Sequential Monitoring for Changes in Models with a Polynomial Trend

This article considers, for the first time, sequential monitoring procedures that detect possible parameter changes in the polynomial trend models. A new class of sequential monitoring procedures that based on generalized fluctuation testing principle is proposed. The asymptotic null distributions and the consistency of the proposed tests are derived and their asymptotic critical values are tabulated. The methods are illustrated and compared in a small simulation study. In particular, we apply the proposed tests to investigate the Chinese commodity retail sales and consumer price indexes. Simulations and applications support our method.     

Detecting parameter shift in garch models

This paper applies recent theories of testing for parameter constancy to the conditional variance in a GARCH model. The supremum Lagrange multiplier test for conditional Gaussian GARCH models and its robustified variants are discussed. The asymptotic null distribution of the test statistics are derived from the weak convergence of the scores, and the critical values from the hitting probability of squared Bessel process.

Monte Carlo studies on the finite sample size and power performance of the supremum LM tests are conducted. Applications of these tests to S&P 500 indicate that the hypothesis of stable conditional variance parameters can be rejected.     

Detecting parameter shift in garch models

This paper applies recent theories of testing for parameter constancy to the conditional variance in a GARCH model. The supremum Lagrange multiplier test for conditional Gaussian GARCH models and its robustified variants are discussed. The asymptotic null distribution of the test statistics are derived from the weak convergence of the scores, and the critical values from the hitting probability of squared Bessel process.

Monte Carlo studies on the finite sample size and power performance of the supremum LM tests are conducted. Applications of these tests to S&P 500 indicate that the hypothesis of stable conditional variance parameters can be rejected.     

Asymptotocally nonparametric tests with censored paired data

A class of asymptotically nonparametric test with contains a test proposed by Wei(1980), is considered for testing the equality of two continuous distribution funcitons when paired observations are subject to arbitrary right censorship. It is shown that under the null hypothesis each test statistic converges in distribution to the standard normal random variable. Furthermore. the Monte Carlo simulation results indicate that some tests in this class are more powerful than Wei's test. A generalization to incomplete censored paired data is also included.     

Average Most Powerful Tests for a Segmented Regression

To improve the goodness of fit between a regression model and observations, the model can be complicated; however, that can reduce the statistical power when the complication does not lead significantly to an improved model. In the context of two-phase (segmented) logistic regressions, the model evaluation needs to include testing for simple (one-phase) versus two-phase logistic regression models. In this article, we propose and examine a class of likelihood ratio type tests for detecting a change in logistic regression parameters that splits the model into two-phases. We show that the proposed tests, based on Shiryayev–Roberts type statistics, are on average the most powerful. The article argues in favor of a new approach for fixing Type I errors of tests when the parameters of null hypotheses are unknown. Although the suggested approach is partly based on Bayes–Factor-type testing procedures, the classical significance levels of the proposed tests are under control. We demonstrate applications of the average most powerful tests to an epidemiologic study entitled “Time to pregnancy and multiple births.”     

Change-point analysis with bathtub shape for the exponential distribution

Likelihood ratio type test statistic and Schwarz information criterion statistics are proposed for detecting possible bathtub-shaped changes in the parameter in a sequence of exponential distributions. The asymptotic distribution of likelihood ratio type statistic under the null hypothesis and the testing procedure based on Schwarz information criterion are derived. Numerical critical values and powers of two methods are tabulated for certain selected values of the parameters. The tests are applied to detect the change points for the predator data and Stanford heart transplant data.     

The two-sample problem with multivariate censored data: a new rank test family

A new rank test family is proposed to test the equality of two multivariate failure times distributions with censored observations. The tests are very simple: they are based on a transformation of the multivariate rank vectors to a univariate rank score and the resulting statistics belong to the familiar class of the weighted logrank test statistics. The new procedure is also applicable to multivariate observations in general, such as repeated measures, some of which may be missing. To investigate the performance of the proposed tests, a simulation study was conducted with bivariate exponential models for various censoring rates. The size and power of these tests against Lehmann alternatives were compared to the size and power of two other tests (Wei and Lachin, 1984 and Wei and Knuiman, 1987). In all simulations the new procedures provide a relatively good power and an accurate control over the size of the test. A real example from the National Cooperative Gallstone Study is given     

