对商业银行经济资本管理问题的思考

自上世纪90年代以来,随着商业银行对资本管理与风险管理的认识不断加深,一种新的银行经营管理体系逐渐的形成了。这种新的银行经营管理体系以经济资本管理为核心,较好的解决了商业银行风险与收益怎样平衡的问题。近年来,国内的一些商业银行逐步的引入国际先进的经济资本管理理念,实施全面的经济资本管理。商业银行树立的这种经济资本管理理念得到了中国银监会的支持,以经济资本为核心的考核体系也逐步的建立起来。商业银行实施经济资本管理不仅仅能在很大程度上提高其风险管理水平,同时对推动中国金融改革具有重大的战略意义。     

宏观经济变量影响下的银行极端操作风险研究

操作风险管理是当前金融和监管机构密切关注的焦点,但其低频高危数据的严重缺失一直阻碍着极端操作风险度量模型的应用.本文构建了考虑发生频度的复合泊松过程应用模型,从广义帕累托分布(GPD)与广义极值分布(GEV)两种角度度量商业银行的极端操作风险.通过采用国际活跃银行的资本市场数据,基于宏观经济变量影响的Fama-French多因素模型,剥离传统的市场风险、信用风险以及流动性风险等获得综合操作风险极端数据,模拟测度外部事件影响下的银行极端操作风险发现:基于POT(过阈值峰值模型)方法估算的OpCVaR(操作风险的条件在险价值)高于其累积的在险价值,而BMM(分块极值模型)方法提供了一定期限内金融机构的最大损失额频度;且实证分析发现中资银行就其外部宏观经济影响下的极端操作风险而言,普遍低于其国际同行,但排除此次金融危机的系统性影响,则国际活跃银行的风控能力更稳定,这对改善我国银行操作风险管理和监管极具实践意义.     

RAROC及其在商业银行风险管理中的应用

上世纪80年代以来,全球一体化和金融自由化加在了商业银行经营管理的风险水平,许多商业银行损失惨重,尤其是巴林银行的倒闭等重大事件使各大银行充分意识到全面风险管理至关重要。历经几十年的发展,国外商业银行在风险管理方面已经深入到银行的各个层面。RAROC（Risk Adiusted on Capital）即风险调整的资本收益率,是由美国信孚银行（Bankers Trust）于20世纪70年代提出的,其最初目的是为了度量银行信贷资产的组合风险,测算风险暴露缺失所需的权益资本。后来逐渐被世界银行业所认可,并成为全面风险管理的核心指标及关键技术。本文阐述了商业银行风险管理的发展历程及全面风险管理兴起的原因,介绍了RAROC的计算方法,分析了西方银行RAROC方法进行经济资本配置、货款定价和绩效评价伯应用情况。     

基于期权与高频数据信息的VaR度量研究

传统的市场风险度量模型没有充分利用期权与高频数据包含的信息,且主要基于单因子波动率模型,导致信息的损失以及模型缺乏足够的灵活性.本文基于灵活的双因子随机波动率模型,通过提取期权与高频数据包含的市场前瞻与当前信息,构建相应的市场风险度量波动率模型对在险值（VaR）进行度量.为了估计模型参数,建立基于连续粒子滤波的极大似然估计方法.采用iVX指数与已实现波动率测度（RV）作为上证50ETF期权与高频数据信息的代理,对构建的市场风险度量波动率模型进行了实证检验,结果表明：充分利用了期权与高频数据信息的双因子随机波动率模型能够在快速变化的市场环境中更好地估计波动率,相比其它波动率模型（仅利用了历史数据信息的GARCH模型、利用了高频数据信息的已实现GARCH模型以及利用了期权与高频数据信息的单因子随机波动率模型）具有更为优越的VaR度量精确性,尤其是极端风险情形下的VaR估计精确性改进明显,凸显了期权与高频数据信息以及双因子波动率在市场风险管理中的价值.     

