COHORT CHANGES IN POLITICAL ATTITUDES: TOLERANCE OF IDEOLOGICAL NON CONFORMITY

This analysis of cohort changes in political attitudes revealsthat tolerance of ideological nonconformity has been increasingamong all cohorts. Aging is not invariably accompanied by greaterconservatism, as earlier studies have suggested. Rather, oldercohorts are more likely than younger ones to adhere to theirearlier, more conservative, attitudes. It is this differentialpropensity for change that leads to a widening gap between cohortattitudes.     

COHORT AND PREJUDICE: WHITES' ATTITUDES TOWARD BLACKS, HISPANICS, JEWS, AND ASIANS

Recent cohorts have been shown to be less prejudiced than theirelders, at least toward blacks. This study addresses two questions:Has this tendency continued among most-recent cohorts of adults?and Does it extend to prejudice toward other ethnic minorities?Using data from a national sample, I focus on stereotype andsocial distance attitudes pertaining to blacks, Hispanics, Asians,and Jews. In general, results indicate that cohorts born alterWorld War II tend to be less prejudiced than prewar cohortstoward each of the four minorities. But most-recent cohortsof Americans show no tendency to be less prejudiced than theirimmediate predecessors born since World War II, and most-recentcohorts residing outside of the South actually tend to be moreprejudiced than their elders.     

UNDERREPORTING OF SUBSTANCE USE IN A NATIONAL LONGITUDINAL YOUTH COHORT: INDIVIDUAL AND INTERVIEWER EFFECTS

The quality of drug data in the 1984 wave of the National LongitudinalSurvey of Youth is explored. Comparisons with other nationalsurveys indicate that underreporting of use of illicit drugsother than marijuana appears to have taken place, and that lightusers of these drugs are underrepresented among the self-acknowledgedusers. Comparison with marijuana use reported four years earlierindicates that experimental marijuana users are much less likelythan extensive users to acknowledge involvement. Even aftercontrolling for frequency of use, underreporting is more commonamong terminal high school dropouts and minorities. Not onlyindividual characteristics but field conditions also contributeto underreporting. Familiarity with the interviewer, as measuredby number of prior interviewing contacts, depresses drug usereporting. We speculate that interviewer familiarity increasessalience of normative standards and that participants respondnot only in terms of their past familiarity but also in termsof their subjective expectations regarding the probability ofa future encounter with the interviewer.     

COHORT TRENDS IN ATTITUDES ABOUT LAW AND ORDER: WHO'S LEADING THE CONSERVATIVE WAVE?

Aging is commonly assumed to be associated with the adoptionof increasingly conservative social and political attitudes.Empirical tests of this assumption have provided little support,but most analyses have focused on attitude domains where publicopinion was shifting in a liberal direction. Using three itemsabout law and order, a domain marked by conservative trends,this paper evaluates the aging-conservatism hypothesis withdata drawn from 18 national surveys covering the period 1959–85.Attitude changes in four cohorts are analyzed with Tay lor'shierarchical goodness-of-fit procedures for evaluating trendsin public opinion. The findings show that each of the cohortshas participated in the shift toward more conservative opinionson law and order issues, and that either constant or zero differencescharacterize the trends in percentage differences between theoldest and the other cohorts. In the absence of differentialrates of change, we conclude that older cohorts are no morelikely than younger cohorts to adopt conservative law and orderattitudes and that period effects are influencing each of thecohorts equally.     

MIGRATION TRENDS AND EARNINGS OF FREE AGENTS IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL, 1976–1979

This paper is an empirical investigation of the effect of team characteristics on the migration pattern of free agents in Major League Baseball during the period 1976–1979. The results indicate that high-quality free agents tend to leave winning teams and move to teams in cities with large or rapidly growing populations. The compensation paid to free agents is shown to depend on these team characteristics as well as the players' personal characteristics and market conditions.     

