FINANCIAL MARKET VARIABLES DO NOT PREDICT REAL ACTIVITY

The past decade has seen an extensive empirical reassessment of the information content of financial market variables sensitive to monetary policy. Particularly provocative are recent papers suggesting that some interest rates and interest rate spreads contain more information about economic activity than monetary aggregates. This paper reviews important methodological pitfalls in these studies. We then show that none of the commonly employed measures of monetary policy contain incremental information useful in forecasting real economic activity. Two conclusions are possible. Either monetary policy innovations have no significant real effects, or we (collectively) have failed in our efforts to measure monetary policy. ( JEL E52)     

LEARNING TO NOT LABOR:

This article examines the micro-analytical strategies of identity formation among individuals attempting to transform their ascribed social-class position into an achieved social-class position. The interpersonal strategies discussed include associational embracement, associational distancing, and presentations of self. Data come from forty in-depth, semi-structured interviews with college seniors (twenty men and twenty women) from a large northeastern public university. The students were sampled systematically using a randomized list provided by the Office of Institutional Research. Results suggest that social transformation is difficult, in part, because of the interpersonal strategies in which individuals must engage. Self-avowals are not enough to achieve a desired social identity; rather, individuals must engage in the requisite identity-work activities in order to be successful in social transformation. These results suggest a convergence between social identity theory and identity theory to the extent that individuals must be successful in their role enactments if they hope to gain membership in a particular social group.     

HOW EDUCATION AFFECTS ATTITUDE TO PROTEST:

In a previous study, the authors found that among whites education affected attitude to protest in four ways: by raising commitment to civil liberties; by reducing support for violence; by increasing knowledge of protest justifications; and by altering a person's position in society, hence one's interests and identifications. This study shows that the same set of forces accounts for the variability of correlations between education and protest attitudes among samples of black respondents. Differences in the results among blacks as compared to whites chiefly relate to issue-specific protests. Here results diverge because black experience serves as an alternative to formal education for increasing awareness of protest justifications and identification with protestors.     

SELECTIVE RECOGNITION: HOW TO RECOGNIZE DONORS TO INCREASE CHARITABLE GIVING

Recognizing donors by revealing their identities is important for increasing charitable giving. Using a framed field experiment, we show that all forms of recognition that we examine increase donations relative to the baseline treatment, and recognizing only the highest or only the lowest donors has the strongest and significant effect. We argue that selective recognition creates tournament‐like incentives. Recognizing the highest donors activates the desire to seek a “positive prize” of prestige, while recognizing the lowest donors activates the desire to avoid a “negative prize” of shame. We discuss how selective recognition can be used by charities to increase donations. (JEL C93, D64)     

THE MULTIPLE FORMS OF AGGRESSIVENESS BETWEEN MARITAL PARTNERS: HOW DO WE IDENTIFY THEM?

One of the difficulties in conducting research that compares violent to nonviolent marriages, is determining exactly which couples are violent and what is the direction of that violence: husband-to-wife, wife-to-husband, or bi-directional. To illustrate this problem, data on the incidence of violence in 103 couples are presented, based on wife's report only, husband's report only, or both spouses' reports. Incidence figures based on the report of either spouse were approximately 100% higher than the incidence based on agreements between spouses. Although slightly more wives than husbands reported severe husband-to-wife aggression, other forms of aggression were reported by more husbands than wives. Discussion focuses on the limitations of frequency data, alone, in assessing marital violence.     

HOW TO HAGGLE and TO STAY FIRM: BARTER AS HIDDEN PRICE DISCRIMINATION

Barter transactions, conducted openly by established corporations, play an increasingly significant role in the U.S. economy. The model developed here helps explain why firms use barter and yields predictions concerning the circumstances under which barter is likely to occur. It is shown that when two firms barter goods used as inputs, price discrimination occurs. This price discrimination is hidden from the firms' other customers because the real values of the transacted goods to the barterers are different from the accounting prices used in the transaction. Since price discrimination that is observed by potential customers might have an adverse effect on the selling firm's future bargaining power, barter will have value as a means of hiding price discrimination.     

WHY MANY ELIGIBLE INDIVIDUALS CHOOSE NOT TO GO ON WELFARE

This article investigates why many eligible for welfare do not participate. We show that on-the-job wage-rising potential is the key factor motivating nonparticipation. Although individuals with very low earnings and little wage-rising potential are typically welfare recipients, those with good wage-rising potential may choose to work, participate in old age, or never participate. Nonparticipation remains the best choice for eligible individuals with large wage-rising potential even if universal old-age social security is available. We will also apply this model to a comprehensive welfare system in Hong Kong.(JEL H53 , I38 , J31 )     

HOW MULTIPROBLEM FAMILIES TRY TO FIND SUPPORT IN SOCIAL SERVICES

This article aims to contribute to a better understanding of the relationship between multiproblem families and social agencies, and in particular of how families try to find support in larger systems. Usually, multiproblem families are also multi‐assisted, since the several problems they live with attract intervention from a wide range of social protection services. This research used a qualitative approach; data were collected from 56 multiproblem households, using a semi‐structured interview. Findings suggest seven categories of families: ‘outsider’ families (who reject the existence of problems, so never try to find support); ‘resigned’ families (who give up looking for formal support after a first refusal, and continue coping on their own); ‘persistent’ families (who insist in getting support from several social agencies); ‘over‐needy’ families (any minimal difficulty justifies the search for formal support); ‘balanced’ families (who apply for formal support only when they experience difficulties in dealing with problems); ‘imprudent’ families (these ask social agencies for support only when problems reach an unsustainable level); and ‘ignored’ families (who do not try to get support, and no formal help reaches them).     

