Analyzing continuous randomized response data with an indifference-zone selection procedure

A review of the randomized response model introduced by Warner (1965) is given, then a randomized response model applicable to continuous data that considers a mixture of two normal distributions is considered. The target here is not to estimate any parameter, but rather to select the population with the best parameter value. This article provides a study on how to choose the best population between k distinct populations using an indifference-zone procedure. Also, this article includes tables for the required sample size needed in order to have a probability of correct selection higher than some specified value in the preference zone for the randomized response model considered.     

Efficiency of an adaptive estimator of a log-zero-poisson parameter

An estimator, λ is proposed for the parameter λ of the log-zero-Poisson distribution. While it is not a consistent estimator of λ in the usual statistical sense, it is shown to be quite close to the maximum likelihood estimates for many of the 35 sets of data on which it is tried. Since obtaining maximum likelihood estimates is extremely difficult for this and other contagious distributions, this estimate will act at least as an initial estimate in solving the likelihood equations iteratively. A lesson learned from this experience is that in the area of contagious distributions, variability is so large that attention should be focused directly on the mean squared error and not on consistency or unbiasedness, whether for small samples or for the asymptotic case. Sample sizes for some of the data considered in the paper are in hundreds. The fact that the estimator which is not a consistent estimator of λ is closer to the maximum likeli-hood estimator than the consistent moment estimator shows that the variability is large enough to not permit consistency to materialize even for such large sample sizes usually available in actual practice.     

The average likelihood and a fiducial approximation: one parameter members of the generalized gamma distributions

The average likelihood, defined as the integral of the like-lihood function over the parameter space, has been used as a criterion for model selection The form of the average likelihood considered uses a uniform prior. An approximation is presented based on fiducial distributions. The sampling distributions of the average likelihood and its fiducial approximation are derived for cases of sampling from one parameter members of the general-ized gamma distributions.     

BARTLETT CORRECTED LIKELIHOOD RATIO TESTS IN LOCATION-SCALE NONLINEAR MODELS

The paper derives Bartlett corrections for improving the chisquare approximation to the likelihood ratio statistics in a class of location-scale family of distributions, which encompasses the elliptical family of distributions and also asymmetric distributions such as the extreme value distributions. We present, in matrix notation, a Bartlett corrected likelihood ratio statistic for testing that a subset of the nonlinear regression coefficients in this class of models equals a given vector of constants. The formulae derived are simple enough to be used analytically to obtain several Bartlett corrections in a variety of important models. We show that these formulae generalize a number of previously published results. We also present simulation results comparing the sizes and powers of the usual likelihood ratio tests and their Bartlett corrected versions when the scale parameter is considered known and when this parameter is uncorrectly specified.     

Posterior Distributions for the Gini Coefficient Using Grouped Data

When available data comprise a number of sampled households in each of a number of income classes, the likelihood function is obtained from a multinomial distribution with the income class population proportions as the unknown parameters. Two methods for going from this likelihood function to a posterior distribution on the Gini coefficient are investigated. In the first method, two alternative assumptions about the underlying income distribution are considered, namely a lognormal distribution and the Singh–Maddala (1976) income distribution. In these cases the likelihood function is reparameterized and the Gini coefficient is a nonlinear function of the income distribution parameters. The Metropolis algorithm is used to find the corresponding posterior distributions of the Gini coefficient from a sample of Bangkok households. The second method does not require an assumption about the nature of the income distribution, but uses (a) triangular prior distributions, and (b) beta prior distributions, on the location of mean income within each income class. By sampling from these distributions, and the Dirichlet posterior distribution of the income class proportions, alternative posterior distributions of the Gini coefficient are calculated.     

Analysis of incomplete data in experiments with repeated measurements in clinicaltrials using a stochastic model

A stochastic model is proposed to analyze the observation vectors of variable lengths in a long-term clinical trial. Using a Markovian normal density, the likelihood ratio tests for usual hypotheses are derived and asymptotic distributions of the test statistics are obtained. The use of 'step-down' procedure is discussed for the interim analysis and a numerical example is given to illustrate the methodology.     

Step partially accelerated life tests under finite mixture models

In this paper, step partially accelerated life tests are considered when the lifetime of an item under use condition follows a finite mixture of distributions. The analysis is performed when each of the components follows a general class of distributions, which includes, among others, the Weibull, compound Weibull (or three-parameter Burr type XII), power function, Gompertz and compound Gompertz distributions. Based on type-I censoring, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the mixing proportions, scale parameters and acceleration factor are obtained. Special attention is paid to a mixture of two exponential components. Simulation results are obtained to study the precision of MLEs.     