SEX-ROLE ATTITUDE CHANGE AND REPORTING OF RAPE VICTIMIZATION, 1973–1985

This article examines the relationship between sex-role attitude change and female victims' reports of rape incidents to police in an analysis of time-series data from national attitude surveys of college freshmen and adults, and from annual victimization surveys. Declining support for traditional sex-role attitudes among both college women and men is strongly related to an increase in the proportion of rapes by nonstranger assailants that were reported to police from 1973 to 1985. However, victims' reports of rapes by strangers are more closely related to offenders' use of weapons during sexual assaults. These findings and other evidence against alternative explanations suggest that the cultural bases for "rape myths" have eroded during the 1970s and 1980s, and that broader definitions of rape have contributed to increased reporting of certain forms of sexual assault to police.     

EDUCATION AND POLITICAL TOLERANCE: TESTING THE EFFECTS OF COGNITIVE SOPHISTICATION AND TARGET GROUP AFFECT

This paper examines the effects of education and cognitive sophisticationon willingness to extend civil liberties to nonconformist groups.We conducted secondary analysis of the 1984 General SocietySurvey data. The results show that there is a strong tolerancedimension that cuts across groups and types of actions. We foundstrong positive effects of education on a multiple target grouptolerance scale that included both left-wing and right-winggroups. A substantial fraction of the education effect on toleranceis mediated by cognitive sophistication. The effects of educationon tolerance are strong even when a person has negative feelingstoward the target group. This paper helps identify why and when(e.g., cognitive sophistication and dislike of a target group)education enhances political tolerance. We discuss the implicationsof the research for debates on the education-tolerance relationship.     

IMMIGRATION AND ASIAN AND HISPANIC MINORITIES IN THE NEW SOUTH: AN EXPLORATION OF HISTORY,ATTITUDES, AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

Recent analyses of the cultural dimension of protest have started to move away from the structuralist and instrumentalist biases of early resource mobilization and political process models. However, these analyses are limited by a static conception of culture that inhibits their ability to explore how cultural content (i.e., meanings, beliefs, values, symbols, norms) and interpretive processes within organizations influence movement mobilization. Drawing on ethnographic, archival, and secondary historical data, this study establishes how African-American women through their interactions with others in institutions construct identities and meanings about their social situation that incline them to identify with and/or be willing to participate in sociopolitical action.     

SOURCES OF INFLUENCE AND TOPIC AREAS IN FAMILY THERAPY: TRENDS IN THREE MAJOR JOURNALS

Following Gurman (1981), this study reports on authors and topics of interest in prominent marriage and family therapy journals from 1980 through 1995. Fifteen of the 25 institutions that produced the greatest number of authors prior to 1978 continued to be among the top 25 between 1980 and 1995, and the 25 leading institutions produced 29.5% of articles from 1980 to 1995. Most authors held positions in university settings and taught in programs with a marriage and family therapy focus. Clinical issues were the most common focus of articles (61%), and one-third of all articles were research reports.     

COHORT AND GENDER DIFFERENCES IN EXTRACURRICULAR PARTICIPATION: THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ACTIVITIES,MATH ACHIEVEMENT,AND COLLEGE EXPECTATIONS

Using data from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 and the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002, I analyze the association that students' extracurricular activities have with two academic outcomes: mathematics achievement test scores and college expectations. I consider changes between cohorts and gender differences within each cohort. While prior achievement and expectations have the strongest associations with the dependent variables, relationships do appear between extracurricular participation and the dependent variables. There is only one cohort difference in the association between activities and math achievement test scores; computer use was positively associated with students' scores in the 1990s, but had no association with students' scores in the 2000s. School-sponsored activities were associated with higher scores for all students, while television-watching and hanging out with friends were negatively associated with them. School activities were positively associated with the college expectations of students in both cohorts, while spending time hanging out with friends was negatively associated with expectations, especially for students in the later cohort. There were a few gender differences in the association between activities and math scores, but no gender differences in the association between activities and college expectations. The findings indicate that many of the same activities are relevant for math achievement and college expectations in the two time periods.     

