转变企业统计观念 促进企业统计改革

政府统计工作是一个由上到下、进而由下到上的过程，在这一工作过程中，国家统计部门与基层统计单位处于相互联结的两极，其中在基层企业单位中企业占有极其重要的位置。企业的统计机构和统计人员肩负着向方方面面提供统计信息的任务，是政府统计工作的基石。回顾以往统计...     

Prisoner escort in Scotland: Costs, projection and performance under scrutiny

David Eyre is a journalist. He says that he is a little ignorant when it comes to statistics, as he thinks many people in the media are. Which is pretty surprising when you consider the number of stories that are based on statistics—everything from crime surveys to NHS waiting lists. Here he and Sheila Bird describe how they sought to address this problem in the context of prisoner escort in Scotland.     

关于我国民族统计几个基本理论问题的思考

我国实施西部大开发战略 ,在很大程度上是为了促进少数民族繁荣和推动民族自治地方社会经济的向前发展。这也是新世纪初期我国民族工作的首要任务。民族统计工作 ,作为民族工作的重要组成部分 ,肩负着为国家提供民族自治地方发展的数据信息、为提高少数民族人民生活水平献计献策、为党和政府制定正确的决策提供咨询意见的重任。新中国建立以来 ,我国政府一直进行着民族统计工作 ,改革开放以后 ,民族统计工作更是逐年得到加强。国家民委专门设立统计处 ,领导全国的民族统计工作 ,取得了很大的成绩 ,为国家民族工作做出了应有的贡献。但从目前…     

Some Remarks on Statistical Education

A definition of the subject of statistics is given, and the difference between the chalkboard world of the teacher of statistics and the real world of the experimenter is stressed. An overemphasis on significance testing, hypothesis testing, and decision procedures has led to a de-emphasis of statistical design. The teaching of statistical design theory, statistics teaching in a changing world, the importance of model building, and different approaches to teaching statistics are discussed. Some published materials developed to meet teaching needs and a new type of statistics course are described. Information about special issues in statistical education (teaching and consulting) is presented.     

Experimental design and systematic monitoring

David Finney has enjoyed a long and distinguished career, both as an academic statistician and in various areas of agricultural research and medical statistics. He tells Helen Joyce about his career, and shares his views on the state of statistics today.     

目光深远的统计学大师 ——张尧庭先生逝世五周年纪念

 张尧庭先生是一位目光深远的统计学大师。本文认为他生前提出的下述观点即“统计学的发展全靠数学与实际问题的推动”,“为反映整体的、动态的东西统计学必须要有新突破”,以及“促进数理统计和经济统计的学术交流”等,在今天仍然具有现实意义,可为我们现时的统计学教学与研究的深入发展提供有益参考。     

美国国际贸易服务BOP统计研究

In the recent 20 years, the world service trade is developing at a fantastic speed, with its trade value taking more and more shares from the whole value of the global trade value. In this situation, service trade becomes a focus of the countries all over the world. And the developed countries, esp. USA, have changed their attention towards service trade from the goods trade and strengthened the statistics of the international service trade. This article, starting from the U.S. relevant definitions of the statistics on service, made a deep research on its classification, statistics facilities, statistical process and methodologies on “Selective service trade”, “Specialized service trade” and “Transportation”. In the second part, taking the development of world statistics on service trade as preference, the article made a comment on the US service trade statistics. In the rear part, as a conclusion of this article, what our country can learn from US is talked about.     

Cousins: Charles Darwin, Sir Francis Galton and the birth of eugenics

Sir Francis Galton, scientist, African Explorer and statistician, was a key figure in statistical history. He was the man who devised the statistical concepts of regression and correlation. He was also Charles Darwin's cousin. And, inspired by his reading of Darwin, he was the founder of eugenics: the "science" of improving the human race through selective breeding. Nicholas Gillham tells of a darker side to statistics and heredity.     

A Bayesian approach to sequential analysis in post‐licensure vaccine safety surveillance

With rapid development of computing technology, Bayesian statistics have increasingly gained more attention in various areas of public health. However, the full potential of Bayesian sequential methods applied to vaccine safety surveillance has not yet been realized, despite acknowledged practical benefits and philosophical advantages of Bayesian statistics. In this paper, we describe how sequential analysis can be performed in a Bayesian paradigm in the field of vaccine safety. We compared the performance of the frequentist sequential method, specifically, Maximized Sequential Probability Ratio Test (MaxSPRT), and a Bayesian sequential method using simulations and a real world vaccine safety example. The performance is evaluated using three metrics: false positive rate, false negative rate, and average earliest time to signal. Depending on the background rate of adverse events, the Bayesian sequential method could significantly improve the false negative rate and decrease the earliest time to signal. We consider the proposed Bayesian sequential approach to be a promising alternative for vaccine safety surveillance.     

