COSTLY PORTFOLIO ADJUSTMENT AND THE SHORT RUN DEMAND FOR MONEY

In many empirical studies the short-run demand for money includes a lagged dependent variable; this is usually attributed to some cost of adjusting money balances toward their desired level. This short-run money-demand equation is sometimes used as a structural equation in models in which market clearing is also assumed (in the sense that money supply equals short–run money demand). In this paper, a theoretical counterexample demonstrates that this use of a short-run money demand equation is not generally valid. This finding challenges the usual interpretation of the lagged dependent variable.     

A MARKET-BASED TEST OF THE EFFECT OF MONETARY POLICY

This paper tests the rational expectations-natural rate hypothesis without basing expectations on time series estimates. Instead, market-based data are used. Unexpected money supply changes are determined via the Fisher Effect and the Quantity Equation. This introduces errors of a very different kind than the traditional approach, and yet the results are remarkably similar to those generated using time series estimates. Unanticipated money shocks are shown to exert a significant but only short-run effect on real output, suggesting only a short-run Phillips curve trade-off. Anticipated money growth appears to have no effect on real output.     

UNCERTAIN EFFECTS OF MONEY AND THE LINK BETWEEN THE INFLATION RATE AND INFLATION UNCERTAINTY

In the postwar period high rates of inflation are associated with high levels of inflation uncertainty. In this paper I argue that the inflation rate and inflation uncertainty are linked by forecasters' uncertainty about the impact of money growth on the price level, and I present evidence indicating that this has been the case. As long as the impact of money growth on the price level remains unpredictable, then even predictable money growth will cause inflation uncertainty with its accompanying adverse effects on employment and output.     

ADJUSTMENT TO PRODUCTION UNCERTAINTY AND THE THEORY OF THE FIRM

This paper considers the behavior of the firm which faces uncertainty in its production process but can adjust its output once the uncertainty is resolved. Ex post adjustment, unlike previous treatments, involves a marginal cost penalty if more output is required and a lowering of price if too much is produced. With ex post adjustment allowed in this fashion, it is found that nonlinear risk preferences do not affect the sign of the firm's marginal risk premium at optimum ex ante output. The firm will produce less output than under certainty whether it is risk averse, risk neutral, or prefers risk.     

INFLATION AND REAL STOCK RETURNS REVISITED

The article uses the (unbalanced) panel data to revisit the effects of expected inflation, unexpected inflation, and inflation uncertainty on real stock returns. The empirical results are obtained via the pooled mean group estimator, which can be applied to I (1) and/or I (0) variables, and can distinguish long- and short-run effects. Using a panel of 16 industrialized Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries over the 1957: Q 1 to 2000: Q 1 period, we find that anticipated inflation and inflation uncertainty tend to have insignificant short-run effects, while they appear to have negative long-run impacts on real stock returns. Moreover, we find coexistence of a negative long-run effect and a positive short-run effect of unanticipated inflation on real stock returns. These findings help clarify the conflicting conclusions of both empirical and theoretical studies on this issue. ( JEL C23, E31, G12)     

THE SUPPLY OF INDIVIDUAL HOURS AND LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION UNDER UNCERTAINTY

In the absence of labor supply constraints, this paper shows that an increase in wage-rate uncertainty alters the optimal supply of individual hours but leaves the decision to participate unchanged. In the presence of these constraints, it is shown that if researchers are concerned with obtaining consistent parameter estimates of the labor supply function, then it is important to correctly specify the type of uncertainty faced by workers. Specifically, a mean preserving increase- in wage-rate uncertainty lowers the participation rate, while an increase in non-wage income uncertainty raises participation.     

SEASONALITY AND THE MONETIZATION OF FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICITS

Prior findings that federal government budget deficits promptly lead to increases in the monetary base are unreliable. These findings are due largely to inadequate treatment of seasonality in post-war quarterly data. Once seasonality is properly modeled, no further short-run relation is apparent. Theory suggests that there may be a long-run relation between deficits and money growth. If such a relation exists, the sample of postwar U.S. data is too small to identify it.     

