Likelihood centered asymptotic model exponential and location model versions

For testing a scalar interest parameter in a large sample asymptotic context, methods with third-order accuracy are now available that make a reduction to the simple case having a scalar parameter and scalar variable. For such simple models on the real line, we develop canonical versions that correspond closely to an exponential model and to a location model; these canonical versions are obtained by standardizing and reexpressing the variable and the parameters, the needed steps being given in algorithmic form. The exponential and location approximations have three parameters, two corresponding to the pure-model type and one for departure from that type. We also record the connections among the common test quantities: the signed likelihood departure, the standardized score variable, and the location-scale corrected signed likelihood ratio. These connections are for fixed data point and would bear on the effectiveness of the quantities for inference with the particular data; an earlier paper recorded the connections for fixed parameter value, and would bear on distributional properties.     

On asymptotic normality of likelihood and conditional analysis

The likelihood function from a large sample is commonly assumed to be approximately a normal density function. The literature supports, under mild conditions, an approximate normal shape about the maximum; but typically a stronger result is needed: that the normalized likelihood itself is approximately a normal density. In a transformation-parameter context, we consider the likelihood normalized relative to right-invariant measure, and in the location case under moderate conditions show that the standardized version converges almost surely to the standard normal. Also in a transformation-parameter context, we show that almost sure convergence of the normalized and standardized likelihood to a standard normal implies that the standardized distribution for conditional inference converges almost surely to a corresponding standard normal. This latter result is of immediate use for a range of estimating, testing, and confidence procedures on a conditional-inference basis.     

Interpreting statistical evidence by using imperfect models: robust adjusted likelihood functions

Summary. The strength of statistical evidence is measured by the likelihood ratio. Two key performance properties of this measure are the probability of observing strong misleading evidence and the probability of observing weak evidence. For the likelihood function associated with a parametric statistical model, these probabilities have a simple large sample structure when the model is correct. Here we examine how that structure changes when the model fails. This leads to criteria for determining whether a given likelihood function is robust (continuing to perform satisfactorily when the model fails), and to a simple technique for adjusting both likelihoods and profile likelihoods to make them robust. We prove that the expected information in the robust adjusted likelihood cannot exceed the expected information in the likelihood function from a true model. We note that the robust adjusted likelihood is asymptotically fully efficient when the working model is correct, and we show that in some important examples this efficiency is retained even when the working model fails. In such cases the Bayes posterior probability distribution based on the adjusted likelihood is robust, remaining correct asymptotically even when the model for the observable random variable does not include the true distribution. Finally we note a link to standard frequentist methodology—in large samples the adjusted likelihood functions provide robust likelihood-based confidence intervals.     

Improving predictive inference under covariate shift by weighting the log-likelihood function

A class of predictive densities is derived by weighting the observed samples in maximizing the log-likelihood function. This approach is effective in cases such as sample surveys or design of experiments, where the observed covariate follows a different distribution than that in the whole population. Under misspecification of the parametric model, the optimal choice of the weight function is asymptotically shown to be the ratio of the density function of the covariate in the population to that in the observations. This is the pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation of sample surveys. The optimality is defined by the expected Kullback–Leibler loss, and the optimal weight is obtained by considering the importance sampling identity. Under correct specification of the model, however, the ordinary maximum likelihood estimate (i.e. the uniform weight) is shown to be optimal asymptotically. For moderate sample size, the situation is in between the two extreme cases, and the weight function is selected by minimizing a variant of the information criterion derived as an estimate of the expected loss. The method is also applied to a weighted version of the Bayesian predictive density. Numerical examples as well as Monte-Carlo simulations are shown for polynomial regression. A connection with the robust parametric estimation is discussed.     

Approximating bayesian inference by weighted likelihood

The author proposes to use weighted likelihood to approximate Bayesian inference when no external or prior information is available. He proposes a weighted likelihood estimator that minimizes the empirical Bayes risk under relative entropy loss. He discusses connections among the weighted likelihood, empirical Bayes and James‐Stein estimators. Both simulated and real data sets are used for illustration purposes.     

Bounds for the expected value of records from discrete distributions

It is well known that under appropriate hypothesis of existence of moments, the expected value of standardized records from continuous distributions are bounded. We show that in the discrete case these quantities may be unbounded. Nevertheless, it is possible to find upper bounds when weak records are considered rather than ordinary ones. We study the particular case of the first standardized spacing.     

On marginal likelihood inference for the intra-class correlation coefficient

A p-component set of responses have been constructed by a location-scale transformation to a p-component set of error variables, the covariance matrix of the set of error variables being of intra-class covariance structure:all variances being unity, and covariance being equal [IML0001]. A sample of size n has been described as a conditional structural model, conditional on the value of the intra-class correlation coefficient ρ. The conditional technique of structural inference provides the marginal likelihood function of ρ based on the standardized residuals. For the normal case, the marginal likelihood function of ρ is seen to be dependent on the standardized residuals through the sample intra-class correlation coefficient. By the likelihood modulation technique, the nonnull distribution of the sample intra-class correlation coefficient has also been obtained.     

