Discordancy Tests Based on the Likelihood Ratio for the Bipolar Watson Distribution on the Hypersphere

As the Watson distribution is frequently used for modeling axial data, it is important to investigate the existence of possible outliers in samples from this distribution. Then, we develop for the bipolar Watson distribution defined on the hypersphere, some tests of discordancy of an outlier or several outliers en bloc based on the likelihood ratio, supposing an alternative model of contamination of slippage type. We evaluate the performance of these tests of discordancy of an outlier and we also compare some tests of discordancy of an outlier available for this distribution.     

Robust multivariate mixture regression models with incomplete data

Multivariate mixture regression models can be used to investigate the relationships between two or more response variables and a set of predictor variables by taking into consideration unobserved population heterogeneity. It is common to take multivariate normal distributions as mixing components, but this mixing model is sensitive to heavy-tailed errors and outliers. Although normal mixture models can approximate any distribution in principle, the number of components needed to account for heavy-tailed distributions can be very large. Mixture regression models based on the multivariate t distributions can be considered as a robust alternative approach. Missing data are inevitable in many situations and parameter estimates could be biased if the missing values are not handled properly. In this paper, we propose a multivariate t mixture regression model with missing information to model heterogeneity in regression function in the presence of outliers and missing values. Along with the robust parameter estimation, our proposed method can be used for (i) visualization of the partial correlation between response variables across latent classes and heterogeneous regressions, and (ii) outlier detection and robust clustering even under the presence of missing values. We also propose a multivariate t mixture regression model using MM-estimation with missing information that is robust to high-leverage outliers. The proposed methodologies are illustrated through simulation studies and real data analysis.     

A note on determining the number of outliers in an exponential sample by least squares procedure

In this paper, we suggest a least squares procedure for the determination of the number of upper outliers in an exponential sample by minimizing sample mean squared error. Moreover, the method can reduce the masking or “swamping” effects. In addition, we have also found that the least squares procedure is easy and simple to compute than test test procedure T _k suggested by Zhang (1998) for determining the number of upper outliers, since Zhang (1998) need to use the complicated null distribution of T _k . Moreover, we give three practical examples and a simulated example to illustrate the procedures. Further, simulation studies are given to show the advantages of the proposed method. Finally, the proposed least squares procedure can also determine the number of upper outliers in other continuous univariate distributions (for example, Pareto, Gumbel, Weibull, etc.). Received: May 10, 1999; revised version: June 5, 2000     

Monitoring multivariate simple linear profiles using robust estimators

Brief Abstract

This article focuses on estimation of multivariate simple linear profiles. While outliers may hamper the expected performance of the ordinary regression estimators, this study resorts to robust estimators as the remedy of the estimation problem in presence of contaminated observations. More specifically, three robust estimators M, S and MM are employed. Extensive simulation runs show that in the absence of outliers or for small amount of contamination, the robust methods perform as well as the classical least square method, while for medium and large amounts of contamination the proposed estimators perform considerably better than classical method.     

Estimators Based on Data‐Driven Generalized Weighted Cramér‐von Mises Distances under Censoring – with Applications to Mixture Models

Abstract. Estimators based on data‐driven generalized weighted Cramér‐von Mises distances are defined for data that are subject to a possible right censorship. The function used to measure the distance between the data, summarized by the Kaplan–Meier estimator, and the target model is allowed to depend on the sample size and, for example, on the number of censored items. It is shown that the estimators are consistent and asymptotically multivariate normal for every p dimensional parametric family fulfiling some mild regularity conditions. The results are applied to finite mixtures. Simulation results for finite mixtures indicate that the estimators are useful for moderate sample sizes. Furthermore, the simulation results reveal the usefulness of sample size dependent and censoring sensitive distance functions for moderate sample sizes. Moreover, the estimators for the mixing proportion seem to be fairly robust against a ‘symmetric’ contamination model even when censoring is present.     

