Study thoroughly the Marxist theory on population, develop population science in China]

The Third National Population Science Congress emphasized the production theory of Marxism, the basic difference between China's population control and the old and new Malthusianism, and possible social problems caused by the one child per couple policy. The meeting was well-organized, and the participants were actively involved; it included a keynote speech, group discussions, and seminars by specialists. Most people agreed that population production should be included in the social economy and that both material and population production should together decide the development of the society. Some people believed that Malthus' population theory is antirevolutionary and totally unacceptable. Others thought that there are some positive aspects such as the coordination of population with consumer goods and his population control measures. Many valuable suggestions were made in the meeting concerning population control. This Congress also established a Chinese Population Society, passed the bylaws, and elected members of the board of directors for the Society. Vice-Premier Chen gave an important closing speech about the importance of family planning and population control.     

Studying Marxist theory on population and initiating a new situation in demographic research]

Within Marxist ideology are important population theories that led to the establishment of demography and the work of population control in China. Marxist population theory should be studied in order to build a scientific system of concepts in population theory. Both Marx and Engels spoke of the relationship between human reproduction and material production, and of how the modes of social development determine population development. Marx also established the view that a normal population and surplus population both were mutually adaptable with a certain production basis. In any historical period, the total population is not determined subjectively by man's wishes, but is a product of historical development. The Maoist population theory is derived from Marxist theory. Borrowing from historical materialism, Mao said that of all the objects in the world, man is the most precious. Nevertheless, he continued, while China's large population is good, it brings many difficulties; thus, population must be controlled. The study of demography should follow Marxist and Maoist population theories, even though the study of Marixst population theory is relatively recent and much remains to be learned.     

马克思主义人口城市化理论

一般说来 ,在传统的自然经济条件下 ,人口流动性极低 ,在现代的市场经济条件下 ,人口的流动性较高。人口迁移的过程即是人口城市化的过程。无产阶级经典作家在分析资本主义现象和揭示资本主义运动规律的过程中 ,阐述了人口乡城迁移理论 ,揭示了人口城市化的一般规律 ,看到了人口重新分布带来的双重效应。     

The outlook of China's population after the stabilization of birth policy

A professor of the Institute of Population Research of the People's University of China attempts to project the future population development of China so that stabilization of the birth policy can be assessed. He divides China into the economically developed and population-controlled area (29% of the population), the economically subdeveloped and population fairly-controlled areas (59% of the population), and the economically less-developed areas where fertility is high (12% of the population). China's population is expected to increase because of the baby boom to 1.25-1.3 billion by the year 2000. Between 1996 and 2000, the growth rate is expected to decelerate and reach zero growth. After 2010, if growth is held at the replacement rate of 2.1, the population will still continue to grow slowly. Around 2100, China's population should be around 1.45-1.59 billion. This would cause a decrease of 27% of arable land. With a decline in fertility rate comes a rise in the amount of the aged population (4.9% in 1982 vs. 5.5% in 1987). The proportion of aged citizens is expected to rise with the stabilization policy until around 2040 where it can be held at about 18%. China's GNP by the year 2000 is expected to be US$1183.8 billion with the per capita GNP about US$934 (providing the population is controlled). Compare this figure with the per capita GNP of the world (US$30,100) and of developed countries (US$10,700) in 1988, and one can see that China is far behind the rest of the world in economic growth.     

The population situation in Africa]

The population growth rate in Africa has been the highest in the world since 1970--about 2.7% annually. A lower mortality rate because of better health conditions, their tradition of early marriage and polygamy, and the predominantly agricultural economy are the main reasons. The lack of coordination of such rapid population growth with the slow economic development and backward industrial and agricultural conditions have caused a very serious unemployment problem and inhibit increases in the living standard. The vast areas of desert and equatorial forest are sparsely inhabited. The coastline, Nile delta, and the plateaus are the most densely populated areas of the world. The abnormally developed cities cause expansion of the urban population and serious problems in employment, housing, traffic, health, and education. Many leaders of African countries have begun to realize the seriousness of the rapid population growth, and a few have begun family planning programs. Most countries have no official policies concerning population control and a few even encourage population growth.     