CAN GOVERNMENT ENFORCEMENT PERMANENTLY ALTER FERTILITY? THE CASE OF CHINA

We quantitatively assess the main sources of fertility fluctuations in China and find that only preference ships, involving education, health care and the employment and social status of women, can generate a statistically significant long-run decline in fertility growth. However, the government's enforcement power can explain some short-run movements infertility. To examine the effect of key variables, we modify a growth model with endogenous fertility to represent the average rural household's fertility decisions under government imposed constraints. The model provides the structure necessary to econometrically identify shocks to government enforcement ability, agricultural output and preferences toward fertility.     

ADJUSTMENT TO PRODUCTION UNCERTAINTY AND THE THEORY OF THE FIRM: A COMMENT

This paper reconsiders the model presented by Flacco and Kroetch [1986]. It shows that with additive technological uncertainty the firm will produce and contract to sell the same output as under certainty. When the Flacco/Kroetch model is generalized to allow the firm to select contract commitments and planned output ex ante, no simple comparisons with certainty are possible. These results are broadly consistent with those obtained by Mills [1959; 1962] for demand uncertainty.     

THE EFFECTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE LEVERAGE OF NONFINANCIAL FIRMS

This paper investigates the link between the optimal level of nonfinancial firms' short-term leverage and macroeconomic and idiosyncratic sources of uncertainty. We develop a structural model of a firm's value maximization problem that predicts a negative relationship between uncertainty and optimal levels of borrowing. This proposition is tested using a panel of nonfinancial U.S. firms drawn from the COMPUSTAT quarterly database covering the period 1993–2003. The estimates confirm that as either form of uncertainty increases, firms decrease their levels of short-term leverage. This effect is stronger for macroeconomic uncertainty than for idiosyncratic uncertainty. ( JEL C23, D8, D92, G32)     

DO EMPLOYERS PAY FOR CONSISTENT PERFORMANCE?: EVIDENCE FROM THE NBA

In a world of uncertainty in which a worker's performance is variable over time and average performance is unknown when hiring, how will employers determine compensation? We develop a monitoring and signaling model where information is symmetric and parties are risk neutral. Monitoring costs increase with inconsistency, lowering pay for inconsistent workers. If discrimination exists, minority workers will be rewarded less than majority workers for improving consistency. Testing these and other predictions using National Basketball Association data, we find that consistent professional basketball players are paid more, but, in contrast to previous studies, there is no evidence of discrimination. (JEL J3, J7)     

THE FINANCIAL AND TAX EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY ON INTEREST RATES

Standard analysis of monetary policy effects on interest rates in terms of liquidity, income, and expectations effects is incomplete. After a change in monetary policy, substitution among securities will increase as time elapses and so reduce or eliminate financial effects caused by short-run financial market segmentation. Also, the standard expectations effect omits the transfer of income tax liability on that part of the interest payment representing a return of real capital. So a 1 percentage point increase in the expected inflation rate should increase the nominal interest rate by 1/(1 —τ) percentage points, τ being the marginal tax rate.     

MACROECONOMIC STABILITY AND THE SHORT RUN FEDERAL RESERVE REACTION FUNCTION, 1969–1979

This paper examines the dynamic stability of a situation in which monetary policy is implemented by means of short-run control of interest rates. Using a simple dynamic model it is shown that such procedures may lead to instability unless the central bank allows the controlled interest rate to adjust sufficiently to economic developments. The theoretical model is then used to guide an empirical examination and evaluation of Federal Reserve behavior for the period 1969–1979. Evidence is presented that on average over this period the Federal Reserve's control of the Federal funds rate could have been a destabilizing factor.     

