A Class of Non-parametric Tests in the Competing Risks Model for Comparing Two Samples

We consider a model when a process involving the production of elements is under inspection. The elements have possible failures due to competing risks. We assume the availability of a data set of failure times, D₁, obtained when the process is under control. Our main goal is to test if the failure rates in D₁ are equal to or less than the failure rates in another data set D₂, against "undesirable" neighbouring alternatives. A class of tests based on a two-dimensional vector statistic is obtained. Linear test statistics with weight functions giving optimal local asymptotic power are derived. Martingale techniques are used. An example illustrates the derivation of reasonable tests     

Linear signed rank tests for hultivariate location

Previously proposed linear signed rank tests for multivariate location are not invariant under linear transformations of the observations, The asymptotic relative efficiencies of the tests 2 with respect to Hotelling's T²test depend on the direction of shift and the covariance matrix of the alternative distributions. For distributions with highly correlated components, the efficiencies of some of these tests can be arbitrarily low; they approach zero for certain multivariate normal alternatives, This article proposes a transformation of the data to be performed prior to standard linear signed rank tests, The resulting procedures have attractive power and efficiency properties compared to the original tests, In particular, for elliptically symmetric contiguous alternafives, the efficiencies of the new tests equal those of corresponding univariate linear signed rank tests with respect to the t test.     

Power transformations to induce normality and their applications

Summary.  Random variables which are positive linear combinations of positive independent random variables can have heavily right-skewed finite sample distributions even though they might be asymptotically normally distributed. We provide a simple method of determining an appropriate power transformation to improve the normal approximation in small samples. Our method contains the Wilson–Hilferty cube root transformation for χ ² random variables as a special case. We also provide some important examples, including test statistics of goodness-of-fit and tail index estimators, where such power transformations can be applied. In particular, we study the small sample behaviour of two goodness-of-fit tests for time series models which have been proposed recently in the literature. Both tests are generalizations of the popular Box–Ljung–Pierce portmanteau test, one in the time domain and the other in the frequency domain. A power transformation with a finite sample mean and variance correction is proposed, which ameliorates the small sample effect. It is found that the corrected versions of the tests have markedly better size properties. The correction is also found to result in an overall increase in power which can be significant under certain alternatives. Furthermore, the corrected tests also have better power than the Box–Ljung–Pierce portmanteau test, unlike the uncorrected versions.     

Estimating the proportion of true null hypotheses, with application to DNA microarray data

Summary.  We consider the problem of estimating the proportion of true null hypotheses, π ₀, in a multiple-hypothesis set-up. The tests are based on observed p -values. We first review published estimators based on the estimator that was suggested by Schweder and Spjøtvoll. Then we derive new estimators based on nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation of the p -value density, restricting to decreasing and convex decreasing densities. The estimators of π ₀ are all derived under the assumption of independent test statistics. Their performance under dependence is investigated in a simulation study. We find that the estimators are relatively robust with respect to the assumption of independence and work well also for test statistics with moderate dependence.     

The Cusum of Squares Test for Scale Changes in Infinite Order Moving Average Processes

In this paper we consider the problem of testing for a scale change in the infinite order moving average process X _j = _{i =0} a _{i j i} , where _j are i.i.d. r.v.s with E ₁ < for some > 0. In performing the test, a cusum of squares test statistic analogous to Inclan & Tiao's (1994) statistic is considered. It is well-known from the literature that outliers affect test procedures leading to false conclusions. In order to remedy this, a cusum of squares test based on trimmed observations is considered. It is demonstrated that this test is robust against outliers, is valid for infinite variance processes as well. Simulation results are given for illustration.     

Estimation and testing stationarity for double-autoregressive models

Summary.  The paper considers the double-autoregressive model y _t  =  φ y _{t −1}+ ɛ _t with ɛ _t  =     . Consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimated parameters are proved under the condition E  ln | φ  +√ α η _t |<0, which includes the cases with | φ |=1 or | φ |>1 as well as     . It is well known that all kinds of estimators of φ in these cases are not normal when ɛ _t are independent and identically distributed. Our result is novel and surprising. Two tests are proposed for testing stationarity of the model and their asymptotic distributions are shown to be a function of bivariate Brownian motions. Critical values of the tests are tabulated and some simulation results are reported. An application to the US 90-day treasury bill rate series is given.     

