Teaching a chance course

We read in our daily newspapers and see on television reports on issues that use probability and statistics such as: the use of DNA fingerprinting in the courts, testing for aids, the interpretation of economic indicators, polls, medical trials etc. We describe a course called Chance whose aim is to teach the basic concepts of probability and statistics in the context of current issues and to make students better able to interpret and critically analyze what they read in the news about issues that affect their daily lives     

政府统计数据准确性评估方法述评

目前,政府统计数据评估已经从方法研究上升至方法实践。针对现有评估实践中出现的种种问题,本文在系统介绍政府统计数据准确性评估方法原理和代表文献的基础上,重点分析了各种方法的应用前提、优势和局限性。文中提出应根据统计数据的特性,结合评估目的进行方法选择,尽量满足方法的使用前提,可以使用一种方法,也可以多种方法并用,并强调审慎对待评估结果。     

Bayes and MCMC for Undergraduates

Students of statistics should be taught the ideas and methods that are widely used in practice and that will help them understand the world of statistics. Today, this means teaching them about Bayesian methods. In this article, I present ideas on teaching an undergraduate Bayesian course that uses Markov chain Monte Carlo and that can be a second course or, for strong students, a first course in statistics.     

统计数据质量评估方法研究述评

数据质量评估是统计数据质量管理的重要环节。统计数据质量的评估方法有逻辑关系检验法、计量模型分析法、核算数据重估法、统计分布检验法、调查误差评估法以及多维评估法六个类别,在详细讨论其各自的评估过程、适用性及其优缺点的基础上,按照评估维度和评估方式对各种统计数据质量的评估方法进行再归类,指出评估方法的进一步研究应该围绕计量模型分析法、核算数据重估法中的物量指数重估法、调查误差评估法和多维评估法等方向展开。     

关于“在地统计”若干问题的思考

文章从实施"在地统计"改革的动因、改革的本质以及各级统计部门职能、"在地统计"改革中关键问题、数据分割、基数确定以及改革弊端等几方面进行探讨,提出了城市开展"在地统计"改革的具体建议和方法.     

基于SAM的宏观统计数据质量评估方法研究

数据质量评估是统计数据质量管理的重要环节。从SAM核算框架入手,提出了宏观统计数据质量的评估方法,主要包括等量核算指标体系评估方法、账户平衡指标体系评估方法及"问题型"评估方法,以期从SAM的角度为宏观统计数据质量的甄别和提高提供一种研究方法。     

渔业统计制度的国际比较及对我国的启示

随着全球经济一体化和信息技术的快速发展,我国的经济和贸易交往将进一步增强,社会经济现象将越来越复杂。因此,了解渔业统计制度并进行国际比较分析显得十分重要,它对国家制定渔业发展及经济管理政策有着重要意义。本文通过对各国渔业的统计制度和组织机构、统计法规和统计指标以及渔业统计管理和方法等方面的比较研究,为完善我国的渔业统计制度和运行机制提供借鉴。     

Simple and accurate one‐sided inference from signed roots of likelihood ratios

The authors propose two methods based on the signed root of the likelihood ratio statistic for one‐sided testing of a simple null hypothesis about a scalar parameter in the présence of nuisance parameters. Both methods are third‐order accurate and utilise simulation to avoid the need for onerous analytical calculations characteristic of competing saddlepoint procedures. Moreover, the new methods do not require specification of ancillary statistics. The methods respect the conditioning associated with similar tests up to an error of third order, and conditioning on ancillary statistics to an error of second order.     

In Memoriam: Simon Kuznets, 1901-1985

The profession of statistics has adopted too narrow a definition of itself. As a consequence, both statistics and statisticians play too narrow a role in policy formation and execution. Broadening that role will require statisticians to change the curriculum they use to train and develop their own professionals and what they teach nonstatisticians about statistics. Playing a proper role will require new research from statisticians that combines our skills in methods with other techniques of social scientists.     

Homogeneity Test of Risk Differences of Marginal and Conditional Probabilities in Several Incomplete Correlated 2 × 2 Tables

This article considers K pairs of incomplete correlated 2 × 2 tables in which the interesting measurement is the risk difference between marginal and conditional probabilities. A Wald-type statistic and a score-type statistic are presented to test the homogeneity hypothesis about risk differences across strata. Powers and sample size formulae based on the above two statistics are deduced. Figures about sample size against risk difference (or marginal probability) are given. A real example is used to illustrate the proposed methods.     

