POWER FUNCTION FOR INVERSE GAUSSIAN REGRESSION MODELS

Inverse Gaussian regression models are useful for data where both the independent and dependent variable are nonnegative and the variance of the dependent variable depends on the independent variable. Zero intercept inverse Gaussian regression models are presented with nonconstant variance, constant ratio of variance to the mean and constant coefficient of variation. The power function for testing hypotheses about the slope is given for all of these models.     

Estimation and variable selection in nonparametric heteroscedastic regression

The article considers a Gaussian model with the mean and the variance modeled flexibly as functions of the independent variables. The estimation is carried out using a Bayesian approach that allows the identification of significant variables in the variance function, as well as averaging over all possible models in both the mean and the variance functions. The computation is carried out by a simulation method that is carefully constructed to ensure that it converges quickly and produces iterates from the posterior distribution that have low correlation. Real and simulated examples demonstrate that the proposed method works well. The method in this paper is important because (a) it produces more realistic prediction intervals than nonparametric regression estimators that assume a constant variance; (b) variable selection identifies the variables in the variance function that are important; (c) variable selection and model averaging produce more efficient prediction intervals than those obtained by regular nonparametric regression.     

Linear regression through the origin with constant coefficient of variation for the inverse gaussian distribution

A simple linear regression model with no intercept term for the situation where the response variable obeys an inverse Gaussian distribution and the coefficient of variation is an unknown constant is discussed. Maximum likelihood estimators and the confidence limits of the regression parameter are obtained. Finally uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimators of parameters are given.     

Inference with three-level prior distributions in quantile regression problems

In this paper, we propose a three level hierarchical Bayesian model for variable selection and estimation in quantile regression problems. Specifically, at the first level we consider a zero mean normal priors for the coefficients with unknown variance parameters. At the second level, we specify two different priors for the unknown variance parameters which introduce two different models producing different levels of sparsity. Then, at the third level we suggest joint improper priors for the unknown hyperparameters assuming they are independent. Simulations and Boston Housing data are utilized to compare the performance of our models with six existing models. The results indicate that our models perform good in the simulations and Boston Housing data.     

Discrepancy in regression estimates between log-normal and gamma: some case studies

In regression models with multiplicative error, estimation is often based on either the log-normal or the gamma model. It is well known that the gamma model with constant coefficient of variation and the log-normal model with constant variance give almost the same analysis. This article focuses on the discrepancies of the regression estimates between the two models based on real examples. It identifies that even though the variance or the coefficient of variation remains constant, but regression estimates may be different between the two models. It also identifies that for the same positive data set, the variance is constant under the log-normal model but non-constant under the gamma model. For this data set, the regression estimates are completely different between the two models. In the process, it explains the causes of discrepancies between the two models.     

A Coefficient of Determination for Generalized Linear Models

The coefficient of determination, a.k.a. R², is well-defined in linear regression models, and measures the proportion of variation in the dependent variable explained by the predictors included in the model. To extend it for generalized linear models, we use the variance function to define the total variation of the dependent variable, as well as the remaining variation of the dependent variable after modeling the predictive effects of the independent variables. Unlike other definitions that demand complete specification of the likelihood function, our definition of R² only needs to know the mean and variance functions, so applicable to more general quasi-models. It is consistent with the classical measure of uncertainty using variance, and reduces to the classical definition of the coefficient of determination when linear regression models are considered.     

Finite population prediction under a linear function superpopulation model:a bayesian perspective

Exact and approximate Bayesian inference is developed for the prediction problem in finite populations under a linear functional superpopulation model. The models considered are the usual regression models involving two variables, X and Y, where the independent variable X is measured with error. The approach is based on the conditional distribution of Y given X and our predictor is the posterior mean of the quantity of interest (population total and population variance) given the observed data. Empirical investigations about optimal purposive samples and possible model misspecifications based on comparisons with the corresponding models where X is measured without error are also reported.     

Regression Properties for Asymmetric Generalized Scale Mixtures of Multivariate Gaussian Variables

Analytical properties of regression and the variance–covariance matrix of asymmetric generalized scale mixture of multivariate Gaussian variables are presented. The analysis includes an in-depth analytical investigation of the first two conditional moments of the mixing variable. Exact computable expressions for the prediction and the conditional variance are presented for the generalized hyperbolic distribution using the inversion theorem for Fourier transforms. An application to financial log returns is demonstrated via the classical Euler approximation. The methodology is illustrated by analyzing the regression of intraday log returns for CISCO against the corresponding data from S&P 500.     

OPTIMAL DESIGN OF PLANS FOR ACCEPTANCE SAMPLING BY VARIABLES WITH INVERSE GAUSSIAN DISTRIBUTION

ABSTRACT

A vast majority of the literature on the design of sampling plans by variables assumes that the distribution of the quality characteristic variable is normal, and that only its mean varies while its variance is known and remains constant. But, for many processes, the quality variable is nonnormal, and also either one or both of the mean and the variance of the variable can vary randomly. In this paper, an optimal economic approach is developed for design of plans for acceptance sampling by variables having Inverse Gaussian (IG) distributions. The advantage of developing an IG distribution based model is that it can be used for diverse quality variables ranging from highly skewed to almost symmetrical. We assume that the process has two independent assignable causes, one of which shifts the mean of the quality characteristic variable of a product and the other shifts the variance. Since a product quality variable may be affected by any one or both of the assignable causes, three different likely cases of shift (mean shift only, variance shift only, and both mean and variance shift) have been considered in the modeling process. For all of these likely scenarios, mathematical models giving the cost of using a variable acceptance sampling plan are developed. The cost models are optimized in selecting the optimal sampling plan parameters, such as the sample size, and the upper and lower acceptance limits. A large set of numerical example problems is solved for all the cases. Some of these numerical examples are also used in depicting the consequences of: 1) using the assumption that the quality variable is normally distributed when the true distribution is IG, and 2) using sampling plans from the existing standards instead of the optimal plans derived by the methodology developed in this paper. Sensitivities of some of the model input parameters are also studied using the analysis of variance technique. The information obtained on the parameter sensitivities can be used by the model users on prudently allocating resources for estimation of input parameters.     

Bayesian Conditional Mean Estimation in Log‐Normal Linear Regression Models with Finite Quadratic Expected Loss

Log‐normal linear regression models are popular in many fields of research. Bayesian estimation of the conditional mean of the dependent variable is problematic as many choices of the prior for the variance (on the log‐scale) lead to posterior distributions with no finite moments. We propose a generalized inverse Gaussian prior for this variance and derive the conditions on the prior parameters that yield posterior distributions of the conditional mean of the dependent variable with finite moments up to a pre‐specified order. The conditions depend on one of the three parameters of the suggested prior; the other two have an influence on inferences for small and medium sample sizes. A second goal of this paper is to discuss how to choose these parameters according to different criteria including the optimization of frequentist properties of posterior means.     

Dynamic Random Effects Models for Times Between Repeated Events

We consider recurrent event data when the duration or gap times between successive event occurrences are of intrinsic interest. Subject heterogeneity not attributed to observed covariates is usually handled by random effects which result in an exchangeable correlation structure for the gap times of a subject. Recently, efforts have been put into relaxing this restriction to allow non-exchangeable correlation. Here we consider dynamic models where random effects can vary stochastically over the gap times. We extend the traditional Gaussian variance components models and evaluate a previously proposed proportional hazards model through a simulation study and some examples. Besides, semiparametric estimation of the proportional hazards models is considered. Both models are easily used. The Gaussian models are easily interpreted in terms of the variance structure. On the other hand, the proportional hazards models would be more appropriate in the context of survival analysis, particularly in the interpretation of the regression parameters. They can be sensitive to the choice of model for random effects but not to the choice of the baseline hazard function.     

Data augmentation,frequentist estimation,and the Bayesian analysis of multinomial logit models

This article describes a convenient method of selecting Metropolis– Hastings proposal distributions for multinomial logit models. There are two key ideas involved. The first is that multinomial logit models have a latent variable representation similar to that exploited by Albert and Chib (J Am Stat Assoc 88:669–679, 1993) for probit regression. Augmenting the latent variables replaces the multinomial logit likelihood function with the complete data likelihood for a linear model with extreme value errors. While no conjugate prior is available for this model, a least squares estimate of the parameters is easily obtained. The asymptotic sampling distribution of the least squares estimate is Gaussian with known variance. The second key idea in this paper is to generate a Metropolis–Hastings proposal distribution by conditioning on the estimator instead of the full data set. The resulting sampler has many of the benefits of so-called tailored or approximation Metropolis–Hastings samplers. However, because the proposal distributions are available in closed form they can be implemented without numerical methods for exploring the posterior distribution. The algorithm converges geometrically ergodically, its computational burden is minor, and it requires minimal user input. Improvements to the sampler’s mixing rate are investigated. The algorithm is also applied to partial credit models describing ordinal item response data from the 1998 National Assessment of Educational Progress. Its application to hierarchical models and Poisson regression are briefly discussed.     

Functional analysis of variance for Hilbert-valued multivariate fixed effect models

This paper presents new results on functional analysis of variance for fixed effect models with correlated Hilbert-valued Gaussian error components. The geometry of the reproducing kernel Hilbert space of the error term is considered in the computation of the total sum of squares, the residual sum of squares, and the sum of squares due to the regression. Under suitable linear transformation of the correlated functional data, the distributional characteristics of these statistics, their moment generating and characteristic functions, are derived. Fixed effect linear hypothesis testing is finally formulated in the Hilbert-valued multivariate Gaussian context considered.     

A class of finite mixture of quantile regressions with its applications

Mixture of linear regression models provide a popular treatment for modeling nonlinear regression relationship. The traditional estimation of mixture of regression models is based on Gaussian error assumption. It is well known that such assumption is sensitive to outliers and extreme values. To overcome this issue, a new class of finite mixture of quantile regressions (FMQR) is proposed in this article. Compared with the existing Gaussian mixture regression models, the proposed FMQR model can provide a complete specification on the conditional distribution of response variable for each component. From the likelihood point of view, the FMQR model is equivalent to the finite mixture of regression models based on errors following asymmetric Laplace distribution (ALD), which can be regarded as an extension to the traditional mixture of regression models with normal error terms. An EM algorithm is proposed to obtain the parameter estimates of the FMQR model by combining a hierarchical representation of the ALD. Finally, the iterated weighted least square estimation for each mixture component of the FMQR model is derived. Simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performance of the estimation procedure. Analysis of an aphid data set is used to illustrate our methodologies.     

Modification of GEE1 and linear mixed-effects models for heteroscedastic longitudinal Gaussian data

A characterization of GLMs is given. Modification of the Gaussian GEE1, modified GEE1, was applied to heteroscedastic longitudinal data, to which linear mixed-effects models are usually applied. The modified GEE1 models scale multivariate data to homoscedastic data maintaining the correlation structure and apply usual GEE1 to homoscedastic data, which needs no-diagnostics for diagonal variances. Relationships among multivariate linear regression methods, ordinary/generalized LS, naïve/modified GEE1, and linear mixed-effects models were discussed. An application showed modified GEE1 gave most efficient parameter estimation. Correct specification of the main diagonals of heteroscedastic data variance appears to be more important for efficient mean parameter estimation.     

Change-Point Detection for Variance Piecewise Constant Models

A new approach based on the fit of a generalized linear regression model is introduced for detecting change-points in the variance of heteroscedastic Gaussian variables, with piecewise constant variance function. This approach overcome some limitations of both exact and approximate well-known methods that are based on successive application of search and tend to overestimate the real number of changes in the variance of the series. The proposed method just requires the computation of a gamma GLM with log-link, resulting in a very efficient algorithm even with large sample size and many change points to be estimated.     

Using conditional independence for parsimonious model-based Gaussian clustering

In the framework of model-based cluster analysis, finite mixtures of Gaussian components represent an important class of statistical models widely employed for dealing with quantitative variables. Within this class, we propose novel models in which constraints on the component-specific variance matrices allow us to define Gaussian parsimonious clustering models. Specifically, the proposed models are obtained by assuming that the variables can be partitioned into groups resulting to be conditionally independent within components, thus producing component-specific variance matrices with a block diagonal structure. This approach allows us to extend the methods for model-based cluster analysis and to make them more flexible and versatile. In this paper, Gaussian mixture models are studied under the above mentioned assumption. Identifiability conditions are proved and the model parameters are estimated through the maximum likelihood method by using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm. The Bayesian information criterion is proposed for selecting the partition of the variables into conditionally independent groups. The consistency of the use of this criterion is proved under regularity conditions. In order to examine and compare models with different partitions of the set of variables a hierarchical algorithm is suggested. A wide class of parsimonious Gaussian models is also presented by parameterizing the component-variance matrices according to their spectral decomposition. The effectiveness and usefulness of the proposed methodology are illustrated with two examples based on real datasets.     

Objective Bayes Covariate‐Adjusted Sparse Graphical Model Selection

We present an objective Bayes method for covariance selection in Gaussian multivariate regression models having a sparse regression and covariance structure, the latter being Markov with respect to a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Our procedure can be easily complemented with a variable selection step, so that variable and graphical model selection can be performed jointly. In this way, we offer a solution to a problem of growing importance especially in the area of genetical genomics (eQTL analysis). The input of our method is a single default prior, essentially involving no subjective elicitation, while its output is a closed form marginal likelihood for every covariate‐adjusted DAG model, which is constant over each class of Markov equivalent DAGs; our procedure thus naturally encompasses covariate‐adjusted decomposable graphical models. In realistic experimental studies, our method is highly competitive, especially when the number of responses is large relative to the sample size.     

Model Selection,Transformations and Variance Estimation in Nonlinear Regression

The results of analyzing experimental data using a parametric model may heavily depend on the chosen model for regression and variance functions, moreover also on a possibly underlying preliminary transformation of the variables. In this paper we propose and discuss a complex procedure which consists in a simultaneous selection of parametric regression and variance models from a relatively rich model class and of Box-Cox variable transformations by minimization of a cross-validation criterion. For this it is essential to introduce modifications of the standard cross-validation criterion adapted to each of the following objectives: 1. estimation of the unknown regression function, 2. prediction of future values of the response variable, 3. calibration or 4. estimation of some parameter with a certain meaning in the corresponding field of application. Our idea of a criterion oriented combination of procedures (which usually if applied, then in an independent or sequential way) is expected to lead to more accurate results. We show how the accuracy of the parameter estimators can be assessed by a “moment oriented bootstrap procedure", which is an essential modification of the “wild bootstrap” of Härdle and Mammen by use of more accurate variance estimates. This new procedure and its refinement by a bootstrap based pivot (“double bootstrap”) is also used for the construction of confidence, prediction and calibration intervals. Programs written in Splus which realize our strategy for nonlinear regression modelling and parameter estimation are described as well. The performance of the selected model is discussed, and the behaviour of the procedures is illustrated, e.g., by an application in radioimmunological assay.     

Nonparametric regression with additional measurement errors in the dependent variable

Estimation of a regression function from data which consists of an independent and identically distributed sample of the underlying distribution with additional measurement errors in the dependent variable is considered. It is allowed that the measurement errors are not independent and have nonzero mean. It is shown that the rate of convergence of least-squares estimates applied to this data is similar to the rate of convergence of least-squares estimates applied to an independent and identically distributed sample of the underlying distribution as long as the measurement errors are small. As an application, estimation of conditional variance functions from residuals is considered.