实现商业银行经济资本管理工作初探

随着全球经济一体化进程的不断深入,越来越多的外商投资银行进入中国市场,我国商业银行面临着日益激烈的竞争。商业银行的主要业务是经营货币和风险管理,经济资本是其进行偿付和风险缓冲的基础。为了进一步提升商业银行的总体实力,银行必须对经济资本进行有效地管理。本文分析了我国目前商业银行经济资本管理的现状以及存在的问题,并提出了相应的改善对策。     

我国商业银行资本管理研究

银行资本是商业银行抵御风险、保证整个银行体系健康运转的基础。资本的数量和结构同时还影响到银行的安全程度,进而影响到整个社会经济的稳定。因此,资本也是监管当局对商业银行进行严格监管的重点。因此进一步对我国商业银行资本管理所能遇到的问题进行研究和所应处以面对问题的对策的推敲与选择至关重要。我国商业银行迫切需要加快风险管理的步伐,逐步改进经济资本管理的模式,研究我国商业银行经济资本管理有很重要的现实意义。     

基于目标的风险度量方法

VaR和CVaR在国内外风险管理实践中得到了普遍应用,但监管者以概率置信水平作为其监管目标的方法对于实际投资者的风险度量而言并不是很直观,投资者更加关心的是资产目标价值能否实现的风险.将资产的目标价值以直观的方式加入到风险的定义中,提出了广义一致风险测度公理假设,并证明了广义一致风险测度也具有很好的性质.此外,看跌期权作为测度风险的有效方法,具有直观的经济含义,可以证明它满足广义一致风险测度公理假设.最后建立了看跌期权费风险测度和E-VaR/E-CVaR之间的数量关系.     

基于目标的风险度量方法

VaR和CVaR在国内外风险管理实践中得到了普遍应用,但监管者以概率置信水平作为其监管目标的方法对于实际投资者的风险度量而言并不是很直观,投资者更加关心的是资产目标价值能否实现的风险.将资产的目标价值以直观的方式加入到风险的定义中,提出了广义一致风险测度公理假设,并证明了广义一致风险测度也具有很好的性质.此外,看跌期权作为测度风险的有效方法,具有直观的经济含义,可以证明它满足广义一致风险测度公理假设.最后建立了看跌期权费风险测度和E-VaR/E-CVaR之间的数量关系.     

基于资本结构和风险考虑的中国商业银行X—效率研究

利用包含和不包含资本结构与风险的两组样本,采用正态—半正态的SFA模型和最大似然估计技术,本文测度了中国3类15家商业银行1996～2003年的成本X—效率情况,并按X—效率的平均水平对银行排序。实证发现,资本结构和风险影响银行的X—效率水平和排序,其中对国有银行的影响最大;中国主要商业银行成本X—效率总体情况较差,彼此差异较大;在3类银行中,上市类银行的X—效率情况最好,国有银行最差。     

浅析我国商业银行风险管理

一、商业银行风险管理的概念巴塞尔委员会将银行风险分为八类：信用风险、国家和转移风险、市场风险、利率风险、流动性风险、操作风险、法律风险和声誉风险。巴塞尔新资本协议对资本充足率有新的更进一步的要求：把评估银行资本充足率的工作与银行面对的主要风险更紧密地结合起来,有多少风险就应该有多少资本,风险越大的银行资本就应该越多。商业银行的风险管理是指商业银行为实现自身的经营目标,在业务经营过程中,运用现代管理方法对其业务风险进行识别、衡量和处理的活动以及金融管理当局为实现金融、经济稳定健康发展的要求,对商业银行风险实施的外部监管活动的总称。     

Risk Management of Domino Effects Considering Dynamic Consequence Analysis

Domino effects are low‐probability high‐consequence accidents causing severe damage to humans, process plants, and the environment. Because domino effects affect large areas and are difficult to control, preventive safety measures have been given priority over mitigative measures. As a result, safety distances and safety inventories have been used as preventive safety measures to reduce the escalation probability of domino effects. However, these safety measures are usually designed considering static accident scenarios. In this study, we show that compared to a static worst‐case accident analysis, a dynamic consequence analysis provides a more rational approach for risk assessment and management of domino effects. This study also presents the application of Bayesian networks and conflict analysis to risk‐based allocation of chemical inventories to minimize the consequences and thus to reduce the escalation probability. It emphasizes the risk management of chemical inventories as an inherent safety measure, particularly in existing process plants where the applicability of other safety measures such as safety distances is limited.     