Effect of a new selection procedure on adaptive estimation

Adaptive estimation of parameters of some failure time distributionsis considered. A new procedure named the F-procedure has beendeveloped for selecting an appropriate model out of two possible models by Pandey et.al. (1991). Applying this F-procedure adaptive estimatorsof parameters of exponential, Wei bull, inverse Gaussian (IG) and Wald failure time distributions have been proposed in this paper. Comparison of these estimators has been undertaken with MLE's of the respective parameters and with some previous adaptiveestimators by simulation of samples using the Monte Carlo method.Adaptive estimation of parameters of some failure time distributions is considered. A new procedure named the F-procedure has been developedfor selecting an appropriate model out of two possible models by Pandey et.al. (1991). Applying this F-procedure adaptive estimators of parameters of exponential, Wei bull, inverse Gaussian (IG) and Wald failure time distributions have been proposed in this paper. Comparison of these estimators has been undertaken with MLE's of the respective parameters and with some previous adaptive estimators by simulation of samples using the Monte Carlo method.     

Change Detection in INAR(p) Processes Against Various Alternative Hypotheses

Change in the coefficients or the mean of the innovation of an INAR(p) process is a sign of disturbance that is important to detect. The proposed methods can test for change in any one of these quantities separately, or in any collection of them. They make both one-sided and two-sided tests possible, furthermore, they can be used to test against the “epidemic” alternative. The tests are based on a CUSUM process using CLS estimators of the parameters. Under the one-sided and two-sided alternatives, consistency of the tests is proved and the properties of the change-point estimator are also explored.     

Modified maximum likelihood and modified moment estimators for the three-parameter weibull distribution

This article is concerned with modifications of both maximum likelihood and moment estimators for parameters of the three-parameter Wei bull distribution. Modifications presented here are basically the same as those previously proposed by the authors (1980, 1981, 1982) in connection with the lognormal and the gamma distributions. Computer programs were prepared for the practical application of these estimators and an illustrative example is included. Results of a simulation study provide insight into the sampling behavior of the new estimators and include comparisons with the traditional moment and maximum likelihood estimators. For some combinations of parameter values, some of the modified estimators considered here enjoy advantages over both moment and maximum likelihood estimators with respect to bias, variance, and/or ease of calculation.     

Change-Point Tests for the Error Distribution in Non-parametric Regression

Abstract.  Several testing procedures are proposed that can detect change-points in the error distribution of non-parametric regression models. Different settings are considered where the change-point either occurs at some time point or at some value of the covariate. Fixed as well as random covariates are considered. Weak convergence of the suggested difference of sequential empirical processes based on non-parametrically estimated residuals to a Gaussian process is proved under the null hypothesis of no change-point. In the case of testing for a change in the error distribution that occurs with increasing time in a model with random covariates the test statistic is asymptotically distribution free and the asymptotic quantiles can be used for the test. This special test statistic can also detect a change in the regression function. In all other cases the asymptotic distribution depends on unknown features of the data-generating process and a bootstrap procedure is proposed in these cases. The small sample performances of the proposed tests are investigated by means of a simulation study and the tests are applied to a data example.     

On Testing Dependence between Time to Failure and Cause of Failure via Conditional Probabilities

Abstract.  Dependence structures between the failure time and the cause of failure are expressed in terms of the monotonicity properties of the conditional probabilities involving the cause of failure and the failure time. These properties of the conditional probabilities are used for testing four types of departures from the independence of the failure time and the cause of failure and tests based on U -statistics are proposed. In the process, a concept of concordance and discordance between a continuous and a binary variable is introduced to propose a statistical test. The proposed tests are applied to two illustrative applications.     

Non-parametric testing for the number of change points in a sequence of independent random variables

A non-parametric procedure is derived for testing for the number of change points in a sequence of independent continuously distributed variables when there is no prior information available. The procedure is based on the Kruskal–Wallis test, which is maximized as a function of all possible places of the change points. The procedure consists of a sequence of non-parametric tests of nested hypotheses corresponding to a decreasing number of change points. The properties of this procedure are analyzed by Monte Carlo methods and compared to a parametric procedure for the case that the variables are exponentially distributed. The critical values are given for sample sizes up to 200.     