会计与统计的相互借鉴及相关思考

1992年国民经济核算体系的推广和1993年会计制度的改革几乎同时并举,使宏观统计核算和微观会计核算有了进一步交流和相互借鉴的可能。 近几年来,统计学界对统计核算借鉴会计方法讨论的比较多,如国民经济核算的资产负债表的编制,如循环账户中的复式记账法……,无疑使统计核算方法得到了完善。但这也给人们一个错误的信号,以为统计核算方法日益与会计方法靠拢,是否会失去“统计”的特性,实际上这种忧虑大可不必。长期以来,会计方法就借鉴了大量的统计方法,只不过很少有人把会计所借鉴的统计方法系统地总结,使人忽略了统计方法对会计方法的重要支持。本文侧重从统计方法在会计领域的广泛运用谈起,一是说明统计方法自身的重要性和应用性不可低估,二是说明会计和统计虽是两类不同层次的核算体系,但是它们之间通过相互借鉴。加强交流,既不影响它们独自的特性,而且还会促进两个领域的自我完善。     

中国IFDI统计现状分析与评价

内向外商直接投资（IFDI）是反映中国经济发展的重要指标,本文试图以国际标准来研究中国IFDI统计的现状。文章首先分析了《FDI基准定义（第四版）》（BD4）关于统计对象、统计内容和统计方法等方面的建议,然后从制度基础和实际数据分析了中国IFDI统计的现状,进而根据BD4对中国IFDI统计现状进行了评价。本文对中国IFDI统计的研究可以为客观认识中国IFDI现状,完善中国IFDI统计提供参考。     

The largest SNR distribution

The probability distribution of the maximum of normalized SNRs (signal-to-noise ratios) is studied for wireless systems with multiple branches. Explicit expressions and bounds are derived for the cumulative distribution function, probability density function, hazard rate function, moment generating function, nth moment, variance, skewness, kurtosis, mean deviation, Shannon entropy, order statistics and the asymptotic distribution of the extreme order statistics. Estimation procedures are derived by the methods of moments and maximum likelihood. An application is illustrated with respect to performance assessment of wireless systems.     

Random partition indicator and spacing statistics

Several conventional and new goodness-of-fit techniques are developed to assess random partitioning of a finite population into disjoint subsets. These nonparametric methods focus on indicator, spacing, and placement statistics. Mathematical development reminiscent of Fourier analysis yields distribution-free orthogonal indicator and spacing component goodness-of-fit procedures for simple random sampling assessment. Providing directional and omnibus criteria to detect between-subset differences, a main contribution of this survey is a unified treatment of the rank indicator procedures in Boos (1986) and the rank spacing methods in Kaigh (1994) with immediate applications to the nonparametric K-sample problem     

OPERATOR METHODS IN ORDER STATISTICS

This paper presents operator methods, based on difference and differential operators, for establishing identities satisfied by distributions of order statistics. In addition to deducing many known identities, these operator methods may also be used to derive several new identities for distributions of order statistics.     

Semi Varying Coefficient Zero-Inflated Generalized Poisson Regression Model

In this paper, the semi varying coefficient zero-inflated generalized Poisson model is discussed based on penalized log-likelihood. All the coefficient functions are fitted by penalized spline (P-spline), and Expectation-maximization algorithm is used to drive these estimators. The estimation approach is rapid and computationally stable. Under some mild conditions, the consistency and the asymptotic normality of these resulting estimators are given. The score test statistics about dispersion parameter is discussed based on the P-spline estimation. Both simulated and real data example are used to illustrate our proposed methods.     

On the validity of the perturbation method in asymptotic theory

The perturbation methods and the Taylor expansions are very often used to obtain test statistics approximations in multivariate analysis (Specially in Principal Component and Canonical Analyses). These approximations are then used to obtain formal Edgeworth expransions of the distribution functions of the statistics. BHATTACHARYA and GHOSH 1978 have justified these practices under suitable assumptions. In this paper a non classical perturbation problem is solved in order to obtain almost surely expansions of test statistics     

Statistical challenges of AIDS

"This paper considers questions concerning the incubation period [of HIV infections], the effects of treatments, prediction of AIDS cases, the choice of surrogate end points for the assessment of treatments and design of strategies for screening blood samples. These issues give rise to a broad range of intriguing problems for statisticians. We describe some of these problems, how they have been tackled so far and what remains to be done. The discussion touches on topical statistical methods such as smoothing, bootstrapping, interval censoring and the ill-posed inverse problem, as well as asking fundamental questions for frequentist statistics." The geographical scope is worldwide, with some data for selected developed countries used to illustrate the models.     

A generalized normal distribution

Undoubtedly, the normal distribution is the most popular distribution in statistics. In this paper, we introduce a natural generalization of the normal distribution and provide a comprehensive treatment of its mathematical properties. We derive expressions for the nth moment, the nth central moment, variance, skewness, kurtosis, mean deviation about the mean, mean deviation about the median, Rényi entropy, Shannon entropy, and the asymptotic distribution of the extreme order statistics. We also discuss estimation by the methods of moments and maximum likelihood and provide an expression for the Fisher information matrix.