Interesting times for official statistics

The Statistics Commission was set up in 2000 to monitor the production of official statistics in the UK. Professor David Rhind was one of the founding Commissioners, and has been Chairman since 2003. He tells Helen Joyce that he hasn't had a quiet moment since.     

Bayes and MCMC for Undergraduates

Students of statistics should be taught the ideas and methods that are widely used in practice and that will help them understand the world of statistics. Today, this means teaching them about Bayesian methods. In this article, I present ideas on teaching an undergraduate Bayesian course that uses Markov chain Monte Carlo and that can be a second course or, for strong students, a first course in statistics.     

Changing times in pharmaceutical statistics: 2000‐2020

In a previous paper we considered how pharmaceutical statistics had changed between 1980 and 2000. In this paper we go on to consider some of the likely influences and changes in the world of pharmaceutical statistics over the next twenty years. Statistical research by pharmaceutical companies is supported, although its direct value in boosting company profits is challenged. The duality between fraud and conflict of interest is explored, particularly with regard to data and safety monitoring boards. Political correctness within clinical trials and (allegedly) better patient‐oriented outcomes is questioned and the whole notion of intention‐to‐treat and per‐protocol analyses is rejected in favour of pragmatic trials and explanatory trials. The dominance of SAS software within the industry is explored and the possibility for change considered. Finally, whilst the future of pharmaceutical companies is not addressed, the impact of future mergers, collaborations and take‐overs between clinical research organizations is considered. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

国家统计机构比较研究

 内容提要：本研究报告在广泛收集和研究国外相关资料的基础上，介绍了国家统计机构的一般组织结构、官方统计基本原则在各国的实施和经验。在此基础上，剖析了官方统计10项基本原则在我国统计工作中的实施情况，通过对照、检查，指出我国统计工作在很多方面已经达到国际通行的官方统计基本原则要求，在一些方面甚至处于国际领先水平。但是，在某些方面与国际标准相比，仍有一定的差距，需要进一步改进、提高。为此，提出了完善我国统计工作的初步建议。     

Distribution‐free statistical intervals via ranked‐set sampling

The author shows how to construct distribution‐free statistical intervals from ranked‐set sampling. He considers the cases of confidence, tolerance, and prediction intervals. He shows how to compute their coverage probabilities and he compares their performance to that of intervals based on simple random sampling. He finds that the ranked‐set sampling‐based intervals are at least as good as their classical counterpart in most settings of interest, although the nature of the advantage depends on the type of interval considered.     

Statistics and risk in the nuclear industry

Nuclear power, after a decade of being ignored, is again becoming an option—perhaps the preferred option—for future power generation in Britain. Can it be done safely? As importantly, can existing plant be decommissioned safely? Granville Tunnicliffe Wilson has worked on a series of statistical projects with the nuclear industry, stretching over a period of 30 years. He looks at the part statistics has played in past safety assurance and the questions that are now being asked about its role. He also reveals past cases where operators failed to follow valid statistical indicators of plant failure.     

On consistent testing for serial correlation in seasonal time series models

The author considers serial correlation testing in seasonal time series models. He proposes a test statistic based on a spectral approach. Many tests of this type rely on kernel-based spectral density estimators that assign larger weights to low order lags than to high ones. Under seasonality, however, large autocorrelations may occur at seasonal lags that classical kernel estimators cannot take into account. The author thus proposes a test statistic that relies on the spectral density estimator of Shin (2004), whose weighting scheme is more adapted to this context. The distribution of his test statistic is derived under the null hypothesis and he studies its behaviour under fixed and local alternatives. He establishes the consistency of the test under a general fixed alternative. He also makes recommendations for the choice of the smoothing parameters. His simulation results suggest that his test is more powerful against seasonality than alternative procedures based on classical weighting schemes. He illustrates his procedure with monthly statistics on employment among young Americans.     

中国应建立更为完善的宏观经济统计体系

一、国际上的四个宏观经济统计规范１９９３年联合国等国际组织全面修订了《国民经济核算体系》（即１９９３年ＳＮＡ）以后，中国统计学界出现了新一轮研究国民经济核算的热潮。这一轮对国民经济核算体系的研究，热点已经不再是核算模式的选择，也不是一般核算理论与方法...     

官方统计之我见

 随着国家教委本科专业目录的出台，中国社会经济统计学界反响很大。振动之余，平下心来。还是有许多东西值得认真反思的。这里之所以用了反思，意在从主观入手，剖析自我。     

Seeking Philosophy Journals on the Web

Abstract

Allan Scherlen introduces us to the elusive world of free, online, peer-reviewed journals in philosophy. He argues that free e-journals, although often well respected among specialists within the field, can paradoxically be obscured from library researchers because of poor representation in established indexes and directories. He evaluates three such e-journals in terms of their history, scope, design, navigation, and archiving. Serials Review 2002; 28:225–231.