Linear regression through the origin with constant coefficient of variation for the inverse gaussian distribution

A simple linear regression model with no intercept term for the situation where the response variable obeys an inverse Gaussian distribution and the coefficient of variation is an unknown constant is discussed. Maximum likelihood estimators and the confidence limits of the regression parameter are obtained. Finally uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimators of parameters are given.     

Percentile bounds and tolerance limits for the birnbaum-saunders distribution

In this paper, a confidence interval for the lOOpth percentile of the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution is constructed. Conservative two-sided tolerance limits are then obtained from the confidence limits. These results are useful for reliability evaluation when using the Birnbaum-Saunders model. A simple scheme for generating Birnbaum-Saunders random variates is derived. This is used for a simulation study on investigating the effectiveness of the proposed confidence interval in terms of its coverage probability.     

Approximate Confidence Limits for a Proportion of the Pólya Distribution

The problem of constructing approximate confidence limits for a proportion parameter of the Pólya distribution is discussed. Three different methods for determining approximate one-sided and two-sided confidence limits for that parameter of the Pólya distribution have been proposed and compared. Particular cases of those confidence bounds are confidence intervals for the parameter of the binomial and the hypergeometric distributions.     

Estimating the discovery rate in a continuous time recapture model

We consider a family of marked Poisson process models for the discovery of distinct errors in a computer program and also for sampling, in continu-ous time, a population containing an unknown number of distinct biological species. Captures (selections or discoveries) are assumed to occur at a con-stant rate, each event consisting of the discovery of a distinct process (error or species) or the recurrence of a previously discovered process. Using a generalization of Nayak’s (1988) model we derive confidence limits for the discovery rate. The limits are based on the asymptotic distribution of a scaled logarithmic function of the maximum likelihood estimator.     

A Note on Derived Means of Scaled Data

Details are given of the procedures for calculating derived means of square-root and log transformed variables from un-subdivided and layered samples. A method for determining approximate confidence limits of the derived means is also described. The temporal distribution of nematodes in grass herbage is given as an example to illustrate the procedures used.     

The automatic percentile method: Accurate confidence limits in parametric models

The problem of constructing confidence limits for a scalar parameter is considered. Under weak conditions, Efron's accelerated bias-corrected bootstrap confidence limits are correct to second order in parametric familles. In this article, a new method, called the automatic percentile method, for setting approximate confidence limits is proposed as an attempt to alleviate two problems inherent in Efron's method. The accelerated bias-corrected method is not fully automatic, since it requires the calculation of an analytical adjustment; furthermore, it is typically not exact, though for many situations, particularly scalar-parameter familles, exact answers are available. In broader generality, the proposed method is exact when exact answers exist, and it is second-order accurate otherwise. The automatic percentile method is automatic, and for scalar parameter models it can be iterated to achieve higher accuracy, with the number of computations being linear in the number of iterations. However, when nuisance parameters are present, only second-order accuracy seems obtainable.     

Approximate Confidence Limits for the Difference between Parameters of Two Pólya Distributions

The problem of calculating approximate confidence limits for the difference between success probability parameters of two Pólya distributions is solved for the first time. We suggest some new methods for determining these approximate confidence limits and consider their application to special cases: namely for the binomial and hypergeometric distributions. The various approximate confidence limits are evaluated and compared.     

Estimation for the bivariate normal correlation coefficient using asymptotic expansions

Harley (1954) gave asymptotic expansions for the distributio function and for percentiles of the distribution of the bivariate normal sample correlation coefficient. To the stated order of approximation these expansions were incomplete in that contributions from some higher cumulants were not taken into account. In this article the completed expansions are given together with an asymptotic expansion yielding approximate confidence limits for the population correlation coefficient. Numerical comparisons indicate that asymptotic expansions are superior to other suggested approximate methods     

The asymptotic distribution of a pivotal quantity for a capture-recapture model

A pivotal quantity for a capture-recapture model is introduced and used to construct an asymptotic confidence region for (ε,N), where ε is the capture efficiency and N is the population size. The true confidence levels of certain regions are obtained by simulation. Certain confidence regions for (ε,N) are drawn to show the size of the regions and to show how confidence limits for N depend on ε.     

