A test for gamma DFR alternative

In this article, a test for exponentiality against gamma DFR alternative based on a quadratic form of the logarithmic observations is proposed. The percentage points and the power of the test are computed through Monte-Carlo simulation. The test is seen to perform well as compared to a chi-square test proposed by Bain and Engelhardt(1975).     

On some reliability aspects of Pearson family of distributions

We characterize the Pearson family of distributions by finding a relationship between the failure rate and the higher order moments of residual life. We also present a characterization theorem of IFR(DFR) class of distributions in the Pearson family.     

Mean-variance bounds for order statistics from dependent DFR,IFR, DFRA and IFRA samples

For arbitrarily dependent identically distributed samples with DFR, IFR, DFRA and IFRA distributions, we determine the best attainable upper bounds for the expectation of arbitrary order statistics in terms of the expectation and variance of the parent distribution. Analogous results are concluded for spacings and some other L-estimates.     

Characterization of the geometric distribution using properties of order statistics

Using certain properties of order statistics, the geometric distribution has been characterized when the components are independent and identically distributed. When the components are independent, the geometric distribution has been characterized in the class of either IFR or DFR discrete distributions. In particular, Ferguson's (1967) characterization theorem for independent components in a sample of size two has been extended in several directions.     

On bivariate ageing properties of exchangeable Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern distributions

This paper deals with bivariate Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern distributions. We build the TP2 (RR2) property of the residual lifetime and study the evolution of the dependence of the residual lifetime at large age. Also, we derive the aging property in the sense of the upper orthant order. Furthermore, in the context of IFR (DFR) marginals the residual lifetime at the age above the median is found to be increasing (decreasing) in the upper orthant order.     

RELIABILITY PROPERTIES OF SERIES AND PARALLEL SYSTEMS FROM BIVARIATE EXPONENTIAL MODELS

ABSTRACT

In this paper we study the classification of the generalized mixtures of two or three exponential distributions, in the ILR and DLR classes, and consequently in the IFR and DFR classes. We apply these results to classify the aging of the series and parallel systems, in accord with some common bivariate exponential models of their components.     

Projection Mean–Variance Bounds on Expectations of kth Record Values from Restricted Families

We present sharp mean–variance bounds for expectations of kth record values based on distributions coming from restricted families of distributions. These families are defined in terms of convex or star ordering with respect to generalized Pareto distribution. The bounds for expectations of kth record values from DD, DFR, DDA, and DFRA families are special cases of our results. The bounds are derived by application of the projection method.     

A new three-parameter ageing distribution

We propose a new three-parameter ageing distribution called the Weibull-Poisson (WP) distribution, which generalizes the exponential-Poisson (EP) distribution introduced by Kus (2007). This new distribution has a more general form of failure rate (hazard rate) function. With appropriate choice of parameter values, it is able to model three ageing classes of life distributions including decreasing failure rate (DFR), increasing failure rate (IFR), and modified upside-down-bathtub (MUBT)-shaped failure rate. It thus provides an alternative to many existing life distributions. Various properties of this distribution are discussed and the estimation of the parameters is considered by the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. Also, the asymptotic variance-covariance matrices of these estimates are obtained. Furthermore, some expressions for the Rènyi and Shannon entropies are given. Simulation studies are performed and experimental results are illustrated based on a real data set.     

On the monotonic properties of discrete failure rates

As is well known, the monotonicity of failure rate of a life distribution plays an important role in modeling failure time data. In this paper, we develop techniques for the determination of increasing failure rate (IFR) and decreasing failure rate (DFR) property for a wide class of discrete distributions. Instead of using the failure rate, we make use of the ratio of two consecutive probabilities. The method developed is applied to various well known families of discrete distributions which include the binomial, negative binomial and Poisson distributions as special cases. Finally, a formula is presented to determine explicitly the failure rate of the families considered. This formula is used to determine the failure rate of various classes of discrete distributions. These formulas are explicit but complicated and cannot normally be used to determine the monotonicity of the failure rates.     

A wide review on exponentiality tests and two competitive proposals with application on reliability

In this paper, two new statistics based on comparison of the theoretical and empirical distribution functions are proposed to test exponentiality. Critical values are determined by means of Monte Carlo simulations for various sample sizes and different significance levels. Through an extensive simulation study, 50 selected exponentiality tests are studied for a wide collection of alternative distributions. From the empirical power study, it is concluded that, firstly, one of our proposals is preferable for IFR (increasing failure rate) and UFR (unimodal failure rate) alternatives, whereas the other one is preferable for DFR (decreasing failure rate) and BFR (bathtub failure rate) alternatives and, secondly, the new tests can be considered serious and powerful competitors to other existing proposals, since they have the same (or higher) level of performance than the best tests in the statistical literature.     

Minimum and Maximum Information Censoring Plans in Progressive Censoring

Expressions for the entropy, the Kullback-Leibler information, and the I _α-information are established for distributions of progressively Type-II censored order statistics. These results are used to identify minimum and maximum information censoring plans. In particular, we find minimum and maximum entropy plans for DFR, exponential, Pareto, reflected power, and Weibull distributions. The results for Kullback-Leibler and I _α-information hold for any continuous distribution.     