Two-stage hierarchical modeling for analysis of subpopulations in conditional distributions

In this work, we develop modeling and estimation approach for the analysis of cross-sectional clustered data with multimodal conditional distributions where the main interest is in analysis of subpopulations. It is proposed to model such data in a hierarchical model with conditional distributions viewed as finite mixtures of normal components. With a large number of observations in the lowest level clusters, a two-stage estimation approach is used. In the first stage, the normal mixture parameters in each lowest level cluster are estimated using robust methods. Robust alternatives to the maximum likelihood estimation are used to provide stable results even for data with conditional distributions such that their components may not quite meet normality assumptions. Then the lowest level cluster-specific means and standard deviations are modeled in a mixed effects model in the second stage. A small simulation study was conducted to compare performance of finite normal mixture population parameter estimates based on robust and maximum likelihood estimation in stage 1. The proposed modeling approach is illustrated through the analysis of mice tendon fibril diameters data. Analyses results address genotype differences between corresponding components in the mixtures and demonstrate advantages of robust estimation in stage 1.     

Model selection: some generalized distributions

Many models have been used to represent the distributions of random variables in statistics, engineering, business, and the physical and social science. This paper considers two, four-parameter generalized bea distributions that include nearly all the models actually used as special or limiting cases. Properties and the interrelationships among these distributions are considered. Expressions are reported that facilitate parameter estimation and the analysis of associated means, variances, hazard functions and other distributional characteristics.

Estimation procedures corresponding to different data types are considered. Maximum likelihood estimation is used and the value of the likelihood function provides and important criterion for model selection. The relative performance of the various models is compared for several data sets.     

Further remarks on asymptotic normality of likelihood and conditional analyses

Under weak conditions the normalized likelihood with or without weight function almost surely converges to a normal density function: for a real parameter or a vector parameter; with or without the assumption of independent identical distributions. Applications arise for confidence intervals, confidence distributions, structural distributions. and conditional analyses with transformation and structural models.     

Stochastic volatility in mean models with scale mixtures of normal distributions and correlated errors: A Bayesian approach

A stochastic volatility in mean model with correlated errors using the symmetrical class of scale mixtures of normal distributions is introduced in this article. The scale mixture of normal distributions is an attractive class of symmetric distributions that includes the normal, Student-t, slash and contaminated normal distributions as special cases, providing a robust alternative to estimation in stochastic volatility in mean models in the absence of normality. Using a Bayesian paradigm, an efficient method based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is developed for parameter estimation. The methods developed are applied to analyze daily stock return data from the São Paulo Stock, Mercantile & Futures Exchange index (IBOVESPA). The Bayesian predictive information criteria (BPIC) and the logarithm of the marginal likelihood are used as model selection criteria. The results reveal that the stochastic volatility in mean model with correlated errors and slash distribution provides a significant improvement in model fit for the IBOVESPA data over the usual normal model.     

On MLE of a nonlinear discriminant function from a mixture of two Gompertz distributions based on small sample size

The property of identifiability is an important consideration on estimating the parameters in a mixture of distributions. Also classification of a random variable based on a mixture can be meaning fully discussed only if the class of all finite mixtures is identifiable. The problem of identifiability of finite mixture of Gompertz distributions is studied. A procedure is presented for finding maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of a mixture of two Gompertz distributions, using classified and unclassified observations. Based on small sample size, estimation of a nonlinear discriminant function is considered. Throughout simulation experiments, the performance of the corresponding estimated nonlinear discriminant function is investigated.     

Computation of probability and non-centrality parameter of a non-central f-distribution

The small sample properties of the score function approximation to the maximum likelihood estimator for the three-parameter lognormal distribution using an alternative parameterization are considered. The new set of parameters is a continuous function of the usual parameters. However, unlike with the usual parameterization, the score function technique for this parameterization is extremely insensitive to starting values. Further, it is shown that whenever the sample third moment is less than zero, a local maximum to the likelihood function exists at a boundary point. For the usual parameterization, this point is unattainable. However, the alternative parameter space can be expanded to include these boundary points. This procedure results in good estimates of the expected value, variance, extreme percentiles and other parameters of the distribution even in samples where, with the typical parameterization, the estimation procedure fails to converge.     