Information criteria for inhomogeneous spatial point processes

The theoretical foundation for a number of model selection criteria is established in the context of inhomogeneous point processes and under various asymptotic settings: infill, increasing domain and combinations of these. For inhomogeneous Poisson processes we consider Akaike's information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion, and in particular we identify the point process analogue of ‘sample size’ needed for the Bayesian information criterion. Considering general inhomogeneous point processes we derive new composite likelihood and composite Bayesian information criteria for selecting a regression model for the intensity function. The proposed model selection criteria are evaluated using simulations of Poisson processes and cluster point processes.     

Bayesian validation assessment of multivariate computational models

Multivariate model validation is a complex decision-making problem involving comparison of multiple correlated quantities, based upon the available information and prior knowledge. This paper presents a Bayesian risk-based decision method for validation assessment of multivariate predictive models under uncertainty. A generalized likelihood ratio is derived as a quantitative validation metric based on Bayes’ theorem and Gaussian distribution assumption of errors between validation data and model prediction. The multivariate model is then assessed based on the comparison of the likelihood ratio with a Bayesian decision threshold, a function of the decision costs and prior of each hypothesis. The probability density function of the likelihood ratio is constructed using the statistics of multiple response quantities and Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed methodology is implemented in the validation of a transient heat conduction model, using a multivariate data set from experiments. The Bayesian methodology provides a quantitative approach to facilitate rational decisions in multivariate model assessment under uncertainty.     

Backcalculation of flexible linear models of the human immunodeficiency virus infection curve

The authors present a regression approach to the backcalculation of flexible linear models of the HIV infection curve. They note that "because expected AIDS incidence can be expressed as a linear function of unknown parameters, regression methods may be used to obtain parameter and covariance estimates for a variety of interesting quantities, such as the expected number of people infected in previous time intervals and the projected AIDS incidence in future time intervals. We exploit these ideas to show that estimates based on maximum likelihood are, for practical purposes, equivalent to approximate estimates based on quasi-likelihood and on Poisson regression. These algorithms are readily implemented on a personal computer." These concepts are illustrated by projecting AIDS incidence in the United States up to 1993.     

A New Class of Non Negative Distributions Generated by Symmetric Distributions

In this article, we study a new class of non negative distributions generated by the symmetric distributions around zero. For the special case of the distribution generated using the normal distribution, properties like moments generating function, stochastic representation, reliability connections, and inference aspects using methods of moments and maximum likelihood are studied. Moreover, a real data set is analyzed, illustrating the fact that good fits can result.     

Selection Strategy for Covariance Structure of Random Effects in Linear Mixed‐effects Models

Linear mixed‐effects models are a powerful tool for modelling longitudinal data and are widely used in practice. For a given set of covariates in a linear mixed‐effects model, selecting the covariance structure of random effects is an important problem. In this paper, we develop a joint likelihood‐based selection criterion. Our criterion is the approximately unbiased estimator of the expected Kullback–Leibler information. This criterion is also asymptotically optimal in the sense that for large samples, estimates based on the covariance matrix selected by the criterion minimize the approximate Kullback–Leibler information. Finite sample performance of the proposed method is assessed by simulation experiments. As an illustration, the criterion is applied to a data set from an AIDS clinical trial.     

Information criteria for the predictive evaluation of bayesian models

As a natural successor of the information criteria AIC and ABIC, information criteria for the Bayes models were developed by evaluating the bias of the log likelihood of the predictive distribution as an estimate of its expected log-likelihood. Considering two specific situations for the true distribution, two information criteria, PIC₁ and PIC₂ are derived. Linear Gaussian cases are considered in details and the evaluation of the maximum a posteriori estimator is also considered. By a simple example of estimating the signal to noise ratio, it was shown that the PIC₂ is a good approximation to the expected log-likelihood in the entire region of the signal to noise ratio. On the other hand, PIC₁ performs good only for the smaller values of the variance ratio. For illustration, the problems of trend estimation and seasonal adjustment are considered. Examples show that the hyper-parameters estimated by the new criteria are usually closer to the best ones than those by the ABIC.     

Tracking interval for selecting between non-nested models: An investigation for Type II right censored data

In this paper, we consider the setting where the observed data is incomplete. For the general situation where the number of gaps as well as the number of unobserved values in some gaps go to infinity, the asymptotic behavior of maximum likelihood estimator is not clear. We derive and investigate the asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimator under censorship and drive a statistic for testing the null hypothesis that the proposed non-nested models are equally close to the true model against the alternative hypothesis that one model is closer when we are faced with a life-time situation. Furthermore rewrite a normalization of a difference of Akaike criterion for estimating the difference of expected Kullback–Leibler risk between the distributions in two different models.     

