A new terminal judgment method for family planning: indistinct comprehensive judgment]

The purpose of family planning (FP) program evaluation is to make comparisons between different work units and between the past and the present. The evaluation covers the impact of programs in economic, social, and demographic terms. If the impact is not quantified, it is difficult to distinguish differences in program performance. It is also hard to determine the relative standing of different organizations if each one has different merits and deficiencies. A mathematical model is used to quantify the performance of each unit in a FP program. 4 variables are used as the program indicators in the model: 1) percentage of child births following planning, 2) percentage of deferred marriages, 3) birth control prevalence, and 4) percentage of one child pledges. Indicators of social impact include 3 variables: 1) the attitude of FP workers, 2) the efforts of FP workers put in FP and 3) the results of program implementation. The indicator of economic impact is the investment for evasion of the birth of a child. Grades are assigned to indicators of social impact for each organization. The values of each variable is put in a matrix. Weights are given to each variable based on the emphasis of the program or a specific evaluation. The weights are determined through discussion with people involved in the program. A weighted average of all the above factors is the final grade of an organization's FP program performance.     

Thinking about several problems of the research of our family planning strategy]

On the basis of 1982 census data, it is estimated that from 1987-1997 13 million women will enter the age of marriage and child-bearing each year. The tasks of keeping the population size around 1.2 billion by the year 2000 is arduous. Great efforts have to be made to continue encouraging one child/couple, and to pursue the current plans and policies and maintain strict control over fertility. Keeping population growth in pace with economic growth, environment, ecological balance, availability of per capita resources, education programs, employment capability, health services, maternal and child care, social welfare and social security should be a component of the long term development strategy of the country. Family planning is a comprehensive program which involves long cycles and complicated factors, viewpoints of expediency in guiding policy and program formulation for short term benefits are inappropriate. The emphasis of family planning program strategy should be placed on the rural areas where the majority of population reside. Specifically, the major aspects of strategic thrusts should be the linkage between policy implementation and reception, between family planning publicity and changes of ideation on fertility; the integrated urban and rural program management relating to migration and differentiation of policy towards minority population and areas in different economic development stages. In order to achieve the above strategies, several measures are proposed. (1) strengthening family planning program and organization structure; (2) providing information on population and contraception; (3) establishing family planning program network for infiltration effects; (4) using government financing, taxation, loan, social welfare and penalty to regulate fertility motivations; (5) improving the system of target allocation and data reporting to facilitate program implementation; (6) strengthening population projection and policy research; (7) and strengthening training of family planning personnel to improve program efficiency.     

老年人医疗保健支出水平及其影响因素分析——慢性病高发背景下的老年人医疗保健制度改革

选取年内绝对和相对医疗支出两个指标,采用Tobit模型,检验影响老年人医疗保健支出的因素。研究发现慢性病、收入、居住地、社会保障对老年人医疗保健支出的影响突出,其中慢性病的影响尤为显著,在此基础上提出调整城乡医疗资源配置结构,健全社会保障政策,在医疗保健制度中增加预防性保险与服务的政策性建议。     

Presentation and establishment of a system of total progressive fertility rates and relevant models

Demographic studies necessarily rely on adequate and accurate statistical data. To take into consideration China's present situation of population control and planned birth practice, a system of total progressive fertility rate (TPFR) different from the parity progression ratio is established and its relevant model presented in order to make indicators used in analysing women's 1st marriage and fertility level reflect as closely as possible the actual situation. Here, TFR and TPFR, both used in analyzing fertility level, are compared so as to show that TPFR is a methodology more appropriate for use in the analysis of China's fertility. The model is based on the fact that women's vital events happen progressively from being born to completing childbearing. In composing the model, both women's age structure and parity structure are considered and the regularity of their changes with different years is defined. In China, the population development program has been brought into the overall social and economic development plan. Thus it is necessary to practice planned birth in order to make the population develop in a way which is in keeping with the social and economic development. Compared with other models or theories, it is more realistic to use the model discussed above in studies on China's population policy.     