Negative dependence in frailty models

This note investigates the negative dependence in frailty models. First, we show that the frailty variable and the overall population variable are negatively likelihood ratio dependent and derive an upper bound for the survival function of the population with higher frailty. Secondly, we prove that the DFR property and the logconvex hazard rate of the baseline variable imply the DLR property of the population variable. Finally, we further prove that the likelihood ratio order, hazard rate order and reversed hazard rate order between two frailty variables imply the likelihood ratio order, reversed hazard rate order, and hazard rate order between the corresponding overall population variables, respectively.     

Some reliability properties of order statistics

Let X_i:j denote the i^th order statistic of a random sample of size j from a continuous life distribution. We show that if X_k:n, is IFR, IFRA, NBU, or DMRL, so are X_k+1:n, X_k+1:n?1 and X_k+1:n+1. Further we show that, in the first three cases, X_k+1:n+2 also shares the corresponding property if k ≤ (n+3)/2. We also present dual results for DFR, DFRA and NWU classes.     

Evaluation of the bias of the isotonic regression

The systematic error (bias) of the isotonic regression analysis of temporal spacings between failure events is investigated by means of numerical simulation. Spacings that are sampled from an exponential distribution with a constant failure rate (CFR) arc subjected to an isotonic regression search for a declining failure rate (DFR). The results indicate a considerable declining trend (bias) that is imposed upon these CFR-data by isotonic regression analysis. The corresponding results for an increasing trend can be readily obtained through transformation. For practical applications, the results of 100,000 simulations have been approximated by simple analytical expressions. For the evaluation of a trend in a specific set of isotonized spacings (or rates) the results of the latter analysis can be compared with the isotonic bias of a set of CFR data for the same number of events. Alternatively, the specific set of isotonized spacings can be suitably related to the corresponding isotonized CFR data to reduce the bias by largely eliminating the CFR contribution.     

Simple bounds on availability in a model with unknown life and repair distributions

We take a fresh look at the classic model of a device supported by a single statistically identical spare and provision for repairs, with system failure resulting whenever the currently operating unit fails before the repair of the previously failed unit is completed to allow it to become a spare. The limiting availability A(F,G) of this system depends on the life distribution F and repair time distribution G through α=∫GdF and the expected downtime. In this paper we derive several computable and sharp bounds on A(F,G) when F,G have suitable life distribution characteristics in the sense of reliability theory but are otherwise unknown except for at most two moments. Among other results, we find a sharp bound which involves the MTBF, MTTR and the second moment of the life-distribution of the device through its coefficient of variation. This leads to a maximin result for DFR repairs and DMRL lives.     

Two sets of isotones for comparing tests of exponentiality

Isotones   are a deterministic graphical device introduced by Mudholkar et al. [1991. A graphical procedure for comparing goodness-of-fit tests. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B 53, 221–232], in the context of comparing some tests of normality. An isotone of a test is a contour of p$p$ values of the test applied to “ideal samples”, called profiles, from a two-shape-parameter family representing the null and the alternative distributions of the parameter space. The isotone is an adaptation of Tukey's sensitivity curves, a generalization of Prescott's stylized sensitivity contours, and an alternative to the isodynes   of Stephens. The purpose of this paper is two fold. One is to show that the isotones can provide useful qualitative information regarding the behavior of the tests of distributional assumptions other than normality. The other is to show that the qualitative conclusions remain the same from one two-parameter family of alternatives to another. Towards this end we construct and interpret the isotones of some tests of the composite hypothesis of exponentiality, using the profiles of two Weibull extensions, the generalized Weibull and the exponentiated Weibull families, which allow IFR, DFR, as well as unimodal and bathtub failure rate alternatives. Thus, as a by-product of the study, it is seen that a test due to Csörg? et al. [1975. Application of characterizations in the area of goodness-of-fit. In: Patil, G.P., Kotz, S., Ord, J.K. (Eds.), Statistical Distributions in Scientific Work, vol. 2. Reidel, Boston, pp. 79–90], and Gnedenko's Q(r)$Q(r)$ test [1969. Mathematical Methods of Reliability Theory. Academic Press, New York], are appropriate for detecting monotone failure rate alternatives, whereas a bivariate F$F$ test due to Lin and Mudholkar [1980. A test of exponentiality based on the bivariate F$F$ distribution. Technometrics 22, 79–82] and their entropy test [1984. On two applications of characterization theorems to goodness-of-fit. Colloq. Math. Soc. Janos Bolyai 45, 395–414] can detect all alternatives, but are especially suitable for nonmonotone failure rate alternatives.     

