The relationship between youth employment and older persons' employment in 20 OECD countries

Inspired by the “lump of labour” theory, a large number of OECD countries have encouraged the expansion of early retirement policies in response to rising unemployment since the 1970s. In reality, however, youth employment is found to be positively correlated with older persons' employment, although this is simply the overall finding for all OECD countries because most studies estimate average effects. Less is known about diversity in the relationship between youth employment and the employment of older workers. In order to help fill the research gap in this area, this study explores the heterogeneity of that relationship across 20 OECD countries.     

Emigration dynamics in developing countries

This paper describes the research objectives and summarizes first-stage findings of a joint project of the International Organization for Migration and the UN Population Fund on emigration dynamics in developing countries. The paper was prepared for a conference in Bellagio organized to allow academics, policy-makers, and officials to evaluate the first-stage findings and to appraise the stage-two research proposals. The research methodology developed at a 1993 project launching meeting held in Geneva drew on demographic transition theory and involves inclusion in the research framework of economic; demographic; community, family, and individual; and sociopolitical variables which would provide a dynamic understanding of why different migration flows were occurring and allow projections of various types of future migration. In addition, the research was to explain all types of migration, with disaggregation by type provided. The first stage of research (reported at this conference) was devoted to obtaining and assembling data on the factors known to influence emigration dynamics. The second stage will be devoted to attempts to measure the interaction among variables in a specific region. The first-stage findings are summarized in this paper for sub-Saharan Africa, southern Asia, and Central America and the Caribbean. This paper ends by noting that this research takes the same direction as objectives cited in the 1994 UN Conference on Population and Development's (ICPD) Programme for Action. The evaluation of the proposal of second-stage research will include ways to maximize the concordance of that research with the goals of the ICPD.     

Population aging in developing countries

Reproduced with permission from Health Affairs, © 2000     

Inequality and education decisions in developing countries

In this paper we analyze the effect of inequality on school enrollment, preferred tax rate and expenditure per student in developing countries; when parents can choose between child labor, public schooling or private schooling. We present a model in which parents make schooling decisions for their children, weighing the utility benefit of having a child with formal public or private education versus the forgone income from child labor or household work. Parents vote over the preferred tax rate to finance freely provided public education. The utility benefit of an educated child is proportional to expenditure per student, so that there is congestion in public school. We find that when parents can send their children to work or to private school, high inequality leads to exit from public education at both ends of the income distribution. Thus high inequality reduces the support for public education, leading to a low tax rate and expenditure per student. Exit from public education results in both high child labor and a large fraction of students attending private school. In fact there is a threshold level of inequality above which there is no longer support for public education. In addition we explore the implications for the design of foreign aid. The results suggest that foreign aid policies should focus on promoting school attendance rather than increasing school resources, as the later policy might be offset by a reduction in the recipient country’s fiscal effort, with little impact on outcomes.      

Managing international migration in developing countries

IOM's research project on emigration dynamics in developing countries, launched in 1993, brought together teams of researchers in four regions of the developing world: Sub-Saharan Africa; South Asia; the Arab region; and Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. The article reports the findings of team members as reported to, and discussed by, 180 participants, including those from 57 governments, at IOM's twelfth Migration Seminar held in Geneva during April 1997.
The research had been carried out under a common conceptual framework which addressed emigration dynamics through changing economic, demographic, political and ecological circumstances in each country or subregion; the role of networks already established between persons in sending and receiving countries; and the nature of entry restrictions imposed by receiving countries.
A central objective of the research was to try and measure interaction between the variables in specific country and subregional situations and, as far as possible, provide results that could assist policy makers in both developing and developed countries. This objective had been facilitated by workshops held in each region during 1995–96 comprising researchers, officials and policy makers.
Although economic, demographic, political and ecological circumstances varied considerably between countries in the four regions, conference delegates agreed that the approach adopted by the researchers, including contact with officials and policy makers, had provided new insights into the emigration dynamics process.
Recommendations made during conference discussions included the need to establish an effective system of migration information exchange between and across regions; that on the basis of results achieved so far research on emigration dynamics should be continued and broadened; and that there should be sustained dialogue between policy makers, officials, researchers and NGOs.     

Labour market regulations and high quality employment in EU-15 countries

The elements that we usually include under the concept of “labour market institutions” exert a clear influence on the workings of the labour market. However, the assessment of labour market policies and institutions remains mostly focused on their impact on the quantity of jobs, while people’s well-being depends crucially on how good their jobs are. This paper is a modest attempt to contribute some evidence and insight to the debate on the effects that particular institutional configurations have on the generation of high-quality employment.     

Service employment and population growth in Japan

The relationship between activities in the service sector of the economy and urban growth is examined, with emphasis on how service activities are related to the pattern and speed of urban growth. The study is based on an analysis of 1970 Japanese census data for cities in the Chubu region that have more than 50,000 inhabitants.     

发展中国家城市化的新进展

尽管城镇已经存在了几千年,但到1800年,居住在城市地区的人口仍不足世界人口的3%;到1950年该比例在27%左右,目前所谓的大多数发达国家当时已为城市所主导.可以粗略地认为,1950年以前,城市化发展局限在发达国家.1950年以来,由于发展中国家城市化的发展,城市化成为一种世界性的现象,城市即将成为世界聚落的主导.发展中国家的城市化问题是目前国际城市化研究的重点所在.     

Comments on demography and population policy in the developing countries

Commenting on an article by A. Ia. Kvasha, the author wonders whethe r the Soviet state, as a matter of policy, encourages measures to limit the growth of population. He further regards the Soviet attitude, as he understands it, of making light of the expanding population in developing countries as dangerous and suggests that in the developing world some measures of population control would be necessary in making the transition from a traditional agricultural society into a modern ind ustrial one. In a reply, Kvasha admits that social and economic development can only be obtained by radical changes in the economic structure and the creation of an independent economic base and a relatively well-developed home-owned industry. But he feels that demographic problems, no matter how acute, are always resolved in intimate association with the entire course of social progress. Each socialist country may take a unique approach to population problems as socialist governments do have the opportunity to regulate many processes of life. Thus, the current population policy in the Soviet Union consists of measures to stimulate the birthrate while preserving the right for individuals to plan their own families. Poland is taking measure to limit births while Czechoslovakia and Hungary are trying to increase them.     

Irregular migration: a rising issue in developing countries

The growing concern with illegal, or undocumented, migration in developing countries is described. The author notes that although such migration occurred in the past without causing concern, changing economic, political, and social factors since the 1970s have caused governments to attempt to control such flows. A review of regional trends is included, and the consequences of illegal migration for both countries of origin and destination are examined. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

The evaluation of healthy city projects in developing countries

In international public health and other disciplines there is a debate about the use of process versus impact (sometimes referred to as outcome) indicators in project evaluations. With growing international and national support for Healthy City Projects in developing countries it is timely to address the issue of how to evaluate such projects. This paper briefly describes process and impact indicators, considers the importance of process indicators given the role of institutional strengthening and capacity building in Healthy City Projects and discusses the balance between locally and internationally generated indicators. A case study of the first Healthy City Project in a developing country in Asia (Chittagong, Bangladesh) illustrates how the project is linked with urban management and can enhance co-operation, co-ordination, motivation, internal organisation, decentralisation and community participation. Finally, some institutional indicators for evaluation are suggested.