A Cognitive‐Affective Scale for Hurricane Risk Perception

The aim of this study was to develop a reliable and valid measure of hurricane risk perception. The utility of such a measure lies in the need to understand how people make decisions when facing an evacuation order. This study included participants located within a 15‐mile buffer of the Gulf and southeast Atlantic U.S. coasts. The study was executed as a three‐wave panel with mail surveys in 2010–2012 (T₀ baseline N = 629, 56%; T₁ retention N = 427, 75%; T₂ retention N = 350, 89%). An inventory based on the psychometric model was developed to discriminate cognitive and affective perceptions of hurricane risk, and included open‐ended responses to solicit additional concepts in the T₀ survey. Analysis of the T₀ data modified the inventory and this revised item set was fielded at T₁ and then replicated at T₂. The resulting scales were assessed for validity against existing measures for perception of hurricane risk, dispositional optimism, and locus of control. A measure of evacuation expectation was also examined as a dependent variable, which was significantly predicted by the new measures. The resulting scale was found to be reliable, stable, and largely valid against the comparison measures. Despite limitations involving sample size, bias, and the strength of some reliabilities, it was concluded that the measure has potential to inform approaches to hurricane preparedness efforts and advance planning for evacuation messages, and that the measure has good promise to generalize to other contexts in natural hazards as well as other domains of risk.     

RISK AVERSION,WEALTH, AND BACKGROUND RISK

We use household survey data to construct a direct measure of absolute risk aversion based on the maximum price a consumer is willing to pay for a risky security. We relate this measure to consumer's endowments and attributes and to measures of background risk and liquidity constraints. We find that risk aversion is a decreasing function of the endowment—thus rejecting CARA preferences. We estimate the elasticity of risk aversion to consumption at about 0.7, below the unitary value predicted by CRRA utility. We also find that households' attributes are of little help in predicting their degree of risk aversion, which is characterized by massive unexplained heterogeneity. We show that the consumer's environment affects risk aversion. Individuals who are more likely to face income uncertainty or to become liquidity constrained exhibit a higher degree of absolute risk aversion, consistent with recent theories of attitudes toward risk in the presence of uninsurable risks. (JEL: D1, D8)     

Examining the Relationship Between Affect and Implicit Associations: Implications for Risk Perception

It has been suggested that affect may play an important role in risk perception. Slovic et al. argued that people make use of the “affect heuristic” when assessing risks because it is easier and more efficient to rely on spontaneous affective reactions than to analyze all available information. In the present studies, a single category implicit association test (SC‐IAT) to measure associations evoked by different hazards was employed. In the first study, we tested the extent to which the SC‐IAT corresponds to the theoretical construct of affect in a risk framework. Specifically, we found that the SC‐IAT correlates with other explicit measures that claim to measure affect, as well as with a measure of trust, but not with a measure that captures a different construct (subjective knowledge). In the second study, we addressed the question of whether hazards that vary along the dread dimension of the psychometric paradigm also differ in the affect they evoke. The results of the SC‐IAT indicated that a high‐dread hazard (nuclear power) elicits negative associations. Moreover, the high‐dread hazard evoked more negative associations than a medium‐dread hazard (hydroelectric power). In contrast, a nondread hazard (home appliances) led to positive associations. The results of our study highlight the importance of affect in shaping attitudes and opinions toward risks. The results further suggest that implicit measures may provide valuable insight into people's risk perception above and beyond explicit measures.     