On the distribution of the correlation coefficient when sampling from a mixture of two bivariate normal densities: Robustness and the effect of outliers

The distribution of the sample correlation coefficient is derived when the population is a mixture of two bivariate normal distributions with zero mean but different covariances and mixing proportions 1 - λ and λ respectively; λ will be called the proportion of contamination. The test of ρ = 0 based on Student's t, Fisher's z, arcsine, or Ruben's transformation is shown numerically to be nonrobust when λ, the proportion of contamination, lies between 0.05 and 0.50 and the contaminated population has 9 times the variance of the standard (bivariate normal) population. These tests are also sensitive to the presence of outliers.     

Some small-sample properties of some recently proposed multivariate outlier detection techniques

Recently, several new robust multivariate estimators of location and scatter have been proposed that provide new and improved methods for detecting multivariate outliers. But for small sample sizes, there are no results on how these new multivariate outlier detection techniques compare in terms of p _n , their outside rate per observation (the expected proportion of points declared outliers) under normality. And there are no results comparing their ability to detect truly unusual points based on the model that generated the data. Moreover, there are no results comparing these methods to two fairly new techniques that do not rely on some robust covariance matrix. It is found that for an approach based on the orthogonal Gnanadesikan–Kettenring estimator, p _n can be very unsatisfactory with small sample sizes, but a simple modification gives much more satisfactory results. Similar problems were found when using the median ball algorithm, but a modification proved to be unsatisfactory. The translated-biweights (TBS) estimator generally performs well with a sample size of n≥20 and when dealing with p-variate data where p≤5. But with p=8 it can be unsatisfactory, even with n=200. A projection method as well the minimum generalized variance method generally perform best, but with p≤5 conditions where the TBS method is preferable are described. In terms of detecting truly unusual points, the methods can differ substantially depending on where the outliers happen to be, the number of outliers present, and the correlations among the variables.     

Flexible mixture modeling via the multivariate t distribution with?the?Box-Cox transformation: an?alternative to?the?skew-t distribution

Cluster analysis is the automated search for groups of homogeneous observations in a data set. A popular modeling approach for clustering is based on finite normal mixture models, which assume that each cluster is modeled as a multivariate normal distribution. However, the normality assumption that each component is symmetric is often unrealistic. Furthermore, normal mixture models are not robust against outliers; they often require extra components for modeling outliers and/or give a poor representation of the data. To address these issues, we propose a new class of distributions, multivariate t distributions with the Box-Cox transformation, for mixture modeling. This class of distributions generalizes the normal distribution with the more heavy-tailed t distribution, and introduces skewness via the Box-Cox transformation. As a result, this provides a unified framework to simultaneously handle outlier identification and data transformation, two interrelated issues. We describe an Expectation-Maximization algorithm for parameter estimation along with transformation selection. We demonstrate the proposed methodology with three real data sets and simulation studies. Compared with a wealth of approaches including the skew-t mixture model, the proposed t mixture model with the Box-Cox transformation performs favorably in terms of accuracy in the assignment of observations, robustness against model misspecification, and selection of the number of components.     

Procedure to identify outliers through cumulative distribution of extremes in a Gamma response model

This work aimed at proposing a procedure based on the cumulative distribution of maximums and minimums to identify outliers in generalized Gamma-response models. In order to validate such method, we used simulations scenarios defined by the combination of different samples, contamination rate and distributions with different degrees of asymmetry. In this context, probabilities related to errors in classification and accuracy were obtained by carrying by Monte Carlo simulations. Using cumulative distribution of extremes to identify outliers in a Gamma-response model is recommended, since it is not likely to present errors and was highly accurate in all assessed scenarios.     

Inference in multivariate linear regression models with elliptically distributed errors

In this study we investigate the problem of estimation and testing of hypotheses in multivariate linear regression models when the errors involved are assumed to be non-normally distributed. We consider the class of heavy-tailed distributions for this purpose. Although our method is applicable for any distribution in this class, we take the multivariate t-distribution for illustration. This distribution has applications in many fields of applied research such as Economics, Business, and Finance. For estimation purpose, we use the modified maximum likelihood method in order to get the so-called modified maximum likelihood estimates that are obtained in a closed form. We show that these estimates are substantially more efficient than least-square estimates. They are also found to be robust to reasonable deviations from the assumed distribution and also many data anomalies such as the presence of outliers in the sample, etc. We further provide test statistics for testing the relevant hypothesis regarding the regression coefficients.     