STATUS CHANGE AND PERSISTENCE IN CHICAGO SUBURBS: MULTIPLE PATTERNS OF CAUSATION*

An examination of 1970–1980 census data for suburban Chicago indicates that, within the context of persisting inequities, causal links between community characteristics and status change vary by initial status. Individual change in the relative rankings of initially affluent communities is a direct function of housing age and location; residential development and changes in population size have little or no effect on this process. In contrast, cyclical growth is the primary determinant of status change among places of lesser initial affluence. Within the larger context of centrifugal drift and age-related growth cycles, stronger growth and resulting status improvements occur in accessible, underdeveloped newer places that, due to recent suburbanization, have already attained somewhat higher rankings.     

THE ERA OF INCREASED VIOLENCE IN THE UNITED STATES: AGE,PERIOD, OR COHORT EFFECT?*

An age/period/cohort analysis is conducted for homicide rates during the years 1952–1976, a period during which rates of violent crimes escalated substantially in U. S. society. This increase is shown to be most effectively conceptualized as a cohort phenomenon, although the effects of age are also evident. Youth cohorts of the early 1960s display substantially higher rates of homicide than previous youth cohorts, and tend to maintain these relatively higher rates through their life cycle. Explanations for this finding are explored via economic factors, for which some empirical substantiation is provided.     

EFFECTS OF EXPOSURE ON PREVALENCE AND CUMULATIVE RELATIVE RISK: DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS IN A RECURSIVE HAZARD MODEL

This paper outlines decomposition methods for assessing how exposure affects prevalence and cumulative relative risk. Let     x     denote a vector of exogenous covariates and suppose that a single dimension of time   t   governs two event processes     T ₁  and   T ₂.    If the occurrence of the event     T ₁    determines entry into the risk of the event     T ₂,    then subgroup variation in     T ₁    will affect the prevalence     T ₂,    even if subgroups in the population are otherwise identical. Although researchers often acknowledge this phenomenon, the literature has not provided procedures to assess the magnitude of an exposure effect of     T ₁    on the prevalence of     T ₂.    We derive decompositions that assess how variation in exposure generated by direct and indirect effects of the covariates     x     affect measures of absolute and relative prevalence of     T ₂.    We employ a parametric but highly flexible specification for baseline hazard for the     T ₁  and   T ₂    processes and use the resulting parametric proportional hazard model to illustrate the direct and indirect effects of family structure when     T ₁    is age at first sexual intercourse and     T ₂    is age at a premarital first birth for data on a cohort of non-hispanic white U.S. women.     

ASYMMETRY IN THE EFFECTS OF MONETARY AND GOVERNMENT SPENDING SHOCKS: CONTRASTING EVIDENCE AND IMPLICATIONS

Using quarterly data for the United States, demand contraction exceeds expansion in the face of monetary and government spending shocks. Demand contraction in the face of government spending shocks, is absorbed in nominal wage and price deflation. The variability of government spending shocks decreases average wage and price inflation. In contrast, the upward flexibility of price appears in sharp contrast to its downward rigidity in the face of monetary shocks. Furthermore, output contraction is notably larger relative to expansion in the face of monetary shocks. Monetary variability accelerates average price inflation and decreases average output and real wage growth.     

CONSTRUCTING RAPE: FEMINISM,CHANGE, AND WOMEN'S EVERYDAY UNDERSTANDINGS OF SEXUAL ASSAULT

The cultural and legal meaning of rape has changed dramatically over the past 30 years as the feminist movement has challenged traditional constructions of sexual violence and offered an alternative construction of the meaning of rape. The transformation of rape into a social problem has brought increased attention to the subject in both popular and academic realms. Despite the growing body of research and theory on sexual violence, little inquiry exists into women s everyday constructions of rape and the degree to which such constructions have been influenced by the feminist movement. This article uses a constructionist framework to examine the everyday understandings of rape held by a diverse sample of women. Data gathered through an open-ended survey instrument were analyzed to reveal both interesting similarities and significant differences in the ways women of different ages, races, and personal histories define and interpret the phenomenon of rape. By examining these data, the extent to which the feminist reconstruction of rape has influenced women s everyday assumptions is examined, and the role of differences among women in perceptions of rape is explored. The findings presented in this article have implications for theories of social problems, for feminist discourse, and for the application of research on rape in applied settings.     

