Price vs. revenue stabilization through a buffer stock: Which is more financially feasible for LDCs?

Optimal control theory is used to analyze the implications of the adoption of price and LDC export revenue stabilization objectives by an international buffer stock for cocoa. The results obtained for the period 1956–76 suggest that the stabilization of either price or revenue at systematic trend would reduce the instability of both variables from that during the sample period. Although the stabilization of revenues at systematic trend decreases their average level, the stabilization of price has the opposite effect. Because of this, it may be financially feasible for the LDCs to provide the necessary resources for a price-stabilizing buffer stock.     

The Micro and Macro Dimensions of Gambling in the United States

A national probability sample of 1736 respondents and a Nevada State probability sample of 296 respondents were surveyed during the summer of 1975 to determine the extent of gambling activity in the United States, to estimate the amount of government revenue that could result from various changes in the gambling laws, and to predict the social consequences of these changes. While there were large variations among regions and demographic groups, a majority of all adult Americans gamble. Wagers on commercial games amounted to $22.4 billion in 1974 of which $17 billion was wagered legally and approximately $5 billion illegally.     

Commodity buffer stock redux: The role of International Cocoa Organization in prices and incomes

This paper utilizes linear demand and supply models, with additive independent shocks, to derive producer price and income variances of a typical commodity during and after a buffer stock control. It proceeds to use the models to evaluate International Cocoa Organization's (ICCO) Buffer Stock's decision to purchase excess stock from the market a floor price and re-sell it, in periods of low supply, at the ceiling price. The results show that cocoa producer prices and incomes were more stable during periods of ICCO buffer stock intervention than after the demise of the buffer stock. The results further indicate that stock-buying operations induced greater stability in producer incomes than buying stock-selling operations.     

The Simplest Dynamic General-Equilibrium Model of an Open Economy

This paper presents the simplest possible general-equilibrium model of an open economy in which producer and consumer decisions are both intra- and intertemporally consistent. Consumers maximize the present value of the utility of consumption; producers maximize the present value of profits. The model solves for the set of intertemporally consistent prices. The parsimonious structure of the model is achieved by dividing the economy into two producing sectors—exports and domestic goods—and two consumed goods—imports and domestic goods. As a result, there is only one endogenous price per period to be solved for (the price of the domestic good), although “structural” questions, such as the evolution of the real exchange rate, can be posed with the model. Furthermore, with this structural breakdown, the model can be calibrated with national accounts data only. In the paper, we show how to calibrate such a model (including specification of an adjustment-cost function, to avoid “bang-bang” behavior) and use the model to examine various questions where intertemporal issues are important, including terms-of-trade shocks and tariff reform.     

Money, real output, and deficit effects of coffee booms in Colombia

This paper develops a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model and uses the recently developed technique of ‘generalized’ impulse response analysis to test the empirical relationships in the Colombian economy between coffee revenues and a set of macro variables. We find that coffee price (revenue) shocks have exerted an important influence on money growth, inflation, and real exchange rates, and the direction of these effects are in line with some of the predictions of traditional Dutch Disease type models. The major difference between our results and the results of Dutch Disease type models arise in the effects of coffee booms on real output. We find that in the time horizon of 5 years after the boom, real output has increased in response to the effects of the coffee boom. The finding that coffee booms can result in positive long-run output effects is an important finding since it contradicts the traditional conclusion of Dutch Disease type models which envision an adverse long-run effect on output. We also find that the long-run effect of coffee booms is to reduce both current account and government deficits. These results illustrate strikingly that the term “Dutch Disease” is an unfortunately pejorative term that obscures the fact that coffee booms need not be viewed as a “disease” but as an extraordinary opportunity to strengthen internal and external balances.     

Welfare effects of demand management policies: Impact multipliers under alternative model structures

This paper explores the sensitivity of multiplier estimates under three alternative assumptions about factor supply. For this purpose, we have used a general equilibrium model of Malaysia which allows endogenous determination of factor and output prices and which permits substitution in both production and demand in response to price. The structure of the model and three alternative factor supply assumptions under which the model can be solved are described. These alternative assumptions amount to alternative “closure rules.” The results of a general increase in demand as estimated under each of the alternative closures are then presented. Finally, we examine the results of two specific types of demand increase under each of the closure rules, focusing especially upon welfare related variables such as real household consumption levels.     

A model of price and quantity adjustments in primary commodity markets

This paper presents a dynamic, simultaneous model of price and quantity adjustments in world primary commodity markets. The model is formulated in a disequilibrium framework, emphasizing particularly the role of price adjustment. In addition to the price equation, commodity consumption and production equations are also specified. The empirical analysis of the model is carried out with the annual data of six primary commodities: coffee, cocoa, rubber, copper, tin, and sugar. This includes the estimation of price, consumption, production equations, the simulation tests of complete structural models for these six commodities, and the derivation of dynamic responses (measured by elasticities) of commodity prices to changes in world income, world inflation, and commodity outputs. Dynamic simulations strongly confirm the commonly observed self-generating and recurring boom-and-bust cycles of primary commodity prices. This finding lends credibility to the models constructed.     