Low dose risk estimation via simultaneous statistical inferences

Summary.  The paper develops and studies simultaneous confidence bounds that are useful for making low dose inferences in quantitative risk analysis. Application is intended for risk assessment studies where human, animal or ecological data are used to set safe low dose levels of a toxic agent, but where study information is limited to high dose levels of the agent. Methods are derived for estimating simultaneous, one-sided, upper confidence limits on risk for end points measured on a continuous scale. From the simultaneous confidence bounds, lower confidence limits on the dose that is associated with a particular risk (often referred to as a bench-mark dose ) are calculated. An important feature of the simultaneous construction is that any inferences that are based on inverting the simultaneous confidence bounds apply automatically to inverse bounds on the bench-mark dose.     

A Note on the Use of Confidence Limits following Rejection of a Null Hypothesis

The equivalence of some tests of hypothesis and confidence limits is well known. When, however, the confidence limits are computed only after rejection of a null hypothesis, the usual unconditional confidence limits are no longer valid. This refers to a strict two-stage inference procedure: first test the hypothesis of interest and if the test results in a rejection decision, then proceed with estimating the relevant parameter. Under such a situation, confidence limits should be computed conditionally on the specified outcome of the test under which estimation proceeds. Conditional confidence sets will be longer than unconditional confidence sets and may even contain values of the parameter previously rejected by the test of hypothesis. Conditional confidence limits for the mean of a normal population with known variance are used to illustrate these results. In many applications, these results indicate that conditional estimation is probably not good practice.     

Tables of confidence limits on the tail area of the normal distribution

Tables are given of confidence limits on tail areas, γ, of the normal distribution, where γ = P{Y ≥ L}, and where L is a given number, and Y is normally distributed with unknown mean, μ, and unknown variance, σ².     

Generalized confidence limits for the performance index of the exponentially distributed lifetime

Under a two-parameter exponential distribution, this study constructs the generalized lower confidence limit of the lifetime performance index C_L based on type-II right-censored data. The confidence limit has to be numerically obtained; however, the required computations are simple and straightforward. Confidence limits of C_L computed under the generalized paradigm are compared with those of C_L computed under the classical paradigm, citing an illustrative example with real data and two examples with simulated data, to demonstrate the merits and advantages of the proposed generalized variable method over the classical method.     

Simultaneous confidence band for the difference of segmented linear models

Consider comparing between two treatments a response variable, whose expectation depends on the value of a continuous covariate in some nonlinear fashion. We fit separate segmented linear models to each treatment to approximate the nonlinear relationship. For this setting, we provide a simultaneous confidence band for the difference between treatments of the expected value functions. The treatments are said to differ significantly on intervals of the covariate where the simultaneous confidence band does not contain zero. We consider segmented linear models where the locations of the changepoints are both known and unknown. The band is obtained from asymptotic results.     

Computing exact one-sided confidence limits for treatment effect in clinical trials

One standard summary of a clinical trial is a confidence limit for the effect of the treatment. Unfortunately, standard approximate limits may have poor frequentist properties, even for quite large sample sizes. It has been known since Buehler (1957 Buehler, R. J. (1957). Confidence intervals for the product of two binomial parameters. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 52:482–493. [Google Scholar]) that an imperfect confidence limit can be adjusted to have exact coverage. These “tight” limits are the gold standard frequentist confidence limit. Computing tight limits requires exact calculation of certain tail probabilities and optimisation of potentially erratic functions of the nuisance parameter. Naive implementation is both computationally unreliable and highly burdensome, and perhaps explains why they are not in common use. For clinical trials however, where the data and parameter have dimension two, the difficulties can be fully surmounted. This paper brings together several results in the area and applies them to simple two dimensional problems. It is shown how to reduce the computational burden by an order of magnitude. Difficulties with the optimisation reliability are mitigated by applying two different computational strategies, which tend to break down under different conditions, and taking the less stringent of the two computed limits. This paper specifically develops limits for the relative risk in a clinical trial, but it should be clear to the reader that the method extends to arbitrary measures of treatment effect without essential modification.     

On multivariate confidence regions and simultaneous confidence limits for ratios

Convenient general linear model computational procedures are presented for constructing multivariate confidence regions and simultaneous confidence limits for ratios of linear combinations of the parameters. The practical consequence is that a single general linear model computer program, capable of validating the underlying model and estimating the parameters, can (after slight modification) also construct the confidence regions, and even determine their precise analytic form (ellipsoid, hyperboloid, etc.). The text is deliberately factual while the appendices extend and help clarify earlier work by Henry Scheffe. As an example, a confidence ellipse and simultaneous confidence limits are constructed for several relative potencies in a classical multiple parallel line bioassay.     

Covariate Adjusted Correlation Analysis via Varying Coefficient Models

Abstract.  We propose covariate adjusted correlation (Cadcor) analysis to target the correlation between two hidden variables that are observed after being multiplied by an unknown function of a common observable confounding variable. The distorting effects of this confounding may alter the correlation relation between the hidden variables. Covariate adjusted correlation analysis enables consistent estimation of this correlation, by targeting the definition of correlation through the slopes of the regressions of the hidden variables on each other and by establishing a connection to varying-coefficient regression. The asymptotic distribution of the resulting adjusted correlation estimate is established. These distribution results, when combined with proposed consistent estimates of the asymptotic variance, lead to the construction of approximate confidence intervals and inference for adjusted correlations. We illustrate our approach through an application to the Boston house price data. Finite sample properties of the proposed procedures are investigated through a simulation study.     

The lindstrom-madden method for serties systems with repeated components

The Lindstrom-Madden method of approximating lower confidence limits for series systems with unlike components is extended to series systems with repeated components utilizing the methods of Buehler, Sudakov and of Harris and Sons. An exact solution is given for no failures and key test results, together with an approximation for the general case. Numerical examples are also provided.     

Likelihood Ratio Confidence Bands in Non–parametric Regression with Censored Data

Let ( X , Y ) be a random vector, where Y denotes the variable of interest possibly subject to random right censoring, and X is a covariate. We construct confidence intervals and bands for the conditional survival and quantile function of Y given X using a non-parametric likelihood ratio approach. This approach was introduced by Thomas & Grunkemeier (1975 ), who estimated confidence intervals of survival probabilities based on right censored data. The method is appealing for several reasons: it always produces intervals inside [0, 1], it does not involve variance estimation, and can produce asymmetric intervals. Asymptotic results for the confidence intervals and bands are obtained, as well as simulation results, in which the performance of the likelihood ratio intervals and bands is compared with that of the normal approximation method. We also propose a bandwidth selection procedure based on the bootstrap and apply the technique on a real data set.     

Conservative confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient for clustered binary data

Asymptotic approaches are traditionally used to calculate confidence intervals for intraclass correlation coefficient in a clustered binary study. When sample size is small to medium, or correlation or response rate is near the boundary, asymptotic intervals often do not have satisfactory performance with regard to coverage. We propose using the importance sampling method to construct the profile confidence limits for the intraclass correlation coefficient. Importance sampling is a simulation based approach to reduce the variance of the estimated parameter. Four existing asymptotic limits are used as statistical quantities for sample space ordering in the importance sampling method. Simulation studies are performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed accurate intervals with regard to coverage and interval width. Simulation results indicate that the accurate intervals based on the asymptotic limits by Fleiss and Cuzick generally have shorter width than others in many cases, while the accurate intervals based on Zou and Donner asymptotic limits outperform others when correlation and response rate are close to their boundaries.