HOW TO IMPUTE INTERACTIONS, SQUARES, AND OTHER TRANSFORMED VARIABLES

Researchers often carry out regression analysis using data that have missing values. Missing values can be filled in using multiple imputation, but imputation is tricky if the regression includes interactions, squares, or other transformations of the regressors. In this paper, we examine different approaches to imputing transformed variables; and we find one simple method that works well across a variety of circumstances. Our recommendation is to transform, then impute —i.e., calculate the interactions or squares in the incomplete data and then impute these transformations like any other variable. The transform-then-impute method yields good regression estimates, even though the imputed values are often inconsistent with one another. It is tempting to try and "fix" the inconsistencies in the imputed values, but methods that do so lead to biased regression estimates. Such biased methods include the passive imputation strategy implemented by the popular ice command for Stata.     

DO DRINKERS KNOW WHEN TO SAY WHEN? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF DRUNK DRIVING

This paper presents empirical evidence that an individual's decision to drive while drunk is negatively affected by the expected full price of driving drunk. The analysis uses a unique data set containing information on self-reported drunk driving matched to state-level drunk driving policies as well as to state excise taxes on beer. These are hypothesized and found to affect drunk driving. Further, we find interesting racial differences but surprisingly small differences by gender in the effect of socioeconomic and policy variables on drunk driving propensities.     

"MEN I MESS WITH DON'T HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH AIDS":

Pivotal in HIV/STD intervention and prevention is how individuals perceive risk. This article discusses how ethnotheory can be used to understand the underpinnings of risk perception from the subject's perspective. Ethnotheory's theoretical and methodological character extends present models used to explain sex-related HIV behaviors and provides insights into risk perception useful for the development of effective intervention strategies. Four detailed ethnographic excerpts from low-income African American and Mexican American men and women illustrate how people form perceptions of risk and how information gained through ethnotheory is useful in the design of culturally relevant interventions.     

刘威葳:成功的境界并非刻意追求

西方媒体评价她的演技"像钻石一样熠熠生辉";外国电影人士认为,她是"继张曼玉之后,又一身上具有东方典雅气质的中国女演员."好莱坞最大的经纪管理公司CAA,己与她签约,本年度她将担纲主演一部文艺片和一部商业片.     

HOW TO STAKE A TERRITORY IN THE FIELD OF FAMILY THERAPY IN THREE EASY LESSONS

Three strategies to claim a piece of territory in the increasingly populated field of family therapy are spelled out and exemplified for easy use by readers.     

THE ROLE OF EXPECTATIONS IN ADOLESCENT SCHOOLING CHOICES: DO YOUTHS RESPOND TO ECONOMIC INCENTIVES?

We address the role of youths' own choice-conditioned expectations in understanding their schooling choices by constructing a choice (or "switching") model. We emphasize the effect of individual student perceptions regarding the returns associated with graduating from high school versus dropping out, while controlling for an extensive set of family and community factors. We find that youths' expected income returns to graduating from high school are influential in their schooling choices, even when an extensive set of background, economic, family, and neighborhood variables, designed to capture the effects of parental and governmental decisions, is introduced into the analysis. (JEL I20 , J24 )     

HOW THE SCOPE AND METHOD OF PUBLIC FUNDING AFFECT WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR PUBLIC GOODS

This article examines the sensitivity of survey measures ofwillingness to pay for public goods. Visitors to a science museumin San Francisco were asked to provide estimates of their willingnessto pay for saving seabirds from oil spills and for teachingEnglish to immigrants under various experimental conditions.Willingness to pay was substantially reduced by a seeminglyinnocuous reminder about how many individuals would be affectedby a tax or would be asked to contribute to a given cause. Thisfinding, which cannot be explained by standard economic interpretationsof willingness to pay, is consistent with previous studies showingthat subtle changes in question order and wording can affectthe nature of the responses.     

ASSESSING ENVIRONMENTAL INEQUALITY: HOW THE CONCLUSIONS WE DRAW VARY ACCORDING TO THE DEFINITIONS WE EMPLOY

ABSTRACT

This article demonstrates that the conclusions environmental inequality researchers draw vary according to the definitions of environmental inequality they employ and that researchers can use a single set of results to test for the existence of multiple forms of environmental inequality. In order to illustrate these points, I set forth five definitions of environmental inequality, list the kinds of evidence we must obtain in order to determine whether each form of environmental inequality exists, and show how conclusions drawn from several recent environmental inequality studies vary depending on the definition of environmental inequality we employ. My goal is not to show that any one definition is superior to the others; nor am I trying to generalize from the studies reported here to a broader set of research findings. Instead, my goal is to a) show that we can use a single set of results to address a variety of environmental justice concerns and b) demonstrate that our interpretations of environmental inequality research have been too narrowly focused on one set of environmental inequality outcomes.