Detecting changes in the mean of functional observations

Summary.  Principal component analysis has become a fundamental tool of functional data analysis. It represents the functional data as X _i ( t )= μ ( t )+Σ_{1≤ l <∞} η _{i ,  l} +  v _l ( t ), where μ is the common mean, v _l are the eigenfunctions of the covariance operator and the η _{i ,  l} are the scores. Inferential procedures assume that the mean function μ ( t ) is the same for all values of i . If, in fact, the observations do not come from one population, but rather their mean changes at some point(s), the results of principal component analysis are confounded by the change(s). It is therefore important to develop a methodology to test the assumption of a common functional mean. We develop such a test using quantities which can be readily computed in the R package fda. The null distribution of the test statistic is asymptotically pivotal with a well-known asymptotic distribution. The asymptotic test has excellent finite sample performance. Its application is illustrated on temperature data from England.     

Likelihood Ratio Tests for Fixed Model Terms using Residual Maximum Likelihood

Likelihood ratio tests for fixed model terms are proposed for the analysis of linear mixed models when using residual maximum likelihood estimation. Bartlett-type adjustments, using an approximate decomposition of the data, are developed for the test statistics. A simulation study is used to compare properties of the test statistics proposed, with or without adjustment, with a Wald test. A proposed test statistic constructed by dropping fixed terms from the full fixed model is shown to give a better approximation to the asymptotic χ²-distribution than the Wald test for small data sets. Bartlett adjustment is shown to improve the χ²-approximation for the proposed tests substantially.     

Bayesian model selection for join point regression with application to age-adjusted cancer rates

Summary.  The method of Bayesian model selection for join point regression models is developed. Given a set of K +1 join point models M ₀,  M ₁, …,  M _K with 0, 1, …,  K join points respec-tively, the posterior distributions of the parameters and competing models M _k are computed by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The Bayes information criterion BIC is used to select the model M _k with the smallest value of BIC as the best model. Another approach based on the Bayes factor selects the model M _k with the largest posterior probability as the best model when the prior distribution of M _k is discrete uniform. Both methods are applied to analyse the observed US cancer incidence rates for some selected cancer sites. The graphs of the join point models fitted to the data are produced by using the methods proposed and compared with the method of Kim and co-workers that is based on a series of permutation tests. The analyses show that the Bayes factor is sensitive to the prior specification of the variance σ ², and that the model which is selected by BIC fits the data as well as the model that is selected by the permutation test and has the advantage of producing the posterior distribution for the join points. The Bayesian join point model and model selection method that are presented here will be integrated in the National Cancer Institute's join point software ( http://www.srab.cancer.gov/joinpoint/ ) and will be available to the public.     

A Problem of Dimensionality in Normal Mixture Analysis

Suppose the p -variate random vector W , partitioned into q variables W₁ and p - q variables W₂, follows a multivariate normal mixture distribution. If the investigator is mainly interested in estimation of the parameters of the distribution of W₁, there are two possibilities: (1) use only the data on W₁ for estimation, and (2) estimate the parameters of the p -variate mixture distribution, and then extract the estimates of the marginal distribution of W₁. In this article we study the choice between these two possibilities mainly for the case of two mixture components with identical covariance matrices. We find the asymptotic distribution of the linear discriminant function coefficients using the work of Efron (1975 ) and O'Neill (1978 ), and give a Wald–test for redundancy of W₂. A simulation study gives further insights into conditions under which W₂ should be used in the analysis: in summary, the inclusion of W₂ seems justified if Δ 2.1, the Mahalanobis distance between the two component distributions based on the conditional distribution of W₂ given W₁, is at least 2.     

Variance of the number of false discoveries

Summary.  In high throughput genomic work, a very large number d of hypotheses are tested based on n ≪ d data samples. The large number of tests necessitates an adjustment for false discoveries in which a true null hypothesis was rejected. The expected number of false discoveries is easy to obtain. Dependences between the hypothesis tests greatly affect the variance of the number of false discoveries. Assuming that the tests are independent gives an inadequate variance formula. The paper presents a variance formula that takes account of the correlations between test statistics. That formula involves O ( d ²) correlations, and so a naïve implementation has cost O ( nd ²). A method based on sampling pairs of tests allows the variance to be approximated at a cost that is independent of d .     