The effect of new industries on changes in population]

Since 1978, China's Qionggang township (population, 8023; area, 3 sq. km), traditionally a fishing village on Jiangsu province's Huanghai coast, has been investing its local capital in an effort to establish several industrial enterprises including its own full-time local labor force. Currently, the rapidly expanding factory work force exceeds the number of fishermen. In addition to providing a statistically detailed chronology of the socioeconomic transition from a small fishing settlement to a rapidly growing industrial town, free-time activities, educational pursuits, and life styles of the newly formed labor force are discussed. From 1981 to 1983, Qionggang's industrial sector produced 4 metal vessels which were delivered directly to the town's fishing sector. With the town's newly generated economic wealth, commercial and public service facilities (i.e., a hospital, a kindergarten, several stores, a bank, and a credit union) have emerged. The economic development of Qionggang township has inspired other rural villages to clear and develop nearby land for similar industrial growth.     

The evaluation of China's population policy]

China's population policy has had tremendous effects on the reduction of fertility. The impact of the population policy is manifested in the following aspects. 1) Reducing the size of the total population by 200 million in 17 years. If the population growth rate had remained at its 1970 level of 2.6/1000, the total population would have been 1.28 billion in 1987. 2) The implementation of the population policy accelerated the process of demographic transition. The mortality decline which began in the early 1950s initiated the demographic transition. The Fertility decline began after the birth control policy was implemented and shifted the transition to a low population growth stage even before the socioeconomic conditions which are considered to be the determinants of fertility decline appeared. The fertility decline, in turn, promoted the socioeconomic development of the country. 3) Solving the problem of food; feeding 21.6% of the world's population on 7.1% of the world's farm land is no easy task. The success of population control, no doubt, played an important role in lowering the population growth rate so that the growth of food production could keep pace with the needs of the population. 4) A decline in the dependency ratio is a favorable condition to socioeconomic development. China's dependency ratio of 59.7 is among the lowest in developing countries and is close to the level in developed countries. Therefore, more production output can be used in investment rather than consumption. 5) The fertility decline facilitated a balanced economic growth. The ratio of population growth as compared to the growth of major economic indicators should be considered an important issue in maintaining macroeconomic control. The population policy made it possible for economic growth to surpass population growth.     

The effect of the new technological revolution on population dynamics]

The impact of modernization on population dynamics in China is examined. The author notes that the industrialization process involves the concentration of the population in urban areas and the mechanization of agriculture. The need to redistribute the urban population from major urban areas to smaller towns is noted.     

The registration of Chinese population in 1982]

The registration of the population is the most crucial part in the entire work of the population census, and it is also the most difficult task. Generally speaking, the population census includes three steps for the complete process: preparations before the census, the practical registration, and the final review. These three steps are closely related to one another, and they form a complete cycle. The preparations before the census include determination of the scope of the census, explanation to the general public of the meaning and significance and demand for the census, preliminary survey of the population situation for the area, and the establishment of registration stations. In the practical registration work, attention should be given to the method, procedure, and principles for the registration. Special arrangements should be made for the popultion who live on boats, move around and live from animal husbandry, and those who belong to ethnic minorities. As for the results of the registration, working staff is required to check and double-check their accuracy. Census regions and different communes should also check on one another's registration in order to correct any possible mistakes. In general, the registration of the populationin the 1982 census was successful, and both the quantity and quality of the registration were improved. This was made possible because of a close cooperation between the people and the government and the hard work by the staff.     

The role of population in social development]

This essay deals with population growth, varieties in population density, and their impacts on social development from the viewpoint of Socialism. The author's main argument can be summarized as follows: 1) population growth is a kind of social production, and it is more important than the geographical environment in relation to social development. Regarding population growth, varieties in population density, and the geographical environment as conditions of equal importance in social life is debatable. 2) the changes in population development should not be limited to the changes in number alone. As science and technology are developed, the impact of changes of population quality on social development is becoming increasingly important. 3) population growth is not the major force which determines the social outlook and social system, and it directly influences social productivity. One should not think that a large population and rapid growth rate will speed up social productivity, or that a small population and a slow growth rate will slow down the development of social productivity. The author quotes Joseph Stalin to support his argument.     