Summary measurements and screening in clinical trials with replicate observations

Repeating measurements of efficacy variables in clinical trials may be desirable when the measurement may be affected by ambient conditions. When such measurements are repeated at baseline and at the end of therapy, statistical questions relate to: (1) the best summary measurement to use for a subject when there is a possibility that some observations are contaminated and have increased variances; and (2) the effect of screening procedures which exclude outliers based on within- and between-subject contamination tests. We study these issues in two stages, each using a different set of models. The first stage deals only with the choice of the summary measure. The simulation results show that in some cases of contamination, the power achieved by the tests based on the median exceeds that achieved by the tests based on the mean of the replicates. However, even when we use the median, there are cases when contamination leads to a considerable loss in power. The combined issue of the best summary measurement and the effect of screening is studied in the second stage. The tests use either the observed data or the data after screening for outliers. The simulation results demonstrate that the power depends on the screening procedure as well as on the test statistic used in the study. We found that for the extent and magnitude of contamination considered, within-subject screening has a minimal effect on the power of the tests when there are at least three replicates; as a result, we found no advantage in the use of screening procedures for within-subject contamination. On the other hand, the use of a between-subject screening for outliers increases the power of the test procedures. However, even with the use of screening procedures, heterogeneity of variances can greatly reduce the power of the study.     

Investigation of the performance of trimmed estimators of life time distributions with censoring

For the lifetime (or negative) exponential distribution, the trimmed likelihood estimator has been shown to be explicit in the form of a β‐trimmed mean which is representable as an estimating functional that is both weakly continuous and Fréchet differentiable and hence qualitatively robust at the parametric model. It also has high efficiency at the model. The robustness is in contrast to the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) involving the usual mean which is not robust to contamination in the upper tail of the distribution. When there is known right censoring, it may be perceived that the MLE which is the most asymptotically efficient estimator may be protected from the effects of ‘outliers’ due to censoring. We demonstrate that this is not the case generally, and in fact, based on the functional form of the estimators, suggest a hybrid defined estimator that incorporates the best features of both the MLE and the β‐trimmed mean. Additionally, we study the pure trimmed likelihood estimator for censored data and show that it can be easily calculated and that the censored observations are not always trimmed. The different trimmed estimators are compared by a modest simulation study.     

A consistent simulation-based estimator in generalized linear mixed models

We propose a strongly root-n consistent simulation-based estimator for the generalized linear mixed models. This estimator is constructed based on the first two marginal moments of the response variables, and it allows the random effects to have any parametric distribution (not necessarily normal). Consistency and asymptotic normality for the proposed estimator are derived under fairly general regularity conditions. We also demonstrate that this estimator has a bounded influence function and that it is robust against data outliers. A bias correction technique is proposed to reduce the finite sample bias in the estimation of variance components. The methodology is illustrated through an application to the famed seizure count data and some simulation studies.     

Maximum studentized score tests for the detection of outliers in time series regression models

Efficient score tests exist among others, for testing the presence of additive and/or innovative outliers that are the result of the shifted mean of the error process under the regression model. A sample influence function of autocorrelation-based diagnostic technique also exists for the detection of outliers that are the result of the shifted autocorrelations. The later diagnostic technique is however not useful if the outlying observation does not affect the autocorrelation structure but is generated due to an inflation in the variance of the error process under the regression model. In this paper, we develop a unified maximum studentized type test which is applicable for testing the additive and innovative outliers as well as variance shifted outliers that may or may not affect the autocorrelation structure of the outlier free time series observations. Since the computation of the p-values for the maximum studentized type test is not easy in general, we propose a Satterthwaite type approximation based on suitable doubly non-central F-distributions for finding such p-values [F.E. Satterthwaite, An approximate distribution of estimates of variance components, Biometrics 2 (1946), pp. 110–114]. The approximations are evaluated through a simulation study, for example, for the detection of additive and innovative outliers as well as variance shifted outliers that do not affect the autocorrelation structure of the outlier free time series observations. Some simulation results on model misspecification effects on outlier detection are also provided.     