Non-parametric tests for distributional treatment effect for randomly censored responses

Summary.  For a binary treatment ν =0, 1 and the corresponding 'potential response' Y ⁰ for the control group ( ν =0) and Y ¹ for the treatment group ( ν =1), one definition of no treatment effect is that Y ⁰ and Y ¹ follow the same distribution given a covariate vector X . Koul and Schick have provided a non-parametric test for no distributional effect when the realized response (1− ν ) Y ⁰+ ν Y ¹ is fully observed and the distribution of X is the same across the two groups. This test is thus not applicable to censored responses, nor to non-experimental (i.e. observational) studies that entail different distributions of X across the two groups. We propose ' X -matched' non-parametric tests generalizing the test of Koul and Schick following an idea of Gehan. Our tests are applicable to non-experimental data with randomly censored responses. In addition to these motivations, the tests have several advantages. First, they have the intuitive appeal of comparing all available pairs across the treatment and control groups, instead of selecting a number of matched controls (or treated) in the usual pair or multiple matching. Second, whereas most matching estimators or tests have a non-overlapping support (of X ) problem across the two groups, our tests have a built-in protection against the problem. Third, Gehan's idea allows the tests to make good use of censored observations. A simulation study is conducted, and an empirical illustration for a job training effect on the duration of unemployment is provided.     

Goodness of Fit via Non-parametric Likelihood Ratios

Abstract.  To test if a density f is equal to a specified f ₀, one knows by the Neyman–Pearson lemma the form of the optimal test at a specified alternative f ₁. Any non-parametric density estimation scheme allows an estimate of f . This leads to estimated likelihood ratios. Properties are studied of tests which for the density estimation ingredient use log-linear expansions. Such expansions are either coupled with subset selectors like the Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion regimes, or use order growing with sample size. Our tests are generalized to testing the adequacy of general parametric models, and to work also in higher dimensions. The tests are related to, but are different from, the 'smooth tests' that go back to Neyman [Skandinavisk Aktuarietidsskrift 20(1937) 149] and that have been studied extensively in recent literature. Our tests are large-sample equivalent to such smooth tests under local alternative conditions, but different from the smooth tests and often better under non-local conditions.     

A parametric bootstrap solution to the MANOVA under heteroscedasticity

In this article, we consider the problem of comparing several multivariate normal mean vectors when the covariance matrices are unknown and arbitrary positive definite matrices. We propose a parametric bootstrap (PB) approach and develop an approximation to the distribution of the PB pivotal quantity for comparing two mean vectors. This approximate test is shown to be the same as the invariant test given in [Krishnamoorthy and Yu, Modified Nel and Van der Merwe test for the multivariate Behrens–Fisher problem, Stat. Probab. Lett. 66 (2004), pp. 161–169] for the multivariate Behrens–Fisher problem. Furthermore, we compare the PB test with two existing invariant tests via Monte Carlo simulation. Our simulation studies show that the PB test controls Type I error rates very satisfactorily, whereas other tests are liberal especially when the number of means to be compared is moderate and/or sample sizes are small. The tests are illustrated using an example.     

A Non-parametric Test for Generalized First-order Autoregressive Models

We derive a non-parametric test for testing the presence of V(X_i,ε_i) in the non-parametric first-order autoregressive model X_i+1=T(X_i)+V(X_i,ε_i)+U(X_i)ε_i+1, where the function T(x) is assumed known. The test is constructed as a functional of a basic process for which we establish a weak invariance principle, under the null hypothesis and under stationarity and mixing assumptions. Bounds for the local and non-local powers are provided under a condition which ensures that the power tends to one as the sample size tends to infinity.The testing procedure can be applied, e.g. to bilinear models, ARCH models, EXPAR models and to some other uncommon models. Our results confirm the robustness of the test constructed in Ngatchou Wandji (1995) and in Diebolt & Ngatchou Wandji (1995).     

