Efficiency of split questionnaire surveys

We consider a general design that allows information for different patterns, or sets, of data items to be collected from different sample units, which we call a Split Questionnaire Design (SQD). While SQDs have been historically used to accommodate constraints on respondent burden, this paper shows they can also be an efficient design option. The efficiency of a design can be measured by the cost required to meet constraints on the accuracy of estimates. Moreover, this paper shows how an SQD provides considerable flexibility when exploring the balance between the design's efficiency and the burden it places on respondents. The targets of interest to the design are analytic parameters, such as regression coefficients. Empirical results show that SQDs are worthwhile considering.     

Influence Functions for Sliced Inverse Regression

Abstract.  Sliced inverse regression (SIR) is a dimension reduction technique that is both efficient and simple to implement. The procedure itself relies heavily on estimates that are known to be highly non-robust and, as such, the issue of robustness is often raised. This paper looks at the robustness of SIR by deriving and plotting the influence function for a variety of contamination structures. The sample influence function is also considered and used to highlight that common outlier detection and deletion methods may not be entirely useful to SIR. The asymptotic variance of the estimates is also derived for the single index model when the explanatory variable is known to be normally distributed. The asymptotic variance is then compared for varying choices of the number of slices for a simple model example.     

Bayesian parameter inference for stochastic SIR epidemic model with hyperbolic diffusion

This paper is concerned with the Bayesian estimation parameters of the stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Removed) epidemic model from the trajectory data. Specifically, the data from the count of both infectives and susceptibles is assumed to be available on some time grid as the epidemic progresses. The diffusion approximation of the appropriate jump process is then used to estimate missing data between every pair of observation times. If the time step of imputations is small enough, we derive the posterior distributions of the infection and recovery rates using the Milstein scheme. The paper also presents Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation that demonstrates that the method provides accurate estimates, as illustrated by the synthetic data from SIR epidemic model and the real data.     

The internal relocation premium: are migrants positively or negatively selected? Evidence from Italy

This paper analyzes the wage returns from internal migration for recent graduates in Italy. We employ a switching regression model that accounts for the endogeneity of the individual's choice to relocate to get a job after graduation: the omission of this selection decision can lead to biased estimates, as there is potential correlation between earnings and unobserved traits, exerting an influence on the decision to migrate. The empirical results sustain the appropriateness of the estimation technique and show that there is a significant pay gap between migrants and non-migrants; migrants seem to be positively selected and the migration premium is downward biased through OLS estimates. The endogeneity of migration shows up both as a negative intercept effect and as a positive slope effect, the second being larger than the first: bad knowledge of the local labor market and financial constraints lead migrants to accept a low basic wage but, due to relevant returns to their characteristics, they finally obtain a higher wage than the others.     

Sample size calculation for method validation using linear regression

In this article, we present a method for sample size calculation for studies involving both the intercept and slope parameters of a simple linear regression model. Some methods have been proposed in the literature to determine the adequate sample size. However, they are usually based on the line slope only. We propose a method based on the F statistic that involves both the intercept and the slope parameters of the model. The validation process is conducted by fitting a simple linear regression model and by testing a zero intercept and unity slope hypothesis. Compared to a traditional method and using Monte Carlo simulations, encouraging results attest for the clear superiority of the proposed method. The article ends with a real-life example showing the value of the new method in practice.     

Random sliced inverse regression

Sliced Inverse Regression (SIR; 1991) is a dimension reduction method for reducing the dimension of the predictors without losing regression information. The implementation of SIR requires inverting the covariance matrix of the predictors—which has hindered its use to analyze high-dimensional data where the number of predictors exceed the sample size. We propose random sliced inverse regression (rSIR) by applying SIR to many bootstrap samples, each using a subset of randomly selected candidate predictors. The final rSIR estimate is obtained by aggregating these estimates. A simple variable selection procedure is also proposed using these bootstrap estimates. The performance of the proposed estimates is studied via extensive simulation. Application to a dataset concerning myocardial perfusion diagnosis from cardiac Single Proton Emission Computed Tomography (SPECT) images is presented.     

Method of Moments Estimation in Linear Regression with Errors in both Variables

Recently, in this journal, there has been revised attention on estimating the parameters of the errors in variables, linear structural model. For example, O’Driscoll and Ramirez (2011) used a geometric approach to give insight into the performance of various slope estimators for the linear structural model as introduced by the present author. This article aims to provide a unified method of moments approach for estimating the parameters in the linear structural model, concentrating attention on estimators using the higher moments, which to date has received only little attention in the literature.     