The relationships between population and economy, and between population and education]

The relationship between population and economy is regarded seriously by China and other countries. This problem can be analyzed and studied under 2 aspects: 1) the influence of economic development on changes in population, and 2) the influence of population increases on economic development. Under the 1st aspect, improved living conditions, hygiene, and health care generally result in lowered mortality rates. Improved economic conditions in China also increased the birthrate and at the same time increased birth control among the people; the increased birthrate was due to more marriages after liberation. In economically advanced countries, due to high expenses in raising children, people tend to limit family sizes to 2 children/family. Under the 2nd aspect, population increases place strains on the food supply and nutritional requirements, especially when increases are too rapid. They also demand more educational resources and influence quality of education. As there are currently 210 million students in China, the quality of education suffers, particularly at the college level, since most of Chinese manpower, physical and financial resources are spent on primary and secondary education. In terms of housing, transportation, health care, and natural resources, they are all intimately related to and influenced by increases in population. Consequently, the living standard would be difficult to raise if population increases are too rapid. Since 1971, population increases have been incorporated into 5-yearly and later yearly national economic plans in China. The large Chinese population is a major obstacle in raising the Chinese economic level, hence a well-planned population control program is essential.     

The problem of the aged population in China]

The situation regarding the population of China over age 60 is reviewed. From 1953 to 1980 the aged population doubled in size, with the population in urban areas growing at a faster rate than in rural areas. The author notes that declining birth and mortality rates and longer life expectancy will cause the absolute number of the aged to increase. For China, each percentage point increase in the aged means an increase of 10 million aged people. As the ratio of the aged to the rest of the society becomes increasingly larger, China will become an aged society. Tables on age distribution and life expectancy are included.     

The population and economic problems of South Asia]

South Asia, which includes Central South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Southwest Asia, had a comparatively higher population growth rate during the 30-year postwar period because of the overall backward economy and strong religious tradition. From the viewpoint of economics, the high population growth in South Asia has slowed down economic growth, increased the foreign trade imblance, and worsened poverty. Secondly, the rapid population growth has overburdened the area's educational system. The illiteracy rate has been going up continuously because of inadequate funds available for education. Thirdly, young labor is lacking in skills, training, and work experience, and related productivity has declined. Consequently, profits, the investment capability, and wages are also declining. The problems of the oversupply of labor, unemployment, and poverty have also become increasingly serious. In addition, the rapid population growth has intensified the pressure on the food supply and worsened the average nutrition of the general public. In recent years, countries in South Asia have been trying to deal with various problems caused by the rapid population growth. Measures have been taken to control the population growth, with a redistribution of the population to places outside cities, and export labor to oil-producing nations of the Middle East and Africa in order to solve the problem of the domestic labor surplus and earn more income for the foreign exchange. Countries in South Asia need more time and effort to achieve a balance between the population growth and economic development.     

The characteristics of Brazilian population and the population policy of the Brazilian government]

Current population trends in Brazil are described, with attention to ethnic composition, uneven spatial distribution, rapid growth in underdeveloped regions, and rural-urban migration. Consideration is also given to the government's population policy, including the dissemination of population information, the provision of free contraceptives, and the adoption of a target of a birth rate below 20 per 1,000 during the period 1981-2000.     

The effects of the age and structure of population on family change]

The age structure of a population is one basic factor of population research. It is not only affected by birth, death, immigration, and marriage, but it also reflected in changes of family size. The article analyzed it from two aspects: (1) the age structure of population acts on the size and structure of the family. The younger the age structure, the larger the family size. Otherwise, it is the opposite. According to the 1982 census, 35.4% of the population was 0-14 years in rural areas, and average family size was 4.6; but in urban areas 26.0% of the population was 0-14 years and family size was 3.9. The family was characterized as a nuclear family as industrialization in economic development increased and the population aged. In the 1982 census, 64.7% were nuclear family and 6% were aging population in China. Three- generation families (or more) have decreased dramatically. The change of family size and structure is affected by change of internal family age structure. The younger population (0-14 years) is dependent and 90% live with their parents. The adult population (15-59) years are more affected by marriage, birth and social economic action. Families are established in this age period and give much more effect to fertility. The aging population (over 60) years is facing changes. They appear to be a "Defect" family because the wife or husband has passed away. They change from independent to dependent. 78.3% population over 60 years were dependent on children or social welfare, only 21.7% were independent according to the survey in Beijing Changping County.     

