Combining least-squares and quantile regressions

Least-squares and quantile regressions are method of moments techniques that are typically used in isolation. A leading example where efficiency may be gained by combining least-squares and quantile regressions is one where some information on the error quantiles is available but the error distribution cannot be fully specified. This estimation problem may be cast in terms of solving an over-determined estimating equation (EE) system for which the generalized method of moments (GMM) and empirical likelihood (EL) are approaches of recognized importance. The major difficulty with implementing these techniques here is that the EEs associated with the quantiles are non-differentiable. In this paper, we develop a kernel-based smoothing technique for non-smooth EEs, and derive the asymptotic properties of the GMM and maximum smoothed EL (MSEL) estimators based on the smoothed EEs. Via a simulation study, we investigate the finite sample properties of the GMM and MSEL estimators that combine least-squares and quantile moment relationships. Applications to real datasets are also considered.     

Adjusted empirical likelihood inference for additive hazards regression

ABSTRACT

This article develops an adjusted empirical likelihood (EL) method for the additive hazards model. The adjusted EL ratio is shown to have a central chi-squared limiting distribution under the null hypothesis. We also evaluate its asymptotic distribution as a non central chi-squared distribution under the local alternatives of order n^{? 1/2}, deriving the expression for the asymptotic power function. Simulation studies and a real example are conducted to evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed method. Compared with the normal approximation-based method, the proposed method tends to have more larger empirical power and smaller confidence regions with comparable coverage probabilities.     

A smoothed Q‐learning algorithm for estimating optimal dynamic treatment regimes

In this paper, we propose a smoothed Q‐learning algorithm for estimating optimal dynamic treatment regimes. In contrast to the Q‐learning algorithm in which nonregular inference is involved, we show that, under assumptions adopted in this paper, the proposed smoothed Q‐learning estimator is asymptotically normally distributed even when the Q‐learning estimator is not and its asymptotic variance can be consistently estimated. As a result, inference based on the smoothed Q‐learning estimator is standard. We derive the optimal smoothing parameter and propose a data‐driven method for estimating it. The finite sample properties of the smoothed Q‐learning estimator are studied and compared with several existing estimators including the Q‐learning estimator via an extensive simulation study. We illustrate the new method by analyzing data from the Clinical Antipsychotic Trials of Intervention Effectiveness–Alzheimer's Disease (CATIE‐AD) study.     

Empirical Likelihood for Linear Models Under Linear Process Errors

In this article, we study the construction of confidence intervals for regression parameters in a linear model under linear process errors by using the blockwise technique. It is shown that the blockwise empirical likelihood (EL) ratio statistic is asymptotically χ²-type distributed. The result is used to obtain EL based confidence regions for regression parameters. The finite-sample performance of the method is evaluated through a simulation study.     

Two-sample high-dimensional empirical likelihood

In this paper, we apply empirical likelihood for two-sample problems with growing high dimensionality. Our results are demonstrated for constructing confidence regions for the difference of the means of two p-dimensional samples and the difference in value between coefficients of two p-dimensional sample linear model. We show that empirical likelihood based estimator has the efficient property. That is, as p → ∞ for high-dimensional data, the limit distribution of the EL ratio statistic for the difference of the means of two samples and the difference in value between coefficients of two-sample linear model is asymptotic normal distribution. Furthermore, empirical likelihood (EL) gives efficient estimator for regression coefficients in linear models, and can be as efficient as a parametric approach. The performance of the proposed method is illustrated via numerical simulations.     

Empirical likelihood for nonlinear models with missing responses

In this paper, a nonlinear model with response variables missing at random is studied. In order to improve the coverage accuracy for model parameters, the empirical likelihood (EL) ratio method is considered. On the complete data, the EL statistic for the parameters and its approximation have a χ² asymptotic distribution. When the responses are reconstituted using a semi-parametric method, the empirical log-likelihood on the response variables associated with the imputed data is also asymptotically χ². The Wilks theorem for EL on the parameters, based on reconstituted data, is also satisfied. These results can be used to construct the confidence region for the model parameters and the response variables. It is shown via Monte Carlo simulations that the EL methods outperform the normal approximation-based method in terms of coverage probability for the unknown parameter, including on the reconstituted data. The advantages of the proposed method are exemplified on real data.     