Do Life-Saving Regulations Save Lives?

Life-saving regulations may be counter-productive since they have an indirect mortality effect through the reduction in disposable income. This paper estimates the effect of income on mortality, controlling for the initial health status and a host of personal characteristics. The analysis is based on a random sample of the adult Swedish population of over 40,000 individuals followed up for 10–17 years. The income loss that will induce an expected fatality is estimated to be $6.8 million when the costs are borne equally among all adults, $8.4 million when the costs are borne proportionally to income and $9.8 million when the costs are borne progressively to income.     

Hungary in transition: a computable general equilibrium model comparison with Austria

We approach the problem of Hungary's transformation from a partially centrally planned to a market-oriented economy with a cross-country comparison using two computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of Hungary, 1977 and 1986, and one of Austria, 1976. These three models represent a continuum of small open economies and allow a “quasidynamic” analysis using static CGE models. We examine two types of transformation issues: external (trade liberalization, import price reductions, and redirection of foreign trade; “Dutch Disease reversal”) and internal (decreases in subsidy levels). Overall, it is clear that with Hungary's borrowing constraints, liberalization should not be pursued in isolation; a change in the tax structure is necessary at the same time. The results for Austria indicate that liberalization brings smaller welfare improvements accompanied by smaller increases in the current account and government deficits.     

“十二五”中国经济发展预测研究

根据《中国统计年鉴—2010》的最新统计资料,通过建立对数新发展系数优化灰色模型,对2011年-2015年中国宏观经济发展趋势进行实证分析和预测研究,结果表明：（按2010年现价计,未扣除CPI等影响）2011年我国GDP将突破45万亿元,达到450143亿元,到2015年可达745511亿元,约为2010年的1．9倍;“十二五”期间整个国民经济发展态势良好,经济保持稳定增长,预计GDP年均增长率约为13．4％,“十二五”规划的预期目标可望顺利实现。     

Native American and non-Indian newspaper coverage of land and resource issues in the self-determination era

Media analysis can be used to track trends over time. In this research, 1,969 articles covering Native American land and resource issues were studied for the period 1970–1994. The articles came from three mainstream newspapers and three Native American-controlled newspapers representing three different regions: the Southwest, the Northern Plains, and the Northeast. The analysis indicated that there were important differences between native and nonnative media. It also indicated that the federal policy of “self-determination” for Native Americans has not been implemented in the area of control of land and natural resources.     

PUBLIC WEALTH,PUBLIC HEALTH,AND PRIVATE STEALTH: EXAMINING THE BLACK MARKET IN CIGARETTES IN AUSTRALIA

Taxes on tobacco provide a significant income for the Australian government — $5.1 billion in 2001. At the same time, health officials are making strenuous efforts to reduce smoking, particularly among teenagers. Some economists suggest that raising taxes on tobacco will produce more revenue while at the same time lowering smoking rates, particularly among youths who have less discretionary spending power than adults. But a by‐product of excise tax in Australia has been the emerging market in “chop‐chop,” tobacco diverted from legal channels by growers who receive considerably higher prices for a part of their yield than they can obtain from legal manufacturers. The article details this situation and suggests that only bold solutions may be able to reduce tensions in tax policies, smoking rates and the “chop‐chop” black market.     

Distributional effects of international commodity price stabilization: Do the aggregate gains apply to individual producing countries?

This paper demonstrates the different producer gains and losses that can occur from a price stabilization scheme in a same market. An international buffer stock model integrated in a trade flow model of commodity exports of the Latin American economies is used to simulate two representative products: coffee, where instability in the world market has originated mainly from changes in supply, and copper, where the major source of world market disturbances have been demand shifts. The results show that global generalizations as to the net benefits or costs of price stabilization are erroneous at the producer country level in supply or supply/demand dominated instability, a condition that typifies many primary commodity markets.     

Portfolio stock adjustment and the real exchange rate: The Dollar-Mark (DM) and Mark-Sterling

The advent of “freely floating” exchange rates in the 1970's coincided with the emergence of what is known as “monetary” or “asset” models of exchange rate behavior where exchange ratesmove to equilibrate demand for stocks of monies. The fundamental monetary model assumes purchasing power parity holds in the long-run, and therefore exchange rates are determined by the same factors that determine relative prices, to wit, money stocks, real incomes, and nominal interest rates. Though early proponents of the monetary view clearly emphasized its long-run nature, empirical testing has by and large neglected this caveat. Thus a model developed for long-run equilibrium exchange rates has instead been tested many times over on short-run equilibrium rates. The latter require a distinct model of their own. This paper develops a short-run equilibrium exchange rate model based on deviations of the short-run exchange rate from its long-run equilibrium. The model differs in that all variables are cast in real terms. It also differs in that the monetary and current account exchange rate versions are shown to be subsets of the more general wealth/portfolio framework used here. The present model considers, in addition to stocks of monies, stocks of foreign assets, and stocks of domestic wealth.     

