The skew generalized t distribution as the scale mixture of a skew exponential power distribution and its applications in robust estimation

In this paper, we consider the family of skew generalized t (SGT) distributions originally introduced by Theodossiou [P. Theodossiou, Financial data and the skewed generalized t distribution, Manage. Sci. Part 1 44 (12) ( 1998), pp. 1650–1661] as a skew extension of the generalized t (GT) distribution. The SGT distribution family warrants special attention, because it encompasses distributions having both heavy tails and skewness, and many of the widely used distributions such as Student's t, normal, Hansen's skew t, exponential power, and skew exponential power (SEP) distributions are included as limiting or special cases in the SGT family. We show that the SGT distribution can be obtained as the scale mixture of the SEP and generalized gamma distributions. We investigate several properties of the SGT distribution and consider the maximum likelihood estimation of the location, scale, and skewness parameters under the assumption that the shape parameters are known. We show that if the shape parameters are estimated along with the location, scale, and skewness parameters, the influence function for the maximum likelihood estimators becomes unbounded. We obtain the necessary conditions to ensure the uniqueness of the maximum likelihood estimators for the location, scale, and skewness parameters, with known shape parameters. We provide a simple iterative re-weighting algorithm to compute the maximum likelihood estimates for the location, scale, and skewness parameters and show that this simple algorithm can be identified as an EM-type algorithm. We finally present two applications of the SGT distributions in robust estimation.     

A Data-Analytic Look at Skewness and Elongation in Common-Stock-Return Distributions

This article explores the nature of skewness and elongation in daily common-stock-return distributions of individual firms using estimates of g (for skewness) and h (for elongation) obtained from Tukey's g and h distributions. Both parametric and nonparametric (bootstrap) estimates of standard errors of the g estimates are computed and compared. Daily return distributions are first examined cross-sectionally over a large sample of firms. The estimates of the skewness parameter exhibit variation across individual firms, but some general trends are evident across industry groups and firm sizes. Return distributions typically seem to be more elongated than the Gaussian distribution. From a time series perspective, both skewness and elongation are persistent in the return distributions of individual firms and vary over a finite range. First-order autocorrelation coefficients of monthly g and h estimates are large and suggest a certain degree of predictability.     

A new estimate of skewness with mean-squared error smaller than that of the sample skewness

Recently, a new procedure for distribution fitting, based on matching of the first two moments, partial and complete, was introduced (Shore, 1995). When the sampling skewness of the fitted distribution is compared to the sample skewness, and both are regarded as estimates of the skewness of the underlying distribution, the mean-squared-error of the former is appreciably lower than that of the latter. In this paper we present some simulation results to support this claim and demonstrate its magnitude. An alternative two-moment distributional fitting procedure, based on a new family of four-parameter distributions, is also introduced and studied. Since three-moment distribution fitting is very common practice in simulation studies, these results may have important implications for the current state-of-the-art of simulation     

Maximum a-posteriori estimation of autoregressive processes based on finite mixtures of scale-mixtures of skew-normal distributions

This article investigates maximum a-posteriori (MAP) estimation of autoregressive model parameters when the innovations (errors) follow a finite mixture of distributions that, in turn, are scale-mixtures of skew-normal distributions (SMSN), an attractive and extremely flexible family of probabilistic distributions. The proposed model allows to fit different types of data which can be associated with different noise levels, and provides a robust modelling with great flexibility to accommodate skewness, heavy tails, multimodality and stationarity simultaneously. Also, the existence of convenient hierarchical representations of the SMSN random variables allows us to develop an EM-type algorithm to perform the MAP estimates. A comprehensive simulation study is then conducted to illustrate the superior performance of the proposed method. The new methodology is also applied to annual barley yields data.     

Toward the establishment of a family of distributions that may fit any dataset

This article presents a review and comparison of the most important expanded families of distributions. We set the essential requirements by which an expanding family can fit any dataset successfully. A new method is proposed to construct families, which fulfill these essential requirements. Consequently, two families are suggested, which are more tractable than many other known families and possess very wide range of the indices of skewness and kurtosis. The article is motivated by two applications to real dataset.     

Asymptotic normality of estimators for parameters of a multivariate skew-normal distribution

In this paper, asymptotic normality is established for the parameters of the multivariate skew-normal distribution under two parametrizations. Also, an analytic expression and an asymptotic normal law are derived for the skewness vector of the skew-normal distribution. The estimates are derived using the method of moments. Convergence to the asymptotic distributions is examined both computationally and in a simulation experiment.     