Empirical likelihood for nonlinear regression models with nonignorable missing responses

This article develops three empirical likelihood (EL) approaches to estimate parameters in nonlinear regression models in the presence of nonignorable missing responses. These are based on the inverse probability weighted (IPW) method, the augmented IPW (AIPW) method and the imputation technique. A logistic regression model is adopted to specify the propensity score. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate parameters in the propensity score by combining the idea of importance sampling and imputing estimating equations. Under some regularity conditions, we obtain the asymptotic properties of the maximum EL estimators of these unknown parameters. Simulation studies are conducted to investigate the finite sample performance of our proposed estimation procedures. Empirical results provide evidence that the AIPW procedure exhibits better performance than the other two procedures. Data from a survey conducted in 2002 are used to illustrate the proposed estimation procedure. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 48: 386–416; 2020 © 2020 Statistical Society of Canada     

Inference on Filtered and Smoothed Probabilities in Markov-Switching Autoregressive Models

ABSTRACT

We derive a statistical theory that provides useful asymptotic approximations to the distributions of the single inferences of filtered and smoothed probabilities, derived from time series characterized by Markov-switching dynamics. We show that the uncertainty in these probabilities diminishes when the states are separated, the variance of the shocks is low, and the time series or the regimes are persistent. As empirical illustrations of our approach, we analyze the U.S. GDP growth rates and the U.S. real interest rates. For both models, we illustrate the usefulness of the confidence intervals when identifying the business cycle phases and the interest rate regimes.     

Finite Sample Properties of the Two-Step Empirical Likelihood Estimator

ABSTRACT

We investigate the finite sample properties of two-step empirical likelihood (EL) estimators. These estimators are shown to have the same third-order bias properties as EL itself. The Monte Carlo study provides evidence that (i) higher order asymptotics fails to provide a good approximation in the sense that the bias of the two-step EL estimators can be substantial and sensitive to the number of moment restrictions and (ii) the two-step EL estimators may have heavy tails.     

Testing symmetry based on empirical likelihood

In this paper, we propose a general kth correlation coefficient between the density function and distribution function of a continuous variable as a measure of symmetry and asymmetry. We first propose a root-n moment-based estimator of the kth correlation coefficient and present its asymptotic results. Next, we consider statistical inference of the kth correlation coefficient by using the empirical likelihood (EL) method. The EL statistic is shown to be asymptotically a standard chi-squared distribution. Last, we propose a residual-based estimator of the kth correlation coefficient for a parametric regression model to test whether the density function of the true model error is symmetric or not. We present the asymptotic results of the residual-based kth correlation coefficient estimator and also construct its EL-based confidence intervals. Simulation studies are conducted to examine the performance of the proposed estimators, and we also use our proposed estimators to analyze the air quality dataset.     

The analysis of MX/M/1 queue with two-stage vacations policy

Abstract

In this article, we consider a batch arrival M^X/M/1 queue with two-stage vacations policy that comprises of single working vacation and multiple vacations, denoted by M^X/M/1/SWV?+?MV. Using the matrix analytic method, we derive the probability generating function (PGF) of the stationary system size and investigate the stochastic decomposition structure of stationary system size. Further, we obtain the Laplace–Stieltjes transform (LST) of stationary sojourn time of a customer by the first passage time analysis. At last, we illustrate the effects of various parameters on the performance measures numerically and graphically by some numerical examples.     

Empirical likelihood-based inference in nonlinear regression models with missing responses at random

This paper investigates the estimations of regression parameters and response mean in nonlinear regression models in the presence of missing response variables that are missing with missingness probabilities depending on covariates. We propose four empirical likelihood (EL)-based estimators for the regression parameters and the response mean. The resulting estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal under some general assumptions. To construct the confidence regions for the regression parameters as well as the response mean, we develop four EL ratio statistics, which are proven to have the χ² distribution asymptotically. Simulation studies and an artificial data set are used to illustrate the proposed methodologies. Empirical results show that the EL method behaves better than the normal approximation method and that the coverage probabilities and average lengths depend on the selection probability function.     

Spectral representation and autocovariance structure of Markov switching DSGE models

Abstract

We investigate the L²-structure of Markov switching Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (MS DSGE) models and derive conditions for strict and second-order stationarity. Then we determine the autocovariance function of the process driven by a stationary MS DSGE model and give a stable VARMA representation of it. It turns out that the autocovariance structure of the process coincides with that of a standard VARMA. Finally, we propose a method to derive the spectral density in a matrix closed-form of MS DSGE models. Our results relate with the works of Francq and Zakoian, Krolzig, Zhang and Stine. Numerical and empirical illustrations complete the article.     