Bandwidth selection in pre-smoothed particle filters

For the purpose of maximum likelihood estimation of static parameters, we apply a kernel smoother to the particles in the standard SIR filter for non-linear state space models with additive Gaussian observation noise. This reduces the Monte Carlo error in the estimates of both the posterior density of the states and the marginal density of the observation at each time point. We correct for variance inflation in the smoother, which together with the use of Gaussian kernels, results in a Gaussian (Kalman) update when the amount of smoothing turns to infinity. We propose and study of a criterion for choosing the optimal bandwidth h in the kernel smoother. Finally, we illustrate our approach using examples from econometrics. Our filter is shown to be highly suited for dynamic models with high signal-to-noise ratio, for which the SIR filter has problems.     

Regression modelling of the flows in an input–output table with accounting constraints

This paper details a method for estimating the unknown parameters of a regression model when the estimates of the dependent variable should be embedded in an input–output table with accounting constraints. Since in regression modelling the dependent variable is usually transformed either to achieve homoscedasticity of the residuals or for a better interpretation of the model, the estimating procedure becomes an optimization problem of an opportunely defined Lagrangian function with non-linear constraints. After detailing the algorithm and deriving the asymptotic distribution of the restricted estimator, the methodology is applied to estimate the flows of tourism within and between Italian regions with a gravity model. The procedure can be seen as an extension of Byron’s (J R Stat Soc Ser A 141:359–367, 1978) balancing method.     

Quasi‐Symmetric Graphical Log‐Linear Models

Abstract. We propose an extension of graphical log‐linear models to allow for symmetry constraints on some interaction parameters that represent homologous factors. The conditional independence structure of such quasi‐symmetric (QS) graphical models is described by an undirected graph with coloured edges, in which a particular colour corresponds to a set of equality constraints on a set of parameters. Unlike standard QS models, the proposed models apply with contingency tables for which only some variables or sets of the variables have the same categories. We study the graphical properties of such models, including conditions for decomposition of model parameters and of maximum likelihood estimates.     

Effect of assay measurement error on parameter estimation in concentration–QTc interval modeling

Linear mixed‐effects models (LMEMs) of concentration–double‐delta QTc intervals (QTc intervals corrected for placebo and baseline effects) assume that the concentration measurement error is negligible, which is an incorrect assumption. Previous studies have shown in linear models that independent variable error can attenuate the slope estimate with a corresponding increase in the intercept. Monte Carlo simulation was used to examine the impact of assay measurement error (AME) on the parameter estimates of an LMEM and nonlinear MEM (NMEM) concentration–ddQTc interval model from a ‘typical’ thorough QT study. For the LMEM, the type I error rate was unaffected by assay measurement error. Significant slope attenuation ( > 10%) occurred when the AME exceeded > 40% independent of the sample size. Increasing AME also decreased the between‐subject variance of the slope, increased the residual variance, and had no effect on the between‐subject variance of the intercept. For a typical analytical assay having an assay measurement error of less than 15%, the relative bias in the estimates of the model parameters and variance components was less than 15% in all cases. The NMEM appeared to be more robust to AME error as most parameters were unaffected by measurement error. Monte Carlo simulation was then used to determine whether the simulation–extrapolation method of parameter bias correction could be applied to cases of large AME in LMEMs. For analytical assays with large AME ( > 30%), the simulation–extrapolation method could correct biased model parameter estimates to near‐unbiased levels. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Functional sliced inverse regression analysis

Most of the usual multivariate methods have been extended to the context of functional data analysis. Our contribution concerns the study of sliced inverse regression (SIR) when the response variable is real but the regressor is a function. In the first part, we show how the relevant properties of SIR remain essentially the same in the functional context under suitable conditions. Unfortunately, the estimation procedure used in the multivariate case cannot be directly transposed to the functional one. Then, we propose a solution that overcomes this difficulty and we show the consistency of the estimates of the parameters of the model.     

Allowing for non-ignorable non-response in the analysis of voting intention data

We apply some log-linear modelling methods, which have been proposed for treating non-ignorable non-response, to some data on voting intention from the British General Election Survey. We find that, although some non-ignorable non-response models fit the data very well, they may generate implausible point estimates and predictions. Some explanation is provided for the extreme behaviour of the maximum likelihood estimates for the most parsimonious model. We conclude that point estimates for such models must be treated with great caution. To allow for the uncertainty about the non-response mechanism we explore the use of profile likelihood inference and find the likelihood surfaces to be very flat and the interval estimates to be very wide. To reduce the width of these intervals we propose constraining confidence regions to values where the parameters governing the non-response mechanism are plausible and study the effect of such constraints on inference. We find that the widths of these intervals are reduced but remain wide.     

Alternative transformations to eliminate fixed effects

In a panel data model with fixed individual effects, a number of alternative transformations are available to eliminate these effects such that the slope parameters can be estimated from ordinary least squares on transformed data. In this note we show that each transformation leads to algebraically the same estimator if the transformed data are used efficiently (i.e. if GLS is applied). If OLS is used, however, differences may occur and the routinely computed variances, even after degrees of freedom correction, are incorrect. In addition, it may matter whether “redundant” observations are used or not.     

Dependence Estimation for Marginal Models of Multivariate Survival Data

We have previously(Segal and Neuhaus, 1993) devised methods for obtaining marginal regression coefficients and associated variance estimates for multivariate survival data, using a synthesis of the Poisson regression formulation for univariate censored survival analysis and generalized estimating equations (GEE's). The method is parametric in that a baseline survival distribution is specified. Analogous semiparametric models, with unspecified baseline survival, have also been developed (Wei, Lin and Weissfeld, 1989; Lin, 1994).Common to both these approaches is the provision of robust variances for the regression parameters. However, none of this work has addressed the more difficult area of dependence estimation. While GEE approaches ostensibly provide such estimates, we show that there are problems adopting these with multivariate survival data. Further, we demonstrate that these problems can affect estimation of the regression coefficients themselves. An alternate, ad hoc approach to dependence estimation, based on design effects, is proposed and evaluated via simulation and illustrative examples. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Mixture experiments with mixing errors

In mixture experiments the properties of mixtures are usually studied by mixing the amounts of the mixture components that are required to obtain the necessary proportions. This paper considers the impact of inaccuracies in discharging the required amounts of the mixture components on the statistical analysis of the data. It shows how the regression calibration approach can be used to minimize the resulting bias in the model and in the estimates of the model parameters, as well as to find correct estimates of the corresponding variances. Its application is made difficult by the complex structure of these errors. We also show how knowledge of the form of the model bias allows for choosing a manufacturing setting for a mixture product that is not biased and has smaller signal to noise ratio.     

Gaussian Regularized Sliced Inverse Regression

Sliced Inverse Regression (SIR) is an effective method for dimension reduction in high-dimensional regression problems. The original method, however, requires the inversion of the predictors covariance matrix. In case of collinearity between these predictors or small sample sizes compared to the dimension, the inversion is not possible and a regularization technique has to be used. Our approach is based on a Fisher Lecture given by R.D. Cook where it is shown that SIR axes can be interpreted as solutions of an inverse regression problem. We propose to introduce a Gaussian prior distribution on the unknown parameters of the inverse regression problem in order to regularize their estimation. We show that some existing SIR regularizations can enter our framework, which permits a global understanding of these methods. Three new priors are proposed leading to new regularizations of the SIR method. A comparison on simulated data as well as an application to the estimation of Mars surface physical properties from hyperspectral images are provided.     

Issues in Fitting Inverse Gaussian First Hitting Time Regression Models for Lifetime Data

Inverse Gaussian first hitting time regression models sometimes provide an attractive representation of lifetime data. Various authors comment that dependence of both parameters on the same covariate may imply multicollinearity. The frequent appearance of conflicting signs for the two coefficients of the same covariate may be related to this. We carry out simulation studies to examine the reality of this possible multicollinearity. Although there is some dependence between estimates, multicollinearity does not seem to be a major problem. Fitting this model to data generated by a Weibull regression suggests that conflicting signs of estimates may be due to model misspecification.     

Errors-in-variables estimation with wavelets

This paper proposes a wavelet (spectral) approach to estimate the parameters of a linear regression model where the regressand and the regressors are persistent processes and contain a measurement error. We propose a wavelet filtering approach which does not require instruments and yields unbiased estimates for the intercept and the slope parameters. Our Monte Carlo results also show that the wavelet approach is particularly effective when measurement errors for the regressand and the regressor are serially correlated. With this paper, we hope to bring a fresh perspective and stimulate further theoretical research in this area.