A useful distribution for fitting discrete data: revival of the Conway–Maxwell–Poisson distribution

Summary.  A useful discrete distribution (the Conway–Maxwell–Poisson distribution) is revived and its statistical and probabilistic properties are introduced and explored. This distribution is a two-parameter extension of the Poisson distribution that generalizes some well-known discrete distributions (Poisson, Bernoulli and geometric). It also leads to the generalization of distributions derived from these discrete distributions (i.e. the binomial and negative binomial distributions). We describe three methods for estimating the parameters of the Conway–Maxwell–Poisson distribution. The first is a fast simple weighted least squares method, which leads to estimates that are sufficiently accurate for practical purposes. The second method, using maximum likelihood, can be used to refine the initial estimates. This method requires iterations and is more computationally intensive. The third estimation method is Bayesian. Using the conjugate prior, the posterior density of the parameters of the Conway–Maxwell–Poisson distribution is easily computed. It is a flexible distribution that can account for overdispersion or underdispersion that is commonly encountered in count data. We also explore two sets of real world data demonstrating the flexibility and elegance of the Conway–Maxwell–Poisson distribution in fitting count data which do not seem to follow the Poisson distribution.     

Testing symmetry under a skew Laplace model

We develop tests of hypothesis about symmetry based on samples from possibly asymmetric Laplace distributions and present exact and limiting distribution of the test statistics. We postulate that the test statistic derived under the Laplace model is a rational choice as a measure of skewness and can be used in testing symmetry for other, quite general classes of skew distributions. Our results are applied to foreign exchange rates for 15 currencies.     

Parameter measures of skewness

Several different measures of skewness are commonly used in place of γ₁, the third central moment divided by the cube of the standard deviation. The numerical values of these measures are compared in this paper for members of the gamma, lognormal or Weibull family of distributions and shown to vary considerably in most cases even when skewness and kurtosis are moderate.     

A heteroscedastic measurement error model based on skew and heavy-tailed distributions with known error variances

In this paper, we study inference in a heteroscedastic measurement error model with known error variances. Instead of the normal distribution for the random components, we develop a model that assumes a skew-t distribution for the true covariate and a centred Student's t distribution for the error terms. The proposed model enables to accommodate skewness and heavy-tailedness in the data, while the degrees of freedom of the distributions can be different. Maximum likelihood estimates are computed via an EM-type algorithm. The behaviour of the estimators is also assessed in a simulation study. Finally, the approach is illustrated with a real data set from a methods comparison study in Analytical Chemistry.     

A robust regression methodology via M-estimation

A robust regression methodology is proposed via M-estimation. The approach adapts to the tail behavior and skewness of the distribution of the random error terms, providing for a reliable analysis under a broad class of distributions. This is accomplished by allowing the objective function, used to determine the regression parameter estimates, to be selected in a data driven manner. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator are established and a numerical algorithm is provided to implement the methodology. The finite sample performance of the proposed approach is exhibited through simulation and the approach was used to analyze two motivating datasets.     

Change Point Detection in The Skew-Normal Model Parameters

Bayesian inference under the skew-normal family of distributions is discussed using an arbitrary proper prior for the skewness parameter. In particular, we review some results when a skew-normal prior distribution is considered. Considering this particular prior, we provide a stochastic representation of the posterior of the skewness parameter. Moreover, we obtain analytical expressions for the posterior mean and variance of the skewness parameter. The ultimate goal is to consider these results to one change point identification in the parameters of the location-scale skew-normal model. Some Latin American emerging market datasets are used to illustrate the methodology developed in this work.     

An extended Maxwell distribution: Properties and applications

In this article, we propose an extension of the Maxwell distribution, so-called the extended Maxwell distribution. This extension is evolved by using the Maxwell-X family of distributions and Weibull distribution. We study its fundamental properties such as hazard rate, moments, generating functions, skewness, kurtosis, stochastic ordering, conditional moments and moment generating function, hazard rate, mean and variance of the (reversed) residual life, reliability curves, entropy, etc. In estimation viewpoint, the maximum likelihood estimation of the unknown parameters of the distribution and asymptotic confidence intervals are discussed. We also obtain expected Fisher’s information matrix as well as discuss the existence and uniqueness of the maximum likelihood estimators. The EMa distribution and other competing distributions are fitted to two real datasets and it is shown that the distribution is a good competitor to the compared distributions.     

Generalized Gumbel distribution

A generalization of the Gumbel distribution is presented to deal with general situations in modeling univariate data with broad range of skewness in the density function. This generalization is derived by considering a logarithmic transformation of an odd Weibull random variable. As a result, the generalized Gumbel distribution is not only useful for testing goodness-of-fit of Gumbel and reverse-Gumbel distributions as submodels, but it is also convenient for modeling and fitting a wide variety of data sets that are not possible to be modeled by well-known distributions. Skewness and kurtosis shapes of the generalized Gumbel distribution are illustrated by constructing the Galton’s skewness and Moor’s kurtosis plane. Parameters are estimated by using maximum likelihood method in two different ways due to the fact that the reverse transformation of the proposed distribution does not change its density function. In order to illustrate the flexibility of this generalization, wave and surge height data set is analyzed, and the fitness is compared with Gumbel and generalized extreme value distributions.     

