The Menagerie of the Senses

ABSTRACT

The term “menagerie” convenes two claims: firstly that our relation to our senses is one of active and constructive management (the old sense of the word “menagerie”), and that animal senses, or our idea of them, play an indispensable part in that management of the senses. While our senses mediate the world to us, animals mediate our senses to us; animals are thus the mediators of the mediation. A review of the use of animals as emblems of the five senses in medieval and early modern illustrations shows that while, on the one hand, animals were used to enforce the idea of the lowliness of the senses, on the other hand, the awareness of the superiority of certain animal senses encouraged the imaginative recruitment of animals to augment or transform human powers. This is brought to a focus in representations of the fly. Finally, this essay considers the part played by simulations of animal perception in the development of new technologies for augmenting and extending human senses. The new organs, perceptions and forms of awareness of our world continue to implicate and improvise upon the animals, which helps us to take leave of our senses.     

Simulation of a debtor country: The example of Colombia

A dynamic model, illustrated on Colombian data, simulates the functioning of an open economy under specified parametric conditions and selected policy scenarios. Unlike the usual two-sector models, the rate of growth of GDP is generated endogenously. Whereas related models perform sensitivity analysis for variations in parameters our procedure makes n possible to simulate policy alternatives under balance-of-payments pressure. The simulations explore the implications of policy options when debt services on inherited and new foreign indebtedness act as constraints on the debtor's growth, especially when new external borrowing is limited.     

Simulating Human Behavior for Understanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use

Computer simulation allows for the experimental study of dynamic interactions between human behavior and complex environmental systems. Behavioral determinants and processes as identified in social-scientific theory may be formalized in simulated agents to obtain a better understanding of man–environment interactions and of policy measures aimed at managing these interactions. A number of exemplary agent-based simulation studies is discussed to demonstrate how simulations can be used to identify behavioral determinants and processes underlying environmental problems, and to explore the possible effects of policy strategies. Finally, we highlight how agent-based simulation may contribute to our understanding of the dynamics of environmental resources, and how to manage them in a sustainable way.     

Fiscal rules in a volatile world: A welfare-based approach

It is widely agreed that a fiscal rule should boost discipline and credibility. A rule should also reduce macroeconomic volatility and be easily understood. Toward such ends, a government may run structural surpluses. In so doing, the government accumulates a precautionary cushion of assets on behalf of agents who do not enjoy access to capital markets. As an additional criterion, that level of assets should be bounded. We provide an example of a structural surplus rule that satisfies all such criteria. In our general equilibrium simulations, we show that such a rule benefits credit-constrained consumers but may hurt others.     

Output gap and non-linear economic convergence

We apply unit root tests in a multivariate TAR model with bootstrapping simulations to assess the influence of short-run economic conditions on long-run economic convergence and to extract economic policy implications. We use two different groups of countries whose members share important business cycle characteristics over the period 1953–2010. We show that per capita income convergence is not uniform along the business cycle and our analysis reveals that, apart from growth-led actions and structural reforms to avoid the evolution towards different national stationary states – especially within the euro zone – short-run stabilisation policies are vividly advised to guarantee long-run economic convergence.     

The debt trap: A two-compartment train wreck… and how to avoid it

We explore sustainable paths out of a debt trap with a highly stylized two-sector differential equations model for the stocks of money in Government and Society. The model fits the data for the U.S. between 1981 and 2012 with a coefficient of correlation of 0.996. The solutions provide detailed “escape conditions” from the debt trap. A primary surplus is required. Then a government can escape its debt trap either through sustained annual monetary outflows from society to the government (taxation) but with a low initial growth rate, or through annual monetary inflows into both sectors (stimulus) with higher initial growth rate. We illustrate the use of our model with simulations which show how five indebted countries can escape their debt trap in 30 (or 70) years.     

A general equilibrium model of domestic commerce in Mexico

In this paper we develop a general equilibrium model of the Mexican economy that focuses on the commercial sector, particularly retailing. Consumers purchase goods in different retail establishments, that sell differentiated goods at different prices. Where each consumer decides to make purchases depends on various price and locational considerations. The model has been calibrated to replicate the Mexican economy in 1977, the latest year for which a complete data set is available. We use it to analyze both the impact of the 1980 fiscal reform, a major policy charge for the economy as a whole, and that of a hypothetical development project aimed specifically at the commercial sector. Although our model was conceived and developed well prior to the current period of highly inflationary policies of the debt crisis, the latter was taken into consideration during both the simulations and their policy evaluation.     