The score test for the two‐sample occupancy model

The score test statistic from the observed information is easy to compute numerically. Its large sample distribution under the null hypothesis is well known and is equivalent to that of the score test based on the expected information, the likelihood‐ratio test and the Wald test. However, several authors have noted that under the alternative hypothesis this no longer holds and in particular the score statistic from the observed information can take negative values. We extend the anthology on the score test to a problem of interest in ecology when studying species occurrence. This is the comparison of two zero‐inflated binomial random variables from two independent samples under imperfect detection. An analysis of eigenvalues associated with the score test in this setting assists in understanding why using the observed information matrix in the score test can be problematic. We demonstrate through a combination of simulations and theoretical analysis that the power of the score test calculated under the observed information decreases as the populations being compared become more dissimilar. In particular, the score test based on the observed information is inconsistent. Finally, we propose a modified rule that rejects the null hypothesis when the score statistic is computed using the observed information is negative or is larger than the usual chi‐square cut‐off. In simulations in our setting this has power that is comparable to the Wald and likelihood ratio tests and consistency is largely restored. Our new test is easy to use and inference is possible. Supplementary material for this article is available online as per journal instructions.     

Approximate likelihood methods for estimating local recombination rates

Summary. There is currently great interest in understanding the way in which recombination rates vary, over short scales, across the human genome. Aside from inherent interest, an understanding of this local variation is essential for the sensible design and analysis of many studies aimed at elucidating the genetic basis of common diseases or of human population histories. Standard pedigree-based approaches do not have the fine scale resolution that is needed to address this issue. In contrast, samples of deoxyribonucleic acid sequences from unrelated chromosomes in the population carry relevant information, but inference from such data is extremely challenging. Although there has been much recent interest in the development of full likelihood inference methods for estimating local recombination rates from such data, they are not currently practicable for data sets of the size being generated by modern experimental techniques. We introduce and study two approximate likelihood methods. The first, a marginal likelihood, ignores some of the data. A careful choice of what to ignore results in substantial computational savings with virtually no loss of relevant information. For larger sequences, we introduce a 'composite' likelihood, which approximates the model of interest by ignoring certain long-range dependences. An informal asymptotic analysis and a simulation study suggest that inference based on the composite likelihood is practicable and performs well. We combine both methods to reanalyse data from the lipoprotein lipase gene, and the results seriously question conclusions from some earlier studies of these data.     

Belief functions and statistical inference

The Dempster Shafer theory of belief functions is a method of quantifying uncertainty that generalizes probability theory. We review the theory of belief functions in the context of statistical inference. We mainly focus on a particular belief function based on the likelihood function and its application to problems with partial prior information. We also consider connections to upper and lower probabilities and Bayesian robustness.     

Random balanced resampling: A new method for estimating variance components in unbalanced designs

Variance components in factorial designs with balanced data are commonly estimated by equating mean squares to expected mean squares. For unbalanced data, the usual extensions of this approach are the Henderson methods, which require formulas that are rather involved. Alternatively, maximum likelihood estimation based on normality has been proposed. Although the algorithm for maximum likelihood is computationally complex, programs exist in some statistical packages. This article introduces a simpler method, that of creating a balanced data set by resampling from the original one. Revised formulas for expected mean squares are presented for the two-way case; they are easily generalized to larger factorial designs. The results of a number of simulation studies indicate that, in certain types of designs, the proposed method has performance advantages over both the Henderson Method I and maximum likelihood estimators.     

Converting observed likelihood to levels of significance for transformation models

Inference for a scalar parameter in the pressence of nuisance parameters requires high dimensional integrations of the joint density of the pivotal quantities. Recent development in asymptotic methods provides accurate approximations for significance levels and thus confidence intervals for a scalar component parameter. In this paper, a simple, efficient and accurate numerical procedure is first developed for the location model and is then extended to the location-scale model and the linear regression model. This numerical procedure only requires a fine tabulation of the parameter and the observed log likelihood function, which can be either the full, marginal or conditional observed log likelihood function, as input and output is the corresponding significance function. Numerical results showed that this approximation is not only simple but also very accurate. It outperformed the usual approximations such as the signed likelihood ratio statistic, the maximum likelihood estimate and the score statistic.     

The beta log-normal distribution

For the first time, we introduce the beta log-normal (LN) distribution for which the LN distribution is a special case. Various properties of the new distribution are discussed. Expansions for the cumulative distribution and density functions that do not involve complicated functions are derived. We obtain expressions for its moments and for the moments of order statistics. The estimation of parameters is approached by the method of maximum likelihood, and the expected information matrix is derived. The new model is quite flexible in analysing positive data as an important alternative to the gamma, Weibull, generalized exponential, beta exponential, and Birnbaum–Saunders distributions. The flexibility of the new distribution is illustrated in an application to a real data set.