Organizational context, climate and innovativeness: adoption of imaging technology

Managers make decisions to adopt technological innovations within an organizational context. This research explores the role of organizational climate as it affects the impacts of organizational context on innovativeness. Context refers here to organizational size, slack resources, and organizational age. We analyze three known climate dimensions as moderator variables: risk orientation, external orientation, and achievement orientation. Data describe the adoption of medical imaging technologies by 70 hospitals. Climate measures come from several technology decision-makers within each organization. Technology measures of radicalness and relative advantage are ratings by five outside experts in the use of these 68 technologies. The study also includes the traditional measure that counts the overall number of innovations adopted. Innovativeness is a multi-dimensional composite variable composed of radicalness, relative advantage, and number of innovations adopted. As expected, results show that organizational size and slack are positively related with innovativeness. Hierarchical regression analyses indicate that the climate measures of risk orientation and external orientation interact significantly with the context dimensions of organizational size and organizational age. The model developed and tested in this project explains over 50% of the total variance in innovativeness.     

Deciding with Thresholds: Importance Measures and Value of Information

Risk‐informed decision making is often accompanied by the specification of an acceptable level of risk. Such target level is compared against the value of a risk metric, usually computed through a probabilistic safety assessment model, to decide about the acceptability of a given design, the launch of a space mission, etc. Importance measures complement the decision process with information about the risk/safety significance of events. However, importance measures do not tell us whether the occurrence of an event can change the overarching decision. By linking value of information and importance measures for probabilistic risk assessment models, this work obtains a value‐of‐information‐based importance measure that brings together the risk metric, risk importance measures, and the risk threshold in one expression. The new importance measure does not impose additional computational burden because it can be calculated from our knowledge of the risk achievement and risk reduction worth, and complements the insights delivered by these importance measures. Several properties are discussed, including the joint decision worth of basic event groups. The application to the large loss of coolant accident sequence of the Advanced Test Reactor helps us in illustrating the risk analysis insights.     

Developing a Broadly Applicable Measure of Risk Perception

Decades of research identify risk perception as a largely intuitive and affective construct, in contrast to the more deliberative assessments of probability and consequences that form the foundation of risk assessment. However, a review of the literature reveals that many of the risk perception measures employed in survey research with human subjects are either generic in nature, not capturing any particular affective, probabilistic, or consequential dimension of risk; or focused solely on judgments of probability. The goal of this research was to assess a multidimensional measure of risk perception across multiple hazards to identify a measure that will be broadly useful for assessing perceived risk moving forward. Our results support the idea of risk perception being multidimensional, but largely a function of individual affective reactions to the hazard. We also find that our measure of risk perception holds across multiple types of hazards, ranging from those that are behavioral in nature (e.g., health and safety behaviors), to those that are technological (e.g., pollution), or natural (e.g., extreme weather). We suggest that a general, unidimensional measure of risk may accurately capture one's perception of the severity of the consequences, and the discrete emotions that are felt in response to those potential consequences. However, such a measure is not likely to capture the perceived probability of experiencing the outcomes, nor will it be as useful at understanding one's motivation to take mitigation action.     

On the Relationship between Safety and Decision Significance

Risk analysts are often concerned with identifying key safety drivers, that is, the systems, structures, and components (SSCs) that matter the most to safety. SSCs importance is assessed both in the design phase (i.e., before a system is built) and in the implementation phase (i.e., when the system has been built) using the same importance measures. However, in a design phase, it would be necessary to appreciate whether the failure/success of a given SSC can cause the overall decision to change from accept to reject (decision significance). This work addresses the search for the conditions under which SSCs that are safety significant are also decision significant. To address this issue, the work proposes the notion of a θ‐importance measure. We study in detail the relationships among risk importance measures to determine which properties guarantee that the ranking of SSCs does not change before and after the decision is made. An application to a probabilistic safety assessment model developed at NASA illustrates the risk management implications of our work.