Semiparametric Likelihood Based Method for Goodness of Fit Tests and Estimation in Upgraded Mixture Models

We use Owen's (1988, 1990) empirical likelihood method in upgraded mixture models. Two groups of independent observations are available. One is z ₁, ..., z _n which is observed directly from a distribution F ( z ). The other one is x ₁, ..., x _m which is observed indirectly from F ( z ), where the x _i s have density ∫ p ( x | z ) dF ( z ) and p ( x | z ) is a conditional density function. We are interested in testing H ₀: p ( x | z ) = p ( x | z ; θ ), for some specified smooth density function. A semiparametric likelihood ratio based statistic is proposed and it is shown that it converges to a chi-squared distribution. This is a simple method for doing goodness of fit tests, especially when x is a discrete variable with finitely many values. In addition, we discuss estimation of θ and F ( z ) when H ₀ is true. The connection between upgraded mixture models and general estimating equations is pointed out.     

Exact Slopes of Test Statistics for the Multivariate Exponential Family

The objective of this paper is to investigate exact slopes of test statistics { T_n } when the random vectors X ₁, ..., X_n are distributed according to an unknown member of an exponential family { P _θ; θ∈Ω. Here Ω is a parameter set. We will be concerned with the hypothesis testing problem of H ₀θ∈Ω₀ vs H ₁: θ∉Ω₀ where Ω₀ is a subset of Ω. It will be shown that for an important class of problems and test statistics the exact slope of { T_n } at η in Ω−Ω₀ is determined by the shortest Kullback–Leibler distance from {θ: T_n (λ(θ)) = T_n (λ(π))} to Ω₀, λ_θ = E _θ)( X ).     

Empirical Likelihood for Non-Smooth Criterion Functions

Abstract.  Suppose that X ₁ ,…,  X _n is a sequence of independent random vectors, identically distributed as a d -dimensional random vector X . Let     be a parameter of interest and     be some nuisance parameter. The unknown, true parameters ( μ ₀ , ν ₀ ) are uniquely determined by the system of equations E { g ( X , μ ₀ , ν ₀ )} =   0 , where g  =  ( g ₁ ,…, g _{p + q} ) is a vector of p + q functions. In this paper we develop an empirical likelihood (EL) method to do inference for the parameter μ ₀ . The results in this paper are valid under very mild conditions on the vector of criterion functions g . In particular, we do not require that g ₁ ,…, g _{p + q} are smooth in μ or ν . This offers the advantage that the criterion function may involve indicators, which are encountered when considering, e.g. differences of quantiles, copulas, ROC curves, to mention just a few examples. We prove the asymptotic limit of the empirical log-likelihood ratio, and carry out a small simulation study to test the performance of the proposed EL method for small samples.     

IMPROVING UPON THE BEST INVARIANT ESTIMATOR IN MULTIVARIATE LOCATION PROBLEMS

We are concerned with estimators which improve upon the best invariant estimator, in estimating a location parameter θ. If the loss function is L(θ - a) with L convex, we give sufficient conditions for the inadmissibility of δ₀(X) = X. If the loss is a weighted sum of squared errors, we find various classes of estimators δ which are better than δ₀. In general, δ is the convolution of δ₁ (an estimator which improves upon δ₀ outside of a compact set) with a suitable probability density in R^p. The critical dimension of inadmissibility depends on the estimator δ₁ We also give several examples of estimators δ obtained in this way and state some open problems.     

An application of multinomial logistic regression to estimating performance of a multiple-screening test with incomplete verification

Summary.  The paper describes a method of estimating the performance of a multiple-screening test where those who test negatively do not have their true disease status determined. The methodology is motivated by a data set on 49927 subjects who were given K =6 binary tests for bowel cancer. A complicating factor is that individuals may have polyps in the bowel, a condition that the screening test is not designed to detect but which may be worth diagnosing. The methodology is based on a multinomial logit model for Pr( S | R ₆), the probability distribution of patient status S (healthy, polyps or diseased) conditional on the results R ₆ from six binary tests. An advantage of the methodology described is that the modelling is data driven. In particular, we require no assumptions about correlation within subjects, the relative sensitivity of the K tests or the conditional independence of the tests. The model leads to simple estimates of the trade-off between different errors as the number of tests is varied, presented graphically by using receiver operating characteristic curves. Finally, the model allows us to estimate better protocols for assigning subjects to the disease group, as well as the gains in accuracy from these protocols.