Abstractions on steroids: A critical realist approach to computer simulations

Computer simulations are increasingly used within various fields of the social sciences, including analytical sociology and computational social science. However, the method has yet to fully find its place within critical realism, generally regarded as reductionist and methodological individualist and thus inadequate to the task of grasping the full and enigmatic complexity of social life. This article contributes to the discussion by suggesting an alternative approach to computer simulations in the social realm. Instead of representing reality, simulations are seen as a way of boosting abstraction by enabling us to isolate and study the effects of emergent mechanisms. The need for such tools is growing more urgent in an age characterized by rapid change and global networks of causal interrelation. Hence there is a need not only for new tools to deal with causal complexity within critical realism, but also for a critical realist perspective to fill the meta‐theoretical vacuum on which the simulation approach is largely based. The approach developed here provides a challenge to the predominant ways in which simulations are utilized today, with increasingly sophisticated models aiming towards realistic representation on the basis of empirical data.     

The impact of government spending on Ireland’s housing and residential market – Targeted vs economy-wide stimulus

The Irish residential property market is currently characterized by a considerable structural deficiency in housing supply compared to the underlying level of demand. The lack of housing has led to several economic and social problems in Ireland. The imbalance between supply and demand has led to both house prices and rents increasing faster than household incomes. Recent policy initiatives by the Irish Government have outlined plans for significant spending aimed at increasing the numbers of housing completions to tackle these issues. This paper examines the impact of government spending on housing supply using a structural econometric model of the Irish economy with a specific construction block. Within our econometric analysis, we compare the results of an economy wide versus a sector specific government stimulus on the property market. Our simulations suggest that, in order to achieve social and economic goals like increasing the number of dwellings and making housing more affordable by containing house price inflation, a targeted policy such as that described in the Irish Government's Housing for All plan may be preferable to an economy-wide stimulus.     

Reporting probabilistic expectations with dynamic uncertainty about possible distributions

We study how experimental subjects report subjective probability distributions in the presence of ambiguity characterized by uncertainty over a fixed set of possible probability distributions generating future outcomes. Subjects observe draws from the true but unknown probability distribution generating outcomes at the beginning of each period of the experiment and state at selected periods a) the likelihoods that each probability distribution in the set is the true distribution, and b) the likelihoods of future outcomes. We estimate heterogeneity of rules used to update uncertainty about the true distribution and rules used to report distributions of future outcomes. We find that approximately 65% of subjects report distributions by properly weighing the possible distributions using their expressed uncertainty over them, while 22% of subjects report distributions close to the distribution they perceive as most likely. We find significant heterogeneity in how subjects update their expressed uncertainty. On average, subjects tend to overweigh the importance of their prior uncertainty relative to new information, leading to ambiguity that is substantially more persistent than would be predicted using Bayes’ rule. Counterfactual simulations suggest that this persistence will likely hold in settings not covered by our experiment.     

Invariant structures of prognosis curves in Forrester's World Dynamics

This paper deals with some results of various simulations with Forrester's World Dynamics. These simulations concern the temporal and quantitative fixing of limits in relation to initial values and deal with the effects of specific table functions in this model. In addition, they also treat the behavior of the curves in approaching the limits.     

The role of macroeconomic policies in the global crisis

This paper argues that the lack of timely and decisive policy action to correct domestic and external imbalances contributed crucially to the build-up of financial excesses that led to the financial crisis and the Great Recession. We focus on 2002–2007 and perform a number of counterfactual simulations to investigate two central elements of the story, namely: (a) an over-expansionary US monetary policy and the absence of effective macro-prudential supervision, which permitted a prolonged expansion of debt-financed consumer spending and (b) the choice by China and other emerging countries to pursue an export-led growth strategy supported by pegging their currencies to the US dollar, in conjunction with sluggish domestic demand in major advanced economies characterized by low potential output growth. The results of the simulations lend support to the view that if substantial, globally coordinated demand rebalancing had been undertaken early on, the macroeconomic and financial imbalances would not have accumulated to the extent that they did and the financial turmoil might have had less drastic global consequences.     

Inflation and aggregate demand shocks

This paper derives and estimates a small general equilibrium model under the assumptions of imperfect competition and translog technology to simulate the impact of shifts in aggregate demand on prices. The simulations suggest that demand expansions are deflationary. This result challenges the common perception that the dynamic aggregate supply schedule is upward sloping.     