On matrix variate skew-normal distributions

Two new families of matrix variate distributions are introduced. They are based on matrix normal distribution and yet can be used to model data involving skewness. The properties of the two families are investigated. Among others, the marginals, conditionals, stochastic representation, linear and quadratic forms are studied.     

Exponentiated Sinh Cauchy Distribution with Applications

The exponentiated sinh Cauchy distribution is characterized by four parameters: location, scale, symmetry, and asymmetry. The symmetry parameter preserves the symmetry of the distribution by producing both bimodal and unimodal densities having coefficient of kurtosis values ranging from one to positive infinity. The asymmetry parameter changes the symmetry of the distribution by producing both positively and negatively skewed densities having coefficient of skewness values ranging from negative infinity to positive infinity. Bimodality, skewness, and kurtosis properties of this regular distribution are presented. In addition, relations to some well-known distributions are examined in terms of skewness and kurtosis by constructing aliases of the proposed distribution on the symmetry and asymmetry parameter plane. The maximum likelihood parameter estimation technique is discussed, and examples are provided and analyzed based on data from astronomy and medical sciences to illustrate the flexibility of the distribution for modeling bimodal and unimodal data.     

A comparative review of generalizations of the Gumbel extreme value distribution with an application to wind speed data

ABSTRACT

The generalized extreme value distribution and its particular case, the Gumbel extreme value distribution, are widely applied for extreme value analysis. The Gumbel distribution has certain drawbacks because it is a non-heavy-tailed distribution and is characterized by constant skewness and kurtosis. The generalized extreme value distribution is frequently used in this context because it encompasses the three possible limiting distributions for a normalized maximum of infinite samples of independent and identically distributed observations. However, the generalized extreme value distribution might not be a suitable model when each observed maximum does not come from a large number of observations. Hence, other forms of generalizations of the Gumbel distribution might be preferable. Our goal is to collect in the present literature the distributions that contain the Gumbel distribution embedded in them and to identify those that have flexible skewness and kurtosis, are heavy-tailed and could be competitive with the generalized extreme value distribution. The generalizations of the Gumbel distribution are described and compared using an application to a wind speed data set and Monte Carlo simulations. We show that some distributions suffer from overparameterization and coincide with other generalized Gumbel distributions with a smaller number of parameters, that is, are non-identifiable. Our study suggests that the generalized extreme value distribution and a mixture of two extreme value distributions should be considered in practical applications.     

On the robustness properties for maximum likelihood estimators of parameters in exponential power and generalized T distributions*

Abstract

Examining the robustness properties of maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of parameters in exponential power and generalized t distributions has been considered together. The well-known asymptotic properties of ML estimators of location, scale and added skewness parameters in these distributions are studied. The ML estimators for location, scale and scale variant (skewness) parameters are represented as an iterative reweighting algorithm (IRA) to compute the estimates of these parameters simultaneously. The artificial data are generated to examine performance of IRA for ML estimators of parameters simultaneously. We make a comparison between these two distributions to test the fitting performance on real data sets. The goodness of fit test and information criteria approve that robustness and fitting performance should be considered together as a key for modeling issue to have the best information from real data sets.     

Testing high-dimensional normality based on classical skewness and Kurtosis with a possible small sample size

Abstract

By using the idea of principal component analysis, we propose an approach to applying the classical skewness and kurtosis statistics for detecting univariate normality to testing high-dimensional normality. High-dimensional sample data are projected to the principal component directions on which the classical skewness and kurtosis statistics can be constructed. The theory of spherical distributions is employed to derive the null distributions of the combined statistics constructed from the principal component directions. A Monte Carlo study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the statistics on controlling type I error rates and a simple power comparison with some existing statistics. The effectiveness of the proposed statistics is illustrated by two real-data examples.     

Estimation of variance of mean using known coefficient of variation

An optimum unbiased estimator of the variance of mean is given It is defined as a function of the mean and itscustomary unbiased variance estimator, utilizing known coefficient of variation, skewness and kurtosis of the underlying distributions. Exact results are obtained. Normal and large sample cases receive particular treatment. The proposed variance estimator is generally more efficient than the customary variance estimator; its relative efficiency becomes appreciably higher for smaller coefficient of variation, smaller sample (in the normal case at least), higher negative skewness, or higher positive skewness with sufficiently large kurtosis. The empirical findings are reassuring and supportive.