Issues on the strategy of population development]

The author, who works at the Population Institute of Sichuan Financial University, deals with issues regarding the strategy of population development in China and applies the population theories of Marxist and Leninist thought. The importnace of establishing a strategy of population development, in order to create an "optimum situation" for China's population in the future, specifically within the next 50-100 years is stressed. In addition to emphasizing the value of family planning and the use of birth control as a means of achieving this optimum population, it is reommeneded that the central government as well as the local governments of each province set up a strategic plan spanning 10, 20, 50, or 100 years with the aim of creating such optimum situation. The Marxist term optimum population is used to refer to a situation in which an area's population is o foptimum quality, quantity, and geographical distribution. The Marxist principle of 2 types of production are noted: production of material and production of population. General as well as local strategies are of extreme importance for the development of productive strength in China now and in the next 50-100 years.     

Some problems on objective laws of population]

We must realize the existence and the importance of objective laws of population to understand the practical law. Population growth is determined by physiological and sociological factors. Furthermore, the sociological factor is determined by the production of the society. Until production reaches a certain level, the direction of population growth in both quantity and quality parallels production. After the population reaches a certain level, both the production and the quality of population growth continue to increase, but the quantity of the population growth decreases. Production requires both labor and material. Their relationship is expressed as the objective law of simple reproduction and expanded reproduction. The rapid development of technology and production in capitalistic societies results in unemployment. This "excess" population is a product of the capitalistic system. The rapid development of technology and production in a socialistic society results not in unemployment but in shorter working days and a higher living standard. The objective law of population growth is not transformed into a law of comparative population excess but into a unique socialistic population law--the formation of a highly civilized communistic working people.     

The historical development of China's population and its characteristics]

Population developments in China from 2100 B.C. up to 1949 are described. Fluctuations due to alternating periods of prosperity and decline are noted. In particular, the author discusses the rapid population increase that occurred from the mid-1700s to the modern era as a result of changes in taxation, the development of cultivated land, and stable economic and social conditions. Estimates are provided for all the dynasties and for selected reigns.     

Chinese population prospects projection]

Production of population and goods are closely related, mutually restricted, and should be included in our economic plan. Population projection is important in implementation and study of population policy. It is also the foundation of population regulations. Assuming 2 children per couple the population growth rate will be 1% in 1985 and .6% in the year 2000. Therefore, we cannot realize our goal of .5% population growth rate by 1985 and 0% by 2000. A 9% annual growth rate of national production will be required to reach our goal of $1000 U.S. per capita income by the year 2000, a goal that history proves is difficult to achieve. 2 children per couple, therefore, cannot meet our urgent requirements of modernization and educational improvement. A 2nd assumption of 90% single child families after 1 year would yield an average annual population growth rate of .38% in 1985 and .012% in the year 2000. This assumption leads to a rapid population decrease, too rapid for most to accept the change. The 3rd assumption is a gradual increase in single child families to 50% in 1985 and 90% in the year 2000. The resulting growth rates will be .5% in 1983 and near 0% in the year 2000. The projected population boom from 1987 to 1996 will be decreased to an annual increase of .4-.5%. This assumption provides time for people to understand and recognize the importance of the policy. It meets the requirements of modernization and will help improve China's educational and living standards. All 3 assumptions were based on 3 children per couple for minorities.     

On population of urbanization]

Unlike cities in capitalistic societies our socialistic cities are publically owned, and the relationship between rural and urban areas is mutually supportive and beneficial. 2 types of calculations are required for successful urbanization: an estimate of the total labor required in the city and an estimate of total agricultural products required to support the cities. Disregard for these 2 factors and overpopulated cities will result in unemployment, decreased agricultural production, inflation, and a decreased living standard. A balance between cities and country is important, and therefore population urbanization should be well planned. Capitalistic urbanization of population is based on the principle of private ownership and competition--from unplanned concentration of population in big cities to malignant expansion to the final decline of inner cities. Their governments are forced to redistribute the urban population. The same problem of overpopulated cities in underdeveloped countries results from stagnant agricultural production. We should learn from their mistakes in developing our cities. There are 2 types of socialistic urbanization. Russia has lopsidedly emphasized urban development and ignored agricultural production. Romania, on the other hand, emphasized both labor force distribution and agricultural production. Their numerous small cities near rural areas decrease the difference between big cities and the country. In the past we failed to follow our direction of urbanization--control the size of big cities, reasonably develop mid-sized cities, and actively develop small cities--because of the great difference in living standards between urban and rural areas and the lack of urbanization plans. The concept of industrialization must be accompanied by the concept of population urbanization.