistent with one another and account for the dynamics of the population of missing females over time. We conclude that the number of missing females has steadily risen in the past decades, reaching 126 million in 2010, and the number is expected to peak at 150 million in 2035. Excess mortality was the dominant cause of missing females in the past, and this is expected to remain the case in future decades in spite of the recent rise of prenatal sex selection. The annual number of newly missing females reached 3.4 million in 2010 and is expected to remain above 3 million every year until 2050.     

Forest Cover to Double in 50 Years

China's forested area is expected to double by themiddle of this century.The State Forestry Administration (SFA) has unveiledan afforestation program aimed at improving thecountry's overall ecological environment.The newly-drafted blueprint outlines four projects tobe carried out in four regions: the environmentallyfragile upper reaches of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers;arid northern areas and the state-run key forest zones inthe northeast and east China.Wang Zhibao, director of the SFA, s…     

Have family income mobility patterns changed?

We examine the mobility of individuals in the United States based on equivalent family income-that is, total income of all family members adjusted for family size according to the equivalence scale implicit in the U.S. poverty line. Our analysis, which tracks movements across quintiles, centers on four questions: How much movement is there across the family income distribution? How has this mobility changed over time? To what extent are the movements attributable to factors related to changes in family composition versus events in the labor markets? In light of major socioeconomic changes occurring in the quarter-century under study, have the determinants of mobility changed over time? Our findings indicate that mobility rates in the 1980s differed little from those in the 1970s. However, individuals in families headed by a young person or a person without a college education were less likely to experience upward mobility in the 1980s than in the 1970s.     

How are the Kids Doing? How do We Know?

With a focus on the United States, this paper addresses the basic social indicators question: How are we doing? More specifically, with respect to children, how are our kids (including adolescents and youths) doing? These questions can be addressed by comparisons: (1) to past historical values, (2) to other contemporaneous units (e.g., comparisons among subpopulations, states, regions, countries), or (3) to goals or other externally established standards. The Child and Youth Well-Being Index (CWI), which we have developed over the past decade, uses all three of these points of comparison. The CWI is a composite index based on 28 social indicator time series of various aspects of the well-being of children and youth in American society that date back to 1975, which is used as a base year for measuring changes (improvements or deterioration) in subsequent years. The CWI is evidence-based not only in the sense that it uses time series of empirical data for its construction, but also because the 28 indicators are grouped into seven domains of well-being or areas of social life that have been found to define the conceptual space of the quality of life in numerous studies of subjective well-being. Findings from research using the CWI reported in the paper include: (1) trends in child and youth well-being in the United States over time, (2) international comparisons, and (3) best-practice analyses.     

Relatively Different? How do Gender Differences in Well-Being Depend on Paid and Unpaid Work in Europe?

Absolute as well as relative hours of paid and unpaid work may influence well-being. This study investigates whether absolute hours spent on paid work and housework account for the lower well-being among women as compared to men in Europe, and whether the associations between well-being and hours of paid work and housework differ by gender attitudes and social context. Attitudes towards women’s and men’s paid work and housework obligations may influence how beneficial or detrimental it is to spend time on these activities, as may social comparison of one’s own hours to the number of hours commonly spent among similar others. A group of 13,425 women and men from 25 European countries are analysed using country fixed-effects models. The results suggest that while men’s well-being appears to be unaffected by hours of paid work and housework, women’s well-being increases with increased paid working hours and decreases with increasing housework hours. Gender differences in time spent on paid work and housework account for a third of the European gender difference in well-being and are thus one reason that women have lower well-being than men have. Gender attitudes do not appear to modify the associations between hours and well-being, but there is a tendency for women’s well-being to be higher the less housework they do compared to other women in the same family situation and country. However, absolute hours of paid work and housework appear to be more important to women’s well-being than relative hours.

HIV Carriers to Exceed 10 Million in 10 Years

Latest statistics released by the Ministry of Health shows that by the end of September 2001, there were 20,711 cases of HIV carriers reported in China. Of those, 741 were AIDS patients and 397 had already died. The first AIDS case in China was reported in 1985 and so far it has been reported in all the provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions). AIDS is spreading fast in China, especially among people on dope, due to a weak awareness of the deadly disease among …     

Eighty Counties and Cities Have Become Well-off in China

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