Non parametric hypothesis tests for comparing reliability functions

In reliability and related disciplines, comparing reliability functions of two (or more) aging processes is a crucial step in the process of determining reliability and understanding an aging process. The aim of this paper is to propose a non parametric statistical methodology to compare two populations based on their mean residual life function and expected inactivity time function. We introduce some novel hypothesis testing procedures that involve both Cramér–von Mises- and Kolmogorov–Smirnov-type test statistics and their decision rules are constructed based on the asymptotic distributions of these test statistics and bootstrapping method. We study the practical behavior of the proposed testing procedures extensively through simulations. The results reveal that the proposed hypothesis testing procedures perform efficiently in identifying small and large differences. Two real-life examples are discussed to demonstrate the practical utility of the tests.     

On the least favorable configuration in mult1hgmial selection problems

The Modulated Power Law process (MPLP) has been recently used to analyse repairable mechanical units whose failure pattern incorporates both renewal-type behaviour and time trend. In this paper, a Bayes approach is used to develop significance tests for testing for a reduction of the MPLP to simpler models, namely the Gamma Renewal and the Power Law processes, which are special cases of the MPLP model. Furthermore, significance tests to compare the effect of the repair actions on the future reliability or the time trend in two independent MPLP samples are proposed. Large simulation studies have been carried out, both to measure the exact size of the proposed tests and to investigate their power in a largely repeated use of each test. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate the proposed procedure.     

Testing the Martingale Difference Hypothesis

In this paper we consider testing that an economic time series follows a martingale difference process. The martingale difference hypothesis has typically been tested using information contained in the second moments of a process, that is, using test statistics based on the sample autocovariances or periodograms. Tests based on these statistics are inconsistent since they cannot detect nonlinear alternatives. In this paper we consider tests that detect linear and nonlinear alternatives. Given that the asymptotic distributions of the considered tests statistics depend on the data generating process, we propose to implement the tests using a modified wild bootstrap procedure. The paper theoretically justifies the proposed tests and examines their finite sample behavior by means of Monte Carlo experiments.     

Diagnostic check for heavy tail in linear time series

Justification of heavy tail is an important open problem. A systematic approach is proposed to verify heavy tail in linear time series. It consists of three parts, each of which is guided by statistical tests. The analysis is supplemented by an application to ozone concentration. The methodology has the advantage that the threshold selection is data-driven. Simulations show that test results are accurate even under model misspecification. The power is good under two heavy-tailed alternatives. The test is invariant when the time series clusters at extreme level in the study of the max-autoregressive process. It also gives a preliminary measure of tail heaviness if the underlying process is heavy-tailed.     

Testing the Martingale Difference Hypothesis

Abstract

In this paper we consider testing that an economic time series follows a martingale difference process. The martingale difference hypothesis has typically been tested using information contained in the second moments of a process, that is, using test statistics based on the sample autocovariances or periodograms. Tests based on these statistics are inconsistent since they cannot detect nonlinear alternatives. In this paper we consider tests that detect linear and nonlinear alternatives. Given that the asymptotic distributions of the considered tests statistics depend on the data generating process, we propose to implement the tests using a modified wild bootstrap procedure. The paper theoretically justifies the proposed tests and examines their finite sample behavior by means of Monte Carlo experiments.     

Sequential nonparametric tests based on randomized play-the-winner rule for restricted bivariate alternatives

For comparing two treatment effects in a clinical trial under a univariate set-up, a sampling design called randomized play-the-winner (RPW) rule was used by different authors (see, e.g., Wei, 1979Wei, 1988; Wei and Durham, 1978). The objective of using such a rule was to allocate more patients to the better treatment. The present work suggests a bivariate version of the RPW rule. The rule is used to propose some sequential-type nonparametric tests for the equivalence of two bivariate treatment effects against a class of restricted alternatives. Some exact and asymptotic results associated with the tests are studied and examined. The limiting proportions of allocations to the two treatments are also obtained.     

Score Tests for Testing Independence in the Zero-Truncated Bivariate Poisson Models

In this study, score test statistics for testing independence in the zero-truncated bivariate Poisson distributions are proposed. The Monte Carlo study shows that the score tests proposed in this article keep the significance level close to the nominal one, but the LR and Wald tests over-reject the null hypothesis when it is true. The score tests for testing independence in the zero-truncated bivariate Poisson regression models are also derived in this study.