The problems of Indian history

Most historians write Indian history from a Euro-American perspective. Two great historians illustrate the problem. Francis Parkman wrote the story of the Euro-Americans' victory over the Indians. Bernard Bailyn describes the social process of settlement neutrally, but ignores the Indians. So long as scholars define the American past in this way, Indian history has no significance on its own terms. If they focus only on “intersections” of Europeans and native “obstacles,” Indians are merely symbols. The many problems fall into three categories: structural, methodological, and conceptual.     

Japan's Radical Reform of Long-term Care

Japan's mandatory long‐term care social insurance system started in 2000. Many important choices about the basic shape and size of the system, as well as a host of details, were necessary when the program was being planned. It represents a reversal from earlier steps toward a tax‐based direct‐service system, and is based on consumer choice of services and providers. The benefits are in the form of institutional or community‐based services, not cash, and are aimed at covering all caregiving costs (less a 10 percent co‐payment) at six levels of need, as measured by objective test. Revenues are from insurance contributions and taxes. The program costs about $40 billion, and is expected to rise to about $70 billion annually by 2010 as applications for services go up. There are about 2.2 million beneficiaries, about 10 percent of the 65+ population. The program has operated within its budget and without major problems for two years and is broadly accepted as an appropriate and effective social program.     

Explaining third-party success in gubernatorial elections: The cases of Alaska, Connecticut, Maine and Minnesota

In the 1990s alone, four states elected third-party governors. Walter Hickel of Alaska and Lowell Weicker of Connecticut were elected in 1990. Maine elected Angus King in 1994. And Jesse Ventura was elected governor of Minnesota in 1998. In this article, I examine these four cases in an attempt to identify the factors that contribute to third-party electoral success. I apply two models to these cases. The first model, “alternative culture,” holds that certain voters—regardless of specific context—are predisposed to support alternative candidates. The second model, “institutional context,” looks at factors such as name recognition, resources, and access to media as explanations of third-party success. I find that except for the influence of “partisan independence,” there is little evidence to support the persistence of an alternative culture of third-party voting. Rather, these four cases are linked by a context particularly favorable to these alternative candidates.     

CALCULATING THE TRUE COST OF PRIVATE SCHOOL EDUCATION: BASED ON A SURVEY OF SOUTH AUSTRALIAN SCHOOL FEES

The cost of a child's education should not be a mystery to consumers, yet little has been published about the true costs, and it is no simple task for parents to calculate. This paper seeks to fill a gap in the research literature that exists in relation to informing parents and educationalists alike as to the true cost of private school education. The term cost is used in the economic sense as encompassing not only the price paid for the product (school fees) but also the opportunity cost to the family in terms of what they forego in order to finance private schooling. Identifying opportunity cost is a useful means of assessing the impact of factors, other than financial, that are influential in determining whether or not private education is purchased. From a survey of South Australian private schools, we have been able to provide a detailed account of the price variations between the fees charged, as well as identifying a variety of additional ancillary charges. Based on the survey figures, we have projected the amount of money that needs to be taken out of the family budget in order to pay for a child's private schooling. At the time the survey was conducted the cost of private school education across three strata, on average, ranged from $13,400 to $42,246. We calculated that incremental family pretax incomes of between $20,303 and $64,009 would be required to fund this education. The amounts represent an opportunity cost to a family whereby money could be put to alternative uses such as home renovation, an overseas holiday, or a buffer against unexpected life events. We conclude that the outlay is substantial for many families and that greater transparency of all costs is needed for families to make informed financial plans to accommodate the overall cost of education for their children.     

Multicountry dynamic multipliers under fixed and floating exchange rates: An econometric analysis

The present paper attempts to analyze the dynamic multiplier effects of fiscal monetary policies for developed countries in a consistent framework of a global econometric model under both fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. The paper first discusses the estimation of exchange rate functions for eight developed countries with special reference to “fundamentals” in economic performance such as international gaps in inflation, productivity, expected real rate of return, and so on. The results are then incorporated into the global model to derive and compare dynamic multipliers under both fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. “Insulation effects” are observed in most cases in terms of both output and inflation, though this differs according to the country. Policy implications are discussed at the end.     

What Price Nondisclosure? The Effects of Nondisclosure of Real Estate Sales Prices*

Objective. Only a select set of states still do not require mandatory public disclosure of real estate sales prices. In this article we examine the possible public‐sector consequences of failing to make real estate sales prices publicly accessible. Methods. We propose a set of possible public‐sector consequences of sales price nondisclosure (property tax assessment inequities, tax revenue leakages, administrative inefficiencies, and related ancillary effects). We identify examples, provide limited empirical evidence (simple regressions and distributional analyses) on the restricted data available, and discuss the relevant legal considerations at a variety of administrative and geographic scales. Results. The limited statistical results and examples provide evidence of possible inequities in effective tax rates and tax revenue leakages that may be connected to sale price nondisclosure. Conclusions. We argue that there is a strong prima facie case for legitimate public concerns attached to real estate sales price nondisclosure.