Models of supranational policymaking and the reform of the EMU

Under what conditions do sovereign governments agree to create a common policy institution? And what model of supranational policymaking may be preferable? To answer these questions, we introduce a policy game of two interdependent countries with reciprocal negative externalities created by shocks to a socially relevant variable. Depending on national preferences over policy options and their outcomes, both countries incur welfare losses if governments pursue non-cooperative policy choices. Then we examine what kind of supranational policy regimes may be endorsed by both governments according to the Pareto criterion. Two regimes are “technocratic” (they do not take national preferences into account), two are “political” (they do). One political regime that we call “union” aggregates the national preferences additively. The thrust of our analysis is that the technocratic regimes are dominated by non-cooperation, so that the single alternative is between the union and non-cooperation. Yet an important point is that the union is the Pareto-dominant regime only within a limited range of asymmetry between countries’ preferences. This result has notable implications for the debate on the reform of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) facing the challenge of further integration of member countries. Application to the EMU case is assisted by numerical simulations based on empirical parameters drawn from qualified external sources, which show that aymmetries in national attitudes towards policies that “Europe wants” may jeopardize the creation of a union in alternative to non-cooperation.     

Environmental taxation and the double dividend hypothesis in CGE modelling literature: A critical review

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling is a flexible and open way to model the economic systems that allow practitioners to assess the impacts of different policies or external shocks over an economic system. There is some empirical literature dedicated to test the double dividend hypothesis of an environmental tax reform using CGE models. This hypothesis claims that is possible to obtain an improvement of both environmental and economic conditions by imposing an environmental tax and recycling revenues obtained to reduce other pre-existing taxes. This research provides a comprehensive review of this literature including a statistical and a meta-regression analysis. 69 different simulations from 40 studies have been analyzed. 55% of simulations have achieved a double dividend, concluding that although the environmental dividend is almost always achieved, the economic dividend still remains an ambiguous question that needs further research.     

The Emergence of Reactive Strategies in Simulated Heterogeneous Populations

The computer simulation study explores the impact of the duration of social impact on the generation and stabilization of cooperative strategies. Rather than seeding the simulations with a finite set of strategies, a continuous distribution of strategies is being defined. Members of heterogeneous populations were characterized by a pair of probabilistic reactive strategies: the probability to respond to cooperation by cooperation and the probability to respond to defection by cooperation. This generalized reactive strategy yields the standard TFT mechanism, the All-Cooperate, All-Defect and Bully strategies as special cases. Pairs of strategies interacted through a Prisoner's Dilemma game and exerted social influence on all other members. Manipulating: (i) the initial distribution of populations' strategies, and (ii) the duration of social influence, we monitored the conditions leading to the emergence and stabilization of cooperative strategies. Results show that: (1) The duration of interactions between pairs of strategies constitutes a crucial factor for the emergence and stabilization of cooperative strategies, (2) Unless sufficient learning intervals are provided, initializing the simulations with cooperative populations does not guarantee that cooperation will sustain.     

Multiple objective policy analysis: A factor analysis and tradeoff approach applied to the agricultural sector of the Dominican Republic

The technique of factor analysis is applied to a situation in which result data from multiple objective policy analysis need to be reduced to a subset of information for policy makers. Use of factor analysis in this context is developed in some detail, and the process is applied to results of pricing policy simulations from a model of the agricultural sector of the Dominican Republic. It is concluded that factor analysis can be a useful first step for the analyst to determine the relationships among groups of variables. The technique also aids the process of data reduction to allow graphical presentation of tradeoffs.     

The Independent Localisations of Interaction and Learning in the Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma

The results of a series of computer simulations demonstrate how the introduction of separate spatial dimensions for agent interaction and learning respectively affects the possibility of cooperation evolving in the repeated prisoner's dilemma played by populations of boundedly-rational agents. In particular, the localisation of learning promotes the emergence of cooperative behaviour, while the localisation of interaction has an ambiguous effect on it.     

A new approach to assessing ethical conduct in scientific work

The intent of the current article is to describe the development of a new approach to the study of ethical conduct in scientific research settings. The approach presented in this article has two main components. The first component entails the development of a taxonomy of ethical events as they occur across a broad range of scientific disciplines. The second involves the identification of proximate criteria that will allow systematic and objective evaluation of ethical behaviors through low-fidelity performance simulations. Two proposed measures based on the new approach are intended to identify and measure variations in the scientific environment that might predispose certain individuals to make unethical decisions.     

Exchange rate policies simulated by means of a disequilibrium model of the Finnish economy

In this paper a model for the Finnish economy with disequilibrium in the goods and financial markets is specified and estimated by single equation methods. The transmission mechanisms of the model are studied in the framework of various devaluation simulations. The model is very sensitive, especially with respect to the prevailing credit market regime and possible regime changes. Policy effects are not so much affected by conditions in the goods market, assuming moderate policy shocks. These considerations suggest the importance in policy planning of identifying the regimes prevailing in the markets.