Two population classification in Gaussian process

The problem is to classify an individual into one of two populations based on an observation on the individual which follows a stationary Gaussian process and the populations are two distinct time points. Plug-in likelihood ratio rules are considered using samples from the process. The distribution of associated classification statistics are derived. For the special case when the mis-classification probabilities are equal, the nature of dependence between the population distributions on the probability of correct classification is studied. Lower bounds and iterative method of evaluation of the optimal correlation between the populations are obtained.     

Normal Mixture Quasi-maximum Likelihood Estimator for GARCH Models

Abstract.  The generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) model has been popular in the analysis of financial time series data with high volatility. Conventionally, the parameter estimation in GARCH models has been performed based on the Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood. However, when the innovation terms have either heavy-tailed or skewed distributions, the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) does not function well. In order to remedy this defect, we propose the normal mixture QMLE (NM-QMLE), which is obtained from the normal mixture quasi-likelihood, and demonstrate that the NM-QMLE is consistent and asymptotically normal. Finally, we present simulation results and a real data analysis in order to illustrate our findings.     

Normalization in Econometrics

The issue of normalization arises whenever two different values for a vector of unknown parameters imply the identical economic model. A normalization implies not just a rule for selecting which among equivalent points to call the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE), but also governs the topography of the set of points that go into a small-sample confidence interval associated with that MLE. A poor normalization can lead to multimodal distributions, disjoint confidence intervals, and very misleading characterizations of the true statistical uncertainty. This paper introduces an identification principle as a framework upon which a normalization should be imposed, according to which the boundaries of the allowable parameter space should correspond to loci along which the model is locally unidentified. We illustrate these issues with examples taken from mixture models, structural vector autoregressions, and cointegration models.     

Estimation op parameters in finite mixtures of exponential families from censored data

A general successive substitutions' scheme is developed to estimate parameters in a finite mixture of distributions from the exponential family, based on censored data. It is assumed that the data can be grouped in the first class and the number of observations in each of the remaining classes are known Examples from Poisson Exponential and Normal distributions are given A small simulation exercise has also been carried out for the mixture of two one parameter exponential population.     

Gamma failure‐time mixture models: yet another way to establish efficacy

Using a Yamaguchi‐type generalized gamma failure‐time mixture model, we analyse the data from a study of autologous and allogeneic bone marrow transplantation in the treatment of high‐risk refractory acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, focusing on the time to recurrence of disease. We develop maximum likelihood techniques for the joint estimation of the surviving fractions and the survivor functions. This includes an approximation to the derivative of the survivor function with respect to the shape parameter. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters. We also compute the variance‐covariance matrix of the parameter estimators. The extended family of generalized gamma failure‐time mixture models is flexible enough to include many commonly used failure‐time distributions as special cases. Yet these models are not used in practice because of computational difficulties. We claim that we have overcome this problem. The proposed approximation to the derivative of the survivor function with respect to the shape parameter can be used in any statistical package. We also address the issue of lack of identifiability. We point out that there can be a substantial advantage to using the gamma failure‐time mixture models over nonparametric methods. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ordinal ridge regression with categorical predictors

In multi-category response models, categories are often ordered. In the case of ordinal response models, the usual likelihood approach becomes unstable with ill-conditioned predictor space or when the number of parameters to be estimated is large relative to the sample size. The likelihood estimates do not exist when the number of observations is less than the number of parameters. The same problem arises if constraint on the order of intercept values is not met during the iterative procedure. Proportional odds models (POMs) are most commonly used for ordinal responses. In this paper, penalized likelihood with quadratic penalty is used to address these issues with a special focus on POMs. To avoid large differences between two parameter values corresponding to the consecutive categories of an ordinal predictor, the differences between the parameters of two adjacent categories should be penalized. The considered penalized-likelihood function penalizes the parameter estimates or differences between the parameter estimates according to the type of predictors. Mean-squared error for parameter estimates, deviance of fitted probabilities and prediction error for ridge regression are compared with usual likelihood estimates in a simulation study and an application.     

Penalized Maximum Likelihood Estimator for Normal Mixtures

The estimation of the parameters of a mixture of Gaussian densities is considered, within the framework of maximum likelihood. Due to unboundedness of the likelihood function, the maximum likelihood estimator fails to exist. We adopt a solution to likelihood function degeneracy which consists in penalizing the likelihood function. The resulting penalized likelihood function is then bounded over the parameter space and the existence of the penalized maximum likelihood estimator is granted. As original contribution we provide asymptotic properties, and in particular a consistency proof, for the penalized maximum likelihood estimator. Numerical examples are provided in the finite data case, showing the performances of the penalized estimator compared to the standard one.