Moments of Order Statistics from Weibull Distribution in the Presence of Multiple Outliers

In this article, we derive exact expressions for the single and product moments of order statistics from Weibull distribution under the contamination model. We assume that X₁, X₂, …, X_{n ? p} are independent with density function f(x) while the remaining, p observations (outliers) X_{n ? p + 1}, …, X_n are independent with density function arises from some modified version of f(x), which is called g(x), in which the location and/or scale parameters have been shifted in value. Next, we investigate the effect of the outliers on the BLUE of the scale parameter. Finally, we deduce some special cases.     

Likelihood ratio tests for testing for multiple contaminants in the shocks and labelled slippage models

In the literature related to the study of lifelengths of experimental units, little attention has been paid to the models where shocks to the units generate outliers. In the present article, we consider a situation where n experimental units under investigation receive shocks at several time points. The parameter values of the lifelength distribution may change due to each shock, resulting in the generation of outliers. We derive the likelihood ratio test statistic to investigate if the shocks have significantly altered the parameter values. We also derive a likelihood ratio test under the labelled slippage alternative with multiple contaminations. Monte Carlo studies have been carried out to investigate the power of the proposed test statistics.     

On order statistics from non-identical right-truncated exponential random variables and some applications

By considering order statistics arising from n independent non-identically distributed right-truncated exponential random variables, we derive in this paper several recurrence relations for the single and the product moments of order statistics. These recurrence relations are simple in nature and could be used systematically in order to compute all the single and the product moments of order statistics for all sample sizes in a simple recursive manner. The results for order statistics from a multiple-outlier model (with a slippage of p observations) from a right-truncated exponential population are deduced as special cases. These results will be useful in assessing robustness properties of any linear estimator of the unknown parameter of the right-truncated exponential distribution, in the presence of one or more outliers in the sample. These results generalize those for the order statistics arising from an i.i.d. sample from a right-truncated exponential population established by Joshi (1978, 1982).     

Comparing the fisher information in record values and iid observations

In a number of experiments, such as destructive stress testings, sampling is conducted sequentially. In such experiments, in which destruction of sample units may be expensive, one may wonder if it is more economical to observe n lower record values than to observe n iid observations from the original distribution. In this paper, we establish some general results concerning the comparison of the amount of the Fisher information contained in n record values and inter-record times with that contained in n iid observations from the original distribution. Some specific common distributions are classified according to this criterion.     

Maximum likelihood estimation in the presence of outiliers

This paper deals with the maximum likelihood estimation of parameters when the sample (x₁…x_n ) may heve k spuriously generated observations from another distribution, say G≠F, where F is the distribution of the target population. If G is stochastically larger than F, then these k observations may give rise to k extreme observations or ‘outliers’. This situation is often described by a so-called ‘k-outlier model’ in which in addition to the parameters involved in F and G, the set ν={ν₁,…,ν_k} of indices, for which x_νj , j=1,…,k, come from G, is also unknow.     

Robust explicit estimation of the two-parameter Birnbaum–Saunders distribution

The two-parameter Birnbaum–Saunders distribution is widely applicable to model failure times of fatiguing materials. Its maximum-likelihood estimators (MLEs) are very sensitive to outliers and also have no closed-form expressions. This motivates us to develop some alternative estimators. In this paper, we develop two robust estimators, which are also explicit functions of sample observations and are thus easy to compute. We derive their breakdown points and carry out extensive Monte Carlo simulation experiments to compare the performance of all the estimators under consideration. It has been observed from the simulation results that the proposed estimators outperform in a manner that is approximately comparable with the MLEs, whereas they are far superior in the presence of data contamination that often occurs in practical situations. A simple bias-reduction technique is presented to reduce the bias of the recommended estimators. Finally, the practical application of the developed procedures is illustrated with a real-data example.