CAPACITY, DIVERSITY, AND VOLATILITY OF THE PUBLIC AGENDA: TRENDS FROM 1954 TO 1994

This study examined three intertwined hypotheses about long-termtrends in the American public's issue agenda: increases in (1)agenda capacity, (2) agenda diversity, and (3) issue volatility.These hypotheses were tested with aggregate time series datacovering 40 years of Gallup Poll Most Important Problem questions.The first two hypotheses also were replicated with cross-sectionaldata at the individual level consisting of 15,000 cases fromthree different years stretching across 4 decades. While nosignificant linear increase in the carrying capacity is found,our results provide unambiguously strong evidence for an increasein both agenda diversity and issue volatility. These findingsabout the public agenda are consistent with the proffered explanationthat the volatility of contemporary public opinion is the resultof a collision between two opposing forces, the expansive influenceof education on awareness of public issues and the constraintimposed by the public agenda's limited capacity.     

SPIRITUALITY AND RELIGION,EMOTIONAL COPING,AND CRIMINAL DESISTANCE: A QUALITATIVE STUDY OF MEN UNDERGOING CHANGE

Retrospective narratives of change consistently emphasize the importance of religious devotion and spirituality in initiating sustained behavioral change, but little is known about the process by which religion and spirituality promote desistance from crime. The current project is designed to add to the knowledge of the relationship between religion/spirituality and behavioral change by systematically investigating the ways that men residing in a halfway house define the role of religion/spirituality as an emotion-coping mechanism in their desistance efforts. The qualitative data reveal that religion/spirituality is primarily used by these men currently undergoing behavioral change as a form of emotional comfort, a distraction from current stressors, and as factor demarcating the transition from deviance to a more conventional life. Suggestions for religious programming designed to stimulate behavioral changes are discussed.     

INTERVIEW MODE EFFECTS IN SURVEYS OF DRUG AND ALCOHOL USE: A FIELD EXPERIMENT

This research explores the impact of interview mode on respondents'willingness to reveal illicit or undesirable behavior and mechanismsby which interview mode influences response tendencies. A fieldexperiment was designed to control mode effects due to samplingand screening so that the impact of response anonymity (throughuse of self-administered questionnaires ([SAQs]) and socialdistance in the interviewer-respondent relationship (telephonevs. personal communication) could be tested. Respondents aged18–45 were randomly as-signed to interview mode: telephone,face-to-face, or self-administered. Admission of illicit druguse and alcohol use was most likely in the personal mode withSAQs, slightly less likely in personal mode without SAQs, andleast likely in the telephone mode. The magnitude of the modedifferentials was larger for blacks than for whites, and largeramong respondents who are more mistrustful of others. Resultssupport the notion that response effects due to mode of interviewderive, at least in part, from interview mode differences inability to assuage respondents' confidentiality concerns. Greatersocial distance between interviewer and respondent in the telephoneinterview, compared with face-to-face communication, makes itmore difficult for the researcher to make convincing confidentialityguarantees. The response anonymity provided by SAQs also appearsto increase respondents' willingness to reveal sensitive behavior,especially among racial/ethnic minorities.     

THE WELFARE EFFECTS OF TEMPORARY TAX CUTS AND SUBSIDIES: THEORY,ESTIMATION, AND APPLICATIONS

This article presents a tractable and intuitive theory on the welfare effects of temporary tax cuts and subsidies, fiscal policies that I generically term “holidays.” The Kaldor–Hicks efficiency effects are theoretically ambiguous, with competing pro‐ and anti‐efficiency effects on newly incentivized versus time‐shifted purchases. To rectify this ambiguity I derive expressions for the welfare effects that are consistent with constant elasticity assumptions and depend only upon readily and reliably observed information. To demonstrate the framework's broad applicability, I analyze two different policies: the 2009 Cash for Clunkers program and states' sales tax holidays. I estimate that both policies generated substantial deadweight loss. (JEL H21, H30, D91)