Characterizations of geometric distribution and discrete IFR (DFR) distributions using order statistics

Let X be a discrete random variable the set of possible values (finite or infinite) of which can be arranged as an increasing sequence of real numbers a₁<a₂<a₃<…. In particular, a_i could be equal to i for all i. Let X_1n≦X_2n≦?≦X_nn denote the order statistics in a random sample of size n drawn from the distribution of X, where n is a fixed integer ≧2. Then, we show that for some arbitrary fixed k(2≦k≦n), independence of the event {X_kn=X_1n} and X_1n is equivalent to X being either degenerate or geometric. We also show that the montonicity in i of P{X_kn = X_1n | X_1n = a_i} is equivalent to X having the IFR (DFR) property. Let a_i = i and $\text{G(i) = P(X≧i), i = 1, 2, …}$. We prove that the independence of {X_2n ? X_1n ∈B} and X_1n for all i is equivalent to X being geometric, where B = {m} (B = {m,m+1,…}), provided G(i) = q^i?1, 1≦i≦m+2 (1≦i≦m+1), where 0<q<1.     

Monotone Log-Odds Rate Distributions in Reliability Analysis

Abstract

Monotone failure rate models [Barlow Richard, E., Marshall, A. W., Proschan, Frank. (1963 Barlow Richard, E., Marshall, A. W. and Proschan, Frank. 1963. Properties of probability distributions with monotone failure rate. Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 34: 375–389.  [Google Scholar]). Properties of probability distributions with monotone failure rate. Annals of Mathematical Statistics 34:375–389, and Barlow Richard, E., Proschan, Frank. (1965 Barlow Richard, E. and Proschan, Frank. 1965. Mathematical Theory of Reliability New York: John Wiley.  [Google Scholar]). Mathematical Theory of Reliability. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Barlow Richard, E., Proschan, Frank. (1966a Barlow Richard, E. and Proschan, Frank. 1966a. Tolerance and confidence limits for classes of distributions based on failure rate. Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 37(6): 1593–1601.  [Google Scholar]). Tolerance and confidence limits for classes of distributions based on failure rate. Annals of Mathematical Statistics 37(6):1593–1601, Barlow Richard, E., Proschan, Frank. (1966b Barlow Richard, E. and Proschan, Frank. 1966b. Inequalities for linear combinations of order statistics from restricted families. Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 37(6): 1574–1592.  [Google Scholar]). Inequalities for linear combinations of order statistics from restricted families. Annals of Mathematical Statistics 37(6):1574–1592, Barlow Richard, E., Proschan, Frank. (1975 Barlow Richard, E. and Proschan, Frank. 1975. Statistical Theory of Reliability and Life Testing New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, Inc..  [Google Scholar]). Statistical Theory of Reliability and Life Testing. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, Inc.] have become one of the most important models of failure time for reliability practitioners to consider and use. The above authors also developed models and bounds for monotone increasing failure rates (IFR) and for monotone decreasing failure rates (DFR). The IFR models and bounds appear to be especially useful for describing and bounding the hazard of aging. This article extends a new model for time to failure based onthe log odds rate [Zimmer William, J., Wang Yao, Pathak, P. K. (1998 Zimmer William, J., Wang, F. K. and Keats, J. Bert. 1998. The Burr XII distribution in reliability analysis. Journal of Quality Technology, 30(4): 386–394.  [Google Scholar]). Log-odds rate and monotone log-odds rate distributions. Journal of Quality Technology 30(4):376–385.] which is comparable to the model based on the failure rate. It is shown that in the case of increasing log odds rate (ILOR) in terms of log time (ln t), the model is less stringent than the IFR model for aging. The characterization of distributions of failure time by log odds rate is also derived. It is shown that the logistic distribution has the property of constant log odds rate over time and that the log logistic distribution has the property of constant log odds rate with respect to ln t. Some other properties of ILOR distributions are presented and bounds based on the relationship to the log logistic distribution are provided for distributions which are ILOR with respect to ln t. Motivational examples are provided. The ILOR bounds are compared to the more stringent bounds based on the IFR model. Bounds on system reliability are also provided for certain systems.     

Two tests for sequential detection of a change-point in a nonlinear model

In this paper, two tests, based on weighted CUSUM of the least squares residuals, are studied to detect in real time a change-point in a nonlinear model. A first test statistic is proposed by extension of a method already used in the literature but for the linear models. It is tested under the null hypothesis, at each sequential observation, that there is no change in the model against a change presence. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis is given and its convergence in probability to infinity is proved when a change occurs. These results will allow to build an asymptotic critical region. Next, in order to decrease the type I error probability, a bootstrapped critical value is proposed and a modified test is studied in a similar way. A generalization of the Hájek–Rényi inequality is established.     

Parameterization and inference for nonparametric regression problems

We consider local likelihood or local estimating equations, in which a multivariate function () is estimated but a derived function () of () is of interest. In many applications, when most naturally formulated the derived function is a non-linear function of (). In trying to understand whether the derived non-linear function is constant or linear, a problem arises with this approach: when the function is actually constant or linear, the expectation of the function estimate need not be constant or linear, at least to second order. In such circumstances, the simplest standard methods in nonparametric regression for testing whether a function is constant or linear cannot be applied. We develop a simple general solution which is applicable to nonparametric regression, varying-coefficient models, nonparametric generalized linear models, etc. We show that, in local linear kernel regression, inference about the derived function () is facilitated without a loss of power by reparameterization so that () is itself a component of (). Our approach is in contrast with the standard practice of choosing () for convenience and allowing ()> to be a non-linear function of (). The methods are applied to an important data set in nutritional epidemiology.