On the formation of inflationary expectations: Some empirical evidence from Finland, 1979–1980

The results of a survey of inflationary expectations executed in 1979–1980 are reported. The respondents form one “informed” and one “uninformed” group. The purpose of the study are: (1) to test standard hypotheses on the formation of inflationary expectations, (2) to study the term structure of those expectations, (3) to study their dispersion among individuals, (4) to investigate the uncertainty in the formation of expectations.The results suggest that the adaptive expectations formation model works best for the uninformed group, while the extrapolative model is more satisfactory for the informed group. The lagged rate of unemployment was found to be a significant explanatory variable as well. Long-run inflationary expectations turned out to be very similar to short-run predictions, although the dispersion among individuals was greater in the former case. The uninformed respondents also expressed expectations with a greater dispersion than the informed respondents. The standard deviation of the expectations was quite stable over the observation period. The proxy used for subjective uncertainty also indicates a high degree of stability.     

THE REACTION OF EXCHANGE RATES TO ECONOMIC NEWS

This paper examines the short-run responses of spot exchange rates to several types of economic news. Survey data are used to divide economic announcements into expected and unexpected components with the latter measuring news. The results indicate that exchange rates are systematically related to unexpected money announcements after the October 1979 switch in Federal Reserve operating procedures but not before. This response does not appear to have changed, however, after the October 1982 Federal Reserve regime change. Short-run exchange rate movements are not systematically related to news on inflation or real activity.     

STOCHASTIC INPUT DELIVERIES

The subject of this paper is the theory of the firm confronted with uncertain deliveries of its inputs. Examples of this form of uncertainty may be found in interruptible natural gas or electricity supply contracts, labor absenteeism and allocations of gasoline. Analyses of the firm's order quantity expansion path and order intensities are conducted. Comparisons are made between the optimal values of inputs selected under certainty and uncertainty, as well as comparisons between expected out-put and certainty output.     

Strike strategies and the minimum effective union

Research has shown that in an industry-wide strike, a union must be able to reduce output “by a substantial percentage below competitive levels” to impose hardship on producers. But a union may also be effective by pursuing selective strikes. If some producers are struck while others are free to operate, then the targeted producers may bargain with the union, and holdouts can be targeted for strikes. This article analyzes the effects of selective and general strikes on both a competitive industry and a duopoly. If there are side-payments among producers, then general strikes are easier to mount. If there is no mutual aid among employers, then selective strikes are less costly to implement. It is also shown that strikes are easier to mount in a duopoly than in a competitive industry. This may contribute to union formation and collective bargaining in noncompetitive industries. The analysis is modified to allow for firms of different sizes. The results show that unions must be able to remove more output from larger firms than smaller ones, suggesting that union formation may be focused more on larger firms. The author thanks Mark Loewenstein, James Fain, and Campbell McConnell for thoughtful comments and suggestions. The author gratefully acknowledges a research grant from the College of Business Administration of the University of Nebraska. I am responsible for any remaining shortcomings.     

ARE AUTOMOBILE SAFETY REGULATIONS WORTH THE PRICE: EVIDENCE FROM USED CAR MARKETS

The value consumers place on automobile safety regulations can be determined by examining the instantaneous effects changes in these regulations have on used vehicle prices. If consumers value safety regulations more than their cost, used vehicle prices decrease in response to a change in safety regulations. If consumers place at least some value on the safety induced by safety regulations, a change in emission control regulations will have a greater positive impact on used automobile prices than a change in safety regulations. Empirical results strongly support the latter case and, surprisingly, offer some support for the former case. (JEL L51, L62)     

AN EMPIRICAL MODEL OF PRICE AND OUTPUT BEHAVIOR

This paper proposes a model of short-run price and output behavior and undertakes an initial empirical investigation of the model with data from the manufacturing sector of the U.S. Economy. The model provides a relatively precise specification of the various factors that influence prices and output, and joint maximum likelihood techniques are used to estimate the parameters of the model. The empirical results support the proposition that demand-oriented forces primarily influence output while cost-push forces primarily influence prices and indicate that real interest rates affect both prices and output.