Characterization of weak convergence for smoothed empirical and quantile processes under ϕ-mixing

Let X_n, n ⩾ 1 be a sequence of ϕ-mixing random variables having a smooth common distribution function F. The smoothed empirical distribution function is obtained by integrating a kernel type density estimator. In this paper we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the central limit theorem to hold for smoothed empirical distribution functions and smoothed sample quantiles. Also, necessary and sufficient conditions are given for weak convergence of the smoothed empirical process and the smoothed uniform quantile process.     

Analysis of non-repairable cold-standby systems in Bayes theory

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we seek to analyse the reliability of k-out-of-n cold-standby system with components having Weibull time-to-failure distribution in view of Bayes theory. At first, we review the existing methods exhaustively and find that all these methods have not considered Bayes theory. Then we modify the simplest method and propose new methods based on Monte Carlo simulation. Next, we combine all the information to derive the posterior distribution of Weibull parameters. A robust and universal sample-based method is proposed according to the Monte Carlo Markov Chain method to draw the sample of parameters to obtain the Bayes estimate of reliability. The drawn samples are proved to be rather satisfactory. Conducting a simulation study to compare all the methods in terms of accuracy and computational time, we have presented some useful recommendations from the simulation results. These conclusions would provide insight on the application for k-out-of-n cold-standby system.     

Empirical Likelihood in a Semi-Parametric Model for Missing Response Data

Let Y be a response and, given covariate X,Y has a conditional density f(y | x, θ), where θ is a unknown p-dimensional vector of parameters and the marginal distribution of X is unknown. When responses are missing at random, with auxiliary information and imputation, we define an adjusted empirical log-likelihood ratio for the mean of Y and obtain its asymptotic distribution. A simulation study is conducted to compare the adjusted empirical log-likelihood and the normal approximation method in terms of coverage accuracies.     

Mann–Whitney test with empirical likelihood methods for pretest–posttest studies

Pretest–posttest studies are an important and popular method for assessing the effectiveness of a treatment or an intervention in many scientific fields. While the treatment effect, measured as the difference between the two mean responses, is of primary interest, testing the difference of the two distribution functions for the treatment and the control groups is also an important problem. The Mann–Whitney test has been a standard tool for testing the difference of distribution functions with two independent samples. We develop empirical likelihood-based (EL) methods for the Mann–Whitney test to incorporate the two unique features of pretest–posttest studies: (i) the availability of baseline information for both groups; and (ii) the structure of the data with missing by design. Our proposed methods combine the standard Mann–Whitney test with the EL method of Huang, Qin and Follmann [(2008), ‘Empirical Likelihood-Based Estimation of the Treatment Effect in a Pretest–Posttest Study’, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 103(483), 1270–1280], the imputation-based empirical likelihood method of Chen, Wu and Thompson [(2015), ‘An Imputation-Based Empirical Likelihood Approach to Pretest–Posttest Studies’, The Canadian Journal of Statistics accepted for publication], and the jackknife empirical likelihood method of Jing, Yuan and Zhou [(2009), ‘Jackknife Empirical Likelihood’, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 104, 1224–1232]. Theoretical results are presented and finite sample performances of proposed methods are evaluated through simulation studies.     

A generalized p-value approach to inference on the performance measures of an M/Ek/1 queueing system

Abstract

The hypothesis tests of performance measures for an M/E_k/1 queueing system are considered. With pivotal models deduced from sufficient statistics for the unknown parameters, a generalized p-value approach to derive tests about parametric functions are proposed. The focus is on derivation of the p-values of hypothesis testing for five popular performance measures of the system in the steady state. Given a sample T, let p(T) be the p values we developed. We derive a closed form expression to show that, for small samples, the probability P(p(T) ? γ) is approximately equal to γ, for 0 ? γ ? 1.     

Empirical likelihood inference for a semiparametric hazards regression model

ABSTRACT

We investigated the empirical likelihood inference approach under a general class of semiparametric hazards regression models with survival data subject to right-censoring. An empirical likelihood ratio for the full 2p regression parameters involved in the model is obtained. We showed that it converged weakly to a random variable which could be written as a weighted sum of 2p independent chi-squared variables with one degree of freedom. Using this, we could construct a confidence region for parameters. We also suggested an adjusted version for the preceding statistic, whose limit followed a standard chi-squared distribution with 2p degrees of freedom.