Conceptualising and Measuring Social Cohesion in Africa: Towards a Perceptions-Based Index

Social cohesion is a key concept in development studies. Weak social cohesion is often related to slow economic growth and (violent) conflict. So far few attempts have been made to measure this complex concept in a systematic manner. This paper introduces an innovative method to measure national-level social cohesion based on survey data from 19 African countries. We distinguish three dimensions of social cohesion; i.e. the extent of perceived inequalities, the level of societal trust, and the strength of people’s adherence to their national identity. Importantly, our Social Cohesion Index (SCI) is based on individuals’ perceptions vis-à-vis these three different dimensions of social cohesion rather than certain macro-level ‘objective’ indicators such as GDP/capita or Gini-coefficients. We develop two social cohesion indices: a national average SCI and a Social Cohesion Index Variance-Adjusted (SCIVA); the latter one takes into account the level of variation across different ethnic groups within countries. The SCI and SCIVA are computed for and compared across nineteen African countries for the period 2005–2012 on the basis of Afrobarometer survey rounds 3, 4 and 5. We also investigate quantitatively the relationship between countries’ levels of social cohesion and the occurrence of a range of conflict events. As expected, we find that countries with low levels of social cohesion in a particular year according to our SCI are more likely to experience a range of different violent conflict events in the subsequent year.     

The social meaning of social indicators

While new modes of data processing have provided reams of data, there has been relatively less effort in seeking to comprehend the social meaning of results of empirical work. A set of previously developed indicators of urban social structure is here examined for its link to theory, and to the social structure of the city itself. The original indicators (size, social class, racial composition and community maturity) were empirically derived. In this paper, each is taken in turn, and explored with respect to several possible social meanings. Size, for example, is considered to be itself an indicator, and an imperfect one, for system complexity; percent non-white is seen to be itself an indicator for a slowdown in the mobility process, or a slower social metabolism. These and other results are suggestions, with illustrations, but not conclusive support, from other than the original data. While it is hoped that the theoretical suggestions may themselves be of interest, it is also hoped that approach itself can indicate the fertility and usefulness of going back to theory once empirical measures have been developed.     

Is Inequality a Latent Construct? An Assessment of Economic Inequality Indicators and Their Relation with Social Cohesion in Europe

In this article, we analyse the relation between different economic inequality indicators and social cohesion. Previous research usually narrows down economic inequality to income inequality, or distinguishes several types of economic inequality. Little attention has until now been given to how different aspects of economic inequality might be related to each other and can have an effect on social cohesion. This article analyses several indicators of economic inequality and makes a distinction between indicators measuring income inequality, poverty, economic strain and unequal distributions of wealth. Arguing that these indicators represent different aspects of inequality, we hypothesise that they cannot be reduced to one latent concept of inequality and have specific relations with social cohesion. In order to test this hypothesis, we conducted an exploratory factor analysis. This resulted in two different factors: one associated with economic hardship, and one associated with imbalances in market outcomes. This would imply that inequality indicators can be classified into two underlying concepts. Secondly, we related the factor scores of the two latent concepts to the social cohesion indicators via regression analyses. This paper focuses on European countries and uses pooled data from the European Social Survey (period 2006–2012), in combination with macro-level data drawn from the OECD, Eurostat and the World Bank. The results demonstrate that the strength of the link between inequality and citizens’ attitudes depends on the type of inequality indicator we analyse: only the factor economic deprivation can be significantly linked to social cohesion.     

Improving program evaluation with reciprocal indicators

Recent interest in social indicators of change has emphasized the unidimensional monitoring of social programs. Reciprocal indicators permit the recording of two-dimensional, or contrasting, trends within a selected system thereby providing efficient evaluation of program effectiveness. A religious indicator of congregation size, illustrates the differences in these two forms of indicators. Suggestions are made regarding application of reciprocal indicators and the policy implications associated with such use.     

The Ex-Ante Evaluation of Achieving Sustainable Development Goals

This paper describes the methodology and main results from an overall assessment on future achievement of sustainable development goals. The proposed approach consists of a model-based, looking forward composite sustainable development index—FEEM sustainability index—projected to the future. It represents a first experiment to reproduce the future dynamics of sustainable development indicators over time and worldwide and to assess future sustainability under different scenarios. The assessment presented here is relevant under different viewpoints. First, it has a very broad nature in terms of both geographical coverage and meaningfulness: it considers the multi-dimensional structure of sustainable development by combining relevant indicators belonging to economic, social and environmental pillars for the whole world. Second, the modelling framework to compute future trends of indicators relies upon a recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model. This is an ideal tool to look simultaneously at the development of many indicators, their potential interactions and trade-offs, and more in general to the consequences of economic development and/or policies aiming to increase performance in one or more indicators; it allows measuring the overall sustainability under alternative scenarios, across countries and over time. Finally, regarding the construction of the composite indicator, the application of fuzzy measures and Choquet integral increases substantially the model capability allowing taking into account the interactions that exist among the three main pillars of sustainability and the considered indicators.     

Multi-Dimensional Analysis of International Social Indicators – Education,Economy, Media and Demography

Using multi-dimensional analysis methods, it ispossible to uncover a structure representing therelationship between multiple internationaleducational, social and economic indicators. In thisstudy, we applied Smallest Space Analysis to datacollected by international agencies for 138 countriesand 20 indicators. A preliminary structure was foundand replicated for different data sets. Thisstructural interrelationship shows that these variousindicators are part of a larger field called welfare.This structure can be further expanded and refined tobe used as a tool for indicator selection.     

Evaluating the quality of life in Belgium

This paper deals with the evaluation of social welfare inequalities in order to establish a qualitative growth model for Flanders. As a base for the enquiry, quantitative, objective result indicators are chosen. The various quantified components are dealt with separately and different methods of aggregation are discussed. 32 indicators are selected on the basis of a specific definition of social welfare and taking account of the difficulties of collecting certain information. The indicators are aggregated in three different ways and in two stages: first per component for each region and secondly per region. The results show that major variations in the components are weakened by the aggregation and further that the different aggregation methods lead to only small differences. As a general conclusion one can speak of a regional homogeneity in Belgium.     

Oecd Social Indicators for 2001: a Critical Appraisal

The OECD social indicators for 2001 were critically reviewed by analysing their interrelationships across all OECD countries during the late 1990s. First, findings were provided covering the underlying structure of subsets of indicators by similarity in content as suggested by the OECD. Second, an analysis of the selected key indicators yielded five social dimensions, which were interpretedas conceptual constructs underlying the set of OECDsocial indicators at the level of the entire OECD area. Third, the relationships of each indicator withthese social dimensions were observed to aid choosing of appropriate indicators for making and evaluating social policies. Fourth, the OECDcountries were ranked according to their overall social welfare, as defined by the OECD social indicators, basedon the scores of the countries on the social dimensions. Fifth, similarities among the OECD countries were examined and it was found that the countries formed six bipolar country dimensions. The findings showed that an easily interpretable structure underlies the OECD social indicators. The paper clarified the use of the OECD social indicators for 2001 as a tool for planning and decision-making and for cross-national analyses of social policies.     

An Assessment of Social Welfare in Spain: Territorial Analysis Using a Synthetic Welfare Indicator

The aim of this paper is measure social welfare in Spanish provinces. To achieve this, we use the distance method P₂ to compose a synthetic indicator of welfare for 2007, the last year for which data are available. The index comprises information on different social indicators from various life domains and enables a classification of Spanish provinces, as well as a study of the impact of each individual indicator in order to determine provincial disparities in social welfare levels.     

Testing the Comparability of Different Types of Social Indicators Across Groups

The social indicator movement has realized a considerable increase in importance during the last 50 years. This happened not the least by the publications in the journal Social Indicators Research. Social indicators have been developed for many aspects of life. The scores on these indicators often are compared through time and across groups. An essential requirement for such research is that the measures used are comparable through time and across groups. The comparability through time is not such a big problem but the comparability of measures across groups is not so obvious. This requires harmonization of indicators based on objective variables and invariance testing for indicators based on subjective and objective variables. In this paper we discuss how the comparability of different types of social indicators based on subjective and objective variables can be tested using invariance testing. This is a relevant issue because the existing testing procedure is designed for only one type of social indicators and this test is not directly applicable on the other types of social indicators.     

Rates of imprisonment and psychiatric hospitalization in the United States

The relationship between penal and therapeutic custodial populations bears not only upon theories of social control, but also upon the validity of prison population rates as social indicators. Separate regression analyses of interstate variations in institutional populations for the year 1970, interstate variations in rats of change for the period 1967–73, and variation over time in nationally aggregated data for the period 1930–70 imply that the two custodial systems are essentially independent. The findings suggest that rates of imprisonment, when employed as social indicators, need not be adjusted statistically to account for contemporaneous variation in rates of mental hospitalization.     

A social change index-an objective means to discern and measure the relative current social condition of cities,towns, and their sub-communities

A social change index has been developed in response to a social planning need to have a means whereby the current social pathology of communities may be identified on an objective basis. The index is derived from a combination of social indicators which are reported by census tract by the State of Rhode Island on an annual basis. The index is particularly useful for the inter-decennial years because high mobility rates, particularly in central cities (up to 80% in some areas of these cities), cause census data to be unrepresentative in many instances for these years. In addition to serving as a means to identify social needs and problem areas, the index may be used for priority ranking of need for social program services, program monitoring, and program evaluation. The State of Rhode Island is expected to institute a Committee on Social Statistics among whose primary responsibilities will be to encourage state agencies to publish their social statistics by census tracts in their annual reports. It is presumed, consequently, that a larger number of current social indicators will be available to be included in the social change index and increase its accuracy.     

A Method of Assembling Cross-sectional Indicators into a Community Quality of Life

This study develops a new method of measuring quality of life at the local and state level. Further, it presents a methodology that combines heterogeneous indicators from different fields, such as economics, social, and health, into one total measurement. The technique shown can be used to compare one region with another, or compare one metro area with its own performance through time. The analysis shows which categories and indicators are ranked as the highest and serves as a measurement of economic development and potential targets for marketing plans. Every analyst interested in an aggregate, community measurement tool should be interested in the procedure and results.     

Measuring is Believing! Improving Conventional Indicators of Welfare State Development

Welfare effort (social spending as a percentage of GDP) has conventionally been the preferred measure for comparisons in space and time of the level of development of welfare states. However, a wide variety of other measuring systems are potentially available in this field, because there are different sources and different methods for calculating social spending, so a variety of indicators can be calculated, each of which best reflects a different aspect of social protection systems. This paper presents two innovations: first it proposes options other than those generally used to measure the relative development of welfare states. Secondly, it uses those new measurements to show that some widely accepted conclusions on the relative development of welfare states need to be reviewed.     

The developing program on social indicators at the U.S. Bureau of the Census

The Bureau of the Census Fiscal Year 1978 Budget provides funds for the first time for beginning a modest but coordinated effort in the field of social indicators and associated activities. The Bureau, buttressed by the advice and participation of other Government agencies, organizations and individuals outside of the Federal establishment long interested in social indicators, intends to:

1. consolidate and extend the development of the concepts and principles advanced previously relating to social indicators;
2. continue and expand the efforts and communication network established at the Office of Management and Budget, in connection with the preparation of the Social Indicators 1973 and 1976 reports;
3. systematically identify and assemble information sets and bits that are contained in censuses and surveys, household and establishment universes, administrative records, studies and projects capable of contributing to social indicator and social accounting development;
4. establish the basic analytic framework and an orderly set of detailed interrelated social accounts capable of being aggregated or disaggregated to appropriate levels of abstraction; and
5. prepare research and analytic studies and make available information generated from the social indicator and social accounting efforts at the Bureau, subject to limitations associated with confidentiality and copyright provisions pertaining to private sources of information.

The organizational structure to carry out this program consists of four primary work centers: information, social indicators, social accounts, and special studies. The structure is designed to provide for continuity of purpose, improve chances for individual achievement and group benefit, and to generate products that will contribute to a more accurate understanding of life experiences in the context of the interplay of social and economic forces and political and juridical institutions.     

Construct Validation and Application of a Common Measure of Social Cohesion in 33 European Countries

The aim of the paper is to assess the construct validation of a multidimensional measure of social cohesion which is well theoretically grounded and has an equivalent/comparable interpretation across all European countries. Up-to-now published research on social cohesion is deficient in either one or both of these important aspects. This paper attempts to cover this gap. The task is accomplished in two steps. In the first step, we conceptualize social cohesion, flowing mainly from Bernard and Chan’s definitions of social cohesion. Based on this theoretical framework we operationalize social cohesion and derive a set of intermediate indicators in the data. By return we verify whether these indicators empirically reflect/corroborate the multidimensional structure of the concept proposed by the theory. In the second step, we examine whether the obtained intermediate indicators of social cohesion form the same constructs across countries and whether they can yield a cross country equivalent measure of social cohesion. To test the validity of the theory we use multidimensional scaling and confirmatory factor analysis. Both models are able to verify the equivalence of the structural results between groups (i.e. countries). Confirmatory factor analysis produces further meaningful measures of these constructs. The analyses are based on the data from the 1999 European Values Study (EVS). The outcomes of the analyses reveal that, firstly, the existence of the multifaceted construct of social cohesion suggested by the theory has been corroborated by empirical analysis of the EVS data (i.e. social cohesion consists of components of formal and substantial relationships and political and socio-cultural domains). Secondly, the proposed constructs measuring social cohesion are equivalent across all analysed countries and thus allow the calculation of internationally comparable national scores of social cohesion. Application of the aggregate measures